Guesstimation for refresh?

[Hellishness]

A backlit keyboard would be nice...but has anyone noticed that the Air's keyboard is MUCH more durable than the MBPs? I haven't used the latest MBPs, but on my April '10 version (that I had before my current MBA) the keyboard was noticeably worn out in a few weeks...I'd even venture to say that it was more worn out than my current MBA keyboard (owned since Nov. 1). I really like how my keyboard looks almost new after 30 seconds with a magic eraser, and I'm now training myself to use my left thumb on the space to double it's life looking good (it and F are definitely the most worn out...).

 

[iDisk]

Heard it here 1st... Expect the next macbook air refresh between Jan 2011-Dec2012

 

[rekhyt]

Heard it here 1st... Expect the next macbook air refresh between Jan 2011-Dec2012

Very unlikely. Was predicting this as well, but Apple would definitely need a flagship computer to present along with OS X Lion, especially because Lion is a big release. The MacBook Pros with the redesign are probably going to come in Dec 2011-Jan 2012, more like.

 

[Buck987]

Why do you say that? Because the last one took that long?

you asked for a guesstimation...that mine...mostly based on getting these out right in time for the college season..

 

[Scottsdale]

So would people suggest waiting on a MBA purchase until June at this point?

From what I've seen the change to Sandybridge isn't completely straightforward as despite the boost in CPU power it will replace the existing graphics setup?

Also could the release of OSX Lion in the summer impact any refresh plans (or should it be a reason to hold off getting a MBA)?

I wouldn't wait for or expect an update in June. The MBA and even MBP aren't getting updated that quick right now. Apple and Nvidia have said the 320m would be used for some time. With the 13" MBP Apple could get away with Intel IGP due to higher voltage. I really don't expect a SB update until October if at all. I think it's much more likely Apple switches the MBA when it has Ivy Bridge or a better solution. At the end of the day, the current MBA is more capable with its C2D and Nvidia 320m than would Intel's SB with underperforming IGP.

 

[ghileman]

Days Since Update 142 (Avg = 336)

So the best guestimation I can give now is March 10 + 6.5 months. Say, october 2011.

While I'm hoping for a June (or sooner) refresh here's some reasons to believe it will come in early autumn rather than Spring/Summer:

1. Revenue smoothing - June will be iPhone 5 and Apple may want to avoid releasing other products around it for both revenue balancing and mindshare purposes.

2. Gross margins - Perhaps the key metric Wall St looks at in Apple's financials is GMs. Apple helps maintain its high profit margins by selling Air's with C2D processors and other older tech for as long as possible.Barring a shortage Apple should be able to sell C2D Airs into late summer.

3. Back-to-school - Putting aside price, the Air is a great student laptop. Timing a refresh with back to school would be good marketing.

Counterbalancing these points are the following:

1. how well are Airs selling. If the numbers slow, perhaps due to the fact that consumers (like me) are holding off until the new Sandy Bridge version comes out, then Apple may want to release something sooner.

2. Competition. The new Samsung laptop looks competitive, and Sony and Toshiba are making some advances. The C2D powered Air is looking extremely old in the tooth. This may force Apple's hand.

3. Structure of Intel deal. I can imagine Intel wanting to ramp up Sandy Bridge sales quickly and it may have a deal/incentives with Apple for earlier adoption of Sandy Bridge than Apple would ideally like.

 

[iDisk]

Very unlikely. Was predicting this as well, but Apple would definitely need a flagship computer to present along with OS X Lion, especially because Lion is a big release. The MacBook Pros with the redesign are probably going to come in Dec 2011-Jan 2012, more like.

You do know that refresh, could also mean adding thunderport (but they would need to axe a usb port) or an sdxc card slot or (everybody's dream) a Backlit keeeeeeyyyyyboard lol.... or more ram capabilities or higher capacity ssd.

The term refresh is very vague as a whole.

 

[Scottsdale]

You do know that refresh, could also mean adding thunderport (but they would need to axe a usb port) or an sdxc card slot or (everybody's dream) a Backlit keeeeeeyyyyyboard lol.... or more ram capabilities or higher capacity ssd.

The term refresh is very vague as a whole.

The whole point of Thunderbolt is to take advantage of existing Mini Displayport to eliminate need for an extra port. Therefore I don't see losing.another port or backlit keyboard as likely due to it.

