Other A quick financial model. What's your calculus for when to upgrade?

[dchoco]

used to upgrade every 2 year cycle, but my iphone 12 mini lasts 3 years (yay).
i'm going to stretch my 15 pro to 4 years before the next upgrade.

didn't really calculate the financial incentive part of the process, but i usually just write off the iphone after upgrading.
turning it into a backup phone or give it to others

 

[Lionel Messi]

Yup its all about the resale value for me. since I buy my phones outright, I am trading in for typically over 1/2 the value of a new phone which has been working great for me and not locking me into any carriers plan for excessive periods of time, so am saving money on that side as well.

And as for resale, I don't ever bother with used market places or meeting people to sell...its not worth the headaches or risks. Decluttr...buybackboss etc...all been solid for me and no issues + saves any safety or fraud claims you may have selling to someone online or in person.

Talking about headache of marketplaces: last year, I listed my iPhone 12 Pro 256GB for $600. I received queries from 50 (yes, 50!) people before it was sold. I was willing to let it go for $500-550 as well, but people wanted it for $400 and below. What a damn headache that was. It sold for $550.

 

[beastly_beast]

Just a quick technical suggestion if you're into building models: if you want to make your model closer to what financial professionals would produce, you should discount the cash flows using whatever discount rate (interest rate) you feel is most appropriate to take the time value of money and opportunity costs into account and, next, make the final output of your model the net present value (NPV) of each scenario.

Good point. Here's a version at 5% (I think I did it right.)

Nice table. Costs can be cut in half by buying one-year old phones in mint condition on second market (no sales tax, at least 30% off) and resell after 2 years before failure risks increase. But this requires some experience / patience / luck for buying safely on second markets.

In the US state where I live, 2nd hand markets charge sales tax... Unless you're talking about Craigslist, which I would not find worth the hassle. What kind of prices are you getting? At Swappa prices w/ sales tax, this strategy does not seem to do much better than buying new and selling in two years.

I used to be in a new iPhone every 2 years as that was the carrier model.

Now, since the iPhone X, I go every 3 years because Apple doesn't do enough with new features to make it worth my time to upgrade any earlier. iPhone 12 camera is great, speed is great, screen is great, it's not buggy, I could keep it another year or two before the battery starts to fade.

Yeah I really only get the itch at/around year 3 too, which is probably the cadence I'll settle into.

 

[drew0020]

I upgrade every year to the Pro iPhone. It usually costs me $400ish after trade-in. Life is too short to use an old iPhone.

 

[eoblaed]

My calculus: There's a new flagship phone? Upgrade.

It's worth the few bucks a year to me (using the upgrade program) to always have the latest tech in my pocket.

 

[skiltrip]

$100/year expenditure.

Option 1 is buy the $800 base model and keep it for 8 years.

Option 2 is sell earlier than that and buy another but I try not to pass the $100/year thing.

Currently have the 6s and finally upgraded. Will do my best to have the iPhone 15 until 2031. Lol.

 

[beastly_beast]

$100/year expenditure.

Option 1 is buy the $800 base model and keep it for 8 years.

Option 2 is sell earlier than that and buy another but I try not to pass the $100/year thing.

Currently have the 6s and finally upgraded. Will do my best to have the iPhone 15 until 2031. Lol.

Oh my gosh. This makes me hurt inside. But more power to you 😅

You could make this way less painful probably by buying a 3-4 year old phone and using it for 3-4 years. But hopefully that 15 lasts!

 

[skiltrip]

Oh my gosh. This makes me hurt inside. But more power to you 😅

You could make this way less painful probably by buying a 3-4 year old phone and using it for 3-4 years. But hopefully that 15 lasts!

As frugal as I like to try to be, I still want that "latest and greatest" feeling everyone once in a while! Also a stickler for battery life. I'd hate to be a 3 year old phone with an already degraded battery. I don't mind a degraded battery in something I've already had for 4 years. It just becomes part of the accessory journey. lol. Battery cases, and USB battery banks and all that stuff.

I honestly think not a single iPhone has grabbed my interest until this latest one. Even today my 6s just won't die. I almost feel guilty not giving it another year!

 

[EvanEiga]

I love how you put everything down on a sheet!

I upgrade every year, and my rationale is similar to yours, but our situation differ. Hear me out,

I used to upgrade every year, and I gave my retired phone to one of my parents. Last year daddy, this year mommy, next year daddy again. I will then trade in the then two-year-old phone for roughly $150~$200. So for ~$1,000 ish post-iPhone X or ~$600-800 ish pre iPhone X a year, everyone in my immediate family gets a new-ish phone.

Things have changed in recent years as I am currently working in China, but the math is similar to your algorithm.
Each flagship phone (12PM, 13PM, 14PM, and now 15PM) cost roughly 9,999 RMB (~$1,360), most recent -1 year model are usually worth ~$6,000 ($820), so for 4000 RMB a year, or roughly ~$550, I get a new phone every year.

Now if I were to swap every 2 years, that would bring down the value of my most recent -2 year model phone to ~3500RMB ($480), making the annual cost of a phone down to 6500 RMB ($890)/2 = $445 a year.

So the math is, for an extra $100 a year, I get the newest and best-est technology Apple makes available to the market.

 

[isaac123]

As frugal as I like to try to be, I still want that "latest and greatest" feeling everyone once in a while! Also a stickler for battery life. I'd hate to be a 3 year old phone with an already degraded battery. I don't mind a degraded battery in something I've already had for 4 years. It just becomes part of the accessory journey. lol. Battery cases, and USB battery banks and all that stuff.

I honestly think not a single iPhone has grabbed my interest until this latest one. Even today my 6s just won't die. I almost feel guilty not giving it another year!

More power to you, gives me confidence i can keep my 12 Pro for a few more years. After the four year mark, battery replacements and power banks etc, costs add up

 

[RPhoto]

Always purchase phone only from Apple and have a sim-only for my network.

Back in the old days I'd upgrade every year. Since the 6s, though, I slowed right down. 6s -> Xs -> 12 Pro. Essentially now I only do so now when either a) I get bored of the phone I have and or b) a new phone offers something I see true benefit from.

In this case, coming from the 12 Pro, I was waiting for USB-C. Can't see myself going for a 16 or a 17 but we'll see.

 

[topbin]

Always purchase phone only from Apple and have a sim-only for my network.

Back in the old days I'd upgrade every year. Since the 6s, though, I slowed right down. 6s -> Xs -> 12 Pro. Essentially now I only do so now when either a) I get bored of the phone I have and or b) a new phone offers something I see true benefit from.

In this case, coming from the 12 Pro, I was waiting for USB-C. Can't see myself going for a 16 or a 17 but we'll see.

I'm the same - purchase on the 24 month 0% interest, get the sim-only deal. Then last time round I had the phone for 3 years, so two years paying ~£38 a month for the phone and £16 for the SIM, then one year paying just the £16.

Now upgrading to the 15 Pro, so paying £46 a month and £16 for the SIM. £62 a month for a couple of years and then a year of £68 probably if I do the same.

I hand my old phone to my wife too (she isn't really interested in having the latest, but she's on the X at the moment and has cracked the screen) so we get an additional benefit from that.