Buy or wait?: The perpetual question that drives us crazy

[The Loaf]

Little bit of advice needed here. I’m not the kind of person who updates my machine very often. I had Macbooks/Powerbooks for several years, but then tried out an Intel Mac Mini, which I’m still using, but want to go back to a MacBook Pro.

I was planning on picking up my new machine this summer, but ended up being on the road for a long time, and by the time I was back there were rumors about the M2 machines being released before Christmas. Super excited, I figured I could wait, even though I’m limping along with my current set-up.

With the latest rumor of M2 machines not coming until Spring 2023, I’m in a quandary. Keep limping along and wait, or buy the M1 machine? I’m looking at a 14” M1 Max, 24-core GPU, and 1TB SSD. This configuration comes in at $3099.00 from Apple, or $2649.00 refurbished (I’m fine with refurbs from Apple), saving $450.00

I’ve always been the type to buy the newest tech I can, if possible. Now I’m stuck either buying 2021 tech, albeit with savings, or painfully waiting until Spring, 5 or 6 months possibly… Is there any rule of thumb as to when cost savings is worth it vs. savings down the line when your technology needs updating (thus requiring it’s own cost)?

I know the only person who can answer this is me, ultimately, but just wondering if other people have a formula they turn to? Other things to weigh out: I know any purchase with the M chips will be fantastic for my purposes, and waiting will be painful and slow. And I’m not sure how much additional life an M2 will give me over an M1…, but it would be going against my longtime approach to throw money at “old” tech. MacRumors Buyers Guide says “Don’t Buy,” for what it’s worth. What do you think?

 

[glhiii]

Got a $400 discount on the M1. Can't imagine the M2 will be that much better -- see the new iPad Pro update, which is 10% faster or so.

 

[mdhaus72]

I think a lot of it comes down to what you're going to use the machine for. The M2 MacBook Pros will most certainly be faster...but as mentioned above, it may not be that impactful overall based on how meager the upgrade was for the new iPad.

I bought a 16" M1 Max with a 32-core GPU, 32 GB of RAM and a 1 TB drive back in August. At the time, I knew that there was always a chance that the new laptops would be announced later in the fall. But for me, the speed and power I was getting with the computer made it worth it for me to go ahead with it. Just because a newer model is faster, it doesn't necessarily mean that you need it or that there will be that large of a difference with your workflow.

 

[Pakaku]

It's all M-series anyways, I don't think it matter so much to wait these days. The previous series won't be that much worse than the next series. So just get it if you need it now, wait if you can put it off, as usual

 

[maflynn]

Personally as we get into the holiday season, and the M1 MBPs are being discounted, they offer an excellent opportunity to get a great computer for less money. The M2 while I'm sure will be an excellent computer, will also most likely be even more expensive then the M1 was at time of release, i.e., Apple raising prices.

 

[The Loaf]

Personally as we get into the holiday season, and the M1 MBPs are being discounted, they offer an excellent opportunity to get a great computer for less money. The M2 while I'm sure will be an excellent computer, will also most likely be even more expensive then the M1 was at time of release, i.e., Apple raising prices.

Well, that's good feedback. Thanks. It seems like most people are saying don't wait. Another way to approach this is by simply asking what kind of bumps are expected with the M2's? If it's relatively minor, that kind of relieves my worry. And maflynn, I didn't realize there was any kind of history of Apple discounting products around the holidays. When would that happen (typically)?

 

[maflynn]

asking what kind of bumps are expected with the M2's

I believe the M2 MBA seems to be reporting around 10 or 15% increase over the M1, but with an overall decrease in battery performance

 

[NoBoMac]

MacRumors Buyers Guide says “Don’t Buy,” for what it’s worth.

But think that was based around rumors of new Macs in October. Now looking at maybe four month wait and possibly longer (if supply chain issues make for a long wait list) So...

Personally as we get into the holiday season, and the M1 MBPs are being discounted, they offer an excellent opportunity to get a great computer for less money. The M2 while I'm sure will be an excellent computer, will also most likely be even more expensive then the M1 was at time of release, i.e., Apple raising prices.

