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deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
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I expect the I/O to improve considerably on the low-end in the coming years. Let's face it, this is the first time Apple releases desktop hardware, so the smart thing is not to over-extend.

With move to 3nm probably get back to what it was on Intel systems in terms of number of displays supported but merge in with DisplayPort v2 so resolutions pragmatically go up. Sure.

But relative to what AMD and Intel will be doing in 2022+ at the top end of the desktop and into the major workstation space , they'll still be relatively behind. The competition is going to move forward in the future also.
 

Boil

macrumors 68040
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Oct 23, 2018
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I expect Aple to move to a NUMA architecture with their own SoCs. Increasing the SoC-size will prove difficult, adding 64GB RAM as modules will take up considerable space, but adding multiple SoCs with local RAM will scale almost linear. Most likely not with the M1, which is probably a Single-SoC but with a Desktop-class M1X.

The Desktop-class SoC will probably:
  • remove the iGPU and either
    • add an Apple-designed one on the PCIe-bus
    • add an nVidia/ATI card on the PCIe-bus
  • use the freed up space for additional CPUs
    • adding Firestorm Cores
    • removing a couple Icestorm Cores, probably leaving 2 or so
    • adding NE cores
With the power budget of a Mac Pro you are more restrained by the complexity of the cooling system required for running ten 15-20W SoCs than the power draw of the SoCs themselves.

Doubt Apple will remove the integrated graphics in their Mac SoCs...

Think of it from the point of view of an audio guy, one who wants as many open PCIe slots as possible for Pro Tools hardware interface / DSP cards... By including the iGPU, it keeps PCIe slots open...

When you buy a desktop, the last thing you’re concerned about is saving a few watts when checking email. These machines are bought for speed and if these so-called efficiency cores are there then you immediately ask why your computer is being neutered for slowness when you buy it for speed.

Remember ‘efficiency cores’ is just marketing speak for slow and small cores. That’s fine But not is a real computer.

Let me rephrase it. If you have 4 e-cores that could be gutted and fit 2 normal cores then you would go with the latter. Otherwise people who buy these systems will be wondering why they're netted with slow cores when they want speed. That's the trade of you are willing to pay for real computing power. The Mac mini is simply reclaiming the crown of the lowest powered desktop on the planet. The 2018 Mini was too powerful which is why it has been castrated. Think of what they're doing here. There is classic market segmentation planned with the ARM M1 and the ARM P1 chips.

Ah...! I see you are one of those argue your point over & over, no matter how much others tell you it is wrong...

Apple has zero reason to not include Efficiency cores in their Mac SoCs...

Yes, power usage is a thing, but there is also the issue of heat generation...! Performance cores doing a task the Efficiency cores could do will generate more heat than said E cores... Heat is something to reduce, so E cores make sense for their intended task...
 

leman

macrumors Core
Oct 14, 2008
19,521
19,674
But relative to what AMD and Intel will be doing in 2022+ at the top end of the desktop and into the major workstation space , they'll still be relatively behind. The competition is going to move forward in the future also.

Relative to what AMD and Intel will be doing in 2022 at the top end of the desktop and into the major workstation space, entry level Apple chips will still be relatively behind, yes. Which one shouldn't find surprising at all.
 

leman

macrumors Core
Oct 14, 2008
19,521
19,674
Let me rephrase it. If you have 4 e-cores that could be gutted and fit 2 normal cores then you would go with the latter.

Doesn't make any sense. Efficiency cores are perfect for running background and low-priority tasks, freeing up the thermal headroom for performance cores to do more critical stuff. If you run those tasks on main cores you will have to throttle the system. Efficiency cores improve the responsiveness of the machine.

The Mac mini is simply reclaiming the crown of the lowest powered desktop on the planet.

Mac Mini is two times faster than most of towers Dell sells, while costing about the same.

The 2018 Mini was too powerful which is why it has been castrated.

It's still there. You can buy it from Apple Store. Nothing has been "castrated".
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
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Pro Desktop chips won't have 'efficiency' cores as they're useless and consume space on the chip.

I put off responding to this earlier because decided to wait until there was more quantitative data to highlight just how substantively wrong this is. So let's just jump to AnandTech's review for the Mini.


