Worth waiting for Apple silicon or upgrade now?

[iliria]

I'm currently using a MBP 13" retina and looking to upgrade to a 16" soon. I am wondering if I should upgrade now or whether it is worth waiting for the second or third gen Apple silicon powered ones? I say second gen because the first gen will be the experimental one.

I know that Intel has been having quality problems with their i5 processors but does that extend to the i7 or i9?

Also with Apple moving to ther own silicon chips will the intel Macs become obsolete quicker? Or will they last for at least 10 years or so?

 

[Realityck]

I'm currently using a MBP 13" retina and looking to upgrade to a 16" soon. I am wondering if I should upgrade now or whether it is worth waiting for the second or third gen Apple silicon powered ones? I say second gen because the first gen will be the experimental one.

I know that Intel has been having quality problems with their i5 processors but does that extend to the i7 or i9?

Also with Apple moving to ther own silicon chips will the intel Macs become obsolete quicker? Or will they last for at least 10 years or so?

Quality issues with what's shipping no. I not read that. Lots here have recent Apple 16" laptops.

Apple Silicon has no track record, other then ARM devices inside phones/tablets and the development kit in a Mac mini to Devs they paid $500 to utilize. We all are waiting to behold what Apple offers.

Second and Third generation is a few years out as the first Apple Silicon computers are 2021 to 2022. You really wanting to wait beyond that for what you utilize? IMHO the first gen should be solid enough, its more of a question of can it run what you utilize, and offer you the performance you want with a new Apple Silicon ARM Mac Book Pro design?

I always recommend buying known entries.

 

[nothingtoseehere]

Also with Apple moving to ther own silicon chips will the intel Macs become obsolete quicker? Or will they last for at least 10 years or so?

Depends on how one counts. In Apple's universe, "obsolete" means officially that the product has not been sold for 7 years. Don't think that will change with the transition. Then there is the de-facto-obsolete, meaning that a certain Mac does not longer get the next iteration of MacOS, staying with the previous version that will run out of support.

At the moment, there is something like a up-to-ten-years phase of support: MacOS Big Sur runs officially on Macs as old as 2013. Given that in recent years every new MacOS got updates for three years, Big Sur (11.0), starting 2020, will be phased out 2023. Therefore, several then 10 years old devices still got updates.

But this is no guarantee that every device will get ten years after purchase. For example, the last non-retina MBP has been on sale until 2016. As it does not run Big Sur, its last official MacOS is Catalina to be phased out in 2022. This would be six years after the last purchase (but ten since its release in 2012).

All this under the assumption that Apple sticks with its current time frames which we do not know

What could that mean for the 16" MBP? It rather definitively will be on sale until 2021, maybe until 2022. Last Intel Macs are expected to be sold until 2022. Therefore, the odds are good that MacOS support will reach until 2027/28. If you buy today, it is a reasonable assumption that you will get seven to eight years. (And the machine will not brick afterwards immediately.)

 

[dinobear]

Back in 2005 I bought a Powermac dual G5. They started transitioning to Intel in 2006. It actually didnt bother me at all. I used that G5 hard until 2009 and then in 2010 I got an Intel i5 Macbook Pro. It was nice skipping over the Core Duo and Core2Duo generations of macbook pros and upgrade right to the i series chips!

I'll also add, I used my G5 for working at home. Used it hard for 5 full years. Never had an issue where I felt like I needed to upgrade my software. And never had any issues where I coulnt get software that I needed. I litterally couldnt even tell I was "missing" anything from the switch to Intel.

I plan to go a similar route on this transition. I ordered a 16" Macbook pro that will arrive next week. 64GB ram, 5600m graphics, 2TB SDD. It will last me a while for sure

I think the new macbook pros will have a while to catch up to the 16" with the 5600m, so if you can utilize that power it would be worth getting now instead of waiting a couple years. If you dont need the power, the 14" released next year will probaby be as powerful as the baseline macbook pro, probably...

