August 13th UPDATE:
I received the excessive data usage text message and email today, and called the provided number to speak with a customer service rep about it. It has been 22 days since I activated my iPhone, and I have used ~100mb.
The first rep said they found no flags on my account, nor any reason for me to have received the messages. I called again, and the second rep said the same thing, but this time decided to call "technical support". After a 30 minute hold, he cam back saying everything the email told me, and couldn't answer any of my questions. After being transferred through 3 different departments I was finally connected to the Off-Network Usage department, where a nice woman was able to answer my questions. She told me that if I use more than my alloted data for one month (the lesser of 24mb or 40% total), ATT will take action. They will send a warning or two beforehand, and will also change my iPhone to display "Off-Network" whenever roaming (which they did instantly over the air... creepy.)
When the time comes that a change needs to be made, they give you three options. The first is to have your number ported, with the ETF waived. The second is to have service cancelled, with the ETF waived. And the third is to continue with ATT, but have your phone blocked from using off-network towers.
All three of these options, if chosen after 30 days, allow you to keep your iPhone.
Of note is a contradiction between the customer service rep's statement and the terms and conditions. As listed in the terms and conditions:
Off-net Usage: If your minutes of use (including unlimited services) on other carrier networks ("off-net usage") during any two
consecutive months exceed your off-net usage allowance, AT&T may, at its option, terminate your service, deny your continued use
of other carriers' coverage, or change your plan to one imposing usage charges for off-net usage. Your off-net usage allowance is
equal to the lesser of 750 minutes or 40% of the Anytime Minutes included with your plan. AT&T will provide notice it intends to take
any of the above actions, and you may terminate the agreement.
I confronted her about this, to which she replied it is entirely up to the customer. I guess we'll see in a few days if this is true.
To summarize, receiving an excessive usage notification is not the end of the world. You don't need to forfeit your iPhone, and can even keep your number. The silver lining is being able to take your iPhone -
legally, i might add - to another carrier, away from ATT's prices, policies, and generally poor customer service. Thus far, everything points to the answer being
yes, you can keep your iPhone if ATT terminates your contract.