Analyst says Facebook will "disappear" in 8 years?

[tekno]

Its like saying com'on, Apple isn't going to take on Google, but that is exactly what Siri does

No, Siri uses Google.

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I think you are the only two people I've ever seen speak positively about Ping. Nope.

I was actually being sarcastic (and speaking negatively about Ping) but I guess that didn't come across. The post I replied to said that Apple would take-over where Facebook left off - to make that comment when we've just heard that Ping is being put to rest shows that's quite unlikely.

 

[usptact]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/05/facebook-is-going-to-disa_n_1571675.html

According to the article, Facebook won't be able to transition to mobile properly and will fail in that "generation" just as Google is failing to get into the "social media generation". They said that Facebook will end up like Yahoo in 8 years.
Something "new" will come up, and will take everyones interest away.

Do you guys disagree? Do you think Facebook will keep the social media monopoly?
What do you think will cause people to go on Facebook less and less? (if that will happen)

The stock ended up with a huge gain of 6% today.

If somebody invents" a way for people which enables them to communicate in REAL life, then that will be a big revolution. Oh... is that new thing just old good forgotten stuff?

 

[KnightWRX]

No, Siri uses Google.

Actually, it uses Wolfram Alpha. Apple doesn't even do the natural language processing bit on its own.

 

[jammybastard]

FB may "go away" but their server and data collected never will.
There in lies the problem.

 

[KnightWRX]

FB may "go away" but their server and data collected never will.
There in lies the problem.

What makes you say that ? A lot of online services close their doors and with them, bring your data along into limbo.

 

[Dr McKay]

It's almost impossible to predict huge things like that in the Technology world, and basing your "evidence" on history is a pretty lousy measure.

 

[tekno]

Actually, it uses Wolfram Alpha. Apple doesn't even do the natural language processing bit on its own.

Actually, that didn't apply to this argument. If you read the post I replied to, you'll see why I pointed out the fact that it relies on Google.

 

[jammybastard]

What makes you say that ? A lot of online services close their doors and with them, bring your data along into limbo.

There's no "limbo" in the digital age.
"Limbo" doesn't really apply when the data is being shared/distributed with marketing firms, advertisers, and anyone else that pays FB to see it.
Now we can quibble about how FB only gives non-specific details to clients, how they probably hash passwords, encrypt data, etc...but it's all being stored on physical drives that can be copied & shared.

 

[MorphingDragon]

It's almost impossible to predict huge things like that in the Technology world, and basing your "evidence" on history is a pretty lousy measure.

Windows Server 201X is going to suck just as much as the others...

Just you watch me.

 

[KnightWRX]

"Limbo" doesn't really apply when the data is being shared/distributed with marketing firms, advertisers, and anyone else that pays FB to see it.

That's where everyone that doesn't understand how advertising revenue works is wrong see. Facebook, like Google, like Apple, doesn't share their data with advertising firms or clients. That would just be daft on their part. Their data is their key to getting the revenue.

They promise to target ads based on certain metrics, based on the data they've collected. Advertisers buy slots based on these metrics and then Google, Facebook or Apple targets their users based on the collected data.

Sharing the data would mean that they lose their edge for someone else's profit.

Online services do disappear and with them, they do take your data. Make sure you have local backups, don't use Facebook as a photo album, don't use Picasa for it either. Don't rely on photostream to always be there.

 

[Les Kern]

I think like most analysts, he's full of crap. They can't predict the future 8 years out, much less 2 years out. But they get paid $$$ to pretend they can

Nobody could've predicted after the Google IPO that Google would now be creating mobile OS's, analytics services, maps for geolocation, etc. That's how it's stayed relevant and grown. Can FB do the same? Nobody knows, including that analyst.

The guy is also saying web companies are broken down into generations and each generation has a different way to monetize. He calls search/aggregate websites the first generation, social networks the second, and mobile the third. That's all BS - there are no generations, just multiple ways to monetize off ads and they all can coexist. And mobile isn't gonna replace anything, if anything it's a market expansion

I love reading smackdowns of obvious bull ****.

 

[Wicked1]

I would say FB is losing users and people are getting bored of it...especially with the security, they just do not trust it anymore.

I think the bigger more underlying issue will be how they generate revenue going forward, no one wants pop up ads and that is what they are trying to sell, also as soon as they start charging, even like $1.00 per month, most of the users will drop it. I am talking to more and more people lately and they are either de-activating their accounts, or just not using it, they say call me, or text me.