This. Especially if that 15% performance bump in the next models is not particularly needed and at an inflated price.

M2 will be like any new tech, it's "obsolete" the moment it's release, because the next better thing is coming.

Need it "now" and what's out there will work for a good while, go with the deal(s).

 

[james2538]

I know the only person who can answer this is me, ultimately, but just wondering if other people have a formula they turn to? Other things to weigh out: I know any purchase with the M chips will be fantastic for my purposes, and waiting will be painful and slow. And I’m not sure how much additional life an M2 will give me over an M1…, but it would be going against my longtime approach to throw money at “old” tech. MacRumors Buyers Guide says “Don’t Buy,” for what it’s worth. What do you think?

So I've researched the hell out of rumors the past month and unless Apple throws a curve ball this is what you can expect on the next generation machine (most likely to least likely):

1. 100% Likely - Faster Chips - Guaranteed otherwise there would be no reason to update. The guessing game is whether the fabrication node will be 3nm or a 5nm refinement. My money is on 3nm and I believe this is the reason for the delay from this fall into next year. TSMC has already started volume production of 3nm and revenue is expected in Q1 2023, which means chips shipping to clients.
   • If it stays on the 5nm node then expect performance gains of 10-15%, that is roughly what the M1 > M2 achieved in the 13" MacBook Pro.
   • If it moves to 3nm then expect I'd expect stronger performance gains and some efficiency/battery life improvements as well
2. 95% Likely - WiFi 6E and Bluetooth 5.3 - We saw these on the iPad Pro update last month
3. 60% Likely - UHS-III SD Card or Faster - I'm pretty sure this along with the HDMI port on the MacBook Pro share a Thunderbolt 4 Lane (hence us missing one port) so its a minimum of 32 Gbit/s they have available.
   • UHS-II supports up to ~2.5 Gbit/s transfer rate but Apple caps the current port at 2 Gbit/s. UHS-III would support up to 5 Gbit/s. SD Express requires at least 8 Gbit/s
   • The HDMI/SD Card ports use about 16.9 Gbit/s of combined bandwidth, well below Thunderbolt 4's minimum of 32 Gbit/s. They could easily bump the SD Card speeds up if they kept the HDMI 2.0 port.
4. 50% / 30% Likely - 120Hz HDMI / HDMI 2.1 - This would be harder to fit in with the current single Thunderbolt 4 Lane
   • HDMI 2.0 can transfer 14.4 Gbit/s, while HDMI 2.1 can transfer up to 42 Gbit/s. 4K at 60Hz requires about ~12.5 Gbit/s, 4K at 120Hz requires ~26 Gbit/s, 4K at 120Hz + HDR requires ~32.2 Gbit/s
   • While Apple has put 120Hz displays into the MacBook Pros and iPads they still don't have a standalone external display capable of high refresh rate. One is rumored to be coming.
   • Mac OS cannot push >60Hz over HDMI (even via a USB-C to HDMI 2.1 adapter). The HDMI external display refresh rate on Macs is gimped in software, as Intel Macs running Windows have no issue outputting 120Hz. I could see this changing with the release of a high refresh external display. However, we likely won't be seeing HDMI 2.1 until the release of Thunderbolt 5 (80 Gbit/s of theoretical bandwidth).
5. 30% Likely - Colors - iPad Pro still only come in Silver/Space Gray after their latest update so I doubt we'll be seeing Midnight or Starlight on the MacBook Pros
6. 5% Likely - Anything else like a redesign, OLED display or Face ID (both not likely till 2025+)

Apple generally likes to release new MacBook Pros from mid-February to early March so I'd expect we will see them announced then, possibly alongside an Apple Silicon Mac Pro.

With that information decide if it's worth waiting for you. Generally the more decked out machine you have the better value the Apple refurbished store is, since it is a % off discount from new. Performance wise per dollar spent the current refurbished Pros could even be a better value than what will be released. Unless you need the absolute fastest single core performance, live in a congested WiFi zone, or transfer from SD cards a lot it's probably not worth waiting.

