I am getting strong "iPad 3" vibes from these first m1 macs.

[Lammers]

People on these forums consistently have overly optimistic forecasts for what Apple will do in the future because they infuse those forecasts with wishful thinking. The current MacBook Air design is only two years old. There is no reason to expect Apple to change it any time soon. I'd guess not until 2022 at the earliest.

Apple still has to cycle through AS-based releases for the entirety of the rest of the Mac line-up (a process they have said will take about two years), and I would expect them to do that and complete that before any changes come to the MBA. The new M1-based MBA is, IMHO, going to be the only MBA for the foreseeable future.

 

[Falhófnir]

People on these forums consistently have overly optimistic forecasts for what Apple will do in the future because they infuse those forecasts with wishful thinking. The current MacBook Air design is only two years old. There is no reason to expect Apple to change it any time soon. I'd guess not until 2022 at the earliest.

Apple still has to cycle through AS-based releases for the entirety of the rest of the Mac line-up (a process they have said will take about two years), and I would expect them to do that and complete that before any changes come to the MBA. The new M1-based MBA is, IMHO, going to be the only MBA for the foreseeable future.

I can’t see anything to suggest the M series of chips are going to have the sort of 2x or more generation over generation improvements earlier A series chips saw. Apple are going at a good pace for the current state of the industry but those sort of yearly advancements are unrealistic. The M series shares its basic core designs with the A series and for a few years now we’ve been seeing (decent) linear rather than exponential growth. The only exception might be in multi core if they add cores at any point, but that’s going to be a rare and limited occurrence.

 

[NotTooLate]

So after hundreds of HW releases , ppl still go back to 2012 (almost a decade now) and bring up the iPad3 situation....
sigh , like its some kind of a pattern Apple are using , note , 1 event in a decade does not consist of a pattern.
I have a hard time imagining a scenario where the Air is "obsolete" (hate that word in tech) in a year or 2 , will there be better things coming up and Apple will try to sell it to you as the best thing since sliced bread ? count on it , but will it make your new M1 Air a bad/slow/bad device , no way , I am rocking years old iPhone and it works like a champ , you can stop vibrating , M1 will be a great CPU in 1 year time and also in 3 years time.

TLDR - you can stop vibrating , its fine.

 

[Tankmaze]

You are right, but this "ipad 3 situation" actually similar to the mid 2020 macbook air that got replace by this M1 macbook air.

So your point is not entirely true because in this case, the late 2020 macbook air becomes the "ipad 4" in your comparison

But joking aside, the next iteration for M1 unless Apple add more cores to the architecture, you will not see large gain from the performance. Because the next update for the mac probably the redesign iMac & 14" MBP, so it would be for the looks with probably 10-15% performance gain.

 

[hefeglass]

This is technology, you can just wait around forever so you dont get "burned",,or just get what you want and enjoy it, dont worry about what the next thing is. I bought a 2020 macbook air 2 months ago..pretty frustrating, I agree.
This is the way going forward with more things being technology based. I bought a 2020 tesla model 3 performance. Less than a year later now they are offering the same car with faster acceleration, longer range, better cold weather efficiency, double pane windows, different wheels, black trim, and a bunch of other updates. (and the 2020 I got was already updated quite a bit from the 2018-2019 models) Tesla iterates so quickly..probably faster than most pc manufacturers. You just jump in when you;re ready and enjoy what you bought .

 

[citivolus]

I too was an iPad 3 owner and also felt burned as if it was treated like a red-headed stepchild. However, this time I bought my M1 with the full expectation that an improved model will likely be released in less than a year and I plan to sell mine for a loss of $100-$150 and upgrade as needed. That cost is more than worth it to me for the tremendous value the M1 is providing me.

 

[dolbinau]

My personal thoughts on why I don't think this is an iPad 3 vs iPad 4 situation, Apple Watch S0, or first Intel Mac Situation etc.

* The M1 processor is based on years of iteration and R&D already - are we really going to expect Apple to make a significant step change in 1 year? (e.g. 32-bit to 64-bit Intel architecture change).
* Apple need to focus now on iMac, proper "Pro" MBPs and Mac Pro - these may be a significant step change from their entry-level M1 releases but I assume everyone realises right now if you're buying an entry-level machine it of course is going to be entry-level and pail in comparison to the future
* On the point above, Apple need to clearly differentiate entry-level from proper "Pro" machines - so I don't think we are suddenly going to see massive step changes in the entry-level machines that could cannibalise sales of their pro models
* The only potential thing I can see happening in the near future (i.e. next year) beyond a typical evolutionary performance upgrade is a design change to the MBP or MBA e.g. smaller bezels. But I don't know if that is something to jump up and down about.

