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The answer really depends on what you intend to use your computer for, over time.

You list yours as being an "M4 Mac mini, macOS Tahoe, 256GB SSD, 16GB RAM".

If it's your main and only computer, eventually you will probably feel the squeeze of it having a small SSD and not a lot of RAM. (I would've gone for 24 or 32 GB and a 1 TB SSD.) If you keep using it after Apple stops the OS and security updates for it, you will eventually find that app software updates will no longer support the last supported OS you're running. At that point you'll have to either live with it, or hope there's something like OCLP years from now to let you run an unsupported OS on an Apple Silicon Mac, or else get rid of it and upgrade to a more recent computer.

In my case, I have a 2012 Mac mini with 16 GB, a 1 TB hard drive and I added a 240 GB SSD to it and converted the HDD to my Time Machine volume. It still runs macOS Mojave 10.14.6. It has a very specific function - it's a storage/media server (and Blu-ray ripper) in my living room. I tried using it to play media (via Kodi) but found that my Blu-ray player was a better media player so I just let the Mac mini do storage and media serving (via Plex). Because of its specific function I have no need to update it (yet). A more general-purpose machine will run into the limitations I mentioned above.

There's no reason to think that your M4 Mac mini can't last for years and years, until you run into those limitations.
 
I have heard of old MacBooks that still run great after 10+ years and was wondering if I should expect that from my Mac Mini?
Until Apple quits supporting it, which will probably be 6 years? Possibly longer?

I'd go in assuming m4 could lose support in 2031

I'm not clear on if Linux will really be available for Apple CPUs or not, so that you could keep using the hardware.
 
The hardware will last longer than the software. Chances are good that the first wall you will hit is that Apple builds an OS that has higher requirements than the computer is able to achieve. Usually much later comes 3rd Party software that requires a newer OS - even if the newer app does essentially the same thing as the old.

Security patches are always a concern with 'older' products (as on new - be wise in what you are doing), but if the hardware is fine and the software you have runs happily on it and does what you need it to do, an upgrade for upgrade's sake may only benefit Apple and the app developers.

Though my 'daily' use machine is currently a M2 Mini, I still have a 2017 MacBook Air (the last year with all the ports - a feature I'm still thankful for and use surprisingly often when travelling) bought new, and now running Monterey. I use it for work and casual travel / lap on the balcony. It still runs all the software I used on it new - some of which still gets updates - and many of the same apps are on the M2. I have no reason to believe it will kack on me anytime soon, despite no longer being supported by Apple.
 
I have heard of old MacBooks that still run great after 10+ years and was wondering if I should expect that from my Mac Mini?
15-17 years or so. Since there is nothing to pillow or break (like a battery or moving parts).

Even if there would be some rare unfortunate accident (like dead SSD), you will easily be able to run macOS off external USB-C SSD, which will be above the same speed as internal, or at least it is gonna be usable.

Software-wise, while support of current macOS will probably end somewhere in 2032, the computer will be usable well beyond the macOS “expiration date”, it is better to read it as “best before”. Even when Safari stops opening webpages (it will happen 3 years after macOS support stops), there will be plenty of 3rd party browsers to be able to open webpages.

Security-wise, I think for actual work machines this issue is overrated, no one is going to hack your old machine unless you do something that might get someone’s interest. Sure I wouldn’t recommend open banking apps on this old computer, but even if you do it is not unsafe since most banks have had 2fa for a long time already
 
10 years is a big ask, and keep in mind that after about 7 years apple considers it vintage, i.e., no support and it will most likely not be able to run current version of macos, so there's a security perspective to consider.

Depending on how you're using your computer will largely dictate how long it will be viable. Surfing, facebook, office apps, it will last a long time.
The other problem with these AS Macs is that they don't fully support Linux whereas the Intel Macs did. You could repurpose a retired Mac and move it to Linux. I have a 2012 Mini that is happily and easily running the latest version of Ubuntu. I plan to do the same with my 2018 Mini.

This is why I only buy the cheapest entry level Macs like the Mini. You cry less when it's no longer supported.
 
The other problem with these AS Macs is that they don't fully support Linux whereas the Intel Macs did. You could repurpose a retired Mac and move it to Linux. I have a 2012 Mini that is happily and easily running the latest version of Ubuntu. I plan to do the same with my 2018 Mini.

This is why I only buy the cheapest entry level Macs like the Mini. You cry less when it's no longer supported.
Yeah, with how short they're supported, it does make me go HMM about going too nuts getting high end.

It's tempting though.

Hell, maybe a 24GB Macbook Air would actually be okay for use as a basic PC for me
 
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With the M4, you bought the longest-lasting hardware. Desktop vs more fragile notebook, base 16 ram which everybody applaud, user-upgradable SSD, iMac sleek but a PITA to open up if necessary.

At some point Apple will say, there is no further software update for model x,y, and that will be the beginning of the end.

Before this M4, I was running a 4G, 2011 Air, then I had this 18-tabs browser job and watched the swap file engage and realized how things drag, couldn't stand it. Ordered and fire up the M4 and things load instantly, love new cars. I ran Linux for a few months on the 2011, thinking it might help and it did but not enough.
 