"... I also included multi-threaded scores of the M1 when ignoring the 4 efficiency cores of the system. Here although it’s an “8-core” design, the heterogeneous nature of the CPUs means that performance is lop-sided towards the big cores. That doesn’t mean that the efficiency cores are absolutely weak: Using them still increases total throughput by 20-33%, depending on the workload, favouring compute-heavy tasks. ..."
https://www.anandtech.com/show/16252/mac-mini-apple-m1-tested/5

The efficiency cores were more effective the "harder" the workload was. Their impact is lower where there is just lightweight multiple work to get done (on a single task). They are far more effective at handling a a broader array of processes/threads that have completely different instruction streams and/or data streams.

Why? The same reason why embrassingly parallel , high intensity workloads are more effect on GPU cores. (which is relatively much less power consuming than the "Super power consuming" Performance cores in CPUs. More function units tends to trump more clock speed.

8 arithmetic units at 1.8GHz = 14.4 max compute results. ( 2 units for 4 cores = 8 )
4 arithmetic units at 3.6GHz = 14.4 max compute results. ( 4 units for 1 core = 4 )

Where the E cores would be "useless" is if have some narrow code that invoked a function unit that the E cores don't have. (e.g., the Apple Martix Extension AMX). [ E cores have the basic vector handling and mainstream math function units ] . In that case yeah.

0 AMX at 1.2 GHZ = 0
1 AMX at 3.0 GHz = 1

that would be a major "win" with an additional P core.


One big "power" core isn't going to out hustle 4 "smaller" ones if split the work up evenly to the cores.

119365.png

(same page as the first linke above. )

The four power cores are have a result of 21.60 on the "int" benchmark. That boils down to about to 5.4 per core. If added another P core would get about 27. And yet the 4 efficiency cores added boost the score to .... 28.85. Which is a bigger number.

Apple matched the gen 11 ( Tiger Lake ) Intel SoC there with the 4 P and the E core are allowing them to put on a gap. At some point Intel wil release H series ( 8 cores ) that will do better on "int" but probably do worse on iGPU ( and Power).



That pretty much demonstrates quantitatively that the notion you are peddling here is at best flawed and largely more based on "smack talking" than insight.

If there was tons more bandwidth , power TDP , and several other things Apple many or may not do because the drop performance/watt, then adding two more P cores would get a better number.

With bigger TDP and transistor budgets , Apple probably will add more P cores ( along with more memory I/O bandwidth), but they are also quite likely to shoot for lower core counts than the mainstream desktop AMD and Intel models. ( Intel is about to shift gears with what should be gen 12 desktops ( Alder Lake). ). But the E cores and iGPU ( and Neural and Secure Enclave , and the rest of the SoC die here ) probably are not going away.



Besides earlier in the review :

"... Because one core is able to make use of almost the whole memory bandwidth, having multiple cores access things at the same time don’t actually increase the system bandwidth, but actually due to congestion lower the effective achieved aggregate bandwidth. I’ve especially noted this when using the performance cores in tandem with the efficiency cores in memory copies – 4 big cores peak out at 59GB/s memory copies, but as soon as an efficiency core is added this reduces to 49GB/s, going down to 46GB/s when all cores are active, pointing out to a bottleneck in the system somewhere. ..."

What Apple needs for the desktop variants further up the stack is more I/O bandwidth. A single core saturating the Memory controller is nice for "single thread drag racing" benchmark "porn" contests but if have an application that has a complicated model coupled to also doing graphics and they are all sharing the same bandwidth. Not going to beat a RX 560 while 1-2 P cores are almost completely soaking up the whole bandwidth to the unified memory.

For most apps this sharing will work because there is a balance between display and computation. But walk and chew gum at the same time ... this won't work as well. Going up the CPU food chain toward the Xeon W class Apple has far more an I/O problem than a "too many E cores" problem.

Apple's design here is skewed toward maxing out the single thread drag racing score. I'd be very surprised if Apple every got to point of scaficing that just to beat AMD/Intel in some maximum "core count" marketing war. Folks looking at the Mac Pro 2019 or Threadripper and saying that's the core count target Apple has to hit... probably are on the wrong path.


What you'll probably have is two division of chips for Pro and for power savings. We got the latter which is why those products were dumped on the market last week.

I'm highly doubtful Apple is going to do fundamentally different cores for the desktop. For better or work people tend to buy mid-high range systems based on core counts. With the E cores Apple can bump that count by 4 with the same space that pragmatically just 1 P core could fit. As long as folks are just buying "12 is better than 6 which is better than 4 " then that gets them to a high count with a lower cost die ( and probably don't have the I/O bandwidth or transistor budget) to swap in

The follo w on Macs will be Pro and the laptops will be the systems they didn't have time to built yet. Remember, designing unique chips is a very expensive process so Apple will be trying to reuse designs across as many platforms as possible to reduce costs.

