iPad Pro Is it worth hedging on M1 being utilized far more in the future?

[ApfelKuchen]

Thanks, I will admit the nitty gritty of hardware can get beyond me. That said, I should have been more clear - I was meaning longevity as for the device capabilities and iPadOS support, rather than the actual longevity of the hardware itself.

I guess I should have simplified by asking along the lines of "with stage manager being supported only on iPadOS w/M1 (lets pretend I wrote that a month ago), is it worth investing in an iPad Pro with an M-series chip over the gen 4 due to better iPadOS support."

Yes, that's an entirely different question. If you're convinced that Stage Manager is the future and will be useful/desirable for your purposes, then Stage Manager compatibility should be part of your purchasing decision, no different than storage capacity, display size, or cellular data might be. It won't be a question of functionality five or more years into the future, but functionality in the nearly-here-and-now.

OSes will continue to evolve. The iOS/ipadOS fork is not yet five years old, and after almost a decade of complaints that Apple was preventing iPad from being all it could be, the tables have turned. We've seen new iPad-unique capabilities nearly every year.

But the future is still unknowable. It's conceivable that in another year Stage Manager might become available on some A-series iPads. Or not. It's also possible that in 3-5 years there will be some new must-have feature that won't be supported by today's M-series systems. It's been that way in computing since well before that day in the early 1970s when I sat down at a TTY terminal in my high school's basement and I committed my first lines of code to a punched paper tape drive.

 

[v1ctorS]

10 years is out of the question. If you're lucky, you can get 5-6 out of your device. Just make sure you get Apple Care, as iPads are difficult to repair.

 

[Digitalguy]

10 years is out of the question. If you're lucky, you can get 5-6 out of your device. Just make sure you get Apple Care, as iPads are difficult to repair.

it's not out of the question, especially if you replace the battery along the way, iPads are still perfectly usable a few years after the last update, however the truth is the most people will "want" rather than necessarily "need" to update before then

 

[BigMcGuire]

As others have stated, I do not hedge my purchase decisions on what may come in the future but more on what I need/want now. Considering most of these leaks are just educated guesses, any attempt to guess on what is coming is a fruitless endeavor. I do enjoy reading about future guesses tho.

Instead, I invest more into now. I used to buy the cheapest base models and upgrade every few years. Now, I’ve saved up and purchased near top line and found a lot more enjoyment in doing so and I can use them for longer too.

So I recommend saving up a little more and buying something more high end - you’ll find more enjoyment out of it and longer use. If you’re looking to get 5+ years of use out of a device, top end hardware is a must imo.

The 1TB/2TB iPads have 16GB of ram. Depending on how heavily you use your device, 5 years could be doable, but the only device I plan on using for 5 years is my MBP 16. An iPad, 3 years is what I’ve seen as the sweet spot before I’m wanting to upgrade again.

I recently picked up an open box iPad Pro 11 (256GB). I plan on using that for several years. Due to my usage habits, this works for me.

It is my opinion that the M1 chip in the iPad could be more utilized and iPad OS does a poor job of utilizing it.

 

[HDFan]

I'd like to have a model that will be hold me over for 10+ years

The hardware will likely still work (with battery replacements) after 10 years. The problem will be software. In 10 years it will likely be more complex and demanding. Most likely latest versions either won't run on the system or will be so slow as to be almost useless. As an example look at Stage Manager which only runs well on latest M1 models, and with restrictions on models just 4 years old.

 

[Digitalguy]

The hardware will likely still work (with battery replacements) after 10 years. The problem will be software. In 10 years it will likely be more complex and demanding. Most likely latest versions either won't run on the system or will be so slow as to be almost useless. As an example look at Stage Manager which only runs well on latest M1 models, and with restrictions on models just 4 years old.

that's because of RAM not CPU power. With 8GB RAM (and swap) it's reasonable to expect that both a MacBook and an iPad won't be slow even in 10 years (I expect them to be just as fast as now actually). With 16GB even more so.
RAM has been the true iPad bottleneck over the past years.
I think it's wrong to project what has happened in the past to the future. Things have changed.
M1 with its 8/16GB RAM and swap feature is a turning point and I even expect Apple to support it for longer than the 8 years it supported the air 2. I'd say from 2020 to 2030 it's not unreasonable for both Macs and iPads (while Intel and non M devices will have shorter support).
Having said that at some point some software features may become exclusive to some future models, but in my opinion not before at least 6-7 years at least, again because M1 is more of a turning point and will run everything for longer...
Where Apple will get people to upgrade is hardware IMO. Oled screens coming in a couple of years. New sizes (14.1in rumored). New connectors that will allow to plug a SSD or Monitor to a new Magic Keyboard too. Camera in ladscape position. All things that the M1 iPads will not get of course.
And at some point even some more futuristic designs like a foldable tablet or a tablet that docks into a new Mac-Keyboard (with trackpad) and becomes the screen for that Mac thanks to a much improved version of Sidecar with support for pencil (but not touch, MacOS will remain a non touch OS IMO), audio etc.

