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Zero chances of M4, zero. M4 is coming either in Autumn or next year, iPad pro is coming in May, regardless of what these codes mean
I understand where you are coming from because of the dates but Ios 18 is coming out with AI features and the m4 chips will have AI features and them delaying the iPad Pro launch they could've done another chip upgrade like they did with the m2 iPad pro. And to not mention the new chip codes because the m3 is supposed to be M3 - T8122 but the new chip codes are T8132. But I guess we will see
 
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It would make sense from a high end iPad perspective but M3 is barely 1/2 year old. It seems that timing is not correct if Macs with M4 are supposed to ship end of the year.
yes but the ipads still are using m2, since they replaced the m2 pro/max early for the m3 pro/max within 8-9 months. I think its possible and m4 can be a bigger advertisement because of ai and more features chip related features.
 
yes but the ipads still are using m2, since they replaced the m2 pro/max early for the m3 pro/max within 8-9 months. I think its possible and m4 can be a bigger advertisement because of ai and more features chip related features.
While I also wish to have an M4 iPad Pro with all the AI goodies it will bring… that same reasoning can be applied to why Apple won’t make such a move.

If they use the new iPad Pro to display all the new M4 AI capabilities, and they won’t upgrade their macs with M4 silicon until the last quarter of 2024, that means all their current M3 machines will suffer in sales. People will automatically see the newly refreshed M3 MacBook Air as an already “old” machine until the M4 Air is released.

At the same time, Apple is already selling Mac minis and Studios with an outdated SoC so who knows, maybe the Air stays in M3 gen while other products such as the iPad Pro and the Mac mini jump into the M4 gen. But it’s a bit weird, NGL.
 
Mark Gurman is now saying there is a strong possibility that the new iPad Pros will use the M4 chip.
 

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The new iPad Pro will kick off Apple’s shift into AI hardware. Earlier this month, I broke the news that Apple is accelerating its computer processor upgrades and Articleplans to release the M4 chip later this year alongside new iMacs, MacBook Pros and Mac minis. The big change with the M4: A new neural engine will pave the way for fresh AI capabilities. Now here’s another development. This year’s Macs may not be the only AI-driven devices with M4 chips.

Gurman
 
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We have been expecting M3 iPad Pros for a while now but I was just browsing through some of the rumors and I noticed something interesting.

There was information from a private X account with a proven track record that shared chip identifiers for the new WiFi + cellular iPad Pros and it’s apparently using a T8132 chip. However, T8132 is not the identifier for the M3 chip which is T8122.

In fact, based on the pattern that the M series chips have been following, it seems like it’s the M4 chip.

M2 - T8112
M3 - T8122
T8132 - M4?

But that’s not all. A few days ago, 9to5Mac found identifiers for the new WiFi+Cellular iPad Pros: iPad16,3 iPad 16,4 iPad 16,5 iPad16,6

M1 based products all start with 13. For example, the M1 iPad Air is called iPad13,16. The 11” M1 iPad Pro is iPad13,4, the M1 Max Mac Studio is Mac13,1 etc

M2 based products are 14. The 11” M2 iPad Pro is iPad14,3. M2 Ultra Mac Studio is Mac14,8 etc

M3 based products are 15. The 16” M3 Max MacBook Pro is Mac15,12. M3 iMac is Mac15,5 etc

But these new iPad identifiers have skipped 15 and went straight to 16. Are we about to get an M4 iPad Pro?
While I like the implication and the reasoning here that a new Apple Silicon chip *should* accompany this new hardware, these are the important issues if I were to get one now (replacing/upgrading my old iPad Air 4ᵀᴴ Gen) as a road machine, that I'm sure Apple will consider. I'm curious to see their take on:
  1. Weight of the new products alone AND with all the fixings - KB,trackpad, numeric pad.
  2. MagSafe adapter - built in, for wireless charging.
  3. Case/Keyboard, re-imagined numeric pad attachable. (might be 3ᴿᴰ party, but weight is critical!)
  4. Bezel-less or minimal for accommodating the larger screen in a smaller footprint. E.G., 12.9" fitting in the current frame size.
  5. Apple M4 Silicon. That goes a long way towards a long life product, BUT with a new CPU comes concern over reliability and battery life.
  6. Battery life! The biggest problem with my current product. I can work around it, but the BMU operation has always been a thorn in my side, esp when using as a book reader.
  7. Cost as with all things Apple, important for value received. Bundling?
 
