I don't think that Apple has reached its peak. Just look at the speculation for iPhone 5, iPad 3, and what we had with the delayed release of Mac OS X Lion. There is still a large demand for Apple products. A lot of people are really excited with what Apple does. The company has always seemed to find another product to replace their previous items (iPod Touch with iPod, iPhone with iPod Touch, iPad to iPhone, etc.) Eventually, I think that they'll decline, simply because of what usually happens with most companies. However, until the demand for Apple products and the fanfare that accompanies them dies down, I don't think Apple will have a downturn anytime soon.
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Apple Is Peaking, Will Decline, Predicts Trip Hawkins
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It's only going to get bigger. The latest iPad numbers are nothing compared to what's coming. Apple is set for a major explosion in growth this decade.
What are you basing this on, exactly?
10 years is an awful long time to be making predictions. Just 10 years ago no one could have predicted the success of the iOS line of products, or the revived interest in Macs.
The same thing applies today. No one can predict what dormant (or currently non-existant) company will suddenly usher in a series of products that people want to buy. E-ink readers are a perfect example of this. A scant 3 years ago they were rare and largely regarded as an amusing niche. Today they sell in twice the quantity of the entire tablet market.
Apple's success in the last 10 years has been because of marketing. Apple generates a unique brand image not unlike clothing retailers or luxury car companies. However, that doesn't mean that other can't learn from and emulate that success.
I generally think by the time everyone is talking about something, it's already peaked. They have the next few years, but somebody will come along to dethrone them. Heck, even Microsoft might make a comeback to take the #1 crown, who knows really. Just takes a couple good ideas.
I generally think by the time everyone is talking about something, it's already peaked. They have the next few years, but somebody will come along to dethrone them. Heck, even Microsoft might make a comeback to take the #1 crown, who knows really. Just takes a couple good ideas.
True. The one thing that I could see possibly happening is someone going after a niche that Apple leaves behind. I'm thinking about how Apple is basing their laptops more on a mobile software platform and less on a traditional laptop. If Microsoft or some other company can create a better laptop that is based more on a computer's operating software rather than iOS, they may be able to take away a good-sized portion of Apple's laptop community.
However, I think that would have to be a major difference to get some people to go beyond the traditional PC/Mac arguments. But, like you said, it only takes a few good ideas to propel a company's popularity.
We need more moving stuff, bright colors, and fun sounds. Only 5 year olds don't like stuff like that. Boring 5 year olds.
Sooner or later
Sooner or later it will be true. So, if Trip Hawkins can time it perfectly, he can make a lot of money.
Sooner or later it will be true. So, if Trip Hawkins can time it perfectly, he can make a lot of money.
Your life revolves around Apple doesn't it. It must suck not having any friends and being known as the Apple clown who cant shutup about Apple.
Let's all give Trip Hawkins an award for stating obvious.
Of course Apple is going to decline. Their growth rate is not sustainable. But everybody knows that. The question is when will that happen and what will that picture look like.
I think Apple has got at least another five years of growth left. At the same time that Android's adoption has been skyrocketing, Apple's share of smartphone industry profits has grown from more than half to 60%. Their profits are up 125% YOY. Revenues are up 80% YOY. All this and Apple doesn't hold the number one spot in any of the markets that it's part of except for MP3 players and tablets.
There is tons of room left to grow in Apple's existing markets alone. Let's not forget that Apple is still on only two carriers in USA. There's also the fact that Apple has a massive cash hoard, which can be used to invest in R&D on the next great thing.
What will accelerate the decline of companies is their inability to stay nimble. Being a public corporation is an encumberance in and of itself, but the benefits of being public far outweigh the encumberances. Getting too big is another problem. Reports say that political infighting has severely hindered Microsoft's ability to innovate. Another problem is getting to comfortable with past successes. In business, a successful product is like an oil field. Oil companies maintain several oil fields in their portfolio and also keep several exploration projects in the pipeline to avoid stagnation.
Apple has proven that they are committed to staying nimble. The company is quite small. In fact, Apple is so small that engineers routinely work on projects involving different products, such as iOS and Mac. An engineer who typically works on iOS projects may move over to a project on Mac OS and vice versa. Apple doesn't have teams whose sole job is to work on one particular product line, like they have at a place like Microsoft. This allows for tight integration across product lines.
