Bigger contract for wafers in 2H22 isn't necessarily bigger over the longer term into 2023-24.
Also not a "slam dunk" that these are high end laptop chips (or high end (i.e., large ) Xeon chips).
First, Intel posted a job about putting QAT into Atom and Xeon designs for both Intel and TSMC .
TSMC to produce next-generation Atom & Xeon SoCs for Intel
www.tomshardware.com
If Intel took Gracemont (or Tremont) and did a port to 3nm TSMC they would likely have something that would blunt the path Qualcomm was on before they bought Nuvia. Intel also had a major 2019-2020 FUBAR with planned solution for the 5g basestation chips. [ a follow on to the Atom C3000 and cousin of Xeon D ]
Aimed squarely at the 5G base station market, we discuss the Intel Atom P5900 series 10nm SoC and its integrated switch, Ethernet, Crypto, and other feature
www.servethehome.com
Like some other non super fin 10nm products that didn't roll out as well.
Intel also had TSMC graphics already in the pipeline for 2021 ( 6nm TSMC). Xe-HPG ( DG2 ) shrunk onto 3nm and some Gracemount cores would probably work fine coupled to a celluar modem at the lower end of the laptop spectrum. Not "ultimate gaming" or "pro" laptops but there are lots of folks who don't need those two solutions. ( Chromebooks, mobile Office worker laptops, etc. )
Likewise 10-20 , 3nm Gracemount cores (with no GPU or consumer modem ) would probably make for a better base station solution than what Intel has to compete with the ARM solutions.
It would be a faster track to move Gracemont (or a Gracemount+ with some update tweaks ) to a "foreign" process node than to move the bigger core than trying to move GoldenCove. 8-20 Gracemount cores plus a modest GPU probably could fall into 90-150mm2 die size range which would make for a decent "pipe cleaner" for 3nm also. (even more so if Intel uses packaging to put the PCH , I/O largely on another die. ).
In short, I suspect Intel isn't trying to do a "M1 killer" or "AMD Zen 4 max mobile killer" solutions here. ( or attacking AMD EPYC on the high end). 1-2 years ago the "plan" was probably that Intel would use their 7nm to 'attack' that stuff. Pretty good chance this narrow 3nm target mix was already in flight 10-18 months ago.
It is probably not 14nm -> 3nm, but 10nm (&6nm) -> 3nm that is the gap. If Intel wants to dominate the laptop dGPU space as they did with iGPUs they have work to do. Their consumer dGPU product is rolling out on TSMC 6nm. These Atom+(smallish GPU) could be very good pipe cleaners for later moving their bigger dGPU dies from 6nm -> 3nm.
Intel is in a ton of different battlefronts. They are highly unlikely to come back on all fronts soon. Some areas are going to take longer than others.
Where Intel's "everything for everybody" product line up overlaps with the M1 and "M1 bigger die " ( MBP 16" and larger iMac SoCs. ).will likely be a longer problem issue that won't get sorted with this initial 3nm TSMC products.
The major issue that Intel has to sort out is that making everything for everybody means that they are competing with half a dozen other major competitors. It is not just Apple and AMD. They need multiple different fab processes tuned for different markets to create better matches for subset of their extremely broad product line up.