MP 7,1 Ice Lake Based 2021 Mac Pro Refresh Release Imminent?

[leman]

If it has soldered on RAM , less than 4 PCI-e slots , no PCI-e v4 (or v5) , and/or can't take any discrete GPU cards, then I guarantee there will be a 20+ page long thread extolling that it is not. Essentially, yet another replay of what happened when Apple "replaced" the Mac Pro 2012 with the MP 2013 only the I/O "bar" is set higher with the Mac Pro 2019.

Depends on how the product looks like. I agree that a non-modular design is unlikely to go over well with the Mac Pro crowd.

also have little doubt that Apple would probably use the myopic core count metric to claim that they "finished" the transition, but probably keep selling the Intel model for a substnatively long time. (because several customers are going to tell them it isn't). If Apple doesn't drop it immediately upon when the AS version comes out then that tacitly an admission themselves that it isn't.

Oh, I expect the Intel Mac Pros to be supported for years to come. Apple will probably stop selling them around 2023, but they will still be good for a while.

Intel's practice for their TPD numbers is that's the TDP for when it is running at base clock rates. Not turbo. Tubro is higher still. W-3300 generally runs as a slower clock rate than W-3200 does. They are on the non-super-fin 10nm process that leaks like a sieve at higher clock rates. That's why Intel had to blow a big chunk of the IPC improvements on slower clock settings just to tread water. ( dropping to 4.0GHz turbo from 4.4 GHz that the 3200 mostly topped out at. Loosing about 10% ).

Anantech got 292W

" ... When it comes to power, we're measuring a peak 292 W during AVX-512 workloads and 286 W in AVX2 workloads, however this is preliminary data from a few tests we've been able to run so far. ..."
https://www.anandtech.com/show/16822/intel-launches-xeon-w-3300-3365-ice-lake-workstations-38-core

Apple advertises the Mac Pro being able to sustain the CPU at "over 300 watts" (from the Mac Pro description page). Sounds to me like it would do fine.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/16822/intel-launches-xeon-w-3300-3365-ice-lake-workstations-38-core

P.S. decent chance the 38 core will tip over the 300W line . Yet another possible contributing reason to drop it.

Yeah, they are likely to stop with the W-3365 as a top configuration, that would be the simplest solution.

 

[rondocap]

The nominal T2 SSD is not connected to the CPU so the CPU PCI-e provisioning should have zero impact on the primary SSD. Relatively very low changes getting anything other than a reused T2 for secuirty/SSD/fans/audio/etc. If the SSD controller is the same, then pretty likely the implemented SSD is about the same performance.

The CPU PCI-e lanes going to v4 means that the PLEX PCI-e switch that provisions most of the lanes would have a better backhaul to the CPU. I'm somewhat sketipical that Apple is going to provision that v4 increases all the way out to the physical slots ( other than Slot 1 and 3 which don't have the PLEX connected at all. They'll need some additonal PCI-e signals re-drivers to get the single all the way down there from the CPU socket, but that is probably straightforward to do.

Higher backhaul would help. If put two x8 SSD carrier cards in slots 6 and 7 could actually get full x16 aggregate bandwidth if the other slots are filled and active. Wouldn't get full PCI-e v4 throughput, but it was "sag" less with full slots workloads.

It would be cheaper for Apple to hold off on propagating PCI-e v4 downstream from the PLEX switch. Even cheaper still just to use the same PLEX switch as in the Mac Pro 2019 ( and not even get even higher backhaul to CPU). If this is more of a "stop gap" system Apple could possibly cut that trade-off for this update. Apple is rolling out this system, but it is doubtful they are spending the maximum amount of money to do it.



Probably not. Afterburners nominal location is slot 5 ( which is hanging off the PLEX switch). There is a corner case where have on MPX module on slot 1 and put Afterburner into the slot 3 , but I doubt that a norm that Apple would try to sell into. As noted above if they can do some backhaul uplift on the PLEX switch that slot 5 ( 2, 3, 6,7,8) is sitting on then that would help the current Afterburner be more effective in "full slot" setups. That would be "value add" with the same product they got.

