How long will it take for Apple to reach a market cap of $10T?

[KaliYoni]

You could argue that FIRE folks should just go to cash at the start of the year and sit 2022 out.

Maybe. But the FIRE strategy is highly dependent on compounding high returns from early in a portfolio's life. If the next, say, five years are negative for most stocks and inflation rates are higher than the returns on fixed income and cash, living off one's investments 10-15 years after the portfolio's inception is going to look a lot different than many are counting on.

Another interesting thing to watch will be how FIRE gurus handle the mathematical fact that when portfolios lose ground, they must make up more ground, in percentage terms, to just get back to even.

 

[pshufd]

Maybe. But the FIRE strategy is highly dependent on compounding high returns from early in a portfolio's life. If the next, say, five years are negative for most stocks and inflation rates are higher than the returns on fixed income and cash, living off one's investments 10-15 years after the portfolio's inception is going to look a lot different than many are counting on.

Another interesting thing to watch will be how FIRE gurus handle the mathematical fact that when portfolios lose ground, they must make up more ground, in percentage terms, to just get back to even.

The traditional approach was 60% stocks, 40% bonds; but that gets boring when you have a 12-year bull market. There were a lot of articles last fall about why the 60/40 model doesn't work anymore. I was pretty surprised when TLT rose 65% from late 2018 to early 2020. Bonds can really move! But you have to get the timing right.

I didn't know what the methodology of FIRE was. I just focused on the RE part of it.

 

[pshufd]

Powell gave some soothing words to the markets yesterday. I guess that he backed off of the hawkishness somewhat as the dollar dropped to a two-month low.

One of the guys that I follow was interviewed about his outlook:

I wrote this yesterday and I did buy China. KBA (china ETF), YINN (leveraged long China).

Start nibbling in defensive stuff. And buy China.

China was up 2.79% last night and YINN is up 4.5% pre-market. KBA doesn't trade pre-market but I'd guess that it's up. One of my trading boards recommended a bunch of large-cap Chinese stocks and YINN yesterday evening.

 

[pshufd]

Some of my high-yield stocks. These have yields of 8-12 percent.

 

[KaliYoni]

Well, here we are about 2 years after this thread was started. AAPL's market cap is still around $2 trillion.

----------

You could argue that FIRE folks should just go to cash at the start of the year and sit 2022 out.

Today, that was very prescient. The real trick, though, is deciding when to reenter!

 

[ghanwani]

Well, here we are about 2 years after this thread was started. AAPL's market cap is still around $2 trillion.

----------

Today, that was very prescient. The real trick, though, is deciding when to reenter!

That one is easy. Re-enter when the fed says they will do whatever it takes to support economic growth.

 

[pshufd]

Let's see where we are at:

 

[pshufd]

Well, here we are about 2 years after this thread was started. AAPL's market cap is still around $2 trillion.

----------

Today, that was very prescient. The real trick, though, is deciding when to reenter!

I had a look at the projections of two Global Macro companies that called the downturn this year and they have us in deflation mode until at least through 2023 Q1.

You could have just shorted too. I covered shorts Thursday morning, then went back short on Thursday afternoon, covered Friday morning, went long, made a nice chunk of change on the long side and then flipped short near the close on Friday. Apple's potential downside is around $70 in a market collapse.

 

[pshufd]

That one is easy. Re-enter when the fed says they will do whatever it takes to support economic growth.

This is correct. When they start talking about lowering rates, buy with both hands.