Other 2020 iPhone lineup

[MF878]

Yes, I’m gonna be that guy and post a “next year” thread two days after a launch, but the name of the site is MacRumors so...

So far it seems that a new design and 5G are definitely on the cards. Kuo says OLED panels in 5.4”, 6.1” and 6.7” sizes, and he has got display panels correct well in advance for three launches in a row now.

The iPhone and iPhone Pro naming scheme is likely here to stay, as it sheds the “budget” connotations of the base model.

Most people are assuming that the 6.1” OLED panel belongs to the XR/11 equivalent purely because it’s the same size, with the 5.4” and 6.7” panels replacing the current 5.8” and 6.5” Pros. I question this logic. The 5.8” XS was the least popular of the 2018 lineup, because most of the high-end market prefer larger phones, so going smaller is not the answer. I think it is more likely that 6.1” and 6.7” replace 5.8” and 6.5” as the new Pro lineup.

It should also be noted that 5.4”/5.5” is exactly what you get if you take the width of an old 4.7” iPhone and stretch it to the new aspect ratio. Because of this, I think it will be aimed at those still carrying 6/7/8’s and thus will be the new entry level. The lineup would then look something like this:

12 (5.4”) - $699
12 Pro (6.1”) - $999
12 Pro (6.7”) - $1099

This however raises the problem that in order to get a new iPhone in a 6”+ size (what the majority of the market wants these days), you need to spend $1k. Apple could combat this by offering the standard model in two sizes, which would also help to raise ASP amongst buyers of the standard model, helping to offset the potential added cost of moving to OLED. For example:

12 (5.4”) - $699
12 (6.1”) - $799
12 Pro (6.1”) - $999
12 Pro (6.7”) - $1099

This also makes the Pro upsell a little easier as the price gap doesn’t appear so large, without having to actually decrease the price of the Pro or raise the $699 entry price.

With both the 12 and 12 Pro expected to feature OLED displays, it is possible that ProMotion will be the new differentiating feature on displays. I also think the triple rear camera will remain Pro-only (adds cost, needs more RAM, and eats up internal space in a smaller 5.4” design). I don’t believe in-screen Touch ID is something Apple will bother with, and I can see the notch shrinking but not disappearing entirely. Reverse wireless charging and Pencil support were rumoured for this year but did not materialise.

Can’t think of anything else off the top of my head, so will open the floor...

 

[JPack]

No, because the 6.1" form factor is the de facto standard in China for budget phones. It came about in 2017 and quickly became the base size display in that region. Apple didn't pick 6.1" out of thin air, they adopted the form factor to better compete.

5.4" will be a low volume seller, so there's no way it will be an entry level device. That's not how Apple under Cook operates.

 

[ruslan120]

+ Rumored Apple-designed modem that will run the 5G
-> Power Efficiency / Battery Life
+ (maybe) Micro LED

I'm getting a little tired of OLED. It's leaps ahead of the standard displays, but the black-smearing is very noticeable. I would purchase an iPhone with micro LED + ProMotion in a heartbeat.

Edit:
+ Apple Pencil support (?)

 

[MF878]

No, because the 6.1" form factor is the de facto standard in China for budget phones. It came about in 2017 and quickly became the base size display in that region. Apple didn't pick 6.1" out of thin air, they adopted the form factor to better compete.

5.4" will be a low volume seller, so there's no way it will be an entry level device. That's not how Apple under Cook operates.

https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/02/apple-to-launch-three-oled-iphones-in-2020/

“Additionally, the 5.42-inch model to be released in 2020 may come with either Samsung Display's Y-Octa or LG Display's TOE touch technology, indicated the sources, noting that both touch solutions promises to trim down the display cost.“

I agree with you that the 6.1” size came about for a reason, but this would indicate that the smaller display isn’t meant to be high end if that’s where they are most concerned about cutting costs. That’s why I’ve suggested the possibility of a 6.1” model in both lines.
[doublepost=1568350533][/doublepost]

+ Rumored Apple-designed modem that will run the 5G
-> Power Efficiency / Battery Life
+ (maybe) Micro LED

I'm getting a little tired of OLED. It's leaps ahead of the standard displays, but the black-smearing is very noticeable. I would purchase an iPhone with micro LED + ProMotion in a heartbeat.

