Has MBA cannibalized iPad Sales and Usage?

[Night Spring]

You're wrong.

The iPad is not a giant iPod Touch in practice. It is a totally different experience. The iPod seems kind of like a gimmicky cheap version of the iPad.

The 10" display is large enough that it starts t ofeel a little bit minority reportish. You can interact with it using all 10 fingers and keep it at a distance. The iPod is kinda dinky and you have to hold it up and poke at it.

It is a very different comparison than, for example, the larger screen version of the Nintendo DSi, which is pointless except for old people who can't see very well.

I don't think you are saying anything different from ReallyBigFeet. Yes, the iPad is a giant iPod touch, and yes, the screen size makes it a totally different experience. That's what I thought ReallyBigFeet was saying too. And I do totally agree with you about the iPod seeming like a dinky and cheap version of iPad. For instance, my current iPod touch came with 4.x, and the multitasking tray and folders seemed clunky, cramped and rather hard to use. I finally put iOS 4.2 GM on an iPad the other day, and it was like "Aaaaaah, that's how it's supposed to be!" So slick and polished and a pleasure to use!

 

[aberrero]

The fact that you can use both hands on the iPad DOES add more features to it and does create a different experience more than just saying that the screen is easier to read.

For example, the MBP 17 is literally nothing more than a bigger MBP 15. You can use them interchangeably, but if you want the bigger screen, get the 17.

The functionality on the iPad and iPod are not interchangeable at all.

As for netbooks, yes, basically, the MBA 11 does have similar (but much better) functionality to netbooks. They are going to be used for the same tasks, with the only difference being that the MBA is much much nicer.

The same relationship is not true for the iPod and iPad. They have the same internal hardware and a similar OS, but the devices are totally different. A palm pilot, which has totally different hardware and a totally different OS, has more in common with the iPod than the iPad does.

 

[Scottsdale]

Ignoring the iPad vs. iPod Touch debate/differences for a moment, as I want to compare the iPad to the iPhone 4.

The iPhone 4 does more than the iPad does for me. I like the FaceTime chat feature, having calling capabilities, having a high resolution display, and MOST IMPORTANTLY for me, it fits in my pocket.

The experiences are totally different, but for me the iPhone 4 is far superior to the iPad experience. It seems higher quality, better screen, better features, and it's the ultimate in portability.

I used my iPad a few times the first week. I have tried to upgrade it with apps, but I still find it pointless FOR ME. I don't see any advantage of the iPad except having a larger display for some apps. However, in my life the MacBook Air and iPhone 4 cover everything I want to do and it makes the iPad pointless.

I also have read a lot of posts in forums where people sold their iPad to buy a new MBA. It seems obvious to me, so I am surprised anyone else thinks that it would be odd or that Apple would not want to sell a $999 to $1799 MacBook Air over a $499 to $829 iPad. Of course more revenue is better and gaining traction in either market is great for Apple.

With the Mac app store coming, Macs will provide the same revenue market creations that the iOS products have. For some people the iPad works great, but many others would prefer the portability of an iPhone 4/iPod Touch over the capabilities of the iPad. In addition, the Mac provides a real computing experience over the iPad's extremely limited experience.

What is great is Apple appears to finally see that it doesn't have to abandon the Mac markets just to have iOS devices. With Apple's bank account, it can achieve greatness in all of the markets it competes in.

 

[ReallyBigFeet]

^ The success of the Mac App store remains to be seen. If its filled with useful 99 cent productivity apps, then sure...I'll be there.

But I'm betting that OSX apps cost quite a bit more than iPhone/iPad apps. Furthermore, I'm willing to be that MANY of the launch titles will be recycled versions of popular iPhone/iPad apps as well or crapware that's 2-3 years old (I'm looking at YOU Electronic Arts and your Sims franchise).

Lets hope I'm wrong and you are right.

 

[aberrero]

For some people the iPad works great, but many others would prefer the portability of an iPhone 4/iPod Touch over the capabilities of the iPad.

