My guess it would be until 2022 or so. The Mac Pros came out in 2013 and general availability was 2014. So add approximately 7 years and you get 2021-2022.
That is not how Apple's Vintage and Obsolete policy works. It happens to appear to work something like that when Apple superseded almost all Mac models on about a 8-14 months cadence, but that is not what the policy says.
"... or Mac products may obtain service and parts from Apple or Apple service providers for 5 years after the product is no longer sold—or longer, where required by law. ..."
Learn about your options for getting service and parts for Apple devices that are past their warranty period.
support.apple.com
The countdown clock is started when Apple stops selling it. Not it becomes generally available. At end of sales lifetime (or very often end of manufacturing which lines up with end of sales) is when Apple starts backing away.
For the Mac Pro 2013 Apple was shooting themselves in the foot by leaving the product comatose for so long. The Vintage countdown didn't effectively start until November 2019. Which means there is at least another five years ( 2024 ). There is much hand waving that this is "only hardware". Apple doesn't do macOS updates for things that are on the Obsolete list. They often don't do them for some things on the Vintage list. People trying flap their arms trying to find corner cases of x and y that got an update while on vintage ... blah blah blah. The Obsolete policy is meausered in years. The 'end sales date' is effectively measured in months. ( so things get tossed onto the Vintage list at various times of the year. While the macOS roll out date is pretty much end of Sept - early October. One moves around while the other doesn't which gets some slop. in the last cut off iteration if too close to a macOS roll out date. ).
macOS is licensed coupled to the hardware. Apple will have some problems in court hand waving about how there are uber super coupled when it has to do with the license but complete decoupled when it comes to support. A contract when connivence for them and not a contract when need to step up to their obligations.
Is transition to ARM may turn out to shorten it. Probably not dramatically. If Apple is consistent they won't start the "countdown" clock on macOS x86_64 until the stop sales of all x86_64 systems. That may run on a shorter count down ( 3 years instead of 5. ) , but that should be enough time for the MP 2013 to "run out the clock". ( 2022 + 3 (or 5) is 2025-2027 )
This may consist of just major security fixes toward the end but pretty good chance will get something to keep the systems operational until Apple plugs the plug on time expectation they set.
Support for 8-9 years seems adequate for a CPU introduced in 2013.
If Apple has updated back in 2017 then 2022 would have been the end. However, they were still hitting the "snooze' bar in April 2017.
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Big Sur is the last release for the Mac Pro 6,1. Apple is cutting off by year so this year the 2012 Macs got cutoff next year the 2013 Macs are on the chopping block.
Not really. The only 2012 Macs really left was the MBP 2012 13" non retina which was on extended life support. The other 2012 stuff has been on Vintage/Obsolete. Dropping off now isn't really new or cutting off a year. There were a few "close so throw a lifeline " extensions last year so the culling is a bit bigger this year.