That huge expensive is highly likely why they aren't going to go to a completely different focused internal bus and memory hierarchy strategy.

A path to a larger System level cache where "half" of the cache is feed by another memory subsystem and get another 4P and another 8 GPU cores sitting around a bigger "round table" with the stuff that is already there. But doing that 4-5 times? I'm more than a bit skeptical that Apple is going to pay to "fork" that far off the design building blocks that is largely being paid for with the iPhone/iPad .

And for scaling up the GPU at some point it is just "cheaper" to put a PCI-e bus handling system in there and just enable large GPU only chips with a incrementally different graphics driver model ( unified just with much larger latentcies . )
 
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turbineseaplane

macrumors P6
Mar 19, 2008
17,374
40,152
I would LOVE it if they'd make a 16/17" MacBook Air with an M chip.

I've always wanted more screen, but don't want to necessarily have that mean "battleship laptop!"
 
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nikidimi

macrumors newbie
Nov 13, 2020
17
12
The Mac Pro is really interesting, because they have to develop a special CPU (and GPU) for it and the R&D is really expensive and there a lot of things that are specific for such high-end machine. It's not just putting cores together. And they don't sell a lot of Pro's so I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense (financially). Assuming this is correct, I'm wondering what they are going to do:
  1. Subsidize them from iPhone sales
  2. Dump them
  3. Keep them on x86
  4. Use ARMs from Amazon for example
  5. Develop Apple Cloud Services in order to have more uses for them ?
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
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I expect the I/O to improve considerably on the low-end in the coming years. Let's face it, this is the first time Apple releases desktop hardware, so the smart thing is not to over-extend.

The top end AMD/Intel models are usually the last to pick up bleeding edge I/O updates in the chipset. Intel's mobile CPU/SoCs hare USB4 before the desktops did. You mentioned that this was Apple's "first desktop" so not over reaching on that front. Well the further "behind" stuff on the Intel is the high end desktop ( not counting esocteric Intel RAID stuff that Apple (and most non Windows operating systems ) never uses . ) . The other things would likely even further ahead in 2022-23 timeframe.

We'll see what Apple's "desktop" brings. I wouldn't be surprise though if they took this limited GPU+Thunderbolt controller they build and just extended by just one more DPv1.4 stream. Still wouldn't technically qualify for Thunderbolt 4 and still have same problems with old "2 stream to single screen" that this mini has.

They need a "not so unified" large pool to get up to four very high resolution frame buffers. [ They could do that with 2GB if HBM or some "eDRAM' that was nominally local to the GPU ( and some GPU MMU extentions to make it NUMA accessible from the non-GPU cores. )

Not only would Apple have gone "short" ( not over-extend) on the M1 port, but also the other variants upstream also ( M1X , M1Z may not get back to parity with current Intel TB controllers + iGPU combos either). Perhaps get back to current state with Intel discrete TB controllers on a 3rd GPU MPX module. Technically would not have dumped Thunderbolt v3 but not particularly moved forward on it either on this iteration. [ Frankly, not trying to go "toe-to-toe , feature for feature" with Intel on your first custom Thunderbolt controller probably would be a good idea to limit risk. ]
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
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The Mac Pro is really interesting, because they have to develop a special CPU (and GPU) for it and the R&D is really expensive and there a lot of things that are specific for such high-end machine. It's not just putting cores together. And they don't sell a lot of Pro's so I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense (financially). Assuming this is correct, I'm wondering what they are going to do:
  1. Subsidize them from iPhone sales

Use iPhone revenues to build a SoC that has nothing to do with iPhones? Probably not going to happen.
Build a SoC that loose money on and use revenues from other products to pay for some vanity project in a "Rob Peter to pay Paul" fashion. Also not likely to happen at all.


  1. Dump them

No. There is a rumor of a "half" sized Mac Pro. Chop out slots 3-7 ( or 3-8) and use a desktop SoC that can cover just those 2-3 slots left. They probably won't dump the high end pro models. There is a decent chance they will resize them.

Is that permanent? Maybe not. It is expensive to do a much lower volume run (and bigger) SoC die. But there is also lots of revenue built into a "full size" Mac Pro that starts at pragmatically $6K. If take digits out of the volume of dies made and put more digits on the price of the SoC that can roughly balance out.

