ARM based MacBook Pro discussion [merged]

[kaans]

This was fun to watch:

<- Emulates old operating systems on the iPad Pro

It wasn't something I researched to be honest, but it seems the virtualization is already available - so I guess I'll switch directly too, just wish the Apple had better designed integratability, put more thought into stuff, so we could have virtualization without .dmg/root password installers too - I always get paranoid about how they do what they do, how they watch mouse/keyboard inputs, whether they include lags or system issues etc.

Comparatively, App Store is extremely limiting, but the sandboxing is just incredible - if we run everything inside App Store's sandboxing, theoretically there won't be any possibility of malwares, ransomwares, or just software bugging the system etc. - they just failed so bad there, by not providing integration points and making everything such a chore, as an indie developer I have a Mac App Store version, but I deeply regret having it in the first place - a super established game like Stardew Valley even doesn't have a Mac App Store version, even though it would sell

Honestly, the reason I use only MacOS is to not be able to game, as it's an addiction for me, for example Dota is available on MacOS too, but if you played on Windows, it just doesn't go anywhere near that experience - but it's a good thing, at least for me

 

[arche3]

I will use my new 16 for 3 years. Then get the top line armbookpro.

 

[Maximara]

An Intel iMac just leaked.

If Apple wanted to "come out strong" with their own chips, they'd have an iMac model (at least the 24") with their ARM chip.

That's looking increasingly unlikely.

From April 23, 2020: "Although there had been some reports that the first ARM-based Mac could arrive this year, the debut model is now not expected to launch until 2021,"

That an Intel mac is coming out this year should not surprise anyone as the developer MacMini is not the "debut model" talked about in the above. Apple wants more then just their software and a handful of other titles ready to go and that means giving the developers time to rewrite program code so they can take full advantage of the ARM CPU. This may shock you but sane software development takes time - and certainly developers will want to add some more features to their software and they are not going into a 4 month crunch window if they can avoid it.

 

[awesomedeluxe]

From April 23, 2020: "Although there had been some reports that the first ARM-based Mac could arrive this year, the debut model is now not expected to launch until 2021,"

That an Intel mac is coming out this year should not surprise anyone as the developer MacMini is not the "debut model" talked about in the above. Apple wants more then just their software and a handful of other titles ready to go and that means giving the developers time to rewrite program code so they can take full advantage of the ARM CPU. This may shock you but sane software development takes time - and certainly developers will want to add some more features to their software and they are not going into a 4 month crunch window if they can avoid it.

Yep. I'm increasingly of the mind that anything that needs a complex GPU solution, maybe involving HBM2E, is 2021. Intel models are the stopgap until Apple can get that house in order.

The Air and MBP13 are good to go this year. Maybe the Mac Mini as well. All of them are simple deviations from the A14. The Air possibly using it as-is. All can use LPDDR5... the Air may even just have it layered on if it's using the iPhone part.

The MBP16, the iMac Pro, and the Mac Pro are all a lot more challenging. Going to need a lot more GPU cores and some kind of high bandwith memory solution for graphics. I'd expect the iMac and MBP16 to both be N5P 2H 2021. And the Mac Pro not until 2022.

 

[thedocbwarren]

ARM with PCIe has been done (NVIDIA) so it's always possible they create an interface for current GPUs if they need high-end for Mac Pro.

Yep. I'm increasingly of the mind that anything that needs a complex GPU solution, maybe involving HBM2E, is 2021. Intel models are the stopgap until Apple can get that house in order.

The Air and MBP13 are good to go this year. Maybe the Mac Mini as well. All of them are simple deviations from the A14. The Air possibly using it as-is. All can use LPDDR5... the Air may even just have it layered on if it's using the iPhone part.

The MBP16, the iMac Pro, and the Mac Pro are all a lot more challenging. Going to need a lot more GPU cores and some kind of high bandwith memory solution for graphics. I'd expect the iMac and MBP16 to both be N5P 2H 2021. And the Mac Pro not until 2022.

 

[pshufd]

ARM with PCIe has been done (NVIDIA) so it's always possible they create an interface for current GPUs if they need high-end for Mac Pro.

First round, though, it would be easier to implement just one GPU solution. It would be absolutely wild if they implemented their own high-end GPU solution - thereby competing with nVidia and AMD - though indirectly.

 

[thedocbwarren]

Might be wrong but I doubt Apple will do that. I can see them using theirs as the Intel iGPU alternative though (probably widely better as well.)

First round, though, it would be easier to implement just one GPU solution. It would be absolutely wild if they implemented their own high-end GPU solution - thereby competing with nVidia and AMD - though indirectly.

