Interesting article on "the end" of Android

[paulsalter]

Not really as extreme, and yes it is a gamble. But one that would pay off hugely if successful.

But give them time to ease the transition and put things in place to do so, and have more people hooked on their own software rather than specific apps from the store. Cover the bases and have support from the outset with the likes of Pandora, Skype, Instagram, WhatsApp etc... then the shock wouldn't be so extreme.

I have no doubt it could be hugely successful

but they have to cover the full eco system if they want people to move away from Android

Web based access
Mac access I assume would be dead as Samsung suck with Mac s/w
Windows access

Email, Contacts, Calendar, Music, Movies etc

It's more than just apps available in the app store

 

[MRU]

I have no doubt it could be hugely successful

but they have to cover the full eco system if they want people to move away from Android

Web based access
Mac access I assume would be dead as Samsung suck with Mac s/w
Windows access

Email, Contacts, Calendar, Music, Movies etc

It's more than just apps available in the app store

Yep - give it time and 24 months is a long time as you know software wise.

The fact they are setting up in Silicon Valley and spending huge amounts of software is first steps along with the continued development of Tizen.

(of course Google could get it's act together before then and project X might actually be the game changer it needs to keep the OS marketshare it has garnered through other manufacturers)....

It's going to be an interesting couple of years.

 

[Irishman]

Merge it with chrome, make killer HTML5 stuff (or maybe an upgrade like HTML6 will be out?) that allows cross-platform services to plug in etc etc.

Well, they won't be doing that, if Schmidt is to be believed.

http://thenextweb.com/google/2013/0...-and-independent-for-a-long-time/?fromcat=all

 

[paulsalter]

It's going to be an interesting couple of years.

it certainly is, looking forward to seing how this works out

As you say, 24 months is a long time

 

[cynics]

Samsung wont leave Android for their own OS. Just because they might be able to make more money from their own OS (one day) doesn't mean they will cut out the large profit they make from Android.

Samsung sells windows phones even though they make more money with Android. There is no good reason to close off that revenue stream. They will sel their own OS right next to an Android phone, a windows phone and a feature phone.

Plus are we forgetting an App Store? It will take a decade for a Samsung OS to catch up to Android as far as apps goif they released their own OS today (keep in mind Android apps will continue to grow).

 

[Irishman]

Samsung wont leave Android for their own OS. Just because they might be able to make more money from their own OS (one day) doesn't mean they will cut out the large profit they make from Android.

Samsung sells windows phones even though they make more money with Android. There is no good reason to close off that revenue stream. They will sel their own OS right next to an Android phone, a windows phone and a feature phone.

Plus are we forgetting an App Store? It will take a decade for a Samsung OS to catch up to Android as far as apps goif they released their own OS today (keep in mind Android apps will continue to grow).

How does Samsung make money from Android, exactly?

 

[MRU]

It will take a decade for a Samsung OS to catch up to Android as far as apps go

Since Android marketplace hasn't been around a decade (just over 4 years) why would Samsung's take a decade ?

Even BB10 App World has just broke through the 100,000 app mark after only a couple of months of being available at retail.

New app stores should be quicker to populate / grow especially if existing app's are easy to port to the new marketplace/device.

How does Samsung make money from Android, exactly?

Other than it being the OS powering the device and therefore selling devices, they don't make money directly from Android OS.

 

[Irishman]

Other than it being the OS powering the device and therefore selling devices, they don't make money directly from Android OS.

Exactly. My point.

 

[sentinelsx]

Well, they won't be doing that, if Schmidt is to be believed.

http://thenextweb.com/google/2013/0...-and-independent-for-a-long-time/?fromcat=all

I tend to ignore Schmidt. He seems to say a lot of stupid things.

I don't know why google keeps him around even.

----------

I think tizen will get up there with the big players. And why not? More competition is nice.

However, i would like google to take proactive approaches with android to keep it relevant as well.

Tizen replacing android is not the solution, it having a fierce competition though, is. With iOS, android, WP8, BB10, Tizen etc, the competitive edge is going to matter a lot in the future.

 

[TheMTtakeover]

I could see Google, in the future, rolling out services on Android but only to OEM's that signed up to a new "android charter". Much like the carrot instead of the stick - we'll provide all the back end eco system for free but you, the OEM, must adhere to a stricter "licensing" of Android to ensure consistency across products.

Possible?

I'm not sure if it's possible or not, I think it would depend how much ego the OEMs have. But I would love for this to happen.

 

[cynics]

How does Samsung make money from Android, exactly?

Selling a hundred million devices without dumping money into App Store development. Kind of a strange question IMO, how do TV manufactures make money from cable and satellite providers? Same way, the providers broadcast movies, TV shows and such and people buy TV's to watch it.

Do you think Android fans will drop Android if Samsung made their own OS? No they would by Nexus, HTC etc.

If Samsung dropped Android they would sell 100,000 (guess) of there own OS devices and lose out on 100,000,000 devices sold.

That's how Samsung makes money from Android. Granted its not directly related to Android the end game is to sell handsets is it not?