$100 SoC * 20M = $2B
$10,000 SoC * 200K = $2B

[ round numbers around to illustrate moving around the digits. Not exact pricing for Apple SoCs. ]


  1. Keep them on x86

Highly unlikely long term since Apple said they were going to quit in two years. There is a window for a "kick the can down the road" refresh in early 2021 to extend time into 2020 for models that won't make the transition until then. But I would be extremely surprised if any "new" Intel model shows up after WWDC 2021. I don't think they will be done by WWDC 2021 ( or even early-mid Fall 2021) , but probably no more Intel models at that point. ( just coasting on what they have left for more time. )



  1. Use ARMs from Amazon for example

Extremely likely not since Amazon won't sell their stuff anymore than Apple is going to sell M-series to anyone else.

Somewhat possible would be :

Ampere

https://www.anandtech.com/show/1594...ytes-2u-with-80-arm-n1-cores-pcie-40-and-ccix

or Marvell



Or Apple just taking an implementation license on V1 or N2



If just wanted to do a fight the core count "war" chip with some relatively small Apple "tweaks" thrown on top . Doubtful they would, but that is a more probable than getting something from the 3rd parties. Those other folks are aiming where macOS isn't. ( > 60 cores ).


  1. Develop Apple Cloud Services in order to have more uses for them ?

Apple buying Ampere and Marvell powered boards to put into their cloud data centers to run Linux ... that's probably is going to happen (if hasn't already). But that is completely tangential to anything on macOS or any new rack Mac Pro (or Mini server ) model . Apple has large goals to reduce power consumption at their data centers. That will probably drive them to some mix of x86-64 and ARM servers in their data centers.
 
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Boil

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Oct 23, 2018
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@deconstruct60

So what might Apple do in regards to an Apple Silicon powered (smaller) Mac Pro...?!?

I really want to see Apple put out a Mac Pro that gives folks a good reason for switching from AMD/Intel/Nvidia boxes running Linux & Windows...

I am looking at it from the DCC (Digital Content Creation) point of view...

Video Editing / Compositing / 3D Modeling / Texturing / Rendering / Audio Editing / Music Creation / Etc. ...


Low-end Mac Pro is:

8c/16t Xeon CPU
32GB 2666 DDR4 ECC RAM (four DIMMs)
256GB SSD-based Storage (single module)
Radeon Pro 580X GPU (36CU / 8GB GDDR5)


Top-end Mac Pro is:

28c/56t Xeon CPU
1.5TB 2933 DDR4 ECC RAM (twelve DIMMs)
8TB SSD-based Storage (dual modules)
(2) Radeon Pro Vega II Duo GPUs (256CU / 128GB HBM2 total)


A huge performance range, from low-end to top-end...! A M1X chip (more CPU & GPU cores, more RAM, added PCIe connectivity/functionality) might cover the low-end, but matching the top-end Mac Pro is the trick...?!?
 

mebpenguin

macrumors newbie
Mar 12, 2015
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https://www.macrumors.com/2020/04/23/12-core-arm-macs-2021-report/

Back in April Bloomberg reported that Apple was developing 3 SoCs based on A14 and one of them has a 12-core (w/ 8 Performance + 4 Eifficient) CPU.

Given that the M1 only has an 8-core CPU, my guess is that 12-core CPU variant would be the M1X for the upcoming 14 & 16 inch model, or even the low end 24 inch iMac.

And the last one (probably called M1Z) will be the desktop class SoC for the larger iMac.

Btw, I hope Apple will bring back target display to the iMac. As far as I recall, 5K iMac doesn’t support target display is because of Intel/bandwidth.
I think you're on the right track, similar to what others have said. My guess is that the M1X (or mid-tier 12-core model will also go into a higher-end Mac mini, so I'm holding out for that.
 

deconstruct60

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Mar 10, 2009
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@deconstruct60

So what might Apple do in regards to an Apple Silicon powered (smaller) Mac Pro...?!?

I really want to see Apple put out a Mac Pro that gives folks a good reason for switching from AMD/Intel/Nvidia boxes running Linux & Windows...