 

[kaans]

Honestly if they use AMD/Nvidia, their ARM initiative will be at least 50% less effective

Intel is 10 times more reliable than GPU manufacturers, CPU's rarely fail, but GPU's fail all the time

With 16" Macbook, we suffer because Apple can't run AMD properly: https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/16-is-hot-noisy-with-an-external-monitor.2211747

So if they indeed use an external GPU, it'll all be pointless, Intel only performs bad because Apple intentionally drives them to 100Celsius, they are able to work more ecologically, they could be slightly underclocked and always work around 50C's, these are all possible

But with GPU's, it seems it's not that easy, probably to avoid issues, they drive the GPU with 20W's and it's always on in most scenarios

 

[thedocbwarren]

I agree on the laptop side yes, but not for desktop. Different concept and not tied to all the power/heat issues with Intel.

Honestly if they use AMD/Nvidia, their ARM initiative will be at least 50% less effective

Intel is 10 times more reliable than GPU manufacturers, CPU's rarely fail, but GPU's fail all the time

With 16" Macbook, we suffer because Apple can't run AMD properly: https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/16-is-hot-noisy-with-an-external-monitor.2211747

So if they indeed use an external GPU, it'll all be pointless, Intel only performs bad because Apple intentionally drives them to 100Celsius, they are able to work more ecologically, they could be slightly underclocked and always work around 50C's, these are all possible

But with GPU's, it seems it's not that easy, probably to avoid issues, they drive the GPU with 20W's and it's always on in most scenarios

 

[awesomedeluxe]

Honestly if they use AMD/Nvidia, their ARM initiative will be at least 50% less effective

Intel is 10 times more reliable than GPU manufacturers, CPU's rarely fail, but GPU's fail all the time

With 16" Macbook, we suffer because Apple can't run AMD properly: https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/16-is-hot-noisy-with-an-external-monitor.2211747

So if they indeed use an external GPU, it'll all be pointless, Intel only performs bad because Apple intentionally drives them to 100Celsius, they are able to work more ecologically, they could be slightly underclocked and always work around 50C's, these are all possible

But with GPU's, it seems it's not that easy, probably to avoid issues, they drive the GPU with 20W's and it's always on in most scenarios

As a guy with a MBP 15 from 2012 with a perpetually ailing GPU... yes. Apple can do better and they should do better, sooner rather than later. I support the future where Apple Silicon replaces traditional discrete graphics solutions ASAP.

 

[hajime]

How likely will the first generation of ARM based MBP be powerful enough to be a workstation faster than the MBP 16" 2019?

 

[kaans]

100% - but will it be useful and without issues, I doubt it

Apple has it's way with numbers, they never released something slower

 

[hajime]

Do you guys think Apple will introduce a new design language for the ARM MacBook Pros? It seems like a good time when they're changing basically everything else (software design + processor + graphics). There's also reports that the new chips + graphics could lead to thinner, lighter, cooler (temperature) designs.

But also, Apple just updated the MBP 15 to 16 design with new thermals, and I don't really know what they'd do to change their design. Apple might also consider it safer to keep the same design and say "it's the same Mac, but performs this much better." Thoughts?

With Jony gone and arrival of ARM MBP, are they going to make an even thinner MBP?

 

[DanMan619]

How likely will the first generation of ARM based MBP be powerful enough to be a workstation faster than the MBP 16" 2019?

I think it potentially could be. If people's speculation on how the A12Z chip in the ARM Mac Mini dev kit could scale up are close, than an ARM 16" MBP out powering the 2019 16" MBP is nearly certain. I don't think Apple would be doing this if they didn't do the math/tests themselves and show that their chips could at least be equal. I think the bigger challenge will just be waiting for pro-apps to get ported over. I think some will and just take their sweet time doing so. And a few may not bother to port. But in either instance i think whatever emulation solutions Apple has will get people by in the meantime. Most people using those pro-apps to make money aren't going to be early adopters of ARM Macs anyway though.

 

[ultrakyo]

With what A12X/Z can do at the moment, my product line up prediction with Apple Silicon will be:

- Macbook Air 13” fanless design with previously Macbook 12” footprint. Possibly 4 Performance Core + 4 Efficiency Core and this will have standard GPU cores to keep the price low.

- Macbook Pro 14“ - 6 Performance Core and 4 Efficiency Core. Probably will have better GPU or more GPU Core than Air and16GB RAM for base model.

Macbook Pro 16” - 8 Performance Core + 4 Efficiency Core. GPU will be approximately twice of Pro 14” with at least 16GB of RAM.

currently A12Z GPU is around 1.2TFlops and 5600M can do 5.3 TFlops. With the advancement of A14 + 5nm process +increase in thermal package, I think Apple Silicon will be able to ship high performance macbook with real GPU horsepower to smaller devices such as Air and 14” which current models only has mediocre 1 TFlops iGPU. Imagine the possibility of Apple Arcade and AAA games on these devices for non Pro users as well. This still excludes other current tech benefits such as neural engines.