 

[slplss]

Quick preface, I've been wanting to purchase an iPad Pro for a long time. As a personal device that stands in as a laptop, as well as a drawing tablet. In my imagination, I'd like to have a powerful device that has a lot of potential but I could very well be using this mostly for Procreate and Google Docs for writing. I'd like to have a model that will be hold me over for 10+ years, and I figured 3-4th gens could do that.

That said, I am curious how worth it would be to invest in an iPad Pro with an M1. Currently it doesn't seem like it will be required for my needs, but if this will be a device I will hold onto for 10+years, how likely would it be that future iPadOS releases will have multiple features that are tied to M1 chip? I think this is whats causing my dilemma of waiting for the 2022 model to release so I can get the 2021 model, or get an older model for cheap.

I have my still fully functioning iPad 2 since 2011. Then I have fully functioning iPad 3. The difference between the two is the Retina display for iPad gen 3 (besides weight). I believe it shares the same chip, and it shows: iPad 3 is nice to look at, but it's sluggish, far less usable than iPad 2 with lower res display.
So yes, 10 years and more with any iPad you can buy today is definitely possible. I believe M1 after 10 years will be in much better state than A5 from iPad 3. It already handles a high res screen at 120hz. It has a great display and speakers - these things don't change over time.

 

[Digitalguy]

I have my still fully functioning iPad 2 since 2011. Then I have fully functioning iPad 3. The difference between the two is the Retina display for iPad gen 3 (besides weight). I believe it shares the same chip, and it shows: iPad 3 is nice to look at, but it's sluggish, far less usable than iPad 2 with lower res display.
So yes, 10 years and more with any iPad you can buy today is definitely possible. I believe M1 after 10 years will be in much better state than A5 from iPad 3. It already handles a high res screen at 120hz. It has a great display and speakers - these things don't change over time.

Absolutely. When A5 came out the RAM on laptops was about half what is it now (generally 4GB to 8GB, while today is 8GB to 16GB). iPad had 8 times less the standard amount and 16 times less the more comfortable one.
Today iPad pro RAM is on par with laptops.
Same for CPU and GPU, A5 was the first dual core, while on laptops dual core had started 5 years ealier and A5 was more on par with netbooks with Atom chips than with laptops and was only fast because of the stripped down and heavily stremalined/optimized IOS 4 to 6, not because of intrisic power. And it was destroyed by future OS upgrades. And while a decent dual core laptop from 10 years ago is still pretty usable (though not fast), iPad 2 has been unusable for 7 years.
But A series started to catch up and A9X (first iPad pro) started to compete with dual core laptops of its time, while the 2018 A12X was competitive with quad core laptops that appeared in 2017.
M1 was clearly outperforming 2020 laptop chips.
So things have changed dramatically.
I believe a M1 laptop will be very snappy even in 10 years for normal use, especially if it has 16GB of RAM. And I expect the same for the M1 iPad pro. Meanwhile things will be very different for the iPad 9 and its measily 3GB RAM.

 

[aloysiusfreeman]

Ended up getting the iPad Pro 11" 512gb that was on sale yesterday. Very excited

 

[BigMcGuire]

Ended up getting the iPad Pro 11" 512gb that was on sale yesterday. Very excited

A great great iPad. I've used one for years and years and years since 2018. Great device when you spend all day on a computer and you just want to relax and read/watch/etc.

 

[HDFan]

that's because of RAM not CPU power. With 8GB RAM (and swap) it's reasonable to expect that both a MacBook and an iPad won't be slow even in 10 years

Have owned every iPad version. With my usage I have never noted limitations due to RAM. I have noticed differences between CPUS. It is obvious when you measure startup time. Keeps getting shorter even though the OS keeps getting larger and more complex. Same thing with my Macs - every iteration shows significant performance improvements.

I believe a M1 laptop will be very snappy even in 10 years for normal use, especially if it has 16GB of RAM.

Would agree if software requirements didn't change.

" With increasing demand for higher processing power and resources in newer versions of software, system requirements tend to increase over time."

System requirements - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Digitalguy]

Have owned every iPad version. With my usage I have never noted limitations due to RAM. I have noticed differences between CPUS. It is obvious when you measure startup time. Keeps getting shorter even though the OS keeps getting larger and more complex. Same thing with my Macs - every iteration shows significant performance improvements.