Also, Apple has shown a commitment to always look for the next big thing. They plan ahead. We had the Mac in the beginning. Then, we had the iPod. Then we had the iPhone. Now we have the iPad. In fact, iOS devices account for the lion's share of Apple's revenues. At other companies like Microsoft, people who head up important divisions, such as Windows would ensure that no product could rise to that level.
Apple is not going to remain like they are. Time is one enemy no can escape from. But everybody knows that. Trip Hawkins is one among dozens of people who have ended up with egg on their face after betting against Apple and losing, but at least Hawkins was smart not to put a timeline on when this decline will happen. What's important is when this decline will happen. Also important is how this decline will happen.
Of course Apple is going to decline. Their growth rate is not sustainable. But everybody knows that. The question is when will that happen and what will that picture look like.
I think Apple has got at least another five years of growth left. At the same time that Android's adoption has been skyrocketing, Apple's share of smartphone industry profits has grown from more than half to 60%. Their profits are up 125% YOY. Revenues are up 80% YOY. All this and Apple doesn't hold the number one spot in any of the markets that it's part of except for MP3 players and tablets.
There is tons of room left to grow in Apple's existing markets alone. Let's not forget that Apple is still on only two carriers in USA. There's also the fact that Apple has a massive cash hoard, which can be used to invest in R&D on the next great thing.
What will accelerate the decline of companies is their inability to stay nimble. Being a public corporation is an encumberance in and of itself, but the benefits of being public far outweigh the encumberances. Getting too big is another problem. Reports say that political infighting has severely hindered Microsoft's ability to innovate. Another problem is getting to comfortable with past successes. In business, a successful product is like an oil field. Oil companies maintain several oil fields in their portfolio and also keep several exploration projects in the pipeline to avoid stagnation.
Apple has proven that they are committed to staying nimble. The company is quite small. In fact, Apple is so small that engineers routinely work on projects involving different products, such as iOS and Mac. An engineer who typically works on iOS projects may move over to a project on Mac OS and vice versa. Apple doesn't have teams whose sole job is to work on one particular product line, like they have at a place like Microsoft. This allows for tight integration across product lines.
Also, Apple has shown a commitment to always look for the next big thing. They plan ahead. We had the Mac in the beginning. Then, we had the iPod. Then we had the iPhone. Now we have the iPad. In fact, iOS devices account for the lion's share of Apple's revenues. At other companies like Microsoft, people who head up important divisions, such as Windows would ensure that no product could rise to that level.
Apple is not going to remain like they are. Time is one enemy no can escape from. But everybody knows that. Trip Hawkins is one among dozens of people who have ended up with egg on their face after betting against Apple and losing, but at least Hawkins was smart not to put a timeline on when this decline will happen. What's important is when this decline will happen. Also important is how this decline will happen.
Apple's massive number of believers will carry them for some time. In the tech sector, only Apple has focused on building such an army of followers. That's an advantage that can overcome a lot of shortcomings.
Only Apple loyalists would even think about spending $69.00 for Lion on a plastic thumb drive, only to wipe it clean so as to use it like a cheap USB flash drive. All because of the Apple logo. Now that's very revealing.
Only Apple loyalists would even think about spending $69.00 for Lion on a plastic thumb drive, only to wipe it clean so as to use it like a cheap USB flash drive. All because of the Apple logo. Now that's very revealing.
What is wrong with generating a unique brand image? Face it, Apple has earned its success fair and square. I am sick and tired of people implying that effective marketing is somehow a form of cheating.
I never said it was a form of cheating.
I'm just explaining that Apple's position is good for now because it's been able to convince people that it is the best at tablets, music players, and phones. This "revelation" by the public is a recent phenomenon and can easily be taken away by competitors, an entirely new type of product, or simple change in consumer taste.
HP's tablet failure is a perfect example of what happens when marketing fails. Even with a product that was rated quite highly be critics, sales were rare. Customers just didn't want it. The same thing can happen to Apple in the future, because it already did 15 years ago.
You conveniently omit the fact that said "Apple loyalists" can simply download Lion off the App Store for $29.00, less than half the cost of getting Lion on the USB stick. Way to cherry-pick the facts to defend your argument.
The more I read about HP's direction change, the more I think its less about not making money in the consumer segment and more that the CEO wants to change HP into a Software only corporation. Being that he's from SAP a software only corporation and he has zero hardware experience means that people shouldn't be surprised.
Also what's surprising is that HP was making money in the consumer segment.