Edit:
+ Apple Pencil support (?)

I’d like to see mLED but I think next year will be too soon for the iPhone. I think Apple is likely to use it on the Watch first, where displays are smaller so production yield is easier to achieve.

 

[JPack]

https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/02/apple-to-launch-three-oled-iphones-in-2020/

“Additionally, the 5.42-inch model to be released in 2020 may come with either Samsung Display's Y-Octa or LG Display's TOE touch technology, indicated the sources, noting that both touch solutions promises to trim down the display cost.“

I agree with you that the 6.1” size came about for a reason, but this would indicate that the smaller display isn’t meant to be high end if that’s where they are most concerned about cutting costs. That’s why I’ve suggested the possibility of a 6.1” model in both lines.

Y-Octa and TOE are different names for on-cell touch. The technology offers reduced cost, but more importantly, it reduces the thickness of the display.

Why does Apple want a thinner display? What is Apple adding next year? Kuo says Apple is adding a ToF sensor to two of the three models. The sensor will consume even more internal volume, reducing the amount of available space for the battery.

Last year, we saw Apple move to a CGS process with iPhone XR to reduce thickness. In 2019, Apple transitioned the entire iPhone 11 OLED lineup to CGS. The result? Apple was able to add a much bigger battery. CGS reduced cost, but battery was the primary goal.

 

[pcmike]

The day the pro line goes over 5.8” is probably the day I give up on Apple. Not everyone wants a massive phone. The 5.8” pro is already pushing it... any bigger and it’s just not pocketable or easy to handle on the go!

 

[MF878]

The day the pro line goes over 5.8” is probably the day I give up on Apple. Not everyone wants a massive phone. The 5.8” pro is already pushing it... any bigger and it’s just not pocketable or easy to handle on the go!

Where would you go though? The regular S10 is 6.1”, LG G8 is 6.1”, Pixel 4 will be 5.7” but in a 6.1” chassis thanks to its bezels. No one puts flagship specs in phones smaller than 6” now. In fact, the closest you might be able to get to that is a 5.4” iPhone 12, because it’ll have the latest chip and OLED.

 

[pcmike]

I doubt they’re doing away with the 5.8” form factor. It’s not like it’s lacking in sales. I’m not the only one who hates large phones. There are still tons of people who think 5.8” is too big and stick with older model iPhones. It’s a phone, not a tablet!

 

[JPack]

The 5.8” XS was the least popular of the 2018 lineup, because most of the high-end market prefer larger phones, so going smaller is not the answer.

Going forward, the high-end will slowly include small phones.

What's Apple's biggest new product in 2020? It's not iPhone 5G.

When Apple Glasses is introduced, screen time on iPhone will decrease. Display size will become less important. The 5.4" iPhone will take the role of an expensive CPU and camera package. The main piece of glass people will look at? Apple Glasses.

 

[MF878]

Going forward, the high-end will slowly include small phones.

What's Apple's biggest new product in 2020? It's not iPhone 5G.

When Apple Glasses is introduced, screen time on iPhone will decrease. Display size will become less important. The 5.4" iPhone will take the role of an expensive CPU and camera package. The main piece of glass people will look at? Apple Glasses.

I don’t think Apple will be making iPhone size decisions based on a hypothetical trend that may occur as the result of the hypothetical success of a product that likely won’t be released before this round of iPhones.

 

[eulslix]

Dont think this will happen. Even you had to admit that your suggestion might need a workaround, which makes the whole lineup more complicated.

