Other Is Apple going to hit a Nokia moment?

[ghanwani]

In the article below:
"Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says."

Apple iPhone shipments may see 'significant decline' in 2024, analyst says

Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says.

www.cnbc.com

Remember when everyone was offering clamshell phones and Nokia stubbornly stuck with the candy bar? We're in a slightly different era now but I'm seeing more and more people carrying flip phones.

Edit: I think Flip phones (which open to a regular phone size) are more popular than the Fold phones (which open to a mini tablet). At least that's what I see more people carrying and some iPhone users that I know have switched to those. A second thing is that at its core Apple is an iPhone company. You take that away and everything falls apart.

Edit 2: Back then I preferred candy bar design but was in minority. Just like I am now by preferring Touch ID and LCD.

 

[eyoungren]

We're in a slightly different era now but I'm seeing more and more people carrying flip phones.

Whoever is carrying those can keep them. I don't need an already jack of all trades phone trying to be a jack of all trades tablet. That's what I have a real iPad for. And real computers.

 

[ghanwani]

Whoever is carry those can keep them. I don't need an already jack of all trades phone trying to be a jack of all trades tablet. That's what I have a real iPad for. And real computers.

Actually the Galaxy Flip is more like a regular phone in a compact package. The Galaxy Fold is the giant.

 

[eyoungren]

Actually the Galaxy Flip is more like a regular phone in a compact package. The Galaxy Fold is the giant.

If it folds, I don't want it. Sorry, I just don't seem to have the gene that makes me want one. Probably comes from 10 years of using flip phones (1999-2009) and having to fold them to put them away.

Yeah. No.

 

[dasjati]

No, because Nokia thought they were invincible and didn't need to work hard anymore. According to rumors, Apple has been experimenting with foldable screens for years by now and that's what I would expect from them. They know that their empire can crumble.

At the same time, Apple doesn't jump on every trend. Remember the super cheap laptops some years ago and the tech bubble saw Apple failing, because they didn't offer a $200 laptop? How many people still talk about this? Nobody. Smartwatches on the other hand is a market Apple entered “late“ according to some commentators, because the Pebble (remember that one?) and Googles Wear OS (remember that one?) were already there. Now Apple dominates this market.

I would be surprised if Apple didn't have an answer to these folding phones if they indeed become commonplace what I still doubt for the time being.

 

[eyoungren]

No, because Nokia thought they were invincible and didn't need to work hard anymore. According to rumors, Apple has been experimenting with foldable screens for years by now and that's what I would expect from them. They know that their empire can crumble.

At the same time, Apple doesn't jump on every trend. Remember the super cheap laptops some years ago and the tech bubble saw Apple failing, because they didn't offer a $200 laptop? How many people still talk about this? Nobody. Smartwatches on the other hand is a market Apple entered “late“ according to some commentators, because the Pebble (remember that one?) and Googles Wear OS (remember that one?) were already there. Now Apple dominates this market.

I would be surprised if Apple didn't have an answer to these folding phones if they indeed become commonplace what I still doubt for the time being.

The one thing about Apple that I like is they offer multiple models of their product. If they do offer a foldable, I can ignore it and just go get the next Pro Max model iPhone that I want.

 

[MacDaddyPanda]

lol, Unless the folding phone is the same size as the non-folding phone no thanks. My brother and coworker had the Samsung fold and I got to play around with it. Yeah no thanks. I don't want this thick folding thing in my pocket. The only folding phone I'd want is a dumb folding phone as my burner. Apple won't even make touch screen capable laptop. I don't think they'll care that much about losing a tiny percentage of market to a folding phone that is still niche market being how expensive those folding phones are as well.

 

[cthompson94]

I agree as others have said especially @dasjati. I think that the overall team at Apple understands by now that technology does change and same things are new "fads" and what may stay. I am not saying that Apple will always get it right, but a lot of the older tech companies I don't think were quite expecting the technology boom that happened. Nokia, Blackberry, all of the sliding and flipping phones, you can even say Blockbuster even fell to this.

