No you don't absolutely need Marzipan. E.g, Apple could do a transition of the Mac CPU and software ecosystem in a slow, labor-intensive, desktop-centric manner which doesn't leverage mobile app development and further marginalizes the Mac as application development platform.
Those are not alternatives. Marzipan
will not help anybody port huge, legacy-ridden apps with x86-specific code to MacOS-on-ARM - and that's where the sticking point will be. Recently-written (last 10 years?) MacOS applications (apart from systems tools that need to grub around under the hood) are far less likely to be problematical - some will be 'tick-the-ARM-box', others have already done most of the hard work by porting the engine/backend to iOS.
Conversely, if you do write your
new App to be Marzipan-compliant then it
will - by definition - be processor-independent and adding x86 support
will just be a case of ticking the box in Xcode. Building multi-processor binaries is pretty much a solved problem in iOS/MacOS - application framework, UI design, iOS rules on file handling etc. that divides iOS code from MacOS code. Marzipan is primarily about source-level compatibility and pretty much orthogonal to the whole ARM/Intel thing. (Fun fact: the iOS 'simulator' in Xcode isn't an ARM emulator - it "simulates" a mythical Intel-based iDevice and requires the App to have been compiled for x86).
Where Marzipan
might help is where developers are developing new, or substantially re-written Apps and want to support one of iOS or MacOS but are borderline about supporting both. Writing a Marzipan app is
probably always going to be more work than just writing for either iOS or MacOS and
definitely more work if you want it to make full advantage of both operating systems. Developers will need a business case to justify supporting both to make the effort. I'd suspect that it will be mainly used for the sort of simple, limited functionality tool that really earns the "App." abbreviation, and only needs a simple point-and-click/tap UI that doesn't differ much between iOS and MacOS. Which is good, if it means that your e-banking client or the player for your preferred streaming platform makes it onto the Mac.
For more complex applications, I suspect there will come a point where catering for two very different UI paradigms becomes just as much, if not more, work as maintaining two sets of 'front end' code. A well-organised codebase aims to keep the UI/app framework code separate from the crossplatform 'engine' as far as possible, anyway.
NB: just because there are a gazillion iOS users doesn't mean that there are a gazillion customers who want to run 'pro' applications on their iDevices. Last time I looked, iPad sales were dwarfed by iPhone sales too, let alone the top-end iPads.
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Or you could use Marzipan and move it one time, retain maybe 80% code commonality, and sell to three separate markets segments using a single development effort.
There's no reason that you can't have 80% code commonality between separate Mac and iOS versions, unless its very badly written code that jumbles up functionality and user interface. Its likely that a major part of the effort in porting Photoshop to Mac is making it use Metal etc. and making it play nicely in iOS's sandbox. If large tracts of that code can't be shared between iOS and a future Mac version then Adobe are holding it wrong.
Marzipan is likely to have the biggest impact on simpler Apps where, basically, the App
is the user interface (how many apps are, basically, just skins on the browser or media player framework, or are otherwise 'thin clients' for cloud services?)