Nobody is arguing that the iPad will replace a smartphone. In fact, i am saying the exact opposite, that it is a completely different device from a smartphone and therefore shouldn't be referred to as a giant iphone/ipod touch.

If I had to choose one, obviously I would take an iPhone 4, but since I don't have to choose, I really enjoy my combination of android smartphone and iPad and macbook air and desktop (though saying it like that kind of makes it all sound a bit excessive ).

 

[aberrero]

^ The success of the Mac App store remains to be seen. If its filled with useful 99 cent productivity apps, then sure...I'll be there.

But I'm betting that OSX apps cost quite a bit more than iPhone/iPad apps. Furthermore, I'm willing to be that MANY of the launch titles will be recycled versions of popular iPhone/iPad apps as well or crapware that's 2-3 years old (I'm looking at YOU Electronic Arts and your Sims franchise).

Lets hope I'm wrong and you are right.

By far the thing I hate most about macs is the fact that every tiny utility costs $15 to $30. I really hope the mac app store just destroys those prices and brings them down to at least iPad levels.

I went to install MondoMouse, which replicates the out of hte box mouse behavior for moving windows in linux. It costs $15. I am using the trial for now, although it doesn't seem to work very well so I wouldn't buy it at any price, but if it did replicate the functionality correctly I can see myself paying a dollar or two for it. More than that just seems unreasonable these days. There is a free, open source, windows program that works just about perfectly called altdrag, but there is nothing of the sort for OSX.

The list goes on, there are tons of free utilities that are extremely expensive on macs. Actually, most of the ones that I want don't even work on SL (insomniaX and Shapeshifter in particular).

Of course, all these apps I mentioned violate 90% of the policies of the mac app store, so there is absolutely no chance of ever seeing them there.

 

[miata]

I don't think you are saying anything different from ReallyBigFeet. Yes, the iPad is a giant iPod touch, and yes, the screen size makes it a totally different experience. That's what I thought ReallyBigFeet was saying too. And I do totally agree with you about the iPod seeming like a dinky and cheap version of iPad. For instance, my current iPod touch came with 4.x, and the multitasking tray and folders seemed clunky, cramped and rather hard to use. I finally put iOS 4.2 GM on an iPad the other day, and it was like "Aaaaaah, that's how it's supposed to be!" So slick and polished and a pleasure to use!

I jokingly refer to my iPod Touch 4G as a "pocket iPad."

 

[rrl]

Apple, Apple, Apple...

Why not rule the world? No need to cannibalize anything. Just give us a 1376x774 pixel, 4x128 GB, multi-core iPad running OS X with an attachable BT keyboard/touchpad.

You're so close.

 

[MikhailT]

Some financial analysts are speculating that iPad sales will disappoint this quarter because people are buying the low-end MacBook Air instead. We'll find out in January.

Let me pull up the other ones.

Some financial analysts are speculating that iPad sales will continue to exceed all sales expectations this holiday, it is the number one requested item for people’s christmas gift.

Some financial analysts are speculating that Macbook sales will be disappointing this quarter because people are buying MBA instead.

Who cares, they all end up in Apple’s wallet that’s hoarding over $50B in cash already.

 

[Appleind]

Let me pull up the other ones.

Some financial analysts are speculating that iPad sales will continue to exceed all sales expectations this holiday, it is the number one requested item for people’s christmas gift.

Some financial analysts are speculating that Macbook sales will be disappointing this quarter because people are buying MBA instead.

Who cares, they all end up in Apple’s wallet that’s hoarding over $50B in cash already.

The rebirth of the once forgotten MacBook Air.

 

[Appleind]

By far the thing I hate most about macs is the fact that every tiny utility costs $15 to $30. I really hope the mac app store just destroys those prices and brings them down to at least iPad levels.

I went to install MondoMouse, which replicates the out of hte box mouse behavior for moving windows in linux. It costs $15. I am using the trial for now, although it doesn't seem to work very well so I wouldn't buy it at any price, but if it did replicate the functionality correctly I can see myself paying a dollar or two for it. More than that just seems unreasonable these days. There is a free, open source, windows program that works just about perfectly called altdrag, but there is nothing of the sort for OSX.