Is apple as adventurous as they were before of course not, but they are also not a borderline struggling company trying to compete and with almost nothing else to lose. I am sure they have been looking for years now at the folding market and the sales (as best they can) of the folding devices Samsung and others have now, while also not trying to step on their own feet in the tablet market. Remember that the iPad dominates in the tablet market and while I don't think that a folding iPhone will really put a dent in iPad sells, I think they don't want so much R&D in a device that ultimately ends up like the iPhone mini.

Folding devices are rising in popularity also because more companies are offering them, but are enough people willing to adopt them to really make a difference. I know many people who already feel that their Pro Max is large enough as is both size and weight and many people like myself would rather have the current slab and a second device to use as needed and when needed.

 

[sleeptodream]

If Apple offers a folding phone i’ll buy it day 1. My galaxy flip4 is already 90% there, i’m confident apple would have it perfected if they decide to launch one. But as we’ve seen with the mini, “good” sales aren’t good enough for Apple, so it’s not going to happen unless more than ~1/4 of consumers start going that direction (or a large portion of the teen market, which Apple doesn’t want to lose)

 

[Unregistered 4U]

In the article below:
"Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says."

Apple iPhone shipments may see 'significant decline' in 2024, analyst says

Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says.

www.cnbc.com

Remember when everyone was offering clamshell phones and Nokia stubbornly stuck with the candy bar? We're in a slightly different era now but I'm seeing more and more people carrying flip phones.

Edit: I think Flip phones (which open to a regular phone size) are more popular than the Fold phones (which open to a mini tablet). At least that's what I see more people carrying and some iPhone users that I know have switched to those. A second thing is that at its core Apple is an iPhone company. You take that away and everything falls apart.

I don’t think so. See, the EU can make Apple do whatever they want because Apple’s a Gatekeeper. They could update their regulations indicating that Apple, sorry, Gatekeeper companies that print malus domesticas on their products should sell a foldable phone. And if they don’t, they’ll be fined 50% of their worldwide revenue over the next 10 years.

/s

 

[aj_niner]

Unlike Nokia, Moto, Blackberry, Palm, etc, Apple is expanding beyond the iPhone.

 

[boss.king]

This is obviously just anecdotal, but everyone I've spoken to who owns a flipping/folding phone has told me they got over the folding very quickly and would be buying a normal slab phone the next time around. Whether they do it or not is another matter, but I've seen very little excitement about them after the initial new gadget honeymoon ends.

EDIT: I just remembered my barber telling me he didn't even bother closing his Z Flip half the time, he would simply put it in his pocket unfolded.

 

[iHorseHead]

No, because Nokia thought they were invincible and didn't need to work hard anymore

True. Nokia's operating system was very buggy and laggy and it just sucked (sorry for my wording) and they wanted to beat Google and Apple, because they thought they could make a better OS and better phones. A lot of people forget that. Nokia had a terrible SymbianOS which was just awful and laggy. I remember it because their OS pissed me off and when I got my first Android phone (Huawei phone) I was impressed by how much better and smoother it was and then later they went with Windows and sold it to Microsoft where it completely flopped.

 

[n-evo]

Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones

I just don't feel foldable phones are that big of a game changer or something Apple couldn't easily introduce themselves. It's not like iOS (or iPadOS for that matter) can't be fairly easily adapted to fit such a form factor. The huge problem Nokia/Microsoft and BlackBerry were facing had to do with their aging operating systems that just couldn't compete with iOS and Android. By the time they came up with something that could it was too late and they were unable to entice third-party developers to jump onboard their new platforms. That really killed them.

Microsoft did like three code resets that totally alienated their and Nokia's user base. Windows Mobile 6.x users couldn't upgrade to Windows Phone 7. Windows Phone 7 users with brand new Nokia Lumia's were left out in the cold. Because their newly bought Windows Phone 7-based phone couldn't upgrade to Windows Phone 8 and Windows Phone 8 apps wouldn't run on version 7. Just like how Windows Phone 7 apps wouldn't run on Windows Mobile 6 and vice versa. Microsoft completely screwed everyone over in that regard.

A situation like that isn't at play with Apple now.

 

[XboxEvolved]

No because this is what will happen, Apple won't be able to do it much better than Samsung or whomever due to the limitations of the tech, and it won't be as durable and people will complain. People will give Samsung and others passes because they aren't Apple.

 

[ApplesAreSweet&Sour]

Nokia's cell phone success relied on a single product category, cell phones. If they did bet on other product categories then none of them succeeded as we never heard of them.