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Using lack of flash and "closed system" as part of his argument is ludicrous. This "entertainment" piece will only fool the weaker of species. As for the rest of the article know this: Speculation by these so-called Wall Street "experts" is spotty at best. In fact for several years a Chicago newspaper (Sun Times if I recall) had a monkey pick stocks with a dart and beat the humans EVERY time.
Argue back and forth all you want, but it's a waste of time.
Argue back and forth all you want, but it's a waste of time.
I agree with this statement as well as many others. I still believe that Apple makes quality products but with more and more competitors surfacing the products they currently have are seeming less innovative and quite frankly more boring. I was really impressed with the iPhone when it first came out but now it just seems like more of the same. I have been eligible for an upgrade for over a year now and have yet to get the iPhone 4 because for me it's not really that much of an upgrade or original experience compared to my current iPhone. Frankly, i'm quite tired of iOS and the simplicity of it all. Many of their competitors seem to offer so much more than Apple does, like they are just now improving their notification system?
IMO, despite having many competitors that offer similar products with more features and perhaps for lower prices Apple still continues to do well for the exact reason that CalBoy mentioned, good marketing. But if Apple doesn't get off it's high horse and start to realize that they have serious competition and that they can't just dictate things and think people will continue to accept it because "it's Apple" they will fall and honestly I couldn't care less. I'm waiting for someone to overthrow Apple because as a consumer that means new, innovative and more exciting tech for me.
So true. Perfect example is found in another truly American icon -- Harley-Davidson. Once upon a time, perhaps one of the finest 2 wheeled machines on the planet. If a room was filled with all the different brands of motorcycles you can buy today, H-D would indeed be the 800 pound gorilla. H-D is the slowest, least fuel efficient, least nimble, and least reliable with the highest cost to own of them all. YET,seemingly still the most desirable to own to Suzy and Joseph Average. People buy the H-D products not because of what they actually are, but because of what they represent to them.
HOWEVER....
The difference to me is that there are not so many shortcomings for Apple to overcome. I work with peecee's and Win based systems every day, 12 hours a day. It is always wonderful to come home to a machine (iMac 10K549) that lets me do my work, be productive, and literally everything I ask it to do without a hitch or glitch. I do not see the obstacle course for Apple that MS would have. And as far as the iPhone is concerned, If you are bored with that then you are likely the type of person that would be abled to sleep through Cirque de Soleil, or perhaps a Steve Vai concert... Seriously looking at the alternatives to iPhone is an exercise in futility. Flash means nothing to me, except a vehicle for as many worms and viri as possible.
Having said that, Apple peaks with every new product release. The world wakes up each time there is swallow flying over the campus in Cupertino. Before the actual peak ever has a possibility of happening, the entire world will again have solid trust in machines and operating systems, which is something Windows has never done and will never do.
Actually people with poor internet connections would buy the thumbdrive... It has nothing to do with loyalists, it's that Apple is being stupid and trying to eliminate physical media before the world is ready for it.
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Is it just me or are you drawing comparisons between the motorbike, the gorilla, and Apple products?
As for the 'exercise in futility' of looking for another phone, have you ever stopped to consider that people have different needs to your own? I've written this out over and over on this site but; people are different. Stop assuming you have the exact same wants and needs as the rest of the world.
I don't really get the swallow thing... Maybe I'm too young. All I know is that OSX is not the operating system I'd choose to put my faith in.
Given that Lion is apple's best selling OS, which sold over a million copies on one day. I'd say the exclusion of any physical media did not hurt them at all.
People whined when apple dropped the floppy disk back in in the bondi blue iMac days and apple was right then.
Yeah, that's cos there are still millions who have a good internet connection. There are also millions who don't.
My point is that Lion by all accounts is an incredible success. Given that fact, its hard to argue that apple was "stupid" to eliminate physical media.
Digital downloads is the future, whether people accept it or not. Apple has shown itself in the past to jettison technology that stops serving a need. The optical drive is one such component.
Do people still use it, but I would estimate that more people hardly use their optical drive except to install an OS or maybe the odd movie or two. I've pulled my optical drive out of the MBP and I don't miss it one iota. I applaud apple for taking a bold step.
Digital downloads is the future, whether people accept it or not. Apple has shown itself in the past to jettison technology that stops serving a need. The optical drive is one such component.
Do people still use it, but I would estimate that more people hardly use their optical drive except to install an OS or maybe the odd movie or two. I've pulled my optical drive out of the MBP and I don't miss it one iota. I applaud apple for taking a bold step.