Can the Market support 3 OS's (IOS, Android and Win 8)

[vcoleiro1]

As per the title, can the market support 3 OS's , particularly the tablet market.

First there was IOS, then Android , now we have Win 8 + RT.

Personally I cant imagine all three environment surviving with healthy user bases in the next 10 years . One or 2 will win out IMO. Begs the question which will prevail. and which won't

Will the the market share of IOS dwindle to become like OSX ie a minority OS in the Tablet market - Will it become a monopoly. Will Android or Win 8 become dominant or fail.

What do you think?

 

[maflynn]

Will the the market share of IOS dwindle to become like OSX ie a minority OS in the Tablet market - Will it become a monopoly. Will Android or Win 8 become dominant or fail.

The major difference between iOS and Android/Windows is that with iOS you have one manufacturer producing devices. With both Android and Windows platforms you have a multitude of manufacturers creating a wide variety of devices. iOS will diminish as the competition will provide more options, there's basically less choices with iOS over windows and android.

 

[VulchR]

OP forgot RIM.

 

[vcoleiro1]

The major difference between iOS and Android/Windows is that with iOS you have one manufacturer producing devices. With both Android and Windows platforms you have a multitude of manufacturers creating a wide variety of devices. iOS will diminish as the competition will provide more options, there's basically less choices with iOS over windows and android.

I agree with what you have said, it is exactly what I was thinking could possibly happen.

You almost think Apple should , wait for it, License out IOS. They would lose HW sales revenue but gain revenue on IOS license sales. Crazy I know, but food for thought.

 

[GroundLoop]

OP forgot RIM.

I think that the world has forgotten about RIM.

GL

 

[zbarvian]

OP forgot RIM.

4 definitely can't. 3 is questionable, but I'm also inclined to say no. I don't think there's much room for more than iOS and Android currently.

 

[GroundLoop]

I agree with what you have said, it is exactly what I was thinking could possibly happen.

You almost think Apple should , wait for it, License out IOS. They would lose HW sales revenue but gain revenue on IOS license sales. Crazy I know, but food for thought.

That will never happen as over 50% of Apple's revenue is from iPhone Hardware sales. And that is if you are only considering licensing it out for phones. If you include iPad and iPod, that IOS plays a role in over 75% of Apple's revenue. It would be the worst business move imaginable.

GL

 

[maflynn]

You almost think Apple should , wait for it, License out IOS.

Apple's goal for their software is to lead to hardware sales. With the licensing of iOS they lose out on the hardware aspect.

They learned this lesson the hardware by licensing out Mac OS and being undercut by clone makers. Sales of apple hardware shrank and it took the return of Jobs to turn things around.

 

[The Face]

For iOS and Android, yes. For Windows mobile, no. iOS and Android both bring their own unique features to the table and are completely dominating the market,, Windows brings nothing but a hideous lackluster operating system and a few wannabe iOS and Android features.

I can see Windows mobile going to same way as Zune did. It tried to be different, but failed miserably when people realised there were superior alternatives.

 

[danish.]

Tricky one. I'm inclined to say no, and that only two OS can survive - but I'm not sure which will go.

Software-wise, once users start to feel familiar with windows 8 on their PCs, that will be a sensible direction to go for them. It's not as much of a walled garden as iOS (at least not the non-RT version, and let's wait a while before we pass judgement even on the RT-version). For most consumers who want functionality, familiarity, ease of use and don't care about the tech-side of things, Windows and iOS are more logical choices than android.

Factoring in hardware, iOS has an advantage, at least for now. Android is suffering from fragmentation on the hardware-front in my eyes, and Windows will as well. But the value of familiarity could give Windows the upper hand in that battle.

In the end, as long as Apple produce beautiful hardware and iOS as it was (i.e. stop releasing versions of iOS that have major bugs, or features that are not ready yet - here's looking at Siri and Maps), iOS will survive, and similar hardware choices for Windows and Android would mean the familiarity of Windows would likely clinch it for Microsoft.

 

[mattopotamus]

Tricky one. I'm inclined to say no, and that only two OS can survive - but I'm not sure which will go.

Software-wise, once users start to feel familiar with windows 8 on their PCs, that will be a sensible direction to go for them. It's not as much of a walled garden as iOS (at least not the non-RT version, and let's wait a while before we pass judgement even on the RT-version). For most consumers who want functionality, familiarity, ease of use and don't care about the tech-side of things, Windows and iOS are more logical choices than android.

Factoring in hardware, iOS has an advantage, at least for now. Android is suffering from fragmentation on the hardware-front in my eyes, and Windows will as well. But the value of familiarity could give Windows the upper hand in that battle.

