Do you think Apple will make a Macbook SE? And at what price point?

[senttoschool]

Laying down some facts:

• Apple makes the iPhone SE ($400), Watch SE ($280), and iPad (SE in spirit for $330)
• The iPhone 8 launched at $699. The iPhone SE, based on the iPhone 8 but with a faster SoC, is $300 cheaper.
• Cheapest Macbook Air right now is $1000
• Apple once sold an Intel Macbook Air for $899 standard price
• On Black Friday this year, the M1 Macbook Air went on sale for $899 which suggests Apple's margins are high for Apple Silicon Macs
• Report suggests 5nm Apple Silicon costs less than $100 to make
• Same report suggests cheapest Intel Mac chips cost Apple $200-$300
• Apple wants to become more of a services & subscription company, post "peak iPhone" era
• In order to sell more services and subscriptions, Apple has employed an "SE" strategy to grab market share
• Ming-Chi Kuo predicts an "affordable" Mac in 2022
• The average selling price of laptops online is $730

 

[senttoschool]

My personal predictions for a 2022 standard lineup:

• $750: Macbook SE 13" with the shape of the current Macbook Air using a Retina LCD screen, 8GB RAM, 256GB SSD, M2 SoC with fewer GPU cores, 15 hrs battery life, TouchID
• $1100: Macbook Air 14" using a Mini-LED screen, 8GB RAM (upgradeable to 16GB), 512GB SSD, M2 SoC with fewer GPU cores, 15 hrs battery life, TouchID
• $1500: Macbook Pro 14" using a Mini-LED screen, 16GB RAM (upgradeable to 32GB), 512GB SSD, M2 SoC with full GPU cores, 20 hrs battery life, FaceID
• $2600: Macbook Pro 16" using a Mini-LED screen, 16GB RAM (upgradeable to 64GB), 1TB SSD, M2X SoC, 25 hrs battery life, FaceID

I predict that Apple will get cheaper at the entry-level and more expensive at the Pro level. They've done this for iPhones and iPad. This is an excellent strategy because they make monstrous profits at the premium level while also taking a large market share with excellent value SE products.

 

[Avenida]

I am not sure...but I don't see it unless they make a 12" air?

I don't think the laptop type of consumer would care about a cheaper alternative, most people will just skip it to get the middle ground model and the middle ground model is with the PRO and not in the air segment.

The line up is designed to make you jump to the middle of the pack.

For the air to be the middle of the pack, it would have to have MBP capabilities and no compromises. The air is all about compromising somewhere.

 

[senttoschool]

I am not sure...but I don't see it unless they make a 12" air?

I don't think the laptop type of consumer would care about a cheaper alternative, most people will just skip it to get the middle ground model and the middle ground model is with the PRO and not in the air segment.

The line up is designed to make you jump to the middle of the pack.

For the air to be the middle of the pack, it would have to have MBP capabilities and no compromises. The air is all about compromising somewhere.

I don't think the 12" will come back. It's too similar to the 13" Air but the Air is significantly better in just about every way.

Apple's most popular laptop is actually the Air, not the 13" Pro.

 

[matrix07]

Apple once sold an Intel Macbook Air for $899 standard price

That Air has 11" screen so unless Apple goes that path I don't see the Air at that price, and I don't see Apple make a re-design MBA in a few years at least. It's just perfect as it is.

 

[senttoschool]

That Air has 11" screen so unless Apple goes that path I don't see the Air at that price, and I don't see Apple make a re-design MBA in a few years at least. It's just perfect as it is.

Yea, I don't see Apple ever making a laptop with a screen smaller than 13" again. It just doesn't differentiate from a large iPad enough.

I think 13" will be the minimum screen size for Macbooks from now on.

I agree that the MBA is nearly perfect in its design. I could see the bezels shrinking though when and if the Air uses Mini-LED. The SE would stay LCD and use the same thick bezels.

 

[thenewperson]

Yes, though I'm guessing in the interim we get an M1 MBA staying around at a reduced price while an M2 MBA (potentially with a redesign) takes over. I'm guessing $799, although I could see $699 too.

 

[senttoschool]

Yes, though I'm guessing in the interim we get an M1 MBA staying around at a reduced price while an M2 MBA (potentially with a redesign) takes over. I'm guessing $799, although I could see $699 too.

I think the price will be $700 - $750. I think if the SE is $800, it just doesn't have that "wow what a deal" feeling that the iPhone SE has.