An Afterburner 2 that was $600-800 more affordable (perhaps lowered the thermals a bit) , but stll PCI-e v3 x16 bound probably would be better. [ Follow next gen FPGA tech to remove costs. ] There are probably more folks who don't use Afterburner because it is currently too expensive than folks that need more than four concurrent 8K PreRES RAW streams. Would be effective in both 2019 and 2021 Mac Pro which is a broader market.


Apple's comments about the adaptability for Afterburner's FGPA were always couched toward handling ProRES family codec changes/evolution. It was not about doing every codec for everybody. Aftrburner's primary job is to get more folks to buy into recording ProRes RAW. If some big gap in the T2's codec coverage ( versus A14-A15 ) then might be another candidate ( although that gap coverage should also be on the newer GPU chips. But if Apple is backing away from the 3rd party GPUs (and therefore en/decoders...) that could be their super expensive consolation "prize" .

RED RAW on GPUs would get a "free" uplift with new MPX 6800/6900 class implementations and PCI-e v4 connections to pump data across faster. That would be slot 1 and slot 3 that bypass the PLEX switch. Doubtful Apple is going to put lots of effort to "steal" that specific workload back from the GPUs.

As the SoC transistor budgets get bigger Apple is more likely to put fixed implementation of what is on Afteburner into the main package. Afterburner would have been a "bridge to the future" offering just like this ice Lake update is. ( Use this for 3-4 years until we replace it with out own highly custom stuff. )

Thank you for the detailed feedback - exactly what I wanted to know!

 

[dapa0s]

So when do you think we'll see a refresh?

I'm hoping really soon, because I'm in the market for a new Mac Pro. Any rumors that surfaced recently on this subject?

 

[Mac3Duser]

I look forward to it too, and seeing all the deals on the refurb store for some time now, I hope it's imminent.

 

[dapa0s]

Yeah, I've also noticed an increased number of refurb mac pros on the website recently, so who knows, maybe it comes really soon? But the m1x will drop in a few weeks as well, and I wonder how it will compare to the new xeon mac pros.

And the Xeon W-3300 Ice Lake has been out for a month now, it's 10nm, and I don't know what they're waiting for.

 

[jscipione]

Yeah, I've also noticed an increased number of refurb mac pros on the website recently, so who knows, maybe it comes really soon? But the m1x will drop in a few weeks as well, and I wonder how it will compare to the new xeon mac pros.

And the Xeon W-3300 Ice Lake has been out for a month now, it's 10nm, and I don't know what they're waiting for.

The Intel Xeon chips are still in short supply, Apple has to redesign and re-manufacture the Mac Pro motherboard to use the new socket, and the Fall/Christmas shopping season means Apple's priorities are elsewhere. Besides those reasons businesses tend to renew their budgets at the start of the year so Apple has until Jan 1, 2022 to offer the machine for sale (even if it's not quite shipping yet.)

 

[bsbeamer]

Besides those reasons businesses tend to renew their budgets at the start of the year so Apple has until Jan 1, 2022 to offer the machine for sale (even if it's not quite shipping yet.)

Many businesses in the USA are delaying their in-office return until January 2022 at the earliest (including Apple). If the business market who this would be targeted at is not even working in an office, seems there is no added rush to get this in before EOY 2021. Very few are sending these type of workstations to work from home locations. Most have been using iMac 27" for those situations. Some plan to keep those same setups through at least Q2 2022.

 

[jscipione]

This is all speculation, I have no inside info so take with a grain of salt but... shouldn't businesses be MORE inclined to send these types of workstations to work at home locations because employees working from home have reduced access to server resources (e.g. render farms) present at the office?

I expect we'll see the Mac Pro 8,1 made available for sale in late December so that it gets the "Late-2021" designation yet I further expect the majority of units won't arrive in customer's hands until early 2022 similar to the how the iMac Pro 1,1 and Mac Pro 6,1 rollouts went back in late 2017 and late 2013 respectively.

 

[bsbeamer]

shouldn't businesses be MORE inclined to send these types of workstations to work at home locations because employees working from home have reduced access to server resources (e.g. render farms) present at the office?

In a world where budget is limitless, maybe. In reality, it just is/was not happening. Budgets are restricted, business income is not what it was and they're even cutting back office space to save on hard operational costs.