Could be wrong, but if you bought an entry-level machine and aren't afraid for it to be eclipsed by non-entry level Macs next year I don't think you will be in a situation where you regret not waiting. If you genuinely want 'Pro' performance and are buying an entry-level machine because of the significant gains from Intel>M1 you may be disappointed for not waiting.

 

[1221320]

I half-agree with the OP, I think. It reminds me of the PPC to Intel transition with the iMac - I seem to recall (I may be wrong) that the G5 iMac was the white polycarbonate thing, and there was an Intel revision that used the same case. Then very soon after they switched to the aluminium and black case.

With the MBA and MBP M1, I would be surprised if a form-factor revision wasn't coming next year - I know Mac users seem fine with the size of the bezels, etc, but as a Windows laptop user for a couple of years and as someone who is now used to edge-to-edge displays, I think Apple does need to update the case a little. Plus that would have the advantage of being able to do things like fit a 14" display in a 13" chassis. My current laptop is a ThinkPad X1 Carbon, and it is smaller and lighter than a MBA but has a 14" display.

I also seem to recall (again, could be wrong!), that Apple seemed to move pretty quick with the A-series chips in their phones and iPads. If we got a revision in 2021 with a new design, I'd bet it would have an M2 chip in them. Whether it's a big leap in tech, who knows. But the point with the M1 MBA and MBP is more proof of concept - they've put out two machines that people know and love, which are basically the same as they have always been, yet they have vastly improved performance, like Apple promised.

Which is great! And they are great machines. The 2021 models will be even better, but then if you keep waiting for the next great thing you'll be waiting forever.

 

[dboris]

I agree with the OP but macbook 14" will be more expenssive , even if it may come up in a few months.
I wouldn't get the pro 13" considering the situation, while I really wanted a pro 13...
But M1 pro ain't really pro ; same performance.

 

[sracer]

In OP’s analogy, the iPad 3 is actually the 2020 intel MacBook airs. I am feeling pretty dumb now, having bought that on day one after 6 years with a previous MBA, only to have this M1 arrive and totally destroy it in every way (except bootcamp).

I underestimated the psychological damaged caused by the iPad 3. It was released over 8.5 years ago and it seems like many of those who bought it are still being affected by it.

Contrary to the revisionism going on, the iPad 3 was NOT the great update above and beyond the iPad 2 at the time. Given the state of iOS apps at that time and what the iPad was being used for, there was very little practical reason to upgrade from the iPad 2.

The desire to upgrade was driven more by the intangibles. I think that is why there is some emotional scarring for some.

I pre-ordered the iPad 1 on day-1 that pre-orders were open. I also pre-ordered the official keyboard dock. I saw value in upgrading to the iPad 2... but when the 3 was released, I sensed that the iPad releases were going to follow Star Trek theatrical films... only every other one (starting with 2) would be good. ?

I agree with your observation that the 2020 Intel-based MBAs are more analogous to the iPad 3.

 

[acidfast7_redux]

I'm cool with that.

I don't base my purchases on what's available on the market, I base it on need/requirement.

A new faster machine getting released later is thusly irrelevant to me.

 

[acidfast7_redux]

I underestimated the psychological damaged caused by the iPad 3. It was released over 8.5 years ago and it seems like many of those who bought it are still being affected by it.

crazy. do people really have so little going on in their life, that they even remember that?

 

[Mikael H]

It is pretty reasonable to think that there will be many more shoes to drop in the near future.

So speaking as a iPad 3 owner who felt a little burned by my lust for the latest thing (and ended up selling off a several month old 3 at a loss, to jump to a 4), perhaps waiting a few months to at least begin hearing the rumors of what comes next, will be a prudent decision.

New shoes will keep on dropping, always. I completely disagree with your analysis, though.

The revolutionary performance improvements of moving to a new architecture have happened now with the M1. We will see incremental improvements from the addition of cores and from the ongoing cadence we've seen with Apple chips since many years, but I wouldn't let that prevent me from purchasing a computer I need just like the knowledge that next September will bring newer iPhones doesn't stop me from buying a new iPhone of the current generation now and then (but at the beginning of a cycle if at all possible).
Especially now that Apple is moving back towards a proprietary computer model, we can leave the PC-like thinking behind and go back to the question "how much do I need to pay for a solution that can do what I need it to do?"
Because of the Internet our computers have a limited effective lifetime based on how long they will receive software updates, but with Apple this is always an open question until after the fact. You can usually count on a useful lifetime of 5-7 years unless your needs outgrow the machine.

