Analyst says Facebook will "disappear" in 8 years?

[Reach9]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/05/facebook-is-going-to-disa_n_1571675.html

According to the article, Facebook won't be able to transition to mobile properly and will fail in that "generation" just as Google is failing to get into the "social media generation". They said that Facebook will end up like Yahoo in 8 years.
Something "new" will come up, and will take everyones interest away.

Do you guys disagree? Do you think Facebook will keep the social media monopoly?
What do you think will cause people to go on Facebook less and less? (if that will happen)

The stock ended up with a huge gain of 6% today.

 

[ThisIsNotMe]

Really depends on what companies like Apple do.

You look at Siri and the modules they are adding are going to kill Google in mobile search. Apple provides there services free of charge as value added to the physical product they sell. Google search is nothing more than an advertising platform.

I also see this "freemium" model catching on opposed to ad supported.

Should be interesting.

 

[vincebio]

facebook recently introduced a €5.00 charge per post on Facebook Pages...this is the beginning of the end for Facebook for artists of all kinds pushing free info across to subscribers....its just not affordable.

Someone will come along im sure of it....lets be honest, as functional as it is , Facebook is a pile of crap in terms of UI, cohesion and coding.

They are lazy, and at some point someone will 'get it' and do something really new.

 

[boss.king]

Really depends on what companies like Apple do.

You look at Siri and the modules they are adding are going to kill Google in mobile search. Apple provides there services free of charge as value added to the physical product they sell. Google search is nothing more than an advertising platform.

I also see this "freemium" model catching on opposed to ad supported.

Should be interesting.

Doesn't Siri just Google the things you ask it?

 

[Reach9]

facebook recently introduced a €5.00 charge per post on Facebook Pages...this is the beginning of the end for Facebook for artists of all kinds pushing free info across to subscribers....its just not affordable.

Someone will come along im sure of it....lets be honest, as functional as it is , Facebook is a pile of crap in terms of UI, cohesion and coding.

They are lazy, and at some point someone will 'get it' and do something really new.

Good point.

Do you see yourself using Facebook less and less recently? A recent post by WSJ says that there's a significant decline:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303296604577454970244896342.html

The nature of social media platforms is that people aren't mainly there for the technology.. they are there to connect with friends and family, they are there for that intimacy. So in a sense wouldn't it be difficult for another social networking site to come up, how many people will switch platforms along with their contacts, pictures, info etc. ?

 

[Liquorpuki]

I think like most analysts, he's full of crap. They can't predict the future 8 years out, much less 2 years out. But they get paid $$$ to pretend they can

Nobody could've predicted after the Google IPO that Google would now be creating mobile OS's, analytics services, maps for geolocation, etc. That's how it's stayed relevant and grown. Can FB do the same? Nobody knows, including that analyst.

The guy is also saying web companies are broken down into generations and each generation has a different way to monetize. He calls search/aggregate websites the first generation, social networks the second, and mobile the third. That's all BS - there are no generations, just multiple ways to monetize off ads and they all can coexist. And mobile isn't gonna replace anything, if anything it's a market expansion

 

[vincebio]

Good point.

Do you see yourself using Facebook less and less recently? A recent post by WSJ says that there's a significant decline:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303296604577454970244896342.html

The nature of social media platforms is that people aren't mainly there for the technology.. they are there to connect with friends and family, they are there for that intimacy. So in a sense wouldn't it be difficult for another social networking site to come up, how many people will switch platforms along with their contacts, pictures, info etc. ?

sadly no, im using it more....as being connected to my business contacts in one easy mechanism is vital...i wish it wasnt, but it is.

its such a **** made portal.

you would think after all this time they would at least fix it

 

[Reach9]

The guy is also saying web companies are broken down into generations and each generation has a different way to monetize. He calls search/aggregate websites the first generation, social networks the second, and mobile the third. That's all BS - there are no generations, just multiple ways to monetize off ads and they all can coexist. And mobile isn't gonna replace anything, if anything it's a market expansion