The current discounts available from 3rd party retailers and the refurbished store (Apple lowered prices last month) on the M1 MacBook Pro should ease the pain of any depreciation vs a new model. Not to mention, as a first generation Apple Silicon machine it will be supported for years into the future (unlike the 2019 Intel MacBook Pro) which will dull any resale hit.

As a final note, if you are outside the US I urge you not to wait as there is a very good chance Apple may raise prices on the new MacBook Pros. If you are inside the US I would not worry about this as much since Apple has been carrying the $1999/$2499 price point for the larger Pros for almost 20 years (the 2003 Powerbook cost the same!).

 

[philrock]

Personally as we get into the holiday season, and the M1 MBPs are being discounted, they offer an excellent opportunity to get a great computer for less money. The M2 while I'm sure will be an excellent computer, will also most likely be even more expensive then the M1 was at time of release, i.e., Apple raising prices.

I feel like there is some value in this but they are already heavily discounted right now. I believe they discounted them in anticipation of M2s coming out then they were delayed. Costco and Best Buy have them discounted up to $550 depending on the model... That's pretty deep. How much more are they likely to go?

 

[MayaUser]

Got a $400 discount on the M1. Can't imagine the M2 will be that much better -- see the new iPad Pro update, which is 10% faster or so.

it will be much better, in spring are far better chances that the M2 pro/max to have even higher bandwidth and more transistors 3nm architecture , im guessing cpu will be over 30% increase with gpu over 50%

 

[MayaUser]

Little bit of advice needed here. I’m not the kind of person who updates my machine very often. I had Macbooks/Powerbooks for several years, but then tried out an Intel Mac Mini, which I’m still using, but want to go back to a MacBook Pro.

I was planning on picking up my new machine this summer, but ended up being on the road for a long time, and by the time I was back there were rumors about the M2 machines being released before Christmas. Super excited, I figured I could wait, even though I’m limping along with my current set-up.

With the latest rumor of M2 machines not coming until Spring 2023, I’m in a quandary. Keep limping along and wait, or buy the M1 machine? I’m looking at a 14” M1 Max, 24-core GPU, and 1TB SSD. This configuration comes in at $3099.00 from Apple, or $2649.00 refurbished (I’m fine with refurbs from Apple), saving $450.00

I’ve always been the type to buy the newest tech I can, if possible. Now I’m stuck either buying 2021 tech, albeit with savings, or painfully waiting until Spring, 5 or 6 months possibly… Is there any rule of thumb as to when cost savings is worth it vs. savings down the line when your technology needs updating (thus requiring it’s own cost)?

I know the only person who can answer this is me, ultimately, but just wondering if other people have a formula they turn to? Other things to weigh out: I know any purchase with the M chips will be fantastic for my purposes, and waiting will be painful and slow. And I’m not sure how much additional life an M2 will give me over an M1…, but it would be going against my longtime approach to throw money at “old” tech. MacRumors Buyers Guide says “Don’t Buy,” for what it’s worth. What do you think?

wait for it...it can be the 3nm M2 pro/max Mbp, and even if its not, the M1 will be even cheaper then

 

[ilikewhey]

I feel like there is some value in this but they are already heavily discounted right now. I believe they discounted them in anticipation of M2s coming out then they were delayed. Costco and Best Buy have them discounted up to $550 depending on the model... That's pretty deep. How much more are they likely to go?

might go as deep as the microcenter deal, 14inch m1 max 64gb 1tb for 2500.

 

[barkomatic]

I'm usually a bit of a contrarian when it comes to this question so when its past about 9 months after release I prefer to wait until the next version to get the most life out of a purchase.

However, these deals that I'm seeing on the current model are pretty incredible and with inflation being what it is the next update may be more expensive -- or at least not as heavily discounted in the future. Most people already updated their equipment during the pandemic and Apple might slash production.

 

[OasisNYK]

I'm usually a bit of a contrarian when it comes to this question so when its past about 9 months after release I prefer to wait until the next version to get the most life out of a purchase.

However, these deals that I'm seeing on the current model are pretty incredible and with inflation being what it is the next update may be more expensive -- or at least not as heavily discounted in the future. Most people already updated their equipment during the pandemic and Apple might slash production.

