Mmmmmm the process change is going to mean a considerable change in performance. Remember the process size is being nearly cut in half, which isn't going to go entirely to power savings. Both on the Nvidia side and AMD side. I wouldn't be surprised to see Polaris significantly outperform Fiji, and Pascal to significantly outperform Maxwell.
If you're looking at 2x performance per watt on both sides, either power usage goes down by half, or performance doubles. I'd expect both sides to put things right in the middle and put performance at about 1.5x. Normally the change would be more gradual, but both Nvidia and AMD stalled on getting to a smaller process, so it's going to be a sudden jump.
Good time for GPU fans!
Yeah, there comes pretty good time for GPU fans
.
About AMD, lets look at what AMD staff says about Polaris.
First things first: Efficiency.
OC3D said:
While talking to PCPER AMD's Joe Macri stated that they expect FinFET to bring a 50-60% drop in power consumption for the same performance or a 25-30% performance boost with the same power consumption
So we look at die shrink that brings 50% better power consumption. So a GPU that had 250W TDP will have 125W TDP, thats to shrink itself. But, there is another bit of information...
OC3D said:
Staff from the Radeon Technology Group did admit that the bulk of the efficiency improvements that we will see with AMD's newest GPUs will come from the so-called "FinFET Advantage", with
PCPER stating that is is "on the order of a 70/30 split".
So not only die shrink brings efficiency, but architecture itself. We are looking at 65% better efficiency overall for the GPUs. Lets think about it for a second. 200W R9 280X on 28 nm from TSMC, but with new architecture would draw around 170W at max. Without the shrink. After shrink it would be 85W, if we take 50% lower power consumption, and not account best case scenario.
Here is a link:
http://www.overclock3d.net/articles/gpu_displays/amd_has_two_polaris_gpus_coming_this_year/1
Now density:
https://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/3884-who-will-lead-10nm.html On the bottom there is table which shows that density ration between TSMC 28 and GloFo/Samsung 14 nm FF is not 2x. It is 2.2x. So the same R9 280X without advancements in architecture on 14nm would be... 144mm2 die(60% smaller die). And we do not know how will new architecture affect the die sizes, it can be optimized for it, from ground up, and it looks like that is the case.
Lets get back for a second to previous rumor about the die size of one of GPUs from AMD: 232mm2. If Fiji would be ported to 14 nm without any advancements in architecture it would be 250mm2 die. Coincidence? I may be wrong here, of course, but what better way to bring VR into much lower price/performance brackets than by bringing that kind of performance here?
Third thing: Performance. If Mahigan from Anandtech forum is right it looks like we might be pretty surprised with performance of Polaris GPUs.
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=38026437&postcount=357
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=38026062&postcount=355
I will not be surprised if my calculations and best case scenario are true, and we are looking at Titan X performance at a fraction of power consumption and cost.
Unfortunatelly I cannot bring anything for Pascal, because... there is no rumors. There is no silicon, we do not even know if the new arch from Nvidia will bring improved Asynchronous Compute(second engine) or even Hardware Scheduling. If the slides from Nvidia are true, and Pascal is only Maxwell on 14 nm with FP64 - the chances for both of them, which would make GIGANTIC difference, are almost null.