While I also wish to have an M4 iPad Pro with all the AI goodies it will bring… that same reasoning can be applied to why Apple won’t make such a move.

If they use the new iPad Pro to display all the new M4 AI capabilities, and they won’t upgrade their macs with M4 silicon until the last quarter of 2024, that means all their current M3 machines will suffer in sales. People will automatically see the newly refreshed M3 MacBook Air as an already “old” machine until the M4 Air is released.

At the same time, Apple is already selling Mac minis and Studios with an outdated SoC so who knows, maybe the Air stays in M3 gen while other products such as the iPad Pro and the Mac mini jump into the M4 gen. But it’s a bit weird, NGL.
Is onboard AI as important for Macs as for mobile devices? It feels however like it would be the iPad3 to iPad4 situation for Macs with the exception that M3 is blazingly fast and hardly under dimensioned which the SoC for iPad 3 was from start. I think most people (outside the tech sphere) do not know or think of which SoC it is in the device as long as the device has the label "new" on it.
 
Actually, it crossed my mind to actually bookmark all of their “that’s not happening” comments in order to quote them on May 7th.
Exactly, I was guessing at first but I put the two and two together because, for one they delayed it a month, possibly waiting for new software for the new chips, two- Mark Gurman did say they are planning on working the new m4 chips for macs but why not skip the m3 and use m4 and after finding out the new chip numbers: T8132, this will give us the likeliness of having the m4 chips. And today I woke up with the news of Mark Gurman mentioning that there is a "Strong possibility". Now let's hope the prices stay the same or get a 100-200 dollar bump, not a 400-500 dollar bump.
 
For what it’s worth I predict the new iPad Pros are getting an enhanced M3 with a bigger “neural engine,” not an all-new M4 just six months after the M3s were announced. That would be such a short lifespan for a chip. So maybe an M3X? M3 Plus? That’s my (uncertain) guess.

On the other hand if in the future Apple is consistently mercenary about superseding all-new chips in short time periods, this would fit in with that pattern. They just haven’t been that way until now.
 
For what it’s worth I predict the new iPad Pros are getting an enhanced M3 with a bigger “neural engine,” not an all-new M4 just six months after the M3s were announced. That would be such a short lifespan for a chip. So maybe an M3X? M3 Plus? That’s my (uncertain) guess.

On the other hand if in the future Apple is consistently mercenary about superseding all-new chips in short time periods, this would fit in with that pattern. They just haven’t been that way until now.
A5X lasted about just as long :)
 
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Gurman says that a it's strong possibility, which means he's guessing.

I would put the chances of this below 50%. Guessing and rumors are not bankable. It would be nice (I think), but I would not move on this.
 
This is a good question. Maybe in the short term it is more important to have them on mobile devices first, but I honestly expect a feature parity across iOS, iPadOS and macOS.
I also expect that but "onboard" and mobile devices makes better sense marketing wise.
 
Giving props to OP. 14 days faster than Gurman.

I kinda went to check what I answered here myself. I certainly thought "impossible", but didn't express myself so. Phew. Oh wait.

I guess there is some sense to it after all. Initial 3nm process being a yield nightmare. The caveat that moving to the easier 3nm nodes would require re-designing the architecture. Why bother redesigning if you can just move forward?

It would re-contextualize why the M3 MBA and iPads were released some month apart, also.
 
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Well I guess that at this point everything is possible. As iPadified said earlier this month "Falling stock prices due to slow AI adoption is a strong motivator for rapid and unpredicatble improvements." I guess that's an example of it... They are going big on AI with i(Pad)Os 18 and apparently M1/2/3 neural engines will not be able to support some important new features so they may be doing some unprecedented moves in order to avoid hardware sales suffering from it.
 
I hope all the “absolutely zero percent chance” folks come back and apologize if it turns out to be true… really great deductions and investigative work.
I certainly stand by what I said with the knowledge we had at that moment, based on history and rumors. But apparently the AI train will leave older M-series chips behind, including the M3, so Apple may be making an unprecedented move to avoid hardware sales suffering from this.
We don't know how desirable these AI features will be (for now we have some example with what Samsung and Google are doing, hopefully Apple can do all those things or more on device). But this also shows to those who invested in very expensive 16GB RAM M1/M2 iPads etc in order to keep them for 7+ years, that the future-proofing practice is pretty hard to do, and sometimes it's actually best to spend less and upgrade more regularly...
 
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