This. I would normally say wait but the pricing right now is too good to pass up.

You can get a lot of computer pretty cheap at the moment. This will not be the case when the new ones come out.

 

[PauloSera]

The answer is ALWAYS buy. This question should not drive anyone crazy. There is never anything "wrong" with the product available right now. Buy what you need, when you need it, and stop worrying about what else is coming.

 

[Danae02]

I am wondering if the price will go even lower before Christmas. I got a MBP M1 with the Best Buy deal, but don’t plan on opening it (Christmas present).

 

[OasisNYK]

The answer is ALWAYS buy. This question should not drive anyone crazy. There is never anything "wrong" with the product available right now. Buy what you need, when you need it, and stop worrying about what else is coming.

I disagree with this. If there is an imminent update then don’t buy.

4-6 months isn’t imminent IMHO - 1-2 months then probably makes sense unless you absolutely need the equipment.

Nothing worse than buying and 14 days letter new stuff comes out. That being said, you also don’t want to be waiting forever.

 

[OasisNYK]

I am wondering if the price will go even lower before Christmas. I got a MBP M1 with the Best Buy deal, but don’t plan on opening it (Christmas present).

I did the same. I don’t see them going much lower IMHO. They are already discounted at a pretty significant %. It’s possibly but unlikely. If it happens, at least the holiday return window is in effect.

 

[tomstone74]

Waited for quite some weeks/month already - after selling my MBA M1 8/8/16G/1TB - if a MBP 14" with a M2 Pro gets released this year, as I'm mainly interested for 32GB RAM for my software dev use case. I won't wait longer, instead placed an order for a refurbished 14" 8/14/32GB/1TB.

 

[Danae02]

The Best Buy deal is gone- I thought it would run through Black Friday, but they removed it as of today. They may discount these again on Black Friday, but who knows.

 

[Uddername]

I think if this was 14 months ago, it would make sense to wait - we knew a big and special upgrade was happening to the Pros. However now, regardless of when the next incarnation will be released, we know it's not going to be a big jump. Just refined. So purchase now and wait until the next big jump occurs

 

[ignatius345]

Little bit of advice needed here. I’m not the kind of person who updates my machine very often. I had Macbooks/Powerbooks for several years, but then tried out an Intel Mac Mini, which I’m still using, but want to go back to a MacBook Pro.

Any of the Macs you're considering will feel a LOT faster than your Intel Mini. I seriously doubt you're going to regret an M1 MacBook Pro.

A lot of perceived dissatisfaction with a year-old machine is sheer marketing. There'll be a keynote, a bunch of people raving in videos about the performance. Maybe some cool design detail or a new color. You (as so many of us do) are falling prey to the brighter, shiner thing they're dangling in front of you. But in six months, the shine will be off it and it won't feel like your new toy anymore. Ask yourself if that just puts you back in more or less the same place you'd be with a 2021 M1 Mac. There's always gonna be some benchmark that's better, but are you running benchmarks all day or are you just using your machine?

Also, not for nothing but Amazon is running some crazy sales right now:

Deals: Amazon Introduces Massive Discounts on 2021 MacBook Pros, Save Up to $499

It's been a few weeks since we tracked deals on every model of the 2021 MacBook Pro, but today Amazon is providing just that, with a new all-time...

www.macrumors.com

 

[transphasic]

I disagree with this. If there is an imminent update then don’t buy.

4-6 months isn’t imminent IMHO - 1-2 months then probably makes sense unless you absolutely need the equipment.

Nothing worse than buying and 14 days letter new stuff comes out. That being said, you also don’t want to be waiting forever.

Another factor is how much of a forward movement in capability and speed will the next iteration provide. I just bought a MBP on a massive sale from a retailer because the Apple store staff said the next MBP version would only be slightly faster, if at all. Now that the release has been pushed back several months at least, I feel even more vidicated in buying.

 

[scottcampbell]

I just bought a baseline MBP for $400 off. I figure the M2s will bring a price increase with them.

I used to wait to buy the newest model. Now I consider this: The more money I spend, the longer I'm going to feel obligated to keep the device. So take a discount and consider upgrading 2-3 years earlier.