Mac Mini performance will be insane as well for the size with Apple Silicon. Mac Mini Pro perhaps?

Now pro apps need to catch up with the hardware transition.

 

[hajime]

I think it potentially could be. If people's speculation on how the A12Z chip in the ARM Mac Mini dev kit could scale up are close, than an ARM 16" MBP out powering the 2019 16" MBP is nearly certain. I don't think Apple would be doing this if they didn't do the math/tests themselves and show that their chips could at least be equal. I think the bigger challenge will just be waiting for pro-apps to get ported over. I think some will and just take their sweet time doing so. And a few may not bother to port. But in either instance i think whatever emulation solutions Apple has will get people by in the meantime. Most people using those pro-apps to make money aren't going to be early adopters of ARM Macs anyway though.

By the time the app catches up, the 2nd generation of MBP with ARM may be out. So, the best thing to do is to keep the current MBP 16" 2019 and use it until it cannot get the job done or when 2nd generation MBP with ARM comes up?

My main problem with my MBP16" is that it only has 16GB RAM and it cannot run Linux natively. Better if it has 4K resolutions. Besides grid problem of OLED screen and backlight problem of IPS panel, I found the 4K screen resolution of the P53 and P73 good for my work.

 

[applesed]

Are you sure the mbp cant run any Linux?

 

[hajime]

Are you sure the mbp cant run any Linux?

I only do it under Parallels. I would prefer to do it natively.

 

[DanMan619]

By the time the app catches up, the 2nd generation of MBP with ARM may be out. So, the best thing to do is to keep the current MBP 16" 2019 and use it until it cannot get the job done or when 2nd generation MBP with ARM comes up?

My main problem with my MBP16" is that it only has 16GB RAM and it cannot run Linux natively. Better if it has 4K resolutions. Besides grid problem of OLED screen and backlight problem of IPS panel, I found the 4K screen resolution of the P53 and P73 good for my work.

Me personally, if you already have a 16" MBP then yeah i'd just hold onto that and sit back and watch the transition happen at your own leisure. If you had an older system i would understand there's more impatience and want to upgrade. With a current 16" MBP though you'd probably fine waiting till ARM Mac gen 3 or 4 even. It's up to you and if you feel like your current system is or isn't doing the job though at the end of the day. Just know that if you do make the switch early you will be at the mercy of software compatibility and completion of ports. Which may go swiftly or may not, depending on the program.

 

[applesed]

I only do it under Parallels. I would prefer to do it natively.

I mean I know the T2 chip might have made it harder, but i still think people are running some Linux distros on current Macs. It used to be a thing.

 

[hajime]

Me personally, if you already have a 16" MBP then yeah i'd just hold onto that and sit back and watch the transition happen at your own leisure. If you had an older system i would understand there's more impatience and want to upgrade. With a current 16" MBP though you'd probably fine waiting till ARM Mac gen 3 or 4 even. It's up to you and if you feel like your current system is or isn't doing the job though at the end of the day. Just know that if you do make the switch early you will be at the mercy of software compatibility and completion of ports. Which may go swiftly or may not, depending on the program.

I wonder how the trade-in value of the MBP 16" 2019 will be pre and post ARM MBP arrival. I know the value is not good selling to Apple but it may be better than selling it to an unknown person.

 

[DanMan619]

I wonder how the trade-in value of the MBP 16" 2019 will be pre and post ARM MBP arrival. I know the value is not good selling to Apple but it may be better than selling it to an unknown person.

Trade in/re-sale value is almost always better selling it to unknown person. It's just more hassle because you have to field offers and meet up with the person, but you get the money right then and there. Trading in to Apple you'll get a little less money but it's way easier to do, but you have to wait to get your money because they have to inspect the machine you send them.

 

[WindowsLaptop]

Thinking about selling my 2020 MBP 13" 2 Thunderbold 16 GB. Bought it before the price increased, so I wouldn't lose as much money. Those ARM Macs just sound so much better...

 

[Nugget]

Thinking about selling my 2020 MBP 13" 2 Thunderbold 16 GB. Bought it before the price increased, so I wouldn't lose as much money. Those ARM Macs just sound so much better...

That’s a weird thing to say given that Arm macs don’t exist and nobody has any idea what they will be like.

 

[WindowsLaptop]

That’s a weird thing to say given that Arm macs don’t exist and nobody has any idea what they will be like.

I mean its pretty much a safe bet, that it will be faster and have a better battery life. And it also seems to be pretty clear, that the transition will go smoothly.