Agreed.
Related to my previous post, I think Google+ is failing (comparatively) because people have all of their intimate connections on Facebook. It makes no sense for someone to give up all those years of information, pictures and such, and hop along to Google+, therefore there's a huge barrier to entry for anything "new"

I wonder though if niches like Twitter and LinkedIn will last longer, because they're focused on one thing.

sadly no, im using it more....as being connected to my business contacts in one easy mechanism is vital...i wish it wasnt, but it is.

its such a **** made portal.

you would think after all this time they would at least fix it

I'm curious as to why you don't use LinkedIn to stay connected to your business contacts? Just wondering

 

[AppleScruff1]

Apple will take over where Facebook left off. Maybe it will be iFriend? iPal? iBuddy? iAmigo? iFamily? Who knows?

 

[Liquorpuki]

The nature of social media platforms is that people aren't mainly there for the technology.. they are there to connect with friends and family, they are there for that intimacy. So in a sense wouldn't it be difficult for another social networking site to come up, how many people will switch platforms along with their contacts, pictures, info etc. ?

It would be difficult. New social networks don't have many actives so it's an uphill battle. The way competitors have been trying to challenge FB is by offering some new feature to draw people in.

And FB usually responds by copying the new feature and so there's no more threat. Foursquare does geolocation and check-ins, FB copies it with Places. Path uses a timeline concept, FB rips it off. G+ does circles, FB copies circles. etc.

I wonder though if niches like Twitter and LinkedIn will last longer, because they're focused on one thing.

Twitter has something FB doesn't have - it's ideal for mobile, where you're not gonna type a long paragraph and your cell service is too slow to wait for stuff to load. All you want to do is get the word out and see what other people are saying. Knowing FB is weak on mobile, I'm surprised they haven't ripped off Twitter yet. Instead they just keep updating their slow clunky app

 

[NewAnger]

Facebook will only be popular until the next big thing comes along.

Back in the early 90s, there was Prodigy, Genie, AOL and Compuserve. Then there was Friendster, Myspace and FaceBook. There will always be something new to kick the former to the curb.

 

[roadbloc]

Facebook will only be popular until the next big thing comes along.

Back in the early 90s, there was Prodigy, Genie, AOL and Compuserve. Then there was Friendster, Myspace and FaceBook. There will always be something new to kick the former to the curb.

Ping.

 

[smoledman]

Unfortunately I don't see FB going away ever.

 

[G51989]

Apple will take over where Facebook left off. Maybe it will be iFriend? iPal? iBuddy? iAmigo? iFamily? Who knows?

No.


Facebook is something that, I use a bit, just because so many people I know do. I don't write status's very much. Or rant, just use the msging service for people outside of the country. Because so many of them don't have international calling.

I do see people using it less and less though. Thank god.

 

[Mac'nCheese]

Facebook will only be popular until the next big thing comes along.

Back in the early 90s, there was Prodigy, Genie, AOL and Compuserve. Then there was Friendster, Myspace and FaceBook. There will always be something new to kick the former to the curb.

But were they ever as close to being as popular as fb is now? And did those who use it: were they as attached to it as they are fb. We have a lot of people addicted to this site and to their friends pages. Will they all move?

 

[PlaceofDis]

But were they ever as close to being as popular as fb is now? And did those who use it: were they as attached to it as they are fb. We have a lot of people addicted to this site and to their friends pages. Will they all move?

eventually? probably yes. it will likely be a generational thing. the kids of this generation will not want to be on the same network as their parents and all that. but i think that social networks such as Facebook will always be generational imo.

 

[NewAnger]

But were they ever as close to being as popular as fb is now? And did those who use it: were they as attached to it as they are fb. We have a lot of people addicted to this site and to their friends pages. Will they all move?

