Would ARM switch mean lack of Intel support in 4 years?

[cocoua]

as it hapend with the Intel switch?

Hi, I'm upgrading my Mac in a 6-8 year basis, I use to buy the high end Macbook Pro model, in order to get more out of my money and the best of the tech at that moment. I don't earn so much money to upgrade it sooner than 6-8 years.
I'm reaching the 8 years cycle, but ARM shift news scare me, as Apple makes this moves fast, and the Intel transition last for 4 years (2005 announced, 2009 last version OSX support for PowerPC- Snow Leopard).
If this transition is similar, actual Intel Macs would last 4 years until last update, not so bad for pro users who uses their macs at 100% every day, but hard to justify for me to buy a top one.

My actual mac is a 2012 retina MBP 15" with 512GB SSD and 16GB RAM, I use mainly After Effects and Lightroom, so my next Mac should be and upgrade in every sense, this means at least 32GB RAM and 1GB SSD, I'm looking on iMac as the GPU is a bit better and not need a portable anymore. But this is about 3800€, and this means to me I would need to use this machine for at least 8 years.

I'm worried in 4 years I couldn't upgrade it anymore.

Any advice or thoughts on ARM switch?


thanks

 

[MacGizmo]

You can't upgrade anything later on the iMac other than the RAM anyway (on the 27" only). The rest of it has to be upgraded at the time of purchase.

ARM has nothing to do with it. It's not like existing machines will stop working just because they make a processor change.

I generally keep my Macs around 6 years as well... no issues, regardless of processor type.

 

[InuNacho]

Have you thought about the classic Mac Pro as a stopgap? They're at rock bottom prices right now and cap out at Mojave but this may help you coast a little while deciding which route to take.
I myself use my Macs for 6-8 years as well and am looking to get another year or two out of my Mac Pro and cMBP in my signature before upgrading to a Mini with an eGPU and maybe the new Air.

 

[cocoua]

Hi thanks both

my fear is about buying a Mac Intel, not about the model, as to me upgrading RAM or GPU is not as important as not having to change the whole hardware because Photoshop or my software is not longer supported (because the ARM move and lack of support on Intel machines in 4 years)

I was able to hold on Sierra until last year, when I was forced to upgrade to Mojave because software issues and upgrade soft needs, so this is my concern, if we are forced to upgrade OSX in time to time, and if OSX upgrades for Intel would be 8 years proof…

I know this can sound a bit "man buy another mac in 3 years and problem solved" but to me is an important investment.

 

[InuNacho]

No I understand your sentiment completely. The PPC to Intel transition was not as smooth as people like to say it was. A lot of system resources went to emulating PPC code and more finely tuned applications like the Adobe suite took a massive hit.

You mentioned AE and LR as your main heavy hitters. I have essentially the same MBP as you in my studio hooked up to a 30 inch monitor and I will agree that it's graphics prowess isn't exactly the best anymore. It's got plenty of raw processing power still.

Have you considered a refurb/used Mini with an eGPU?

 

[cocoua]

The mini option could be worth to think about

 

[InuNacho]

If your CPU needs haven't changed but the GPU needs have, you could go for a base mini and keep the eGPU for the ARM Mini in the future.

 

[cocoua]

If your CPU needs haven't changed but the GPU needs have, you could go for a base mini and keep the eGPU for the ARM Mini in the future.

Thing is AE works with single core, so faster the best, top iMac with core i9 is among the fastest machine for AE, which doesn't care about the 24 cores in the Mac Pro same goes for toon Boom, which uses 2 cores, one for visuals other for audio, so clock speed is what I need.

In my tests, my 8 years old Macbook renders 10 min 4K with my presets in 45 minutes, the top iMac 2017 in 29 minutes, is something, but not too much to me to upgrade, as my projects use to be 20-30 minutes long and renders are always overnight, which means I dont care if they are 3 hours or 7, as any way, they aren't fast enough to make them on working hours.

So the mac mini option would need to be a fresh new one, now, if I'm upgrading, I want everything a bit better, I'm not buying a new machine to be same as before in some aspects, so RAM, SSD, GPU and CPU should be better, this means 32GB RAM, 1TB SSD and top CPU option, so Mac mini price rises to a very expensive cifer if you add the eGPU, well this is a no sense.
For same price you get decent dedicated GPU and a 5K screen buying the iMac.
Mac mini are very specific niche, casual user at the entry line, or very specific users at the top line

 

[theluggage]

I'm reaching the 8 years cycle, but ARM shift news scare me, as Apple makes this moves fast, and the Intel transition last for 4 years (2005 announced, 2009 last version OSX support for PowerPC- Snow Leopard).

Actually - Leopard (2007) was the last PowerPC release, and support for that ended in 2011 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_OS_X_Leopard) so if you'd got a PPC Mac in 2005 you'd have got 6 years of officially supported use out of it (and a Mac doesn't turn into a pumpkin the moment it is out of software support).

If Apple have any sense they'll take any theoretical ARM transition a bit more slowly than PPC-Intel: the G4/G5 chips were getting very stale and Intel offered a big potential step up in performance so there was a good incentive for change. ARM is more about offering the same performance for less power/heat/battery consumption, which could be a big step up at the Macbook Air end of the market but is going to be a harder sell for the pro models until Adobe et. al. optimise their products for it. (That said, all of Apple's range is thermally constrained - even the Mac Pro has quiet running as a selling point - and could benefit from ARM). It's pretty crucial that the start by getting their Intel range up to date and ship-shape so people aren't forced to switch to ARM too soon.

Also, they've just released the Mac Pro which they'll need to support for a decent interval.

There are all sorts of reasons why your >4 year-old Mac might not support the latest and greatest software - ARM is just one of them. Even if Apple don't switch to ARM it seems likely that they'll drop support for machines without the T2 chip as soon as they can get away with it (they just have to replace the current iMac first). If I were buying an iMac today, that would be my dilemma, not ARM.

I think decision time will be ~virtual WWDC this year - if the ARM rumours/timescales are true they'll need to announce a developer program of some sorts in advance, and that would be the obvious time.

 

[Falhófnir]

In terms of developer support? Depends on how Apple phases the transition. If it's a quick and dirty 12-18 month replacement of all MacBook Models with new Arm equivalents, yeah by year 4 I would certainly expect the vast majority of developer effort to be going into the new ecosystem with maybe cursory stability updates for x86 software on legacy systems.

If it's mostly done within 12-18 months, but there's a handful of systems (Mac Pro, iMac Pro, 16" MacBook Pro) that stay x86 based longer, then software developers mainly targeting those high end machines will probably still be supporting x86 software, most others will have moved on or maybe be supporting both.

If Arm Macs are introduced slowly alongside x86 Macs (as a new iBook line?) then I think x86 software will remain fully supported by year 4.

I think any way it goes, every x86 Mac released this year should still get the full 7 year MacOS cycle support from Apple, though. Even if the latter years are just security rather than feature updates (which might actually be beneficial if software is no longer updated by then and you want to preserve compatibility as long as possible).

 

[cocoua]

it seems likely that they'll drop support for machines without the T2 chip as soon as they can get away with it

I guess this would mean not Fusion drive option in iMacs (is time!!!)…

Also, they've just released the Mac Pro which they'll need to support for a decent interval.

this is my fear, in the studio at that time, we bought 4 PPC Quad G5 full equiped Apple released in 2005, this computers were our worst purchase ever, not just because their performance at that time was already in decadence vs Intel, but because software developers started at that time to develop just for X86, and their life span was poor…

Well, I guess is impossible to know see the future right now, and as you say, in June we'll get some clues.


thanks!!