Would agree if software requirements didn't change.

" With increasing demand for higher processing power and resources in newer versions of software, system requirements tend to increase over time."

System requirements - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The fact that you haven't noticed does not mean it's not the main limitation. Since iPads so far have not used swap, RAM limitations do not impact speed and only create costant reloads unless the RAM is so little that the OS itself cannot fit without slowing down the whole system. That's what happened with 512MB and 1GB RAM iPads after IOS 9.

Startup time is not just due to CPU, it's also due to storage getting faster and faster. Same for Macs. The impact of storage speed is actually more significant than the increase in CPU power for startup time.

Software resource consumption have impacted both RAM and CPU, even if you have only perceived it as only affecting CPU. In the past iPads have had much more CPU headroom than RAM headroom compared to laptops (CPU started being competive with laptops since 2015 while for RAM we had to wait until M1, but Apple has hidden this by not using swap and by instead ejecting things from RAM, which keeps the device fast by can create data loss depending on what you use, and you might never notice depeding on how you use your iPad).

M1 made a jump in RAM, especially with the 16GB version, while the iPadOS base stayed at 2GB (although only with partial support). Even something like A12x is still perfectly smooth CPU-wise and only impacted by RAM after 4 years and will probably stay smooth for a couple of years more.

M1 has quite a bit more headroom, and if we consider than the base iPad 11 will probably have A15 and 4GB of RAM and at least 6 years of support from 2023 to 2029 I think it's reasonable to assume that M1, which has much more headroom, will stay very snappy until the end of this decade....
Even if it comparatively "slowed down" to current A12X/Z levels by then it would still be very smooth and snappy, especially with 16GB RAM...

 

[HDFan]

which has much more headroom, will stay very snappy until the end of this decade....

Do you have an example of a 10 year old computing product which performs the same now with current software as it did with the software it had when it was released?

 

[iPadified]

I wish people could distinguish between apps from the OS. It is the compute heavy apps, not the OS, that should make use of the M1.

RAM allocation has been problematic for iPad as RAM heavy apps where not supported until iPadOS 16 as far as I understand. There is now no excuse not to put FCP and Logic on the iPad.

When do I find my 2017 iPad Pro "slow": Gaming (Civ VI, XCOM 2) and video exports. When is my M1 Pro MBP "slow": ray tracing and video exports. Both my Mac and iPad are underutilised when not doing these tasks - as they should be.

It would be nice with a "Pro" event: A Mac Pro that will be a compute wonder and a 14+ inch iPad Pro Max/Ultra/Studio, both running FCP and Logic. Given that iPad Pro is as expensive as some Macs, Apple will not care if you use one of the other.

 

[Digitalguy]

Do you have an example of a 10 year old computing product which performs the same now with current software as it did with the software it had when it was released?

Yes, my 2012 Asus ultrabook with a 35watt Sandy Bridge I7, 16GB RAM and a Sata III SSD performs just as well on Windows 10 today as it did on Windows 7 over 10 years ago.

 

[HDFan]

Yes, my 2012 Asus ultrabook with a 35watt Sandy Bridge I7, 16GB RAM and a Sata III SSD performs just as well on Windows 10 today as it did on Windows 7 over 10 years ago.

1. Windows 11 is the "current" OS version. Windows 10 already has an EOL (in 2025) .

2. Of course if you are using the exact same software then it should work the same. If you are trying to use current versions or newly introduced software that's another issue. Software that uses all the resources of todays systems to run responsively won't be useable on a 10 year old system. Have you tried a Premier Pro 4K render on that system? If it is even possible it won't be useable in an environment that demands quick output. Even on current systems the ProRes decoders still can be improved. I expect they will be more of them and faster ones in the future.

3. In 2012 AI was just a gleam in someone's research eye. Computational photography didn't exist. Seriously doubt if that machine could support those features even if you could find the software that supports it.

4. Both are examples of computational demanding applications that were not predictable to be main stream a decade later. Same thing now - no way to predict what demands will be 10 years from now. Based on history we can easily say that the trend is to more complex and resource intensive software which requires increase hardware resources.

 

[Digitalguy]

1. Windows 11 is the "current" OS version. Windows 10 already has an EOL (in 2025) .

2. Of course if you are using the exact same software then it should work the same. If you are trying to use current versions or newly introduced software that's another issue. Software that uses all the resources of todays systems to run responsively won't be useable on a 10 year old system. Have you tried a Premier Pro 4K render on that system? If it is even possible it won't be useable in an environment that demands quick output. Even on current systems the ProRes decoders still can be improved. I expect they will be more of them and faster ones in the future.