With delta variant changing things again, theoretically there is a chance this may happen, but most seem to be sticking with what they've been doing for the last 12-18 months and trying to buy time or run out the clock with what they have until things get "normal" again. For many companies (especially smaller ones), deploying an iMac27" as an all in one is cheaper/easier without a huge performance drop off. Even if it is a victim of damage/theft inside someone's home, it is largely replaceable. Many have embraced overnight/weekend large render workflows or doing other work from a laptop. Those on news style turnaround deadlines are generally bigger operations and largely some form of in-person.

 

[Mac3Duser]

All your words sound great that's why, I TRULY wait impatiently for the amazing Tim to tell us that the ice lake refresh is ready to be launched.

 

[rondocap]

One thing about Apple updating the GPUs in August though...that seems to be a pretty consequential upgrade, as it's all they did.

What about those people who bought now after these updates? If a CPU refresh comes in December, that seems too soon in these "delayed" times we're living in.

I think those GPU updates most likely bought Apple at least another year before updating the Intel Mac Pro, maybe they'll do it close to when they announce an Apple Silicon Mac Pro as well.

I believe they're two different beasts, the Intel one likely won't be matched yet by the first Apple Silicon Mac Pro - especially on the GPU end. But it may still be cheaper, and very fast for certain tasks.

At the end of the day, the W3300 CPU update is nice to have, but if you're a video editor or working with some 3D content, the GPUs are more than enough to give a bump depending on your workflow. (And even there the new modules aren't a big bump in performance in video)

 

[Mac3Duser]

understandable, but I prefer to have the latest Mac Pro Xeon with PCIe 4, than the current one. Like having Mac Pro 5.1 or 4.1 was better than 3.1. The 3.1 was usable for a while but for a shorter time than the 5.1

 

[Dayo]

The 3.1 was usable for a while but for a shorter time than the 5.1

I get your point but worth pointing out that there is virtually nothing a 5,1 can run that a 3,1 cannot with minimal/trivial tweaks.

 

[deconstruct60]

One thing about Apple updating the GPUs in August though...that seems to be a pretty consequential upgrade, as it's all they did.

What about those people who bought now after these updates? If a CPU refresh comes in December, that seems too soon in these "delayed" times we're living in.

I think those GPU updates most likely bought Apple at least another year before updating the Intel Mac Pro, maybe they'll do it close to when they announce an Apple Silicon Mac Pro as well.

They didn't buy another year in the big picture. They probably go a long way to making the folks who already bought a 2019 system happier over the next 2-3 years. However, sell new MP 2019 system to folks who have balked at buying a 2019 system for the last 18+ months and into the next 18 months ... probably not.

It is going to get even worse when the W-3300 and Threadripper 5000 (Zen 3 ) systems sales start ramping up over the next 6-12 months. the Performance/Price is substantially better than what the W-3200 systems can provide. ( the AMD offering is just more afforable $/Perf for CPU multi-core workloads and the W-3300 is substantially just more affordable is not a huge jump in performance at mulit-core workloads.

So the pricing on the workstation is "broke". They could spend a year with their heads buried in the sand ignoring that in Rip van Winkle mode...... but they are only 'buying' lost market share there. They will be sales to the "fan base" , but they'll be loosing folks with non platform specific workloads.


The GPU updates are going to buy lots less in 6-8 months are the GPU shortage likely easies a bit. It is acutally in Apple's better margin interest to release stuff like the stratospheric high W6900X into this "scalper driven" market for high end card so it looks slightly more tolerable.

Apple pragmatically can't afford to buy and squat on Navi 21 dies. Thye probably have a contract with minimal buys on it. ( so have to take something or start paying penalties. ). Even if Apple wanted to 'eat the costs" and squat AMD wouldn't be happy with a vendor sitting on product when they can't supply enough to their other customers. This isn't AMD of 5 years ago who was happy for Apple soak up excess inventory. AMD can sell every working die they can make now. They have to inventory problem not at all. It is the opposite problem.

Apple also just killed AMD dGPU buys for smaller screen iMacs and about to go to zero on MBP 16".

I believe they're two different beasts, the Intel one likely won't be matched yet by the first Apple Silicon Mac Pro - especially on the GPU end. But it may still be cheaper, and very fast for certain tasks.