The list goes on, there are tons of free utilities that are extremely expensive on macs. Actually, most of the ones that I want don't even work on SL (insomniaX and Shapeshifter in particular).

Of course, all these apps I mentioned violate 90% of the policies of the mac app store, so there is absolutely no chance of ever seeing them there.

Steve did not say that the Mac App Store will be the only way to buy/try apps for mac. Do you foresee all the developers taking the Mac app store bait

 

[foiden]

Actually, he specifically said that it won't be the only way to get your software. Considering that Macs have the same developer freedom of releasing stuff on it, as any computer, I would agree that devs wont exactly flock to it like Appstore. Though it may be not a bad idea for smaller devs to do it, if only to get the advertisement and exposure they'd otherwise have to shell out a good deal more money for.

 

[Appleind]

Actually, he specifically said that it won't be the only way to get your software. Considering that Macs have the same developer freedom of releasing stuff on it, as any computer, I would agree that devs wont exactly flock to it like Appstore. Though it may be not a bad idea for smaller devs to do it, if only to get the advertisement and exposure they'd otherwise have to shell out a good deal more money for.

70% vs 100%

 

[Appleind]

Nobody is arguing that the iPad will replace a smartphone. In fact, i am saying the exact opposite, that it is a completely different device from a smartphone and therefore shouldn't be referred to as a giant iphone/ipod touch.

If I had to choose one, obviously I would take an iPhone 4, but since I don't have to choose, I really enjoy my combination of android smartphone and iPad and macbook air and desktop (though saying it like that kind of makes it all sound a bit excessive ).

Did you choose android due to the antennagate issue?

 

[foiden]

True, but we're also basing on the software released by small and relatively new devs. How much are they selling it for? What are their intended sales figures? What is the cost to self advertise the thing based on how they plan to sell it? It's all about start-up costs vs. risk. If your thing doesn't sell, you pretty much pay nothing. If it has problems selling, and you pay for your own advertisements....well you paid something.

 

[ReallyBigFeet]

The one thing I am looking forward to about the Mac App store is the "net effect" of being able to see a large library of software all under one roof, categorized by type of app. Today, for example, if you want to see and compare Project Management tools for the Mac, you pretty much need to go into Google and search for those terms. Its not that easy to just "browse the virtual aisles" of apps that are out there, and some of them are so obscure that even if you find what you think you want, there's no review around to give you an idea of whether or not its worth the price. Further, many vendors do NOT offer trial versions of their software so you can get a feel for them.

I think the App Store for the iPhone/iPad encourages browsing, letting you discover software that you never even knew existed. It encourages impulse buying for this very reason....sometimes you find something you never even knew you wanted if it had not been on the Top 10 list of the App Store that week. Further, so many of the apps offer freeware/lite versions so you can sample them first.

I think this "curated" approach has benefited the consumer in more ways than not and I'm hoping it has a similar effect for OSX apps as well.

But the cynic in me still expects 18 pages of old EA titles at full price each. Grrrrrrrrrr.

 

[Night Spring]

Apple, Apple, Apple...

Why not rule the world? No need to cannibalize anything. Just give us a 1376x774 pixel, 4x128 GB, multi-core iPad running OS X with an attachable BT keyboard/touchpad.

You're so close.

Base unit for that will cost $2999, going up to $4599 for the ultimate version. The attachable keyboard/touchpad needed to run OS X programs would be clumsy to carry and use, and there isn't enough iOS productivity apps yet to justify that kind of hardware cost. It will be a niche product that might be a technological marvel but with very limited market saturation. Sort of like what happened with the original Air, but worse. I'm sure that Apple would get there eventually, but they are getting there by taking small baby steps. I think Jobs learned the pitfalls of being too far ahead of the times through his experiences with his initial stunt at Apple followed by Next. The wait might be frustrating, but it's going to be well worth it in the end.

 

[KPOM]

Who cares, they all end up in Apple’s wallet that’s hoarding over $50B in cash already.