Really boils down to just how far up the stack Apple want to remove the dGPUs from the rest of the Mac line up.
It looks like that dGPU in iMac 21-24" and MBP 16" is likely toast if they just add 4 more P cores, 2-8 more GPU cores + more cache (system on die and perhaps much bigger GPU only cache; 2GB HBM ) + more memory I/O bandwidth ( to LPDDR5 when more quantity available on two more 'channels' ) to a bigger die. The current die is around 120mm^2 so 280-300mm^2 wouldn't be exactly huge. ( and add one more integrated TB controller for 2 more ports and some internal DP switch to pull in some external DP streams. )

That actually might help if there is a "M1-mid" (perhaps 'M1X' ) that isn't trying to cover the 27" iMac also.


If iMac 27 ( and iMac Pro) SoC had 1-2 x16 PCI-e v4 subsystem also attached. Along with x4-x8 lanes for some 10GbE and discrete Thunderbolt provisioning then that would be enough to use the same chip "M-iMac" in the iMac , iMac Pro , and "half" Mac Pro (with just one MPX bay and perhaps a replaceable re-driver I/O-audio card). If going to lean on dGPUs then could scale back the Apple GPU cores to 'pay' for the better I/O subsystem and wouldn't have to grown the die much. ( just added a different set of "consumers" to the central internal bus between major "core" type groups. )

That's "M1-upper" ( perhaps 'M1Z' )


If Apple's objective is to push the dGPUs out from the 27" iMacs also then that would cause problems for Mac Pro. ( either chiplet Apple GPU or discrete package. ). if they are going through great pains not to add a substantive PCI-e controller complex to the die the the path to even a "half" Mac Pro is limited. Could end up with a "half" Mac Pro with two x8 PCI-e v3 slots which were only a good match to a much narrower set of cards. ( lots of high prices audio cards don't need much in bandwidth. )




I am looking at it from the DCC (Digital Content Creation) point of view...

Video Editing / Compositing / 3D Modeling / Texturing / Rendering / Audio Editing / Music Creation / Etc. ...


Low-end Mac Pro is:

8c/16t Xeon CPU
32GB 2666 DDR4 ECC RAM (four DIMMs)
256GB SSD-based Storage (single module)
Radeon Pro 580X GPU (36CU / 8GB GDDR5)



Adding 2-4 more P cores to M1 would take care of that. I suspect the iMac will cover that zone. May see disappearance of a iMac Pro as a label. Or perhaps Apple would add another screen size.

A "half" wouldn't cover all of that where folks were just more than two slots , but (LP)DDR5 would probably give them a better range if dogmatically sticking to soldered RAM. Four DDR5 packages probably could cover up to 128GB.
The minimal GPU is actually kind of closer to W5500 and an enhanced iGPU may cover that. ( so could leave MPX empty is some BTO configurations. ) . But the "half" would be mainly targeted at just this subset.

It would be helpful for a full sized Mac Pro process it Apple got off the soldered to the package RAM packages with the large iMac . It doesn't make much sense in the large desktop where they are not pressed for space. I suspect it may be "cheaper" for Apple to only build memory controllers that solely deal with custom RAM packages that they contract for. If it is an option to squeeze more money out of customers with exclusive custom RAM then that just means more money for the Scrooge McDuck money pit.




Top-end Mac Pro is:

28c/56t Xeon CPU
1.5TB 2933 DDR4 ECC RAM (twelve DIMMs)
8TB SSD-based Storage (dual modules)
(2) Radeon Pro Vega II Duo GPUs (256CU / 128GB HBM2 total)

This would need a SoC where Apple where I suspect they aren't going to cover in the M1 ( and depending on how fast "refreshed" M2 ) series. IMHO , Pretty could chance they'd wait until 3nm to do all of the below with a smaller die than 5nm would require. ( so looking at mid-2023 or so after peak iPhone demand bubble at 3nm. Or jumping onto TMSC more cost optimized 4nm node (better fit with larger dies without the 3nm additional expensive. ). )

That core count Apple won't try to match even if get to a SoC primarily targeted at a "full Sized" Mac Pro. ( More likely cap at 16 cores ( 12 P and 4 E ).

Same thing with the max RAM capacity. Although probably get back to DIMMs being supported by the SoC. ( If ECC is missing bring it back. )

Back to two MPX bays and slots 5-8 being provisioned with PCI-e lanes. And probably a reduction of PCI-e switches on the logic board to handle the that provisioning. ( roll a hefty chunk of that up into the SoC)




A huge performance range, from low-end to top-end...! A M1X chip (more CPU & GPU cores, more RAM, added PCIe connectivity/functionality) might cover the low-end, but matching the top-end Mac Pro is the trick...?!?