If they are assigned to different groups then really doesn't make much sense to try to tightly couple their release.
If Apple did a Mac dog and pony show in October and the W-3300 update was coming in Nov-Dec and smaller M-series variant was coming in March-April 2022 ( but they had a prototype now) then Apple could explain the difference but launch one far in front of the other. They could use their "new product category" excuse on a unreleased product as an excuse for a "sneak peak" .


Also 8-10 years out Apple probably does want to drop macOS on Intel as an actively supported OS. The longer they delay releasing an Intel update the longer the support they are locked into. Doing a late 2021 W-3300 allow them to put the 2019 models officially on the active, vintage/obsolete countdown clock. If they can "peel off" a chunk of folks into the M-series , half sized Mac Pro then the Intel 2021 group will be smaller at the end of its cycle.

At the end of the day, the W3300 CPU update is nice to have, but if you're a video editor or working with some 3D content, the GPUs are more than enough to give a bump depending on your workflow. (And even there the new modules aren't a big bump in performance in video)

the problem for Apple is that folks like Boxx and Pugent systems are selling W-3300 product now. By December Dell, HP, and/or Lenovo will be players also. The ones that aren't doing W-3300 ( or Xeon SP 3rd gen ) by end of December will likely be pushing "all in" on Threadripper for workstations.

Remember folks the bulk of the targeting here is to folks who are still squatting on 2009-2012 and 2013. Those folks all remember Apple skipping viable upgrades from 2014-2018 ( and for the 2009-2012 Apple passing on E5 v1 ). All the other significant workstation vendor's salespeople will have an easy conversation starter on how Apple once again has off in "asleep at the wheel" mode once again and that they have steady , predictable upgrades to depend upon.


Finally, I don't think W-3200 PCI-e v3 backplanes really unleash the Navi GPU cards to fullest extent in a decently wide variety of computational stream workloads. Especially for the Dual GPU processor MPX models. And even more of Apple and AMD updated Metal to cover some Smart Access Memory features. ( that is actually making it closer to the "shared / unified memory" that Apple has for the Apple GPUs. ). Shared memory over PCi-e v4 is substantively better then shared memory over PCI-e v3. Not the same as sharing out of a single pool, but more practical in more situations. The AMD GPU MPX modules are relatively expensive and Apple leaves a substantive amount of performance on the floor with non optimized hardware/software systems in the current offering.

 

[TECK]

Do we expect a refresh this year? Shopping for a 7,1 and I would like to buy a model with the updated PCIe v4. Thank you for the useful information.

 

[deconstruct60]

Do we expect a refresh this year? Shopping for a 7,1 and I would like to buy a model with the updated PCIe v4. Thank you for the useful information.

If Apple is doing a W-3300 update then it should before the end of the year. Boxx and Pugent System are already shipping W-3300 workstations. Pretty likely that Dell , HP, and/or Lenovo are just waiting for volume to ship sometime later this year. The ones punting on W-3300 are readying their ram on Threadripper 5000.

Apple is only digging themselves a much deeper competitive hole to wait longer than the end of this year.

[ W-3300 has arrived pretty late on Intel's timelines. (back in early 2019 it was suppose to be late 2020 ) If Apple was mostly done with the board changes in mid-late 2020 and just largely held up on CPU and GPU parks to make the launch slide out of 2020 to the end of 2021, then they should be ready. The pandemic , fab production shortage, and Intel fab glitches has been the main slow down.

If it is Apple lack of focus and/or priority for the Intel Mac Pro then what Apple what should expect from Apple is 2022 . More of a lack of ability to walk and chew gum at the same time issue. Apple has dung "deeper than need to" holes in the Mac Pro product space before. ]

 

[timerickson]

Great notes deconstruct60, seems reasonable, but Apple has always been okay with taking their time. I'd expect it either late this year or within the first few months of 2022. I'd expect to see the Apple Silicon version of the Mac Pro late 2022, with some distance of months between the last Intel Mac Pro and the new M generation Mac Pro so it feels more like turning the page.

 

[jscipione]

If Apple is doing a W-3300 update then it should before the end of the year. Boxx and Pugent System are already shipping W-3300 workstations. Pretty likely that Dell , HP, and/or Lenovo are just waiting for volume to ship sometime later this year.