 

[Moakesy]

Going slightly against the tide here, but I think the M1 is Apple's safe ground to get going here. Apple's R&D team over delivered and so they could play safe and release something that blew everyone away whilst still well within limits.

I think the next iteration will be significant step up again, as they consolidate their learnings and start to flex. Maybe not quite the quantum leap the M1 is, but certainly enough of a above the M1 justify people putting more dollar into the the latest model.

However, that all said, if I needed a new machine, I would still buy a M1 MBA now. Residuals will be high, so I can get the benefit of a fantastic bit of kit for $999 and then make a decision to sell and upgrade in 3, 6 or 12 months time.

Heck, I don't even need a new laptop, but this M1 MBA is tempting enough to make me consider getting one.

 

[vanilla_prison]

I bought an iPad 3 upon release way back in the day. 18 year old me couldn't resist the shiny new screen resolution. Know when I got rid of that iPad? 8 days ago after receiving a new 8th gen iPad. Did my old 3 slow down after a few years? Sure. Was it still usable? Definitely. Important part of my daily needs until the time to replace it came. So, no, I'm not worried about my M1 Air, coming in a couple of days, becoming unwanted in a couple of months.

Technology evolves RAPIDLY. You can either obsess and convince yourself that anything less than the current top of the line is trash, OR you can enjoy your life with your device and simply upgrade a couple years down the road when you feel you're ready or it's necessary.

 

[Strangedream]

And? Your shiny new M1 is gonna be relatively "obsolete" in 1 year no matter what. So rather than comparing it to what might come out in the future just get it if you want it and appreciate it even after something better comes out. It might not be the fastest next year but it'll still run just as well as it did on day 1 if you take good care of it.

When the 16-inch M1(X) comes out I won't hold back on my purchase because the M2(X) will be better.

 

[Veeper]

Going slightly against the tide here, but I think the M1 is Apple's safe ground to get going here. Apple's R&D team over delivered and so they could play safe and release something that blew everyone away whilst still well within limits.

I think the next iteration will be significant step up again, as they consolidate their learnings and start to flex. Maybe not quite the quantum leap the M1 is, but certainly enough of a above the M1 justify people putting more dollar into the the latest model.

This is a great take.

 

[Mayo86]

If I had to read between the lines of the OP's post, I would say their analogy is pretty solid but perhaps for a different purpose.

While we are getting the bells and whistles of M1, we are not getting a new hardware design that is most likely to be inevitable with the swirling rumours of the 14-inch MacBook Pro and even the 16-inch MacBook Pro perhaps getting a mini-LED display a few months after. Will these hardware iterations make the current iteration of Apple Silicon chips less powerful or impressive? No, most likely not.

However, the feeling that it is a new processor in an aged chassis or older screen technology with hype raging high of how incredible these devices are in levels of performance (i.e. how amazing the Retina display is) only to be overturned in a few months time with other groundbreaking technologies that may make these M1 machines that we have now seem "old". Perhaps our lack of foresight and excitement built is making a lot of us purchase now and some of us making us purchase again in a few months time yet again when the "bling bling" version of the exterior hardware comes to fruition.

If I had to look at it from that perspective then I could agree with the OP.

 

[seadragon]

I remember the iPad 3. Complete POS. I bought and returned a few of them at that time but they all had bad screens with a very noticeable pink to green colour shift from left to right. Also ran hot and the battery would drain even while plug in from what I recall. I was happy to see the iPad 4 get released only a few months later.

 

[fertilized-egg]

It's a terrible analogy. The iPad 3 wasn't bad because it was replaced soon but because it had the least amount of CPU improvement in the iDevice history, which was none, and its upgraded GPU still wasn't enough to drive the Retina display. Worse, it was built on an old 45nm process which made it run hot and heavy, which is the opposite of the M1.

To be fair, all of us do hope our latest purchase would remain the shiniest and latest gadget as long as possible so that we feel better about our money spent. I can understand it from that point of view. However I don't see why the M1 Macs wouldn't remain productive for a long time unlike the iPad 3.

 

[aleni]

I hated my iPad 3. Its power was being forced to run retina display and it wasn’t enough. It was dog slow, battery runs out quickly and it gets hot pretty bad, meanwhile the m1 is the opposite and it’s a beast. It’ll even last for at least 10 years for most people.