As of now, the whole lineup is very well positioned. You have the XR with the best value. Then you have the XS, the phone that kind of has everything, but not much more than the XR, so it doesn‘t seem a good deal for that price difference.
But if you spend that 100 more you can get that bigger screen that the XR doesnt have, making your purchase subjectively more worthwhile. This way, Apple can squeeze out the maximum amount of money out of you.
If you make the XR the smallest device, many people who bought the Max will just settle for the XS. I don’t think the max screen and the bigger battery cost Apple much more. I imagine they have the biggest profit margin on these max models.

 

[CrazyForCashews]

The 5.4" iPhone will be the goldilocks of iPhones. Not too big, not too small, just right. I'm sure this will be a hit for people who like smaller phones.

The alleged 2020 iPhone size lineup seems pretty logical.

Dont think this will happen. Even you had to admit that your suggestion might need a workaround, which makes the whole lineup more complicated.

As of now, the whole lineup is very well positioned. You have the XR with the best value. Then you have the XS, the phone that kind of has everything, but not much more than the XR, so it doesn‘t seem a good deal for that price difference.

The XS is discontinued and isn't sold anymore. The current lineup is 8, XR, 11, 11 Pro.

Next years lineup could be 8 (refreshed according to rumours), 12R (6.1"), 12 Pro (5.4"), 12 Pro Max (6.7").

 

[JPack]

I don’t think Apple will be making iPhone size decisions based on a hypothetical trend that may occur as the result of the hypothetical success of a product that likely won’t be released before this round of iPhones.

Apple already did that in 2010 when they released the iPad. Apple’s iPhone strategy assumed consumers would buy a small iPhone in combination with a big new iPad. They kept the iPhone small until 2014 when it was clear phablets were the future.

 

[azentropy]

It is going to be interesting, but I think (hope) the 5.4 will be a pro that they will price at $799 or $849. I think they will also release an 8 with upgraded internals and price that at $599 or $549.

 

[BradWI]

The XS is discontinued and isn't sold anymore. The current lineup is 8, XR, 11, 11 Pro.

Next years lineup could be 8 (refreshed according to rumours), 12R (6.1"), 12 Pro (5.4"), 12 Pro Max (6.7").

The XS isn’t being sold by Apple directly, but they are still making it for other retailers/carriers/countries. Same with the X and other older models.

 

[profets]

Interesting thoughts. I hadn’t thought about it much, but I’m curious how they’ll break down next year.

The 11 and Pro are really only differentiated by the additional telephoto camera and stainless steel + OLED vs aluminum + LCD. If the 11 replacement also goes OLED I wonder what else they’ll do to differentiate.

Maybe the 11 replacement gets the current Pro treatment (OLED, 3 cameras, etc) and the new Pro gets the redesign, smaller notch, thinner bezels..

 

[iPhone2019]

I´m hoping for a flat sided titanium frame, 120Hz Promotion and quantum dot color filters for the cameras!

 

[Falhófnir]

I can only assume it will follow the existing pattern:

6.1" 12 - $749 (inclusion of OLED reverses this year's price cut)
5.4" 12 Pro - $999
6.7" 12 Pro - $1099
accompanied by:
11 - $599
XR - $499 and/or '9' - $399 (refreshed 8 with A13)

Interesting thoughts. I hadn’t thought about it much, but I’m curious how they’ll break down next year.

The 11 and Pro are really only differentiated by the additional telephoto camera and stainless steel + OLED vs aluminum + LCD. If the 11 replacement also goes OLED I wonder what else they’ll do to differentiate.

Maybe the 11 replacement gets the current Pro treatment (OLED, 3 cameras, etc) and the new Pro gets the redesign, smaller notch, thinner bezels..

I'm guessing under screen touch ID will be limited to the Pros, while the '12' will get OLED it will be the same panel used for the X/XS just resized (no extra contrast/ dynamic range, 600 nits not 800), no 90Hz display if that's included in the Pros, it'll stick to a dual camera, probably no ToF 3D stuff, aluminium construction.

 

[JPack]

Interesting thoughts. I hadn’t thought about it much, but I’m curious how they’ll break down next year.