AOL was a huge addiction back in the day. There were numerous news reports on how this type of thing caused people to have chatroom addictions. People were staying online 24/7 just glued to their computers because of AOL.

People started leaving AOL around 2007. The chatrooms were still packed during that year and it wasn't till 2011 when the chatrooms had only a handful of users in them, most of them porn bots.

I even came across a website just now that claimed that FB was AOL twenty years later. I have no doubt that it will suffer the same fate and the next big thing is just right around the corner. There always has been when the net is concerned.

 

[PlaceofDis]

also it occurs to me that whether or not Facebook disappears will be largely do to how technology advances and how they are able to adapt to users needs/wants from the social network.

 

[MorphingDragon]

Any competent marketer can tell you the Facebook isn't going to last 8 years.

I would also argue that Google provides a core service that would be harder to live without, not so much facebook.

 

[416049]

i wonder what the "new" facebook would be?

an advanced twitter? a revamped version of google+ because currently that one sucks majorly....

i am not big in terms of social networks like some of my classmates and friends who update their profile pics every week once or twice and post multiple statuses, create groups and/or pages every week but for my uses chatting every once in a while and having a connection tool with people all over the world, fb is useful... and i would definitely miss the easy connections part of it unless the other service is something extremely revolutionary...

 

[tekno]

Really depends on what companies like Apple do.

Oh come on.

----------

Apple will take over where Facebook left off. Maybe it will be iFriend? iPal? iBuddy? iAmigo? iFamily? Who knows?

Ping?

 

[ThisIsNotMe]

Oh come on.

You missed the entire point of my post.

You can already see how Apple is going to (successfully) undercut Google Search (and thus advertising) in its mobile platform.

Its like saying com'on, Apple isn't going to take on Google, but that is exactly what Siri does and as they add more and more modules, they are going to undercut Google more and more.

 

[KnightWRX]

You missed the entire point of my post.

You can already see how Apple is going to (successfully) undercut Google Search (and thus advertising) in its mobile platform.

Except I doubt for one that :

1- Siri is used that extensively. I sure have given up on it myself.
2- Google will abandon Android, the current #1 mobile platform.

Its like saying com'on, Apple isn't going to take on Google, but that is exactly what Siri does and as they add more and more modules, they are going to undercut Google more and more.

Siri doesn't take on Google. Siri feeds the text form of your spoken words into existing databases/search engines outside of Apple. And it's frankly hard to get it to do anything outside the US. "I don't know about that, want to search the web for it ?" before it pops open Safari right into Google...

 

[danahn17]

You missed the entire point of my post.

You can already see how Apple is going to (successfully) undercut Google Search (and thus advertising) in its mobile platform.

Its like saying com'on, Apple isn't going to take on Google, but that is exactly what Siri does and as they add more and more modules, they are going to undercut Google more and more.

I'm not sure I agree. There's no way to tell as of now that Apple is going to be successful in undercutting Google. Nor is there any way to tell if in the future, Apple will successfully take over FB's or Google's role. Many things can happen in a span of 8 years, especially in the tech world.

Take a look at what happened to Dell, Sony, Yahoo, and RIM in the past 10-20 years. Heck, back then Apple was as good as dead and Samsung was virtually unknown in the States. Things like wireless broadband internet, MP3 players, downloadable movies, smartphones were all unheard of.

Apple is a robust brand now and I can see them playing a major role in the future. But so is Google. And it's up to them to keep on innovating or, at the very least, keep up with the new, emerging technologies and innovations to stay relevant. If they don't, they may experience a very quick and painful fall from the top of the tech world. Eight years doesn't seem like a lot... but a lot can still happen.

All that being said... I'm not sure Facebook, as it exists in its current form, will be sustainable for the long term. Will they adapt, evolve, and/or innovate to survive? We'll see....

 

[malman89]

Ping.

Ping?

I think you are the only two people I've ever seen speak positively about Ping. Nope.