I don't think Apple isn't going to cover that whole range in all of those categories. The 1TB and "max possible core count" aspects that flowed out of server market requirements that the W3200 picked up for "free" I strongly suspect Apple is going to ignore. Will get "more cores " than iMac , but not be tightly coupled to what Xeon SP and AMD EYPC or Ampere/Marvell/Amazon are doing with N-series from ARM.


That all fits with Apple slide that lower power is a higher priority to them than performance. ( moving laptops more up into desktop performance space and desktops incrementally closer to laptop power. ) . That when couple the main focus of the primary application cores to phones and laptops then highest power consumption for maximum multi-user (or heterogenous ) workload performance isn't the objective.
 
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Woochoo

macrumors 6502a
Oct 12, 2014
551
511
The Mac Pro is really interesting, because they have to develop a special CPU (and GPU) for it and the R&D is really expensive and there a lot of things that are specific for such high-end machine. It's not just putting cores together. And they don't sell a lot of Pro's so I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense (financially). Assuming this is correct, I'm wondering what they are going to do:
  1. Subsidize them from iPhone sales
  2. Dump them
  3. Keep them on x86
  4. Use ARMs from Amazon for example
  5. Develop Apple Cloud Services in order to have more uses for them ?
Use the same iMac chip (iMac Pro).

If there are 2 more chips, one is clearly for the 14" MBP (or high end 13" if no new design), the 16" MBP and entry level iMacs (24"). Then the top chip will be for high end iMacs, iMac Pro and Mac Pro, with different memory caps to differentiate those.
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
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Use the same iMac chip (iMac Pro).

If there are 2 more chips, one is clearly for the 14" MBP (or high end 13" if no new design), the 16" MBP and entry level iMacs (24").

Probably also the Mini. A Mini variant that doesn't backslide on ports that is aimed in the mainly > $999 range
In general the number of Macs that share the same chip is likely to go pretty far up. Dright more to the iPhone , iPad Pro set up where attach different size screen (and cameras and something not on the SoC ) to create different product.


Then the top chip will be for high end iMacs, iMac Pro and Mac Pro, with different memory caps to differentiate those.

Not just different max capacity but the modularity of the Memory. If Apple tries to lock down the sources where can get memory on those models too then I suspect they are going to loose substantive numbers of folks. The higher up market they go then the more substantive the number gets.

In some sense , whether iMac Pro (with no "user accessible" RAM) was a precursor of where they primary want to go or an outlier. [ an outlier where bigger fan outlet squeezed out the "hidden behind pedestal arm" RAM door so make the CPU TPD lower so they can put it back. ]
 
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IowaLynn

macrumors 68020
Feb 22, 2015
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Server rooms just lust for small, less floor space to pay, cooler = lower a/c and of course how many watts. Massive data centers too want faster I/O from buve TB size SSD to feed.

Rackmount G5? Nope. Mac Pro? Again. No. But Apple and 4TB of RAM ain't likely.
 

Anonymous Freak

macrumors 603
Dec 12, 2002
5,604
1,388
Cascadia
I sincerely doubt there will be any further "M1" Macs. *MAYBE* the entry-level iMac. Definitely not any of the "actual pro" Macs.

The M2 will be the big leap forward. Too much needs to change for the M1 to be viable in any product it isn't in now (other than maybe the lowest-entry-level iMac.)


I do expect similar segmentation as you suggest with the M2 and later, though. One for the systems it's in now (plus entry iMac,) one for "actually Pro" MacBook Pro, higher-spec Mini (that is still Intel) and mainstream iMac, one for iMac Pro and Mac Pro. (And if they really want to go nuts, throw the highest end one in a reborn Mac Mini Server.)
 

iFan

macrumors regular
Jan 3, 2007
248
723
The most interesting thing, to me, is that Apple was deciding all of this back in 2016/2017 per Johny Srouji's statement of 3-4 year planning cycles for the chips.

They're already working on the M4!
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
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The most interesting thing, to me, is that Apple was deciding all of this back in 2016/2017 per Johny Srouji's statement of 3-4 year planning cycles for the chips.

They're already working on the M4!

That presumes that the M-series will be on same cadence as the mainstream A-series SoCs are. That is a pretty big leap. The A-nnX (iPad Pro) variants that are "forks" off the A-Series have been skippng the odd number ones to get to a large node process shrink to arrive at new modes.