It's an unknown variable right now though. It's also unknown as to when exactly the new macbooks will be released. If the 13" is released first with ARM, you're probably going to making a new post here asking if you should wait for the 14" upgrade. And once the 14" upgrade is released you'll make a new post here asking if you should wait for the second-gen version. I'd get a 16" now, and then upgrade when the whole line is finished and matured and you can make the best decision based on facts.

 

[iliria]

Well, it looks like if I got a 16" MBP with top specs now then it will certainly last me for a good 10 years which I would be hapy with. I just didnt want to spend nearly £3k on a laptop for ti to become obsolete within 5 or so years. But it sounds like that is not going to be the case. Thank you guys. ?

 

[jerryk]

I am not sure it is wise to upgrade now if you are concerned with it not becoming obsolete in 5 years. And if you do buy I definitely cannot see spending a lot of money to buy a top-spec 16" MBP.

I say this as a 16" MBP owner knowing that things are changing, but not knowing how big that change is and its impact.

 

[dinobear]

I am not sure it is wise to upgrade now if you are concerned with it not becoming obsolete in 5 years. And if you do buy I definitely cannot see spending a lot of money to buy a top-spec 16" MBP.

I say this as a 16" MBP owner knowing that things are changing, but not knowing how big that change is and its impact.

I get your stance on it. For me, if I was getting a low spec 16" I'd be more tempted to wait for the 14" ARM.

Since I use my computer to make my living, I also like knowing I'll have all my apps without any interfierence on waiting for updates from developers.

 

[Yebubbleman]

I'm currently using a MBP 13" retina and looking to upgrade to a 16" soon. I am wondering if I should upgrade now or whether it is worth waiting for the second or third gen Apple silicon powered ones? I say second gen because the first gen will be the experimental one.

I know that Intel has been having quality problems with their i5 processors but does that extend to the i7 or i9?

Also with Apple moving to ther own silicon chips will the intel Macs become obsolete quicker? Or will they last for at least 10 years or so?

If you were considering getting another 13" MacBook Pro, my advice would be to wait for the Apple Silicon version to release, with the only exception to it being a specific need for the Intel (i.e. Boot Camp or virtualization of Intel versions of macOS or of x86 versions of Windows and Linux), as that Mac is rumored to make the jump very soon and much sooner than the 16" MacBook Pro.

Seeing as you're looking at the 16" MacBook Pro, my advice is different. I might buy now (with my only caveat being that Apple may still give us one last Intel based update for it later this year). By the time you're ready to look at a newer Mac (which will still likely be earlier than Apple dropping support for it), the Apple Silicon successor to the 16" MacBook Pro will have matured. Typically, there is a higher risk of getting bitten by early generation bugs on the higher-end Macs than there is on the lower-end Macs.

The other thing to consider is that the 16" MacBook Pro isn't rumored to make the jump to Apple Silicon until the second half of 2021; so you'd be waiting a while. Again, the 13" MacBook Pro is rumored to be making the jump within the next couple of months.

 

[motomotomoto]

Any computer you get will be long in the tooth in 5 years and obsolete in 10 and that includes the new AS Macs. My advice is always to get a new computer if you need it now, but if your computer is working well enough at the moment, just let it slide a little longer. The next generation is always faster / better / more bang for your buck etc...

For me the tipping point is almost always when the old one starts hitting a wall for work with rendering speeds, CPU bottlenecks, etc... that’s when I know it’s time for a new one.

 

[DesertNomad]

I am not sure it is wise to upgrade now if you are concerned with it not becoming obsolete in 5 years. And if you do buy I definitely cannot see spending a lot of money to buy a top-spec 16" MBP.

I say this as a 16" MBP owner knowing that things are changing, but not knowing how big that change is and its impact.

I disagree. I don't think I'd want a 1st Gen 16" ARM and just ordered a 16" 2.4GHz/64GB/4TB/5600M. I expect that will last me quite a long time and when I move to an ARM it will become a good Intel test machine (I am a software developer).

 

[LeeW]

100m+ macOS owners today, all of them using intel based machines that will need to be supported for a long time to come. The majority of people are not going to jump on ARM they will upgrade when they need to so Apple will need to support them for a long time therefore you should not be concerned about support in years to come.