 

[MRU]

Do you think Android fans will drop Android if Samsung made their own OS? No they would by Nexus, HTC etc.

If Samsung dropped Android they would sell 100,000 (guess) of there own OS devices and lose out on 100,000,000 devices sold.

That's how Samsung makes money from Android. Granted its not directly related to Android the end game is to sell handsets is it not?

You missed the point entirely.


If Samsung manages to sell 200 million units in the next 24 months (S4 + S5 and others) and increasingly makes more users more tied to its own software S-Apps and accessories that come with the phone or sold along with it then many of those users would choose to stick with their trusted Galaxy 'touchwiz' OS and S-Apps and accessories, than move to another handset.

Whilst indubitably some hardcore users would stick with Android, but I imagine 'hardcore' android users make up the smaller minority of general users with their S3's, S4's & S5's.....

You get your audience entrenched in your own hardware, and s-applications. You sell it to them as an invaluable tool to their lifestyle. You get them to buy lots of accessories and you keep providing new S-applications that replace / fulfil most users needs and then if you do leave android, the chances are they will move with you, as long as you can provide exactly the same experience on your own OS.

At same time, you court developers and get them to port their app to your own OS before you make the big switch, so that when you do - you already have most other app bases covered, easing concerns of those worried about leaving googles eco-system.

You ease consumers into your own way of thinking, and you sell them devices and applications that are aimed at their 'lives' .... They are already doing this with marketing for the S4.

Once you have the audience captured, and the background work/marketplace in place - you switch. The transition is barely noticeable if your touchwiz and S-apps look and act exactly as they did on android OS as they do on your own Galaxy 'tizen based' OS, and you have an eco-system in place where most of the big name apps (skype etc...) are all available.



To say users wont move because they want Android, is the same as saying users wont leave iOS, BB, Windows Phone etc.. When quite clearly as long as you have the hardware and software people want, the OS itself is less of an obstacle as you think.

 

[Irishman]

Selling a hundred million devices without dumping money into App Store development. Kind of a strange question IMO, how do TV manufactures make money from cable and satellite providers? Same way, the providers broadcast movies, TV shows and such and people buy TV's to watch it.

Do you think Android fans will drop Android if Samsung made their own OS? No they would by Nexus, HTC etc.

If Samsung dropped Android they would sell 100,000 (guess) of there own OS devices and lose out on 100,000,000 devices sold.

That's how Samsung makes money from Android. Granted its not directly related to Android the end game is to sell handsets is it not?

You don't think that Samsung would very much like to capture its own app store revenue instead of letting that go to Google? That the investment required to get there is within their abilities, and that they could find ways to spend the hundreds of millions in worldwide revenue such a store would bring them?

To the public, the Galaxy line of phones IS Android. Samsung owns the perception, and - as we all know - perception is reality. They would be foolish not to strike while the iron is hot and go off on their own.

This may not be good news for Google.

 

[paulsalter]

You don't think that Samsung would very much like to capture its own app store revenue instead of letting that go to Google?

Nothing stopping them doing this now, they already have their own app store

 

[MRU]

Nothing stopping them doing this now, they already have their own app store

It's just not the best time - wait until you have a massive entrenched audience guaranteed, rather than just the potential for one

 

[ugahairydawgs]

I'm not familiar with the ins and outs of Google's licensing agreement, can Android OEMs remove access to Google Play on their OS if they so choose?

 

[cynics]

You missed the point entirely.


If Samsung manages to sell 200 million units in the next 24 months (S4 + S5 and others) and increasingly makes more users more tied to its own software S-Apps and accessories that come with the phone or sold along with it then many of those users would choose to stick with their trusted Galaxy 'touchwiz' OS and S-Apps and accessories, than move to another handset.

Whilst indubitably some hardcore users would stick with Android, but I imagine 'hardcore' android users make up the smaller minority of general users with their S3's, S4's & S5's.....

You get your audience entrenched in your own hardware, and s-applications. You sell it to them as an invaluable tool to their lifestyle. You get them to buy lots of accessories and you keep providing new S-applications that replace / fulfil most users needs and then if you do leave android, the chances are they will move with you, as long as you can provide exactly the same experience on your own OS.

At same time, you court developers and get them to port their app to your own OS before you make the big switch, so that when you do - you already have most other app bases covered, easing concerns of those worried about leaving googles eco-system.

You ease consumers into your own way of thinking, and you sell them devices and applications that are aimed at their 'lives' .... They are already doing this with marketing for the S4.

Once you have the audience captured, and the background work/marketplace in place - you switch. The transition is barely noticeable if your touchwiz and S-apps look and act exactly as they did on android OS as they do on your own Galaxy 'tizen based' OS, and you have an eco-system in place where most of the big name apps (skype etc...) are all available.



To say users wont move because they want Android, is the same as saying users wont leave iOS, BB, Windows Phone etc.. When quite clearly as long as you have the hardware and software people want, the OS itself is less of an obstacle as you think.

I see what your saying now. That does make sense too but I still doubt Samsung will ever completely drop Android.

Maybe reduce features that there Android versions have and have added features their own OS has.

