Other Is Apple going to hit a Nokia moment?

[Contact_Feanor]

In the article below:
"Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says."

Apple iPhone shipments may see 'significant decline' in 2024, analyst says

Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says.

www.cnbc.com

Remember when everyone was offering clamshell phones and Nokia stubbornly stuck with the candy bar? We're in a slightly different era now but I'm seeing more and more people carrying flip phones.

Edit: I think Flip phones (which open to a regular phone size) are more popular than the Fold phones (which open to a mini tablet). At least that's what I see more people carrying and some iPhone users that I know have switched to those. A second thing is that at its core Apple is an iPhone company. You take that away and everything falls apart.

Edit 2: Back then I preferred candy bar design but was in minority. Just like I am now by preferring Touch ID and LCD.

The problem with Nokia was not clamshell vs flip phone, but sticking with non touchscreen phones for too long, then sticking with a non-touch-first OS that was quickly converted, then switching to Windows PhoneOS that didn't have the relevant apps. That Nokia didn't go flip phones was irrelevant on a worldwide scale.

The OS of the foldables is exactly the same as the non foldable smartphones, meaning Apple can (and will) expand to those when foldable phones get any real uptake. This is more akin to the "large phone" phase of 2011-2013 and apple sticked with small phones only. They just had to release the iPhone 6 and 6+ and were back in the game.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

Blackberry, Palm, Microsoft, and Nokia, on the other hand, were blindsided by the iPhone and Android, and pretty much I’d say they were all years behind where they should have been in developing an iPhone competitor when the iPhone came out. In some cases, a real mature iPhone competitor from those guys took 5 years after the iPhone launched.

Imagine the iPhone without visual voicemail, unlimited data, being able to buy apps from the phone without going through the carrier, though. While I used to think this was merely a technological advantage, it REALLY was about Steve Jobs. The CEO at AT&T was already a fan and willing to cede a LOT of control and profit opportunities to Apple.

I’m pretty certain there was no one else at that time that could have gotten such concessions from one of the leaders in the space.

 

[eco7777]

As long as Apple delivers MacBooks I don't care if they don't sell one more phone. I hate phones.

 

[nburwell]

I personally couldn’t care less about fold/flip phones. Maybe Apple will release a fold iPhone down the line, but I hope they also keep the current form factor for consumers as well. I don’t have a need for a foldable phone. I prefer my iPhone as is (without folding). Just my $.02.

 

[Hails09]

That's why they're branching out to other ventures.

- Apple TV?
- Apple Watch?
- iPad?
- iCloud?
- Maps?
- Apple Pay?
- Apple Health?
- Apple Music?
- Vision Pro?

But the iPhone is the link to all these items. That’s the item the hooks you into using all these other items.

 

[drsox]

Anecdotally one of the biggest fans of Foldable phones I know, recently gave up the experiment and got a Google Pixel. He is not an IPhone fan, for some very valid personal reasons. I wouldn’t be mad if Apple released one, but I probably won’t buy either.
Nokia made solid rugged phones, just didn’t catch up with the direction iPhone unleashed. Apple isn’t afraid to cannabalize its own products.

I had a folding Motorola phone. Super to use - except after a few days it stank ! Being folded, it never aired out from being breathed on. Never again.

 

[aj_niner]

But the iPhone is the link to all these items. That’s the item the hooks you into using all these other items.

That's how you create an ecosystem?

It's a good business model which many on MR do not appreciate and this Tim Cook's greatest fault is that he's boring.

 

[Trekkie]

Gonna guess more the drop is lack of funds and higher costs of everything more than 'we're tired of this phone type'

Flip phones were popular because they were smaller. Not because they were better. The giant ass 'candy bar' was not very candy bar sized, didn't fit in many pockets well, and had to be worn in a holster like you were some kind of Wild West gunman more often than not.

I've seen the foldable, they're ok, but then to me the problem is two fold. Now you have a 2x as thick phone when it's folded and a 2x as small tablet when unfolded.

Maybe when Android improves or something it might be more usable unfolded vs folded, but I've not seen anything come out of them. I was really excited about the Razr rebrand but the thing was slow, clunky, and didn't really give you much. Other than 'ooh it folds' there was no killer ap or anything that made it really useful that I could see. Of course I only looked at them, I did not give them $2k and see if I could find more for it, only checked out what one person I know out of the 100 I work with bought.

 

[Hails09]

That's how you create an ecosystem?

It's a good business model which many on MR do not appreciate and this Tim Cook's greatest fault is that he's boring.

The point is the iPhone is still the major factor in other services
Take the iPhone away and nobody really uses them

 

[aj_niner]

The point is the iPhone is still the major factor in other services
Take the iPhone away and nobody really uses them

I'm talking about the future, dude.

Your line of thinking is akin to dwelling on the Mac, iPod & Mac Pro a few years after its peak.

Generative AI that will improve Siri will be the next boom.

If Apple's 5G modem fails to come out by 2030 then it will be 6G modems.

 

[Hails09]

I'm talking about the future, dude.

Your line of thinking is akin to dwelling on the Mac, iPod & Mac Pro a few years after its peak.

Generative AI that will improve Siri will be the next boom.

If Apple's 5G modem fails to come out by 2030 then it will be 6G modems.