Apple, conversely, sits a wide variety of hit products, with several of them dominating sales/revenue in their respective categories, like iPhone, AirPods, iPad, and Apple Watch. Then add to that growing revenue from services like Music, iCloud, Apple Care, Apple Card, Fitness, TV, and more.

I think it's safe to say that if Apple's reluctance to put out a foldable iPhone does indeed make sales suffer massively over the coming years, then Apple has a big enough portfolio of other massively successful products that it can take the hit.

Sure, some buyers can't resist the pull towards a new form-factor for smartphones. But Apple still has the strongest eco-system of products by far, and a lot of potential switchers will stay with Apple simply because there's no Watch or AirPods equivalent for any of the foldable.

For Apple's competitors to truly take the lead, they'd have to also take down AirPods and Watch.

As it stands right now, no competitor has anything out now that's making anyone question AirPods and Watch as market leading in their product categories.

 

[Junior117]

As others have said, Apple is not in the same place as Nokia. Nokia had (mainly) phones (I know they had other stuff, but it's mainly B2B stuff if I'm not mistaken; I'm talking consumer-facing products). Apple has phones, tablets, computers, smartwatches, services, etc. Just because a trend is going on, doesn't mean Apple has to jump on it right away (or at all). They usually like to wait until it's mature enough, and then consider it. They weren't the first at literally anything, and they always take several years before jumping on it (if they do it at all). So no: it's not going to cause Apple to be in a similar position with Nokia.

 

[mrfunnypenguin]

I would never use a foldable phone. Would be worried sick about the hinge portion of the screen breaking which I have heard to be an issue.

 

[TechnoMonk]

Anecdotally one of the biggest fans of Foldable phones I know, recently gave up the experiment and got a Google Pixel. He is not an IPhone fan, for some very valid personal reasons. I wouldn’t be mad if Apple released one, but I probably won’t buy either.
Nokia made solid rugged phones, just didn’t catch up with the direction iPhone unleashed. Apple isn’t afraid to cannabalize its own products.

 

[Timpetus]

In the article below:
"Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says."

Apple iPhone shipments may see 'significant decline' in 2024, analyst says

Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says.

www.cnbc.com

Remember when everyone was offering clamshell phones and Nokia stubbornly stuck with the candy bar? We're in a slightly different era now but I'm seeing more and more people carrying flip phones.

Edit: I think Flip phones (which open to a regular phone size) are more popular than the Fold phones (which open to a mini tablet). At least that's what I see more people carrying and some iPhone users that I know have switched to those. A second thing is that at its core Apple is an iPhone company. You take that away and everything falls apart.

Ming-Chi Kuo is right about obviously true things, wrong about everything else. Listening to him is like having a clock that you can only tell is right by checking it against your watch. Sure, he used the word "may" in the sentence, so when he turns out to be wrong (he will, only a tiny % of people want foldable phones and most of them aren't going to buy iPhones either way) he's got his wriggle room.

 

[dontwalkhand]

Apple like all other Apple products, is going the old route of "doing things the Apple Way and people will come"....it doesn't always mean copying what the competition is doing. People know Apple's products for their ecosystem, quality, and ease of use.

 

[JCCL]

The one thing about Apple that I like is they offer multiple models of their product. If they do offer a foldable, I can ignore it and just go get the next Pro Max model iPhone that I want.

Except that if they decide their foldable product is their flagship, then the latest and greatest features will be exclusive to it, leaving you with the option of either picking a form factor you don't like or sticking with last year's flagship's technology. This happens with the max phone currently, the cameras is better and only available in the larger pro model.

 

[Pakaku]

Except that if they decide their foldable product is their flagship, then the latest and greatest features will be exclusive to it, leaving you with the option of either picking a form factor you don't like or sticking with last year's flagship's technology. This happens with the max phone currently, the cameras is better and only available in the larger pro model.

Great cameras don't really count for much these days if the camera app is loaded with photo-"enhancement" algorithms that you can't control or turn off...

 

[cutlub]

I wish we could see the sale figures and customer satisfaction rates vs. the price.

 

[antiprotest]

But after that everybody went to the BlackBerrys which didn't fold or flip. That was never the real issue.