It's just hard to believe Samsung can compete head to head with Apple and Apple sells a completely proprietary device. Samsung is in direct competition with other Android manufactures and then in competition with Apple.

I don't really think people think the galaxy line is its own entity either considering people that don't know much about android refer to Samsung devices as "Droid's" (a Verizon only line of phones). And people I talk to around the water cooler. No one has ever confused there galaxy phone with not running Android regardless if they are hating it or praising it.

 

[paulsalter]

I'm not familiar with the ins and outs of Google's licensing agreement, can Android OEMs remove access to Google Play on their OS if they so choose?

Yes

I had a device that didn't have Google Play on it inititally (luckily they decided to add it later)

Amazon Kindle I believe doesn't have Google Play it just has the Amazon store

 

[Irishman]

I'm not familiar with the ins and outs of Google's licensing agreement, can Android OEMs remove access to Google Play on their OS if they so choose?

They do it now on phones running Windows Phone 8. All they have to do (them that can pull it off) is reduce the number of free Android licenses they buy every quarter, producing more of other OS's.

 

[jamojamo]

For the "average" user, both iOS and Android now make perfect sense and perform well enough with enough apps to cover 99% of what people want a smartphone to do.

Samsung is absolutely going to go head to head with Apple because, frankly, who else do they have to compete with?

The smaller manufacturers will continue to tout specs and undercut price (like PC hardware did) and erode Samsung's margins. We've seen Apple's margins erode as well.

Samsung has to monetize the software end of the business, that's why they are pushing the software features. They have the hardware mindshare,or a bulk of it at least (besides Apple). As hardware margins shrink they have to look elsewhere since they are in business to make money.

I dont think they have to dump Android to monetize the software/apps end of the business. I almost view them as an reverse Amazon - Amazon leveraged their marketplace to push hardware. Samsung will use hardware to push marketplace. They make PCs, TVs, Tablets and Phones. If they can tie them together through a "S-Markeplace" they could really have something.

Order a movie on your phone and watch it on your TV from phone or Tablet. The money is made when you order, not how you watch it. It's not something groundbreaking, but they just offer an easier channel by having their S-Apps front and center where you look. Most people will take the path of least resistance.

I think their new advertising as a "Life Companion" could be really powerful if they start really leveraging it across the Galaxy line. That's some pretty aspitational marketing language.

 

[Liquorpuki]

Interesting, but not totally correct (imo). Android has never been about profit for google, it's been said many times over that it's not nearly as profitable as what ios or even windows phone is.

Android is all about providing a hook into Google's web services, and it's very good at doing that. The revenue then comes from ads and the aforementioned services.

If all Google wanted was to push services for ad revenue, it didn't need to spend $$$ to develop its own OS. It could've just piggybacked off other OS's.

Meanwhile you have the following trends on mobile
1 - Android marketshare growing in budget markets where people don't access the internet or where internet access is filtered, meaning Google doesn't make $$$ off these users
2 - Android OEM's rebuilding Android to totally eliminate Google services, like what Amazon did on the Kindle. Google makes no $$$
3 - Mobile ad revenue cannibalizing desktop ad revenue. Google makes no $$$

They spent 12 billion for Motorola. That's a desperation move to find an alternate way to monetize off mobile. Android has been on the market for over 4 years and provided marginal return and little value to shareholders. If you factor the Motorola purchase, they're still in the red when it comes to mobile. Basically Google has spent a ton of money over the past four years making Samsung and Amazon rich.

 

[Vegastouch]

I would expect a curve ball now that Rubin is out.

Thats only if you think Apple is not doing well without Jobs.

 

[Liquorpuki]

I'm not familiar with the ins and outs of Google's licensing agreement, can Android OEMs remove access to Google Play on their OS if they so choose?

It's open source so yeah they can do that. This is how Amazon and Barnes & Noble screwed Google over. They put out successful tablets with custom Android builds that replaced Google's app store with their own, so Google no longer got their 30% app distribution cut.

 

[Krimsonmyst]

If all Google wanted was to push services for ad revenue, it didn't need to spend $$$ to develop its own OS. It could've just piggybacked off other OS's.

Meanwhile you have the following trends on mobile
1 - Android marketshare growing in budget markets where people don't access the internet or where internet access is filtered, meaning Google doesn't make $$$ off these users
2 - Android OEM's rebuilding Android to totally eliminate Google services, like what Amazon did on the Kindle. Google makes no $$$
3 - Mobile ad revenue cannibalizing desktop ad revenue. Google makes no $$$

They spent 12 billion for Motorola. That's a desperation move to find an alternate way to monetize off mobile. Android has been on the market for over 4 years and provided marginal return and little value to shareholders. If you factor the Motorola purchase, they're still in the red when it comes to mobile. Basically Google has spent a ton of money over the past four years making Samsung and Amazon rich.

Google made a ******** of money before Android - I suspect they'll still be doing ok.

 

[Mr. Retrofire]

http://www.splatf.com/2013/03/android-rubin/

Thoughts?

Yeah, he mixes things together, which do not belong together. And btw. the Open Handset Alliance develops Android, not Google Inc.