The only caveat I would suggest is that Apple is now fully committed to ARM, it's the way forward. So fully expect to find in say 2 years time that an ARM-based version of macOS will have 'features' that they won't put into your intel based macOS.

They will maintain intel customers but they won't develop for them. All the focus will shift to ARM and products designed for it. And by doing this they will make you feel like you have to upgrade to ARM in the future or lose out.

 

[jerryk]

100m+ macOS owners today, all of them using intel based machines that will need to be supported for a long time to come. The majority of people are not going to jump on ARM they will upgrade when they need to so Apple will need to support them for a long time therefore you should not be concerned about support in years to come.

The only caveat I would suggest is that Apple is now fully committed to ARM, it's the way forward. So fully expect to find in say 2 years time that an ARM-based version of macOS will have 'features' that they won't put into your intel based macOS.

They will maintain intel customers but they won't develop for them. All the focus will shift to ARM and products designed for it. And by doing this they will make you feel like you have to upgrade to ARM in the future or lose out.

I agree. I remember Apple's last transition. The people with the older machines were supported, but there was no doubt they were a second priority.

As a developer, I know how this works. No developer's ego will let them be happy staying on the Intel support team for any length of time. Everyone wants to develop for the new platform and use the new features.

 

[jerryk]

I disagree. I don't think I'd want a 1st Gen 16" ARM and just ordered a 16" 2.4GHz/64GB/4TB/5600M. I expect that will last me quite a long time and when I move to an ARM it will become a good Intel test machine (I am a software developer).

I don't want a 16" ARM either. But, more because I find my 16" too big. I use my 13" more, but the screen is a little small for my aging eyes. I will get the 14" ARM when it appears. A good compromise in portability and screen size for me. Large enough to code all day, but compact. Also, I want to get experience with developing for AS.

As for Windows, I have a Windows/Linux desktop with 27 inch monitors. Under $1300 invested with RTX 2070, 64 GB of RAM and 2 TB SSD. Great for ML/AI. And also runs FS2020 at high fidelity settings for coding breaks.

 

[DesertNomad]

I don't want a 16" ARM either. But, more because I find my 16" too big. I use my 13" more, but the screen is a little small for my aging eyes. I will get the 14" ARM when it appears. A good compromise in portability and screen size for me. Large enough to code all day, but compact. Also, I want to get experience with developing for AS.

I have my 2014 MBP 15" hooked to 27" and 30" displays and will do the same with the 16". I have not found it too big for most travel unless I am going on a backpacking-type trip somewhere and take a 13" or Air.

 

[Curtterp]

I'm currently using a MBP 13" retina and looking to upgrade to a 16" soon. I am wondering if I should upgrade now or whether it is worth waiting for the second or third gen Apple silicon powered ones? I say second gen because the first gen will be the experimental one.

I know that Intel has been having quality problems with their i5 processors but does that extend to the i7 or i9?

Also with Apple moving to ther own silicon chips will the intel Macs become obsolete quicker? Or will they last for at least 10 years or so?

If you have the money to move to a MBP 16" now, I would suggest going for it. I bought the 16" last year, and never regretted the decision. It is my main computer for work and home, and it works just fine. I am not worried about support for it when the Apple Silicon comes out.

My only worry about Apple Silicon is will vmware run on it. I use virtual machines for work, so it is important that vmware will update their software to work with Apple Silicon. So I will keep my 16" MBP for a while and not worry about support for it for years.

These opinions are mine alone. Your mileage may/will vary

 

[jerryk]

I have my 2014 MBP 15" hooked to 27" and 30" displays and will do the same with the 16". I have not found it too big for most travel unless I am going on a backpacking-type trip somewhere and take a 13" or Air.

Read up on the heating issues with the 16" and external monitors, the noise can be pretty high. My 2015 15" was better than my 16" about this.

 

[DesertNomad]

Read up on the heating issues with the 16" and external monitors, the noise can be pretty high. My 2015 15" was better than my 16" about this.

I have and that's why I bought the 5600M graphics card.

