I'd get 4. When doing normal browsing and running the usual programs I use about 2 gigs on average. Right now with a little less than average of what I have running, I used 1.8 gigs and have 2.2 gigs free. I do have a myriad of behind the scenes applications running though, so that's taking a chunk out of the allocated RAM.
On top of this, I either have Aperture, Parallels, or a HD movie playing. You should definitely go with 4. It's a lot now but it will pay for itself later on.