The W-3300 series chips are not shipping in volume yet, Apple is in the same boat as Dell, HP and Lenovo here. Boxx and Puget Systems are shipping the few available chips in small volumes.

Apple is only digging themselves a much deeper competitive hole to wait longer than the end of this year.

[ W-3300 has arrived pretty late on Intel's timelines. (back in early 2019 it was suppose to be late 2020 ) If Apple was mostly done with the board changes in mid-late 2020 and just largely held up on CPU and GPU parks to make the launch slide out of 2020 to the end of 2021, then they should be ready. The pandemic , fab production shortage, and Intel fab glitches has been the main slow down.

Since 2018 Apple has refocused on more timely Mac hardware refreshes, they are waiting on Intel.

If it is Apple lack of focus and/or priority for the Intel Mac Pro then what Apple what should expect from Apple is 2022. More of a lack of ability to walk and chew gum at the same time issue. Apple has dung "deeper than need to" holes in the Mac Pro product space before. ]

Apple has other priorities through Christmas. I expect a late December release.

 

[kennyman]

As much as I would like Apple to release a new Mac Pro this year, the Austin facility that has been assembling Mac Pro from 2012 is still working on assembling Mac Pro 2019. Icelake CPU showing up on Xcode does not mean that Apple will release a new Intel Mac Pro soon, it could be that they are prepping future macOS/App codes for both Intel chips and Apple SoC. Apple has said that they will support Intel platform for years to come. So it makes sense to prepare Xcode for both Intel chips and Apple SoCs to be on the safe side.

 

[Mac3Duser]

However we have the feeling that the mac pro are only sold on the refurb (at a price a little more pleasant)

 

[deconstruct60]

As much as I would like Apple to release a new Mac Pro this year, the Austin facility that has been assembling Mac Pro from 2012 is still working on assembling Mac Pro 2019. Icelake CPU showing up on Xcode does not mean that Apple will release a new Intel Mac Pro soon, it could be that they are prepping future macOS/App codes for both Intel chips and Apple SoC.

In September 2019, that Austin site wasn't assembling 2019 Mac Pro's in volume either. It didn't really ramp until late October - early November. ( and some small subset of shops are going to want these rather than the hotter running Ice Lake versions if they do come. ) . I also would be quite surprised if the cases , DIMMs lots , and overall board sizes change that much at all. There should not be some huge down time to roll in major new assembly jigs. Just different boards and parts which get shipped into Austin anyway.

Apple would also need models for service placements and the demand probalby won't fall completely off the cliff before cut over either. Apple had active contracts making the 2013 up until shortly before the 2019 shipped and it was a 6 year old product.

The current MBP 13" four port version is Ice Lake ( Gen 10 10x8NG7 processors )

MacBook Pro - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

What is there in XCode is "Ice Lake SP" ; not just plain Ice Lake. A Ice Lake SP reference board from Intel would have the same I/O chipset as what a W-3300 would have. Same PCI-e lanes also. Apple's design mule prototype board could use Xeon SP 3rd Gen (Ice lake ) to bootstrap the work from a long while back.

Apple does do some things that never see light of day though. There are references to some AMD APU ( CPU+GPU) combos that Apple never did either (but I don't think those made it as far as XCode features though. )

So not a guarantee of a new product, but also a decent indicator.

Apple has said that they will support Intel platform for years to come. So it makes sense to prepare Xcode for both Intel chips and Apple SoCs to be on the safe side.

If they are just covering stuff on Intel side "just in case" then where is Gen 11 ( Tiger Lake) ? In general, "Ice Lake" is already covered by the Gen 10 that is already deployed in MBP 13" systems in large numbers.

Apple is going to support the Mac+Intel platform for years to come. I am lots more dubious that Apple is going to support the new Intel Platforms that arrive Q4 2021 and later. XCode updates for Macs that Apple never ships aren't really necessary to provide support for the ones that do/did.

Xeon SP 3rd Gen (Ice Lake SP) and W-3300 ( same die in workstation configuration and SKU) are technically already shipping with other vendors. if go back to late 2018- early 2019 roadmaps these should have been in high volume mode by mid 2021. That largley got missed and so wouldn't be surprising arriving late to externally visible XCode versions.