The thing that concerns me is logic board space of another chip. If I could have a discrete GPU or TB, I would go with the GPU. I think this is a big concern that Apple found space for TB yet let its Pro 13" users with a lack of real graphics capabilities. I like TB but I don't understand how Apple decides how to place value on space. Why get rid of backlit keyboards on MBA? Why not give users a discrete GPU in 13" MBP? Why not eliminate optical drives when they waste so much space.

I just don't get the decision to find space for TB but not find anything better than Intel's non graphics solution with its poor performing IGP. I love TB and all of the capabilities it brings but I don't understand Apple's decisions on how and why to use space as a whole particularly in the 13" MBP line. That affects the 13" MBA as in the past all 13" models followed the same path in terms of GPU and chipset. The future looks bleak and I don't understand the decisions that gave us the current 13" MBP.

 

[iDisk]

The whole point of Thunderbolt is to take advantage of existing Mini Displayport to eliminate need for an extra port. Therefore I don't see losing.another port or backlit keyboard as likely due to it.

The thing that concerns me is logic board space of another chip. If I could have a discrete GPU or TB, I would go with the GPU. I think this is a big concern that Apple found space for TB yet let its Pro 13" users with a lack of real graphics capabilities. I like TB but I don't understand how Apple decides how to place value on space. Why get rid of backlit keyboards on MBA? Why not give users a discrete GPU in 13" MBP? Why not eliminate optical drives when they waste so much space.

I just don't get the decision to find space for TB but not find anything better than Intel's non graphics solution with its poor performing IGP. I love TB and all of the capabilities it brings but I don't understand Apple's decisions on how and why to use space as a whole particularly in the 13" MBP line. That affects the 13" MBA as in the past all 13" models followed the same path in terms of GPU and chipset. The future looks bleak and I don't understand the decisions that gave us the current 13" MBP.

The only notebook that Steve Jobs (aka Apple) is interested in at the moment are the Macbook Airs ... Why? Because Apple (Steve) did a keynote on them and Apple did advertising on the Airs .... You know when Apple (Steve) loves a product because they run ads on them ... The MacBook Pros are not on steves radar of importance (Haven't seen a Pro ad in awhile) ... Its all about thin and light and the iPhone, iPad, and MacBook Air fit that category .... Listen to what Steve said about the Airs, "The Future of Notebooks" and "The Future of Macbooks".

The 13" MBP is a prime example of what apple thinks about that line of "pro" notebooks (the 11"air has a better resolution the the 13" pro) talk about a slap in the face .... When was the last time Apple held a keynote on the MBP's ?? WWDC09, Apple at the moment cares about thin and light and us air owners should be glad about that.

The Pro updates were half assed in my opinion. Especially the 13" Model.

Apple should have done the following:

13" Notebooks are only Airs

Get rid of the white macbook and 13" Pro

The 11" air is the "new" entry Mac.

The 15" Models come in 2 configs 512MB VRAM and a 1GB VRAM. Hi-Rez screen standard now in either glossy or anti-glare. Standard 7200rpm 750 GB drives with the remaining options being SSD's. Obviously 4GB Ram Standard, and you can keep the SB Processors.

The usual I/O (ie: Thunderbolt, USB, Firewire).

Apple is screwing the pro market notebook user. But I'm an Air user (Ultimate) so yea.

 

[fyrefly]

While I'm hoping for a June (or sooner) refresh here's some reasons to believe it will come in early autumn rather than Spring/Summer:

1. Revenue smoothing - June will be iPhone 5 and Apple may want to avoid releasing other products around it for both revenue balancing and mindshare purposes.

While I agree that Apple will want to give the iPhone 5 it's own little mindshare niche, Apple released the resdeigned Mac Mini last June.

They also updated the iMacs/Cinema Displays and Mac Pros in Late-July. So summer updates aren't exactly rare.

2. Gross margins - Perhaps the key metric Wall St looks at in Apple's financials is GMs. Apple helps maintain its high profit margins by selling Air's with C2D processors and other older tech for as long as possible.Barring a shortage Apple should be able to sell C2D Airs into late summer.

But the SL9400/9600 C2D chips cost about the same as the i5/i7 LV chips, and would eliminate the need for Apple to also pay for an IGP separately. So I bet the margins would remain the same with SB in there vs. the SL9400/9600.