The 11 and Pro are really only differentiated by the additional telephoto camera and stainless steel + OLED vs aluminum + LCD. If the 11 replacement also goes OLED I wonder what else they’ll do to differentiate.

Maybe the 11 replacement gets the current Pro treatment (OLED, 3 cameras, etc) and the new Pro gets the redesign, smaller notch, thinner bezels..

ToF
PPI/refresh rate/nits
Pencil
RAM

There's a lot for Apple to choose from.

 

[Falhófnir]

ToF
PPI/refresh rate/nits
Pencil
RAM

There's a lot for Apple to choose from.

Doubt they'll lower PPI (or at least I hope they don't) pentile OLEDs look crappy even at 326ppi. It just barely looked ok by 2013 standards on the Nokia Lumia 925, it'd be a disaster on Apple's mainstream flagship in 2020. 450ppi is about where it starts looking good, the iPhone Xs screen specification is no accident...

 

[sammy2066]

Well, I'd say its too early to even begin speculating about next year's iPhones. Apple's naming convention has also been very erratic over the past few generations, so anything is fair play at this early moment in the game. My prediction is below:

1. They will switch back to roman numerals
2. They will find another alphabet in the English language for the low-end variant
3. They will bring back the S cadence
4. They shall switch up names again - Pro and Max will be replaced

The above may result in the following:

1. iPhone XI L S - L for low-end, S because it will simply keep the same design as the 11, add new colors, upgrade the SoC and add OIS to the other camera
2. iPhone XI S Xtreme - usual upgrades, will replace the iPhone 11 Pro
3. iPhone XI S Xtreme XL - same as above, will replace the iPhone 11 Pro Max

Cherry on top - all base models will get a $100 price cut, but starting capacity will be 32 GB. Next upgrade capacity will continue to be 256 GB, but for an extra $199.

Thanks for reading.

 

[JPack]

Doubt they'll lower PPI (or at least I hope they don't) pentile OLEDs look crappy even at 326ppi. It just barely looked ok by 2013 standards on the Nokia Lumia 925, it'd be a disaster on Apple's mainstream flagship in 2020. 450ppi is about where it starts looking good, the iPhone Xs screen specification is no accident...

Right now, the 6.1" model has only about 4.5M sub-pixels. An OLED display with low 400 PPI will yield about 5M sub-pixels.

Apple can also raise the 6.67" model to 472 PPI (e.g. 2860 x 1320).

 

[Apple_Robert]

I would buy a 5.4” phone next year. I don’t need a big phone since I have my iPad mini 5. I hope it happens. If not, I will keep using my Max and my SE.

 

[jongriff]

There is a market for smaller phones as well as for the increasingly larger variants. What if they were planning on doing 3 x sizes for 2 x tiers of phone? Essentially you’d have:

iPhone 12 mini (5.4”)
iPhone 12 (6.1”)
iPhone 12 Max (6.7”)

iPhone 12 Pro mini (5.4”)
iPhone 12 Pro (6.1”)
iPhone 12 Pro Max (6.7”)

In my mind this makes the lineup cleaner. You pick the size you want and then decide if you want to spend extra money on the premium tier.

 

[MF878]

There is a market for smaller phones as well as for the increasingly larger variants. What if they were planning on doing 3 x sizes for 2 x tiers of phone? Essentially you’d have:

iPhone 12 mini (5.4”)
iPhone 12 (6.1”)
iPhone 12 Max (6.7”)

iPhone 12 Pro mini (5.4”)
iPhone 12 Pro (6.1”)
iPhone 12 Pro Max (6.7”)

In my mind this makes the lineup cleaner. You pick the size you want and then decide if you want to spend extra money on the premium tier.

Apple isn’t about to go from three to six flagship phones. That’s a lot more SKU’s, and the demand for smaller phones doesn’t seem to be there to justify two 5.4” models. The most I can see happening is four (two sizes in standard and Pro), and I’m not even sure that’s likely, let alone six.