No my way of thinking is the iPhone is still the biggest driver for Apple & will always be.
Everything else is incremental

 

[WarmWinterHat]

I'm talking about the future, dude.

Your line of thinking is akin to dwelling on the Mac, iPod & Mac Pro a few years after its peak.

Generative AI that will improve Siri will be the next boom.

If Apple's 5G modem fails to come out by 2030 then it will be 6G modems.

Generative AI is even less interesting than the already boring yearly camera upgrades.

Yawn.🥱

 

[aj_niner]

Generative AI is even less interesting than the already boring yearly camera upgrades.

Yawn.🥱

As I said... most of MR finds Apple's direction boring... it makes better revenue than the Mac but it's snores-ville.

 

[gpat]

At the same time, Apple doesn't jump on every trend. Remember the super cheap laptops some years ago and the tech bubble saw Apple failing, because they didn't offer a $200 laptop? How many people still talk about this? Nobody.

The Netbook category mutated into Chromebooks and those totally monopolized the lower education market.
Apple's iPads utterly failed to compete in that regard.
They appeased other categories but Steve was actually wrong about iPads defeating netbooks.

 

[johannnn]

Clickbait article from OP

Ownership of Foldable Smartphones accounts for just 1% of total smartphones

 

[aj_niner]

Clickbait article from OP

Ownership of Foldable Smartphones accounts for just 1% of total smartphones

Small devices with small hinges are a recipe for repair.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

In the article below:
"Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says."

Apple iPhone shipments may see 'significant decline' in 2024, analyst says

Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says.

www.cnbc.com

Remember when everyone was offering clamshell phones and Nokia stubbornly stuck with the candy bar? We're in a slightly different era now but I'm seeing more and more people carrying flip phones.

Edit: I think Flip phones (which open to a regular phone size) are more popular than the Fold phones (which open to a mini tablet). At least that's what I see more people carrying and some iPhone users that I know have switched to those. A second thing is that at its core Apple is an iPhone company. You take that away and everything falls apart.

Edit 2: Back then I preferred candy bar design but was in minority. Just like I am now by preferring Touch ID and LCD.

YMMV. Silly thread.

 

[AF_APPLETALK]

As long as Apple delivers MacBooks I don't care if they don't sell one more phone. I hate phones.

Something recently triggered this same thought in me - mobile phone platforms are absolute crap and always have been. iOS is less worse than the rest, but still. I guess I just stopped thinking about it over time.

 

[progx]

People might be set in their ways with their phones. However, I think people might hang onto them for 4-5 years like a PC rather than every 1-2 years. Depending what Apple, Samsung, Google and other handset makers bring to the table in the next 5-7 years, they all could become a Nokia.

 

[ErikGrim]

Wait. Do you think Nokia failed because of FLIP-PHONES? They failed because of the iPhone. Same as BlackBerry.

The whole of Finland is mad at Apple for basically taking a national identity away from them.

 

[JoeG4]

Ah, I can chime in on this! I own a galaxy fold 4!

You can't expect the current crop of foldables to replace the position that iPhones are in. What I mean by this, is you can buy a new iPhone and be confident it'll last you at least 3-5 years. My other phone is a 4.5 year old iPhone XS... which is currently exhibiting battery issues (which may be pushing the screen off the chassis lol). I am right about to finally replace that one.....

But anyway! Foldables...

13 months in my fold4 needed the screen protector replaced. Sure, I've met people on reddit who had been rocking an original Galaxy fold or a fold 2 for all this time, but I also met plenty of people who had a Fold 3 or Fold 4 where the screen protector de-laminated after about a year, and a lot of the time it also broke the screen.

My point being, these can be a fairly expensive experience right now. I doubt anyone pays the full $1800 MSRP, but even if you paid $800 like I did, it would be kinda sad if you had to toss the phone at the 1 or 2 year mark.

 

[Seamaster]

Nokia's cell phone success relied on a single product category, cell phones. If they did bet on other product categories then none of them succeeded as we never heard of them.

Nokia—like Ericsson—always made more money building networks than selling handsets.

 

[dumastudetto]

Apple understands what their customers want. They don't follow others for the sake of copying them (hey, samsung)!

Apple may build on a sketchy concept others have done badly. The secret sauce is making the experience functionally humanistic in application and approach. Nobody else can do this.

 

[glambutnerdy]

As someone suffering from chronically small hands and pockets in the world of giant phones the concept of the flip is tempting.

However, I can’t help but feel it’s a bit gimmicky. The technology is still very much in its infancy, and many consumers face core issues that come with it, ie creases along the screen, flimsy quality of said screen, battery life, etc. In the end of the day performance trumps form factor, and at that price point lets face it you’ll get your pennys worth with any other phone.

Seems like a fad, by the time they get through those hurdles it’ll already have gone out of fashion.

I also think they are chasing a niche market. Really I think the majority of consumers value larger form factors as a whole, just look at the (lack of) sales of the iphone mini line.

We also can’t underestimate the power of the apple ecosystem. Getting an android phone as someone with an ipad, apple watch, and macbook already would make life a lot more difficult.

 

[Ctrlos]

We still don't know what the long-term viability of foldables is given Samsung always offer suspiciously good trade-ins for annual upgraders. The more public users of foldabls (eg MrMobile) are constantly upgrading and changing. I'd like to see reports from anyone who is still using a Z-Fold 1 after all these years as their daily phone.