If you're going to hand-optimise your code for a specific processor implementation, you need access to the specific hardware (meatspace or virtual) for testing/tweaking at some point... and the issue is just as true of x86 if you're comparing i3 vs. i9 vs. Xeon vs. AMD. Apple can't wave a magic wand and make that not so. However - 90% of projects shouldn't need that, and even when they do, 90% of the development work can still be CPU independent.
...heck, a lot today's work is being done in Python or Javascript anyway...
It's tempting to say "OK, we're losing x86 compatibility, but we're gaining ARM compatibility!" but, really, just as the need to have an x86 laptop/desktop to develop for x86 targets can be overstated, the advantages of having an ARM laptop/desktop can also be overstated. The vast majority of modern development work is CPU independent (esp. if 64 bits, little-endian is a given and you're targeting modern OSs with good hardware abstraction frameworks) and the fractions-of-a-project that are the exceptions to that rule can't/shouldn't realistically be done without access to the real hardware.
You are right of course about all these things. As you say, having an ARM machine is probably less relevant for a normal developer who deploys to ARM, but it is crucial for library developers. Given that CPU semantics (e.g. in regards to memory order) differs from x86 and ARM, it is really helpful if your local machine has the same semantics if you are trying to debug some complex multi-threaded code.
I suppose the point I am trying to make is that new Macs will offer easy access to reasonably performance ARM hardware and that this will dramatically improve the software ecosystem for ARM, helping it to gain traction in the server market.