 

[LeeW]

My only worry about Apple Silicon is will vmware run on it. I use virtual machines for work, so it is important that vmware will update their software to work with Apple Silicon. So I will keep my 16" MBP for a while and not worry about support for it for years.

This is really the main question people need to ask themselves. If the machine you have or could buy today will ensure you can continue to do what you do, then buy. Don't wait for something that is coming which may not work with the workflow you need today, or will take time before it is on par.

 

[Curtterp]

This is really the main question people need to ask themselves. If the machine you have or could buy today will ensure you can continue to do what you do, then buy. Don't wait for something that is coming which may not work with the workflow you need today, or will take time before it is on par.

To be truthfull, I was hoping that the Time Flies event would introduce the first Apple Silicon Macbook. I have heard rumors that Apple will revive the MacBook for the first Apple Silicon, and when it comes out, I want to get it as a test bed for playing around with. But, no announcement yet. Hopefully when they do the iPhone event next month?

 

[LeeW]

Hopefully when they do the iPhone event next month?

I think that is the expectation, at least that they announce the 1st device, either bringing back the 12", MBA, or even 14" with ARM, time will tell. Had it not been for COVID I am sure we would already have them.

 

[Woochoo]

My honest opinion is: if anyhting is experimental it will be mostly software and compatibilities which will get ironed as they arise. And considering the Macbook Pro's (specially 16") will come months later in April or mid next year, they have plenty of time to solve most of them.

What I mean is of course they can mess up the thermal management (can't be worse than with the i9's tho) or some "small issue" like screen peeling like it already happened, but Apple already knows how to use their SoCs, they have been doing that for years and if something new Intel/AMD Graphics would be more problematic rather than their own SoCs.

 

[StickyNote]

One thing very important that I've heard only few time about this topic:
covid-19 may impact (as already did) the mass production and thus postponing or slowing it.
Don't count too much on potential dates or rumors for shipping time. Anything could happen now and disrupt (again) China's manufacturers.

I myself am in the middle of this hard decision. I hate the heating of my 2015 MBP13 retina, and would love to jump on lighter and freshest MBP, but:
- nobody can tell me the exact date
- nobody can tell me if 12 or 13 or 14, as for now
- nobody is sure I will be able to run my much needed VM's or VPN clients from the unboxing
- nobody knows the price
- nobody can promise me it won't be a new "butterfly keyboard"

What we know is:
- there will be Mac with intel on sale up to 2022, thus supporting cannot stop suddenly. Development will last until then, for sure
- current Intel set is stable, reliable and solid
- we know prices and sometimes special offers
- there's a huge amount of intel mac out there, and with the global economy slowing down it would be crazy to try to force all them to move faster then they can with transitioning to ARM - may actually results in a big loss of customer base

Although may seems a waste to buy something now that is going to be refresh anytime soon, the real question is between the known vs the unknown. And if you think about how this 2020 went, what where your goal and thoughts and mood back in january, you can see that **** happens and a lot!

 

[drewyboy]

For general home use I'm still rocking my base 13" mid 2012 MBP. It's survived a tumble down the stairs, and I've only upgraded the original HDD to an SSD. Still only 4GB of RAM. Could it be faster, sure but for what I, a general home user, wants from it, it's done phenomenal. I even edit on FCPX once in awhile. I'm just going to wait till next summer and see what's going on and do a possible upgrade, but honestly, I'll probably use my current MBP until is starts to show that it's not up to the task. Oh, and battery life on the original battery isn't that great but I still get about 60 minutes of browsing out of it.

 

[Chozes]

Yes Drewboy, that is the issue with Intel. Hardly anything changed for a good number of years. So you have loads of people thinking their laptop aged well.

Beating Intel wont be an issue for Apple. Ryzen for example is already miles ahead. The rather basic ultrabook Ryzen 4700U CPU has no problem outdoing the Intel i7 CPU for the Macbook Pro 16(and other premium laptops). Likely in every single way.

Apple are going to be giving big percentages on the announcement. Some triple digit ones too. Maybe a 4 digit for fun!

 

[maclove2020]

I would wait !