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How long before a million sold?

stainlessliquid said:
Judging by the small lines at just a few apple stores I would say it will take a long time to get to 1 million. This is nothing like a console launch where there are giant lines at every video game store in every city in every state, even consoles dont sell 1million right away. I dont think it will be very hard for people to get an iphone tomorrow or the next day, since its doubtful they will run out of stock unless apple severely limited supply.

Plus in cities like mine nobody cares. None of my friends had even heard of the iphone when I asked them about it, and they could care less when I tried to show them. Even at college I have yet to hear a single person talking about it. It seems like Im the only one that knows it exists.
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Where do you live, the middle of the Antarctic with no internet connection whatsoever (except for, apparently, right now)?

carfac said:
Really, yes. I think a lot of people are gonna get it because of the hype, just to check it out. I think a lot of those people may figure oh well after a couple days... may not give the keyboard a chance, may find their IT dept says no, get the $600 buyers remorse blues, etc.

Two days ago, I would have said even higher. But kudos to ATT for upping the EDGE bandwidth. As long as that STAYS up, sure, 20%. If that EDGE enhancement fails, or goes back down, I would say higher.
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You're assuming there's gonna be this big group of people that go out and impulse buy the iPhone with no need for it whatsoever, sign a service contract with AT&T, and then for some reason decide to return it and either 1) spend more money to cancel the new contract or 2) get another phone that has potentially less features and might not use all the features of the AT&T iPhone plan. I really don't see that happening on a widespread basis, and definitely not 20% of all iPhone sales.
 
carfac said:
I doubt there are 1 million completely MADE as of today... I doubt even 1/2 million as of today. Certainly no more than 500K.
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The initial rumors before launch were 3 million. Making only 500k for launch would be insane. I have a feeling that they didn't ship all stock to stores on launch day to prevent activation issues. ATT would implode if they tried to activate 500k phones in one day. It seems within reason to assume that there should be a steady flow over the next few weeks.
 
gauchogolfer said:
I saw listings for $1750 pretty commonly on eBay, with one guy asking $2500. I wonder if they seriously expect to get that kind of price. Idiots.
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Many did sell for that price. Do a completed item search, then sort by highest price. I'm the idiot for not doing it myself.
 
How long do I think? Maybe a month, or two weeks. Theres the first group of people to camped out/stood in line and got all the first phones. The second wave will be the people who scrounge up the money/waited for the lines to die/debate about buying, then go out and purchase them within the next few days. Then, theres going to be the normal people who go out and buy the phones because they need/decide on the iPhone.

I personally am dying to get one; but since I'm still young, don't work enough hours, and would rather not throw my life's savings into spending 70 bucks on a 2-year contract, I guess I have to wait. :( :( :( :(
 
diamond.g said:
Well if every Mac user buys one, then not too long at all.

Otherwise it depends. The PS3 didn't hit 1 million till a few months later.

How many iPods do (does??) Apple sell a month? Safe guess may be about a quarter of that number.

I wonder if it will end up like the Wii (ie impossible to find for almost a year).
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Well, Apple sells over 3 million iPods a month but that includes shuffles and nanos that don't have the high price tag of the iPhone. Plus, they don't require a contract and aren't tied to a carrier. Also, there are a million resellers of iPods where as iPhones are only at Apple/ATT stores. Still, Once this thing launches in Canada/Europe/Japan it will really take off. US sales only at the moment.
 
Obviously, it depends on how many units have been manufactured.

The AT&T stores have run out, and now the Apple Stores are starting to run out of them, especially in the large markets (like California) so I am guessing that the initial block of iPhones has mostly been sold.

And that is after only 2.5 days of sales. I think they could sell a million pretty quickly (even in a week and a half), but that depends on how many they can make.
 
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