3. Back-to-school - Putting aside price, the Air is a great student laptop. Timing a refresh with back to school would be good marketing.

Agreed. Sell out the C2D models with the free iPod promo all summer and then unleash new models in the Fall? We'll see.

If not June with Lion, then I expect a wait until September/October till we see updates.

1. how well are Airs selling. If the numbers slow, perhaps due to the fact that consumers (like me) are holding off until the new Sandy Bridge version comes out, then Apple may want to release something sooner.

Yeah, I already mentioned that in this thread. That's ultimately all that's gonna matter. If the sales hold up, they'll keep the C2D machines longer. If sales drop off, then the update will be sooner.

2. Competition. The new Samsung laptop looks competitive, and Sony and Toshiba are making some advances. The C2D powered Air is looking extremely old in the tooth. This may force Apple's hand.

The competition is a factor, but a small one, IMHO. As shown with iPad 2 and also the 2010 MBA update - Apple's basing products on "user experience" and emotional connections vs. hardware specs.

I mean, c'mon, not many manufacturers could release low-clocked C2D machines in late 2010, charge 1K+ for them and still sell 1.1 Million machines in ~3 months.

Apple knows how to sell a computing "experience" vs. a spec sheet (like Dell or HP).

 

[fyrefly]

I just don't get the decision to find space for TB but not find anything better than Intel's non graphics solution with its poor performing IGP. I love TB and all of the capabilities it brings but I don't understand Apple's decisions on how and why to use space as a whole particularly in the 13" MBP line. That affects the 13" MBA as in the past all 13" models followed the same path in terms of GPU and chipset. The future looks bleak and I don't understand the decisions that gave us the current 13" MBP.

The decision was simple. The Sandy Bridge IGP was a 10% reduction in Graphics capabilities (like 2-6 fps in games) for 2x the CPU power.

It's easier to sell people on "2X FASTER!" than it is to sell them on "Yeah, we're one of the only people still selling C2D machines in 2011, and yeah we're asking you to pay $1500 for the same PRocessor we've had in the MacBook Pros since 2008, but if you look at the graphics chip, it's a bit faster than the one we would be forced to choose if we went with Sandy Bridge. That's better, right?"

The i7 13" MBP is faster than the FASTEST MBP from 2010. That's HUGE.

Plus, if the 13" MBP hadn't had Thunderbolt it would have been *really* gimped from a PRO standpoint. Thunderbolt = eSATA, USB 3.0, 10gbps bi-directional, etc...

Canon has already announced camcorders supporting the standard, etc... Thunderbolt is much more futureproof than a 320M, IMHO.

In Summary: 2x Faster processor and 10x faster I/O performance beat out a 10% reduction in Graphics.

 

[Patrick946]

Was predicting this as well, but Apple would definitely need a flagship computer to present along with OS X Lion, especially because Lion is a big release.

Why not the iMac then?

1. how well are Airs selling. If the numbers slow, perhaps due to the fact that consumers (like me) are holding off until the new Sandy Bridge version comes out, then Apple may want to release something sooner.

Airs are selling extremely well, and just had a major revision 5 months ago.

 

[fyrefly]

Why not the iMac then

'Cause Apple sold 4 Million Macs last quarter and 3/4 of them were laptops (and 1.1Million of them were MacBook Airs.

Airs are selling extremely well, and just had a major revision 5 months ago.

Indeed. But by June that will be 9 months after the revision. And if the airs are still selling well in June, I'll agree with you that maybe they won't be updated. But if sales drop off (perhaps in favour of the new MBPs - which are now 200-300% faster than the fastest Air) then I can see a refresh happening sooner.

 

[calvol]

Agree w/ Scottsdale, no MBA update until Ivy. I think there could be heat issues with SB.

 

[Peacemaker]

Agree w/ Scottsdale, no MBA update until Ivy. I think there could be heat issues with SB.

I think we have more heat issues with core 2 duo than SB.

 

[DarwinOSX]

Thats not an issue and its not how these things work. intel will be making Core 2 Duo chips for a long time to come and the prices just dropped substantially.

Besides Apple is one of the most efficient just in time manufacturers in the business. They don't have warehouses full of anything much less Core 2 Duo chips. Inventory costs money and they expect Intel to handle that.