I think the issue that analysts have is that the margins are believed to be higher on the iPad than the MacBook Air.

 

[Appleind]

The one thing I am looking forward to about the Mac App store is the "net effect" of being able to see a large library of software all under one roof, categorized by type of app. Today, for example, if you want to see and compare Project Management tools for the Mac, you pretty much need to go into Google and search for those terms. Its not that easy to just "browse the virtual aisles" of apps that are out there, and some of them are so obscure that even if you find what you think you want, there's no review around to give you an idea of whether or not its worth the price. Further, many vendors do NOT offer trial versions of their software so you can get a feel for them.

I think the App Store for the iPhone/iPad encourages browsing, letting you discover software that you never even knew existed. It encourages impulse buying for this very reason....sometimes you find something you never even knew you wanted if it had not been on the Top 10 list of the App Store that week. Further, so many of the apps offer freeware/lite versions so you can sample them first.

I think this "curated" approach has benefited the consumer in more ways than not and I'm hoping it has a similar effect for OSX apps as well.

But the cynic in me still expects 18 pages of old EA titles at full price each. Grrrrrrrrrr.

Will this make the Mac Bundles(read discounted) disappear

 

[MikhailT]

I think the issue that analysts have is that the margins are believed to be higher on the iPad than the MacBook Air.

Apple warned analysts about that in the last conference call. The margins are higher on MBA than the rest of the Mac laptops too, close to 25-30% as opposed to 20%.

http://www.macworld.co.uk/digitallifestyle/news/index.cfm?newsid=3245509&olo=rss

 

[rrl]

Base unit for that will cost $2999, going up to $4599 for the ultimate version. The attachable keyboard/touchpad needed to run OS X programs would be clumsy to carry and use, and there isn't enough iOS productivity apps yet to justify that kind of hardware cost. It will be a niche product that might be a technological marvel but with very limited market saturation. Sort of like what happened with the original Air, but worse. I'm sure that Apple would get there eventually, but they are getting there by taking small baby steps. I think Jobs learned the pitfalls of being too far ahead of the times through his experiences with his initial stunt at Apple followed by Next. The wait might be frustrating, but it's going to be well worth it in the end.

If they were to take an 11" MBA and swap the screen and keyboard/touchpad locations they would be half way there. A touch screen, some nifty hinge technology and maybe heat dissipation would be the largest remaining hurdles. An iPad + an 11" ultimate costs $1900. I think $1650 would be a fare price for the device I'm speaking of.

If Always Innovating (just down the road from Apple) can charge $500 for their hybrid abomination, Apple should be able to do it for under $2000.

 

[aberrero]

Actually, he specifically said that it won't be the only way to get your software. Considering that Macs have the same developer freedom of releasing stuff on it, as any computer, I would agree that devs wont exactly flock to it like Appstore. Though it may be not a bad idea for smaller devs to do it, if only to get the advertisement and exposure they'd otherwise have to shell out a good deal more money for.

I think it makes a lot more sense for small developers than doing something like macheist.

 

[aberrero]

Did you choose android due to the antennagate issue?

No, I bought it because of the it-deosn't-have-a-keyboardgate and its-on-at&tgate issue the iPhone 4 has.

No regrets whatsoever. I think my Epic is quite a bit better than the iPhone. Big AMOLED screen, 4G, great keyboard, 24 hour battery life.

 

[aberrero]

I think the issue that analysts have is that the margins are believed to be higher on the iPad than the MacBook Air.

The margins on the iPad are probably very thin for the $499 model and criminal for everything else. I would say that only an idiot would spend $830 on an iPad, but I think there are a lot of people here who would find that offensive...

 

[KPOM]

The margins on the iPad are probably very thin for the $499 model and criminal for everything else. I would say that only an idiot would spend $830 on an iPad, but I think there are a lot of people here who would find that offensive...

Similarly, the margin on the $999 MacBook Air is fairly tight (by Apple standards, at least), but gets progressively higher and is the highest on the $1,799 model. It seems the "ultimate" models are actually selling pretty well, but I also suspect that so is the $999 model.