That mostly depends on the amount of RAM you got. In my experience, you won't be getting any OS updates after 5-8 years, and then it will take another 2 years until recent software is no more released for your OS. Then problems start to accumulate with the years (e.g. no online banking possible, because there's no more supported browser). You usually can circumvent this and install a newer OS with a patcher, but imho, after around 12 years, the machine becomes more or less unuseable under OSX, unless you're only doing very light stuff locally like office-apps.

Could be that with no more posibillity to upgrade RAM, Macs won't last that long any more. OTOH, my GFs Macbook Air from 2014 still runs fine with a meagre 4GB, but she only does light web-surfing and video-streaming with it.

Either way, after 12 years you might want to consider putting linux on it or getting a new one.
 
Typically OS support stops 5-7 years AFTER they stop selling the machine, and the old OS can get 2 years of extended support for critical defects. So 7-9 years of OS support AFTER the machine stops being sold.

What's special this time is that Apple continues to sell M1 Airs via Walmart. It's not at all clear if that means our 7-9 year countdown has even started or not, and it's not at all clear if that M1 support will extend to M1 Pro, Max, and Ultra, or whether it implies anything about the length of support for M2, M3 and M4.

We're in uncharted territory.
 
I have heard of old MacBooks that still run great after 10+ years and was wondering if I should expect that from my Mac Mini?

This reply was posted from my mid-2010 Mac mini. I upgraded the RAM to 16GB and replaced the HDD with a 120GB SSD around 2012. Still using it as my main computer.

If you don't need the portability of a laptop, IMHO buying a Mac mini is the smartest move. There's no display, no keyboard, no trackpad and no battery. That's four major sources of problems that you completely avoid.

It also gives you more flexibility for your choice of display. I'm currently using an ultra-wide, 2560x1080 monitor with my Mac mini. Apple doesn't sell any ultra-wide iMac or MacBook.
 
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You list yours as being an "M4 Mac mini, macOS Tahoe, 256GB SSD, 16GB RAM".

If it's your main and only computer, eventually you will probably feel the squeeze of it having a small SSD and not a lot of RAM. (I would've gone for 24 or 32 GB and a 1 TB SSD).

While I agree on the 16GB of RAM potentially not being enough depending on his needs, another way to look at this is the cost of RAM upgrades. Since it's built-in, you have no choice but to pay Apple's prices.

I'm in Canada so I'm going to use Canadian prices here:
The base model M4 with 16GB of RAM costs 800$CAD.
Upgrading the RAM to 24GB, which is only a 8GB upgrade, adds 300$CAD, a 37.5% price increase.
Upgrading the RAM to 32GB, which is only a 16GB upgrade, adds 600$CAD, a 75% price increase.
Upgrading the SSD to 1TB would add 600$CAD, another 75% price increase.

An M4 Mac mini with 24GB RAM and a 1TB SSD totals 1700$CAD, more than double the cost of the base model.

If you have limited funds, IMHO the smart way would be to get the base model and put the upgrade money aside for your next Mac mini upgrade, which will happen sooner with that money put aside. And there's a tiny chance the next Mac mini could have more than 16GB RAM. At the very least, you would get a newer, faster computer sooner.

For storage, 256GB should be enough for macOS and your applications. Even the base Mac mini M4 has three Thunderbolt 4 ports which allows you to add external storage which should be fast enough for most cases.
 
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M4 should be able to last 10 years easily.
I've the 2012 Mac Mini and it's kinda slow today, using it just to watch movies from Apple TV.

I've the M1 Mac Mini 2020 and have made thousands of YT videos with it. Mine is M1 and I see it lasting 10 years, so M4 can definitely last at least 10 years.
 
I have heard of old MacBooks that still run great after 10+ years and was wondering if I should expect that from my Mac Mini?
I don't know about your M4 mini, but my 2012 quad-core i7 mini is still up and running as a dedicated Plex server. I wouldn't use it as my daily driver, though. So, I suppose it depends on what you need it to do.
 
Another consideration when thinking of how long a Mini might last - when dealing exclusively with Apple, your Mini will likely lose 80% of its trade-in value at the end of its second year. Plummets further after that. While it's likely your Mini does exactly what you need it to do with no degradation of ability, its 'value' has plummeted as a trade-in.
With that in mind, use it as long as you can - truly getting your money's worth - and when you feel you absolutely must get a new computer, forget it as a trade-in and use it for other purposes around the home. Music or video storage & player, server, etc.
 
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Ouch, and when you break $20 keyboard (it is mechanical device, they break routinely), you throw out also $500+ device?
Umm, no. A MacBook is already essentially a Mini. Just consider without a screen - and a MacBook not rocking a $20 mechanical keyboard. If you want to pay $20 for an additional mechanical keyboard (and you get what you pay for) , then sure, add that.
 
my daily driver is 2015 macbook. runs as fast as it was new but it no longer receives updates. In 10 years maybe linux runs fully on M4 chips so you can always upgrade to linux if mac pulls support

Depends on what you use it for.

I was daily driving 2006 Mac Pro 1,1, running it 24 hours a day, seven days a week all year round, for the last 18 years until a few weeks ago, a bad storm and a couple power outages, and it stopped working.

what did you use it for until 2025?
 
Umm, no. A MacBook is already essentially a Mini. Just consider without a screen - and a MacBook not rocking a $20 mechanical keyboard. If you want to pay $20 for an additional mechanical keyboard (and you get what you pay for) , then sure, add that.
Yeah, just like my Color Computer that I still have (but boxed up)! :)
Tandy-Color-.jpg
 
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