 

[thenewperson]

I think the price will be $700 - $750. I think if the SE is $800, it just doesn't have that "wow what a deal" feeling that the iPhone SE has.

True, I just went with the starting price of the iPad Pros currently. If the can manage 700-750 that'd put a lot of price pressure on Windows OEMs.

 

[Falhófnir]

No, the Mac mini has a $699 price point, but for a MacBook the added cost of battery, display, hinges, keyboard, trackpad etc add up to make the $999 MacBook Air the laptop form factor equivalent (even omitting the fan).

If you look at Windows competitors, all begin making compromises that Apple won't as you drop below approx $1k. The Surface Laptop Go has a mediocre display, no keyboard backlight and plastic body parts, and if you go for the entry option just 64GB slow eMMC memory. By the time you get to a reasonable 256GB real SSD the price is back to $899, even with the other compromises. The new XPS 13 also doesn't start below $1,000, you have to get the old model for that.

Instead Apple will probably rely on third parties offering discounts on the Air, $899 isn't unusual in sales. They could even leave the M1 model on sale for a reduced $899 when the M2 model comes out, but I don't expect them to build a machine specifically for a $750 price point.

 

[NewUsername]

Who knows? In the short term, I don't think it is that likely though. At this moment, Apple won't release a model with less than 8GB RAM, less than 256GB SSD (unless for education), less than a Retina display, less than a force touch trackpad, less than an M1…

So except for a 12" screen and perhaps only one USB port instead of two, there isn't really a way Apple can make a cheaper MacBook at this moment whilst keeping margins as high as they are now.

That might of course change in 1-2 years. The new MacBook Air would have an M2, the SE would still have an M1. The new one would have Mini-LED, the SE would still have LCD. In that case, you would have a case for, say, a 799$ 12" MacBook, which would be a great notebook for students.

However, Apple will never make a truly cheap notebook, and 799 would probably already be too cheap. Apple will want to keep its premium name. 799 would be the price of an iPhone 12, so I don't even think that's realistic. And at 899, I don't think many people would buy it.

We might of course see a 12" MacBook Air for 899, otherwise identical to the 13" model. That would basically be a return to the situation of around 2015. But I don't know if that's enough SE for you. It would rather be a MacBook mini to make the iPhone comparison.

 

[Bug-Creator]

My prediction:

- "odd" sizes will go away
- new lineup will be 12/14/16" but with thinner bezels making the 14" about as big as the 13"
- MBPro will come in 14 and 16"
- MB(Air or no qualifier) will be 12 and 14"
- they might do a somewhat "crippled" base 12" with a sweet price tag for education only

 

[macnmac]

like a mac chromebook?

 

[senttoschool]

However, Apple will never make a truly cheap notebook, and 799 would probably already be too cheap. Apple will want to keep its premium name.

Premium name... like a $400 iPhone, $280 Watch SE (BF sale for $230), $330 iPad, $100 Homepod Mini?

 

[Falhófnir]

Premium name... like a $400 iPhone, $280 Watch SE (BF sale for $230), $330 iPad, $100 Homepod Mini?

The point is none of those have to compromise on build quality or the experience of their respective OS in the way a MacBook SE inevitably would have to. Where do you make cuts to the Air to get that $250-300 saving? Non retina display? eMMC storage? Something would have to give, and I don't think Apple want to bring a thusly compromised product to market. That's where it hurts their premium brand, the user experience, not because they aren't charging at least four figures for it.

 

[KPOM]

Yea, I don't see Apple ever making a laptop with a screen smaller than 13" again. It just doesn't differentiate from a large iPad enough.

I think 13" will be the minimum screen size for Macbooks from now on.

I agree that the MBA is nearly perfect in its design. I could see the bezels shrinking though when and if the Air uses Mini-LED. The SE would stay LCD and use the same thick bezels.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a smaller MacBook Air return. The M1 chip is perfect for it. A smaller screen would allow them to lower the price a bit while maintaining margins. The wild card here is the 11" iPad Air. If it gets updated next year, it's hard to see Apple selling a $749 Mac.

 

[Argon_]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a smaller MacBook Air return. The M1 chip is perfect for it. A smaller screen would allow them to lower the price a bit while maintaining margins. The wild card here is the 11" iPad Air. If it gets updated next year, it's hard to see Apple selling a $749 Mac.