In the end, as long as Apple produce beautiful hardware and iOS as it was (i.e. stop releasing versions of iOS that have major bugs, or features that are not ready yet - here's looking at Siri and Maps), iOS will survive, and similar hardware choices for Windows and Android would mean the familiarity of Windows would likely clinch it for Microsoft.

really good post. I think all 3 will survive, but if only 2 were to make it, it would have to be IOS and windows like you said. They both have so many ties to other products. You are right, the android market is very fragmented and it mostly has to do with so many OS's floating around. Also, windows has the PC world and apple has the MAC world....two things that are stable and not going anywhere.

 

[The Face]

Factoring in hardware, iOS has an advantage, at least for now. Android is suffering from fragmentation on the hardware-front in my eyes, and Windows will as well. But the value of familiarity could give Windows the upper hand in that battle.
.

Android isn't suffering from fragmentation, in fact quite the opposite. The more devices Android starts running on, the bigger and better it will get. It's open source, so anyone manufacturer who uses it as their OS on their devices can tweak it and optimize it to suit their needs.

You see Android devices everywhere, whether it be on cheap handsets or be it on the flagship premium handsets by the top manufacturers. Heck it's even used in cars, on TV's, sat navs, phones, tablets etc.

Android is growing more and more everyday, it's suffering from nothing and is currently dominating the mobile market by a long shot.

If any OS is in trouble, it's windows mobile.

 

[flameproof]

Sure it can! Just look at the PC market, there are probably 100 different OS out there. Most supermarket have also more then 2 types of fruits and it works for them.

 

[danish.]

Android isn't suffering from fragmentation, in fact quite the opposite. The more devices Android starts running on, the bigger and better it will get.

That's a fair point, and I didn't mean that they were suffering as in it is hurting the OS per se. What I meant was that Android is available on a very wide number of devices, some of which function better than others, and that this is the case for Windows too. For that reason, Android and Windows can both benefit from really good, flag-ship hardware, but are likewise open to being hurt by second-rate hardware in way that Apple is not. So Apple has a hardware advantage, and the decider between Android and Windows is likely to be familiarity, and for the average user this is likely to point them towards Windows.

 

[mattopotamus]

Sure it can! Just look at the PC market, there are probably 100 different OS out there. Most supermarket have also more then 2 types of fruits and it works for them.

What are you talking about....a PC either runs windows or linux...and very few people have anything lower than XP.

 

[maccompatible]

What are you talking about....a PC either runs windows or linux...and very few people have anything lower than XP.

XP, Vista, 7, 8, and Ubuntu are probably the only PC OSs that average people are capable of/comfortable using.

 

[mattopotamus]

XP, Vista, 7, 8, and Ubuntu are probably the only PC OSs that average people are capable of/comfortable using.

yeah, the person i quoted said over 100..

 

[Menneisyys2]

yeah, the person i quoted said over 100..

... if you count in all official versions of MS-DOS, PC-DOS still in use in, say, hospitals (legacy DOS apps). But definitely not on home computers. Not even with the major Linux distros / versions.

 

[Rigby]

I think there is room for 3. Apple will continue doing its thing (i.e. a tightly integrated hardware/software/services ecosystem), and the other handset vendors welcome Windows 8 because they don't like to be completely dependent on Google. We'll see how the market shares develop, but one thing is certain: the competition is good for us as consumers.

 

[vcoleiro1]

In a lot of ways, the Tablet market is like the PC market was at its infancy .
In the end, the OS which will be adopted by the most manufacturers and also developers will succeed. Its like the PC race all over again.

You cant help but think the big money maker out of all of this will be the company that ends up making the leading/dominant OS. As HW sales will fraqment to a zillion manufacturers as it did with the PC market. The only real big winner will be the OS provider. ie like it was Microsoft in the world of PC's.

 

[Rodimus Prime]

I am going to say yes it can. Rim I see being knocked out completely and WP coming up. Long term I see iOS being in 3rd place. Apple honestly runs the greatest risk of becoming the next Palm or RIM simply because so much of their business now completely depends on iOS.

 

[onthecouchagain]

Seriously, what is taking RIM so long to release BB10?

 

[The Face]

It wouldn't surprise me if they went bust.

 

[ReanimationN]

It probably can, although WP8 will, unfortunately, probably run a distant third.

I can see Windows 8 tablets carving out a sizeable chunk of the tablet market in the next few years, especially as people get tempted to just get a W8 tablet to do double duty as their PC and tablet.

 

[flameproof]

yeah, the person i quoted said over 100..

I am just guessing. Point is, there are more then 3 OS in the PC market. I alone have to deal with Xp, Win 7, soon Win 8, Win NT, Win 2000, Ubuntu (2 different distributions), Cent O/S, sometimes some other Linux family members.

In the smartphone world there is also Bada, Symbian, WebOS, S40, Meego, and soon probably Aliyun. All have some market share.