3. In 2012 AI was just a gleam in someone's research eye. Computational photography didn't exist. Seriously doubt if that machine could support those features even if you could find the software that supports it.

4. Both are examples of computational demanding applications that were not predictable to be main stream a decade later. Same thing now - no way to predict what demands will be 10 years from now. Based on history we can easily say that the trend is to more complex and resource intensive software which requires increase hardware resources.

No, Windows 10 is still current and supported, and Windows 11 EOL could be anytime, it doesn't make it obsolete.
It just suits your argument to say so.

I don't use video or photoediting software, I use office software and software for my job, which are not particulary power hungry. And I use current updated version of them. Not everyone needs to use those softwares. If you don't need them the lifespan of you device can be much longer.
Again it suits your argument to imply that everyone uses such demanding applications.

My point is that current, non highly demanding software, runs perfectly fine in a 10 year old well specced Windows device, which is something that was not true 10 years ago (vs 10 years ealier).
Similarly 10 years old iPads were extremely underspecced, and are unusable today, but there too things are changed.
An M1 iPad pro, especially with 16GB RAM, will be a very capable device for normal use, even 10 years after its release (contrary to a base iPad).
That does not mean it will still be an "attractive" device for many, as many more harware features will be added in the meatime to entice people to upgrade.

 

[G5isAlive]

No, Windows 10 is still current and supported, and Windows 11 EOL could be anytime, it doesn't make it obsolete.
It just suits your argument to say so.

I don't use video or photoediting software, I use office software and software for my job, which are not particulary power hungry. And I use current updated version of them. Not everyone needs to use those softwares. If you don't need them the lifespan of you device can be much longer.
Again it suits your argument to imply that everyone uses such demanding applications.

My point is that current, non highly demanding software, runs perfectly fine in a 10 year old well specced Windows device, which is something that was not true 10 years ago (vs 10 years ealier).
Similarly 10 years old iPads were extremely underspecced, and are unusable today, but there too things are changed.
An M1 iPad pro, especially with 16GB RAM, will be a very capable device for normal use, even 10 years after its release (contrary to a base iPad).
That does not mean it will still be an "attractive" device for many, as many more harware features will be added in the meatime to entice people to upgrade.

So your point is if you don't ask much of your hardware by using simple software and run older operating systems that you can use old hardware?

So noted.

 

[rui no onna]

So your point is if you don't ask much of your hardware by using simple software and run older operating systems that you can use old hardware?

So noted.

In fairness, most iPad buyers don't use super demanding apps. That's why Apple can put 3-year old chipsets on their bestselling iPad model (regular iPad).

 

[Digitalguy]

So your point is if you don't ask much of your hardware by using simple software and run older operating systems that you can use old hardware?

So noted.

No, you didn't understand my point. My point is that nowadays hardware can last much longer than in the past, especially if you don't run very demanding software and your software can be perfectly up-to-date even after 10 years and sometimes more. This was clearly not possible in the past. And, especially with iPads, very often you don't buy high end ones to run super-demanding stuff but because of the additional premium features.
My sister just upgraded from an iPad 6 32GB to an 11in M1 256GB 5G.
She doesn't need any video/photo editing app. She mainly needs office, a browser, a book reader etc.
She got the pro since she wanted the pencil 2 and enough RAM to avoid reloads, and storage space. She could have got the air 5 256, but the pro was on sale and for the price difference she was happy to get better speakers and promotion.
This tablet can last her many years. I wouldn't be surprised if it lasts her 10 years. I have no doubt the apps she uses needs will be fast and up-to-date then, even if OS updates only last 8 years (I think they'll last more for M1).
Apparently some here assume people only buy iPad pro/air for video editing or gaming, that's not the case.

As for Windows 10 it's not older operating system, it's perfectly current and most Windows users don't want Windows 11. I will not upgrade any of my eligible computers before the end of 2025 because Windows 11 is a regression from 10, at least for now. Someone with a decently specced desktops from the early 2010s could have upgraded for free to Windows 10 and use it's till 2025 absolutely fine if they don't game or video editing (or simply don't do stuff in 4k).
I am an example, to some extent, my desktop is from 2014, came with Windows 7, i7-4770, I just upgraded the RAM from 16GB to 32 and added a better GPU (but I don't game, I did when I was a teenager in the 90s but now I don't have time for gaming and it can easily become an addiction).
It's plenty fast for my use with multiple 4k monitors but mainly office and university (I am a university teacher) software, plan on keeping it at least until the end of 2025 and probably by then I'll bypass Windows 11 requirement (it's relatively easy if you are a bit tech savvy) and update it to Windows 11 for some more years of use. But even in 2025 it will be over 10 years old and still plenty fast.