Interesting Android Wear Numbers

[cmChimera]

Your figures don't refute Cashmonee's argument. The original mac only iPod didn't sell well, and it would have been statistically impossible to achieve a > 3% marketshare.

Having said that, the first gen iPod was sold as a Mac+PC version, so it's possible that you are both right.

Again, what is "not selling well?" It seems to be a successful product, that increasingly became more successful due to improvements in Apple's business strategy.

 

[DravenGSX]

You've played with an Apple Watch? Unless you work in Cupertino for Apple then you haven't 'played' with one. Unless you were at the Apple event and you got to put one on your wrist that simply displayed a demo loop (you didn't actually get to use it).

Sorry, Android Wear.. Didn't think about the fact that the acronym is the same for both.

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In the article, it says 4.6 million total wrist wearables were sold last year, of which, 720,000 were Android Wear. So, it is, by definition, the size of the market. 4.6 million last year. Now, is it indicative of the potential size of the market? That is another question. I was merely curious if people's prediction of first year sales would change knowing that most predicted sales that were larger than the entire wrist wearable market.

I am not surprised that the predicted sales are larger than the entire "smart" wrist wearable market and I have no doubt that Apple could easily double or triple the current market if the watch is successful.

 

[kdarling]

Digging around, I found a little more info for those who are interested:

The sales for all types of wearables (including Fitbit, Jawbone, Nike, Garmin) was more like 12-18 million for the year 2014.

The 4.6 million was only the "smart wearable bands" category. Canalsys defines:

• "Bands" as wearables designed to be wrapped around the body and do not include activity trackers in the form of clips.
  
  
• "Basic wearable" bands as devices serving a specific set of purposes that act as accessories to smart devices, are designed to be worn on the body and not carried, and that cannot run third-party computing applications.
  
  
• "Smart wearable" bands are multi-purpose devices that serve as accessories to smart devices, are designed to be worn on the body and not carried, and are capable of running third-party computing applications.

For just the smart wearables (basically smart watches), the distribution in Q3 was heavily Samsung oriented (lots of choices helped it get over half the market), with Motorola in second place... possibly showing how popular round watches are.

 

[DakotaGuy]

Even if the Apple Watch isn't that great I'd say the logo alone will sell about 10 million of the things in the first year. The rest will be sold because people actually like the device.

http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB51367578116875004693704580451831513966938

I have seen some analysts expecting 26+ million of these things selling in the first year. Looks like everyone will be wearing a watch again.

 

[sp392845]

Agreed.

That's why I say it's smart that Apple put everything and the kitchen sink into their device. (Or as people say about other companies, throwing a ton of things against the wall to see what sticks.)

Notifications, apps, health, payments, cute drawing stuff, pretty bands, etc.

With luck, at least one feature out of all that will be enough to attract a buyer.

Also, I think the design/beauty of this product will be a huge selling point. I know fashion is relative (some other thread on Macrumors was discussing the subjectivity of "design") but I know a lot of people, myself included, will include the Apple Watch's good looks as a step above its competitors...

Although I do think they all do look very fashionable (especially Moto 360), Apple clearly put fashion and design above all else in creating and promoting the Apple Watch. IMHO

 

[kdarling]

Also, I think the design/beauty of this product will be a huge selling point. I know fashion is relative (some other thread on Macrumors was discussing the subjectivity of "design") but I know a lot of people, myself included, will include the Apple Watch's good looks as a step above its competitors...

Personally, I like the bands, but I think the watch itself is a bland design.

OTOH, it leaves plenty of other styles to switch to, in the coming years

Although I do think they all do look very fashionable (especially Moto 360), Apple clearly put fashion and design above all else in creating and promoting the Apple Watch. IMHO

Yep, back in August I brought up the fact that Cook was talking about how to get people to buy wearables, and since he hired fashion experts, I predicted he was going to concentrate on having a jewelry look. It's not a new idea for a smartwatch, but it's a smart move.

 

[deckard666]

I wonder how long it will take Apple to breeze past the TOTAL android watch SHIPMENTS of 720k (for 2014) this April - An hour ?

 

[matrix07]

I wonder how long it will take Apple to breeze past the TOTAL android watch SHIPMENTS of 720k (for 2014) this April - An hour ?

Almost instantly. China alone will be huge. That won't guarantee the watch success in the long run though.

 

[Julien]

Almost instantly. China alone will be huge...

Will it be available in China on (US) launch day? If so how do you know this?

 

[kdarling]

I wonder how long it will take Apple to breeze past the TOTAL android watch SHIPMENTS of 720k (for 2014) this April - An hour ?

First off, you have to be more exact about what you're asking. Watches based on Android, or used with Android?

There were 720K Android Wear sales (it's the same as shipments to analysts) starting from mid-year, with sales constrained by supply.

But there were plenty of non-AW watches sold as well. E.g. Samsung Gear models running Tizen, but only compatible with Android phones.

Altogether, it looks like there could have been about 2.5 - 3 million smartwatches sold to Android owners during the entire year. That's about twice the number sold in 2013, which makes sense.

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As for the Apple Watch, predictions are all over the place.

Analysts have predicted anywhere from 10 - 60 million Apple Watches sold to iPhone owners in its first year. About 1 - 5 million a month.

According to the WSJ, Apple themselves have ordered 5 - 6 million for the initial release quarter, which is an expectation of 1.5 - 2 million a month.

That seems reasonable, since that's similar to how the iPad did in its first quarter, and they have a similarity in price.

 

[matrix07]

Will it be available in China on (US) launch day? If so how do you know this?

Oops! My mistake.