One thing that troubles me is the integration with Twitter in iOS5 and now FB in iOS6. I say leave them just as they were apps you download, or give us the option of not having them, I do not use either anymore and I do not want them on my phone at all, I know once you delete them, they go away, but they are still going to be embedded in our/Apple's iOS

 

[Antares]

Facebook is a business. Any business can shut down, yes. Disruptions to the market can and do happen. Who would have thought that Yahoo!, eXcite and HotBot would have lost most or all of their users in favor of Google for internet search? Who would have thought that the king of portable music (Sony) would lose almost their entire market to a company that has never made any kind of music playing device (Apple)? MySpace was the king of social media….then Facebook came along and all but killed MySpace. So, yes, Facebook could also be toppled by another company or just simply go out of business. Just like could and has happened to other business on the top of their respective markets.

However, Facebook has too many advantages for it to be both easily and quickly overcome by any competitor challenge. 1. It has more active users than any social media company has ever had. 2. Not only does the company have an extremely large number of users…but an enormous number of active and engaged users. 3. It has universal appeal to people across all possible demographics (which is extremely difficult to attain in any type of business). 4. Access to Facebook is easy and free plus is simple to use. 5. Facebook has flexibility to adapt to market tastes and competitor developments…If a competitor comes along with any feature that Facebook doesn’t have, Facebook can usually (and eventually) replicate that feature.

In general terms, Facebook occupies an new form of communication. Just like telephones (cell phones) are not going anywhere, social media is not going anywhere. Facebook could be replaced by another company just like Facebook replaced MySpace. But it is extremely unlikely to happen given all of the above advantages. Modern society now depends on social media and that dependence is continuing to grow.

 

[Reach9]

Very interesting.. so Facebook just bought Face.com, looks like they want to get into the Skype, Facetime competition?
What do you speculate Facebook will do with the new "facial recognition" company?

 

[Huntn]

I believe that Facebook or some form of social media will continue forward as a solid means of communication. If it is Facebook or not depends on how well Facebook adapts to the needs of humans as compared to other services. I primarily like it because it allows me to keep track of what is going on with my family who is spread out.

That said, read this fascinating Atlantic Magazine Article: Is Facebook Making Us Lonely? making a case that online interaction is not a substitute for face to face interaction although many of us choose this as a primary outlet. But we all know that right? Having online friends, we've never met, that we type text to is no substitute for flesh and blood, face to face interaction.

For myself who spends half of each month traveling, I use MacRumors forums as one of my primary outlets for discussing a wide variety of issues.

 

[Apple Key]

While I can't state an exact timeframe (8 years?), I do believe that advancements in technology will make Facebook obsolete.

Once someone comes up with a more "human" way of connecting with others through technology, Facebooks era will end.

 

[Nabooly]

Very interesting.. so Facebook just bought Face.com, looks like they want to get into the Skype, Facetime competition?
What do you speculate Facebook will do with the new "facial recognition" company?

Isn't the video chat on FB powered by skype?

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While I can't state an exact timeframe (8 years?), I do believe that advancements in technology will make Facebook obsolete.

Once someone comes up with a more "human" way of connecting with others through technology, Facebooks era will end.

I do agree, however I just don't see how there is a possibility of a more advanced way of connecting with hundreds of people (not just friends).

Forums like this one have been around forever, and most likely wont go anywhere...ever. Facebook is like a macrumors minus the mac part

 

[Bernard SG]

However, Facebook has too many advantages for it to be both easily and quickly overcome by any competitor challenge. 1. It has more active users than any social media company has ever had. 2. Not only does the company have an extremely large number of users…but an enormous number of active and engaged users. 3. It has universal appeal to people across all possible demographics (which is extremely difficult to attain in any type of business). 4. Access to Facebook is easy and free plus is simple to use. 5. Facebook has flexibility to adapt to market tastes and competitor developments…If a competitor comes along with any feature that Facebook doesn’t have, Facebook can usually (and eventually) replicate that feature.

Excellent analysis, and I would add that, as a consequence, FB also has the infrastructure to handle that billion of users, something that no Start-up competitor won't be able to match.

Nevertheless, I see a huge weakness in FB. I just don't believe they have the ability to sustainably generate the revenue to justify their IPO valuation and that's where it could all go downhill.

 

[Reach9]

I wonder though, at what point will Facebook hit a saturation point? You can argue that it has already peaked in North America and UK, and is declining. The numbers are growing rapidly due to adoption in Brazil, India and Indonesia. What will happen when it peaks there?

How much more better can they make social interactions than what it is right now, to continue that engagement?