June is rumor from some blog with no logic behind it.

We all know Apple can go quite long between refreshes even with new procs out. Hopefully the combination of Sandy Bridge and Thunderbolt will mean a refresh sooner rather than later. I'll snap one up as soon as they are available.

My guess is in the fall like usual but i would like to be wrong.

However, I doubt Apple has that many core 2 duo chips to hold on till spring/summer 2012. I anticipate a move to sandy bridge in June.

 

[iRun26.2]

I think we have more heat issues with core 2 duo than SB.

There are not heat issues with the current 11.6" MBA. The ULV C2D is awesome! Sandy Bridge will make it be even better. That is one of it's primary selling point (remember, the 15" and 17" have quad cores, that makes a big difference in production of heat).

The GPU is the only thing I worry about with Sandy Bridge.

 

[fyrefly]

Thats not an issue and its not how these things work. intel will be making Core 2 Duo chips for a long time to come and the prices just dropped substantially.

Prices dropped? A visit to Intel's Processor Site says that the prices for the SL9400/9600 remain the same ($316/$284). That's in the same ballpark as the i7-2657M Processor ($317) and comparable i5-2537M Processor ($250).

These processors are also 17W TDPs, meaning less than the C2D+320M, which means less heat and potentially more battery life with similar (if slightly less) graphics power and 2x faster processor power.

June is rumor from some blog with no logic behind it.

Really? Brooke Crothers at CNET (not just some Joe Blow blog) has a good track record regarding the MacBook Air/Pro. He correctly predicted back in Early December that the MacBook Pros would get Sandy Bridge/AMD Graphics and Intel Graphics only in the 13" MBP.

Who's to say the same source isn't getting him the info of a potential MBA refresh?

Apple was the first to get SB processors and fixed chipsets from Intel. Who's to say they didn't get that preferential treatment by promising Intel they'd move all MacBooks (White/Pro/Air) to SB processors in short order?

My guess is in the fall like usual but i would like to be wrong.

I've said a few times, that it'll all depends on sales, IMHO. If people keep snapping up the MBA in record numbers (MBAs accounted for 40% of all laptop sales for Apple in October-December 2010) then I bet the refresh will be delayed till fall. But if sales slow, or Apple wants to move to a standardized i5/i7 SB chipset across all the laptops (like they did when the 9400m rolled out) I could see the refresh happening in June/July.

 

[black743]

I would like to see a hard drive bump that would make 128gb the 11 inch base model. If I could get into a 128 for $999 I would so be in there. I noticed they bumped the MBP by removing the 250gb and making the base a 320 for the same price.

 

[rekhyt]

A backlit keyboard would be nice...but has anyone noticed that the Air's keyboard is MUCH more durable than the MBPs? I haven't used the latest MBPs, but on my April '10 version (that I had before my current MBA) the keyboard was noticeably worn out in a few weeks...I'd even venture to say that it was more worn out than my current MBA keyboard (owned since Nov. 1). I really like how my keyboard looks almost new after 30 seconds with a magic eraser, and I'm now training myself to use my left thumb on the space to double it's life looking good (it and F are definitely the most worn out...).

... Worn out...? o.0

 

[josh2012]

July-August

My guess is the MBA refresh will come at the same time as the release of Lion in July-August time frame. The MBA will get SandyBridge CPU and the HD3000 GPU, Thunderbolt, SDXC port, and ship with Lion. It will also probably get a better battery life, maybe still rated at 7, but more inline with the new 13" MBP recording over 8 hours in some test (PC MAG). I hope for back lit keyboard to be brought back but doubt any other changes will be made.

 

[neteng101]

They sure better bring a Facetime HD camera too cause the current webcam is just plain crap.

 

[zinka]

My guess is the MBA refresh will come at the same time as the release of Lion in July-August time frame. The MBA will get SandyBridge CPU and the HD3000 GPU, Thunderbolt, SDXC port, and ship with Lion. It will also probably get a better battery life, maybe still rated at 7, but more inline with the new 13" MBP recording over 8 hours in some test (PC MAG). I hope for back lit keyboard to be brought back but doubt any other changes will be made.

It will have built-in 3G. I promise.

 

[Miss Terri]

I am sure they will add thunderbolt. Most likely Sandy Bridge.

How do you know this about Thunderbolt? What do those people say about a refresh?

MT