So I did some digging because 1) I'm going crazy waiting for the Back to School sale and the new MBA and 2) I'm super bored.
Follows are the dates in the last 5 years of when the Back to School promotion began.
- 2010 - May 25th (Tuesday)
- 2009 - May 27th (Wednesday)
- 2008 - June 3rd (Tuesday)
- 2007 - June 5th (Tuesday)
- 2006 - June 5th (Monday)
Next are the dates in the last 5 years of when WWDC was held.
- 2010 - June 7th (Monday)
- 2009 - June 8th (Monday)
- 2008 - June 9th (Monday)
- 2007 - June 11th (Monday)
- 2006 - August 7th (Monday)
While there may not be any sort of correlation between WWDC and the Back to School sale, I think it's particularly interesting that the Back to School sale consistently began before WWDC. In 2010, it began 13 days before WWDC. In 2009, 12 days. In 2008, 6 days. 2007, 6 days. And 2006, almost 2 months (let's just call this a statistical anomaly).
Also, within the last 5 years, the B2S promo has always began early in the week (excluding Sunday). So it's possible we see it come tomorrow (Wednesday), but more likely than not, in the upcoming weeks on a Tuesday.
I'd also peg it for coming sooner than later, if you go by the trends at least. I'm not sure if the release of Lion really has much to do with the B2S promo, since buying a Mac after June 4th (correct me as I don't particularly remember correctly) gets you that free (I think?) upgrade to Lion anyway, which of course, is strictly downloadable (no need for Apple to slip upgrade discs in customer's boxes/bags anymore).
Lastly, for those waiting on a refreshed MBA (like myself), I think it's interesting to hear on the forums that Apple would wait 'til after the B2S promo. It seems as if the argument here is that Apple doesn't want to release a new product and wants to nix the rest of their dated inventory. However, last year, 4 refreshes (excluding the iPhone) came during the Back to School promotion:
- Mac Mini - June 15th (Tuesday)
- iMac - July 27th (Tuesday)
- Mac Pro - July 27th
- Apple Cinema Display - July 27th
So thusly, I'd say it's entirely feasible we see an MBA refresh sometime between the 14th (next Tuesday) and July 26th (last Tuesday in July).
Anywho, just brainstorming