People don't use social networks for the technology mainly.. they use it for the intimate connections they have on it.
I've seen a huge drop in my over 500+ friends activities that show up on my News Feed. I've asked a lot of college students and they're saying "i don't go on Facebook that much now a days, we like Twitter more" Funny enough i believe the largest demographic for Facebook is the "college student" or 18-25 year olds.

So it's a chicken and an egg issue. People use social networks for the intimate connections with their friends and family, and won't switch to another one unless their friends and family are already on there. Could Facebook be the end all of social networks? Do you think that after people get to the saturation point with Facebook they won't use another similar social network, like Google+?

After saturation around the world, will Facebook end up like Yahoo?

 

[Liquorpuki]

I wonder though, at what point will Facebook hit a saturation point? You can argue that it has already peaked in North America and UK, and is declining. The numbers are growing rapidly due to adoption in Brazil, India and Indonesia. What will happen when it peaks there?

Biggest potential growth markets for FB are in international and mobile. If you plot international FB revenue vs western revenue, it's extremely lop-sided. And FB has had problems monetizing off mobile, which is why their forecast was cut. If FB can solve either of these problems, investors will make money. If both of these problems are solved and there's no new disruptive tech, then Facebook will have saturated. Then it will have to do what Google did after search, which is figure out new methods/markets to monetize.

One of Zuckerberg's visions for Facebook involves information sharing. Where Facebook competes with traditional news outlets as information channels. I don't really see the equivalence right now but when you look at how Facebook has caused things to go viral and undermined propaganda in countries like Syria, I think he's onto something.

 

[sigamy]

I guess I'm getting old...I can't stand Facebook and it's "look at me, look at what I'm doing" mentality.

But I'm admittedly a not very social person in real life, so I'm not the target market.

I may be proven wrong but I see FB as a complete re-do of AOL of the mid to late 1990s. Facebook is the internet for teens and housewives. And once the teens find something new and the housewives get bored, FB will suffer.

How many remember the AOL disks in the mail? The "You've Got Mail" movie? And every commerical with "AOL keyword"? Guess what? Something came in and drank AOL's milkshake.

Today we have commericals where an established company gives their Facebook URL--instead of their own web page--at the end of the ad.

Why in the world would an established corporation push customers under someone else's umbrella? I know the reason, that is where the users are...but come on. If I was Ford, you would be directed to Ford.com where I control everything and provide hooks and links to other flavor-of-the-month services such as FB, Twitter, G+, etc.

The final issue with FB is privacy. It will take a few large scale scares, but something will happen that will wake people up. Look at MySpace and the NBC Predator reports. MySpace, gone. Today's college students will lose jobs due to drunk photos on FB. A Senator has already resigned over leaked photos. People's private information will get hacked or better yet, they will realize that every single thing about them is being used to deliver marketing messages.

Put me in the camp that sees FB as a fad. I do not see this lasting as a 20 year company.

 

[smoledman]

Windows Server 201X is going to suck just as much as the others...

Just you watch me.

Really? What sucks about Windows Server? From what I've seen WS 2008 is super solid.

 

[Wicked1]

I can see FB gone in less time, and if there stock does not go up and they find a way to improve profits, I see them going sooner.

Something will pop up to take over, just like years ago when Radio Shack was the leader, now Best Buy is, and Caldor and Bradless, got shutdown because of K-Mart. You will see Walmart and Target around when K-Mart goes.

Nature of the beast unless your Apple and Microsoft or something else that has made money thru all the bad and good times.

 

[Ariii]

I hope it disappears really quickly. FaceBook, which has always been thought of as full of pointless content, is degenerating into something worse. Now (At least from what I've seen) half of everything on FaceBook is, "Like if X" and it's rating system has so frequently been abused in a lot of ways. And it already gives information that doesn't seem logical that it can be retrieved from FaceBook. And even with information that seems easy to get from FaceBook, you can do so much with that it's creepy. Just look at 'Girls Around Me' or something similar. I'm now forced to use the mobile version, too, just because they're forcing the TimeLine on every FaceBook page. G+ doesn't seem much better about this either. IRC was always so simple it has been the best chat protocol. It's sorted by topic and has a simple list of commands. It probably won't ever catch on with the younger population online, sadly.

Anyways, I hope FaceBook ends soon. Friendica seems like the perfect replacement for that.

 

[docx]

i dont know how long facebook will last but I hope it goes away soon.
This is why.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1138445/Janet-Street-Porter-Why-I-hate-Facebook.html