Purely a question of available OS. Some people just won't want an iPad OS equipped machine as their main computer, although this could be my bias as an enthusiast.

 

[Zazoh]

No. I had the 12 rMB it was $1200 USD base. They sell a cheap iPad. They are not going to sell a cheap laptop.

 

[MBAir2010]

Im just happy and relieved that the new macbook M1 have actual keys....i read that a touch screen is in the works tho, i think from macworld this summer.

 

[Joseph_DiMaggio]

Purely a question of available OS. Some people just won't want an iPad OS equipped machine as their main computer, although this could be my bias as an enthusiast.

I think this is fair. iPadOS has some serious limitations imposed by Apple which make it pretty useless outside of an entertainment device usage case.

 

[Apple_Robert]

I would love a 12” M1. I don’t see that happening any time soon so, I will be getting the M1 MBA instead.

 

[senttoschool]

The point is none of those have to compromise on build quality or the experience of their respective OS in the way a MacBook SE inevitably would have to. Where do you make cuts to the Air to get that $250-300 saving? Non retina display? eMMC storage? Something would have to give, and I don't think Apple want to bring a thusly compromised product to market. That's where it hurts their premium brand, the user experience, not because they aren't charging at least four figures for it.

According to the Trendforce report, Apple already saves $100-$200 by using its own chips over Intel chips. So that's $100-$200 savings already.

Second, Apple can re-use the manufacturing plants and supply chains built for the current Macbook Air 13" for the SE rather than letting it go to waste.

The iPhone 8 launched at $700. Three years later, the iPhone SE, based on the iPhone 8, launched at $400 and has a brand new SoC. That's a $300 reduction in cost.

Third, electronics get cheaper over time. The current air uses 256GB of SSD and 8GB of ram. In 2 years, these parts will get cheaper.

Lastly, Apple can lower its profit margins for SE products, as it does for its other SE products like the iPhone SE and Watch SE. Apple can then make it up by selling services and subscriptions to these users, upsell them in a few years, or getting them to buy other Apple devices once they're entrenched in the ecosystem.

 

[senttoschool]

If you look at Windows competitors, all begin making compromises that Apple won't as you drop below approx $1k. The Surface Laptop Go has a mediocre display, no keyboard backlight and plastic body parts, and if you go for the entry option just 64GB slow eMMC memory. By the time you get to a reasonable 256GB real SSD the price is back to $899, even with the other compromises. The new XPS 13 also doesn't start below $1,000, you have to get the old model for that.

All of these companies pay the Intel tax. Apple just got out of it.

In the case of Surface laptops, Apple has the volume advantage and probably better supply chain efficiencies than Microsoft. Microsoft Surface laptops are low volume and more of an inspirational product line for PC makers.

In the case of Dells or HP laptops, Apple can make money by selling services and subscriptions to these users, upsell them in a few years, or getting them to buy other Apple devices once they're entrenched in the ecosystem. It's much harder for Dell and HP to make money from their own customers.

Lastly, cheap Intel chips often provide an unacceptable level of performance. Thus, other manufacturers have to set a high minimum price or sacrifice in other areas like you mentioned.

It's quite reasonable to assume that the M2 SoC in a future Macbook SE will still be faster than 90% of all Windows laptops. The current $400 iPhone SE is faster than any Android phone you can buy in 2020.

 

[Robospungo]

I don’t see Apple ever selling a current model laptop under $999 MSRP again. There’s a chance the 2020 Air might be the last they sell at that price.

This opinion will change if Apple does with laptops what they do with phones (continuing to sell previous years versions while also selling a new version).

I guess it’s possible they sell a 2021 Air for $999 and give the 2020 model a $100 price cut. Might be a really smart strategy, come to think of it.

 

[senttoschool]

No, the Mac mini has a $699 price point, but for a MacBook the added cost of battery, display, hinges, keyboard, trackpad etc add up to make the $999 MacBook Air the laptop form factor equivalent (even omitting the fan).

Mac Mini can drop in price or offer superior specs to a Macbook SE. IE, for $700, a Mac Mini might come with twice the RAM and twice the storage of a Macbook SE.

Remember, we're talking about 2022, 2 years from now. I fully expect the Mini to increase its base specs by then.

In addition, you can possibly think of a Macbook SE as a $600 iPad Air with a $150 keyboard. The iPad Air is probably even more expensive to manufacture because it has a brighter, low latency touch screen display, more sensors, much better cameras, and require smaller components.