A10 -- A10X ( A10X 10nm )
A11 -- nothing. (another 10nm on mainstream side)
A12 -- A12X ( A12X 7nm )
A13 -- pragmatically nothing ( another 7nm on mainstream side and A12Z is exact same die as A12X just turn on a GPU core that was turned off. )
A14 -- M1 (fairly likely the same die as A14X ) ( 5nm )
A15 --- < if follow same pattern probably nothing. Or perhaps a larger M1 variant on same major node > ( On mainstream N5P or maybe N4 .. but somewhat likely another 5nm on mainstream. A larger M1 variant on N5P that has lower defect rate would probably be a 'win' that Apple would take. Similar if N4 dropped wafer costs somewhat. )
A16 -- more possible A16X and/or M2
A17 -- again a passs or bigger M2 variants.
A18 -- again A18X and/or M3
A19 -- another pass
A20 -- A20X and/or M4
...

On that cadence it is maybe specifying M3 at this point. Most of the "Motion" in large swaths of other Apple Silicon power products is just on "hand me down" SoCs. Lower level iPads. AppleTV. Homepod. Watch is pretty close to be that state now too with E cores being shuffled over there.


Just because planned out 3-4 out doesn't mean also have concurrent teams running to completion stacked pipeline deep for each of those years. The bigger dies/SoC are probably going to be slower. ( more work . and if shooting for "big deal" jumps in performance ... need much larger transistor budget if trying to keep the die size the same. )


The notion that the volume of Macs is going to drive a much higher uptick in updates than the iPad Pros did. I suspect not. There are likely more variants of the M1 series that Apple has to roll out and those will take time and consume limited/fixed resources. More likely Apple will finish rolling out M1X ( and M1Z and M1Y ... ) before moving on to M2 and starting that cycle all over again.

Mac fans probably are going to be disappointed if think Macs are going to exactly mimic phones SoCs. Given there is more complexity for the M-series (versus all the "new" iPhones in a model year take the same exact SoC. Same with iPad Pros (if there is an update) it probably isn't going to come out faster than the simpler SoCs.


Apple could go into a cheesy zone where they just use some clock bumps to churn the generation numbers faster and add some minor tweak ( shades of Intel 14nm++ , 14nm+++ , ) but my guess is that they won't. That they'll fix the camera , tweak the screen , etc. on the system instead in those "in between" years to churn the system specs.
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
4,053
I sincerely doubt there will be any further "M1" Macs. *MAYBE* the entry-level iMac. Definitely not any of the "actual pro" Macs.

The M2 will be the big leap forward. Too much needs to change for the M1 to be viable in any product it isn't in now (other than maybe the lowest-entry-level iMac.)

In terms of the P and E and Neural and GPU core design changes? Probably not. What Apple needs is a bigger die with more of the stuff they already have on the die. If just add:

2 more P cores
8 more GPU cores
double system cache.
double the memory controllers to another two block of RAM packages.
add some more PCI-e lanes coming out

that could just mainly be a bigger die if they are done a reasonable just on the internal communication bus. A bigger die doesn't deserive a "M2" generational label at all. For the A series the bigger die iPad Pro variant just has a 'X' suffix attached. The number is for the generation. The suffix is an indicator of "bigger than the mainstream one".
So M1 , M1X , M1Z ( or a M1Y thrown in before get to Z ).

That's what they need that is consistent with their naming practices. What Apple doesn't need is Intel's drunk sailor hodge podge of 2-4 different naming schemes for their CPU products in different classes. Save the numbers to indicate generations ( like A-series) and just use something else to inidicate variants in the same generation.


Pretty decent chance that M2 probably isn't coming for 2 years or so. Transition is suppose to be over in two years they can't wait that long to bump the other Macs along. Maybe shrink that down to 12 months or so if going to jump to gimmicks like clock bumps for generation number bumps.



I do expect similar segmentation as you suggest with the M2 and later, though. One for the systems it's in now (plus entry iMac,) one for "actually Pro" MacBook Pro, higher-spec Mini (that is still Intel) and mainstream iMac, one for iMac Pro and Mac Pro. (And if they really want to go nuts, throw the highest end one in a reborn Mac Mini Server.)

It is not really segmentation if it is different dies. That is more SoCs to work on.... which very likely means that the smallest Mac targeted one would have to get in "line" with the other variants to get an update coming out of the pipeline.
 
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