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Apple should...

Now they don't publish these numbers, but there's a thread in here somewhere that I gave a realistic estimation of the numbers based on general workstation figures (excluded everything else, including servers from these figures) and using Apple's general market share at the time. It wasn't large at all.

But it's not just the raw market share numbers, but the growth rate. So even if the current market share were only 10k systems, but had a growth rate of 35% per quarter, it would be more worthwhile than say a market share of 50k but .1% growth per year.

This is what they're looking at in terms of ROI. How much will they get back from their initial investment over the cycle. If it's not within their level of acceptability, they'll look to shift that money into another product that is expected to have a much better ROI performance (pre-existing or a new product entirely that's exiting the research phase and needs to be developed into a finished, ready to sell product).

Nano,

That is some good economic analysis, but you make a fundamental error. Apple has 100 billion in cash which at least as far as the public can tell Apple will never spend. Seriously, Apple for as far as we can reasonably foresee will be cash flow positive every month. That cash is sitting in US treasuries and other safe investments earning probably less than 4%. Investments in the Mac Pro just needs to beat that return to be worthwhile. Investments in the iPhone would not suffer because a few additional folks were hired to work on the Mac Pro.

My experiences are probably unusual, but I have three friends who own Mac Pros. They aren't professional computer folks. They don't need it. But they each make a good chunk of change every year and they like "the best". They will buy Mac Pros again, as long as the line is never killed and it remains plausibly "the best". I'm also a potential Mac Pro buyer. I think there is a larger market here than Apple realizes. Though I won't argue that it is a growing market. If the next Mac Pro can be set up to run a 27 inch retina display and that is the only desktop that can do it or at least only desktops at that level can do it, that would be a great story to sell.
 
Apple has 100 billion in cash which at least as far as the public can tell Apple will never spend. Seriously, Apple for as far as we can reasonably foresee will be cash flow positive every month. That cash is sitting in US treasuries and other safe investments earning probably less than 4%. Investments in the Mac Pro just needs to beat that return to be worthwhile. Investments in the iPhone would not suffer because a few additional folks were hired to work on the Mac Pro.
I realize that Apple (and other companies for that matter), are sitting on huge piles of cash.

Keep in mind however, that even though they may not be earning a lot on it right now, it gives them the possibility to invest immediately when they feel the market has improved sufficiently (see something that looks attractive in regard to ROI, limiting competition, ...).

And that what may be attractive may not be a product, but an entire company, which is a lot more expensive (take a look at their more recent acquisitions; software companies to get the IP they were after, and a chip company to design their own custom ARM chips for the devices). Those types of purchases aren't exactly inexpensive.

If you've noticed, Apple isn't the only company that's been busy in the mergers/acquisition arena either.

But if they invest in lower ROI products such as the MacPro, those funds would no longer be available when that "something better" comes along, especially if it's a large purchase such as another company. It's still their perspective on ROI.

Now personally, I don't entirely agree with this type of thinking, but my opinion means absolutely nothing to Apple. I'm the type of person that would be putting more money into R&D, and gaining control over the entire development and manufacturing process in order to insure both new products in the pipeline, and have proper Quality Assurance and Control from start to finish.

But I'm an engineer first and foremost, not an accountant. :p

My experiences are probably unusual, but I have three friends who own Mac Pros. They aren't professional computer folks. They don't need it. But they each make a good chunk of change every year and they like "the best". They will buy Mac Pros again, as long as the line is never killed and it remains plausibly "the best". I'm also a potential Mac Pro buyer. I think there is a larger market here than Apple realizes. Though I won't argue that it is a growing market. If the next Mac Pro can be set up to run a 27 inch retina display and that is the only desktop that can do it or at least only desktops at that level can do it, that would be a great story to sell.
This isn't all that uncommon, particularly as past Intel based MacPro's where actually less expensive than their PC counterparts in the past due to a pricing arrangement between Intel and Apple (Intel made the logic boards). Unfortunately, this changed with the 2009 systems, and the price increase has pushed a lot of the enthusiast users away, leaving the core professionals to foot the bill as it were (growth rate essentially evaporated as a result of this, and the realities of the workstation market is shrinking has caught up with Apple).

Combine this with a lot of professional users are realizing that the value is no longer there (OSX & Apple hardware no longer have the edge over PC's as they did in the past), Apple's professional customers seem at least open to the idea of switching for their computing solutions.

Pricing and lack of a future are the fastest ways IMHO to make this happen (users go from "thinking about it" to actually buying their next system from a different vendor).
 
The amount of horsepower we can expect from the 2013 mac pro will be worth the wait. With mac minis exceeding the old model mac pros, and geekbench scores that are substantially larger, the machines we can expect to see in the pro lineup will be powerful. I wouldn't be surprised if the base model was a hex core.
 
I hope its not a Mac Pro with non-replaceable RAM and only 1 hard drive slot...

Extremely unlikely since even the just updated iMac and Mac mini don't even meet that criteria. Both take at least two storage devices and both have serviceable RAM.

Laptops? Yes, that is a trend. Desktops? No where in sight. Anywhere.
(arm flapping about the iMac not having two internal 2.5" bays entirely misses the trend. )

The 21.5" iMac's memory is a pain to get to but it is replaceable.
 
Extremely unlikely since even the just updated iMac and Mac mini don't even meet that criteria. Both take at least two storage devices and both have serviceable RAM.

Laptops? Yes, that is a trend. Desktops? No where in sight. Anywhere.
(arm flapping about the iMac not having two internal 2.5" bays entirely misses the trend. )

The 21.5" iMac's memory is a pain to get to but it is replaceable.

I was being facetious.... and actually somewhat serious seeing how ass backwards Apple has become.
 
I realize that Apple (and other companies for that matter), are sitting on huge piles of cash.

Keep in mind however, that even though they may not be earning a lot on it right now, it gives them the possibility to invest immediately when they feel the market has improved sufficiently (see something that looks attractive in regard to ROI, limiting competition, ...).

And that what may be attractive may not be a product, but an entire company, which is a lot more expensive (take a look at their more recent acquisitions; software companies to get the IP they were after, and a chip company to design their own custom ARM chips for the devices). Those types of purchases aren't exactly inexpensive.

If you've noticed, Apple isn't the only company that's been busy in the mergers/acquisition arena either.

But if they invest in lower ROI products such as the MacPro, those funds would no longer be available when that "something better" comes along, especially if it's a large purchase such as another company. It's still their perspective on ROI.

Now personally, I don't entirely agree with this type of thinking, but my opinion means absolutely nothing to Apple. I'm the type of person that would be putting more money into R&D, and gaining control over the entire development and manufacturing process in order to insure both new products in the pipeline, and have proper Quality Assurance and Control from start to finish.

But I'm an engineer first and foremost, not an accountant. :p

Nano,

I understand the application of those ideas, but the size of Apple's cash pile just is so large you can't think that use of some of it for something as relatively inexpensive as improving the Mac Pro (i.e., making a big boxy computer, which is hardly breaking new ground like the iPhone, and is right in line with Apple's core competency) could possibly keep Apple from being able to do anything it wants to. Apple is now sitting on $125 billion and is probably looking at another $10 billion in profit just next quarter. Apple could also easily issue billions in new stock. And Apple as a AAA rated company can borrow billions, if it wanted, at interest rates that might be below inflation. And, as you point out, Apple doesn't really do large acquisitions. But Apple has access to well over $150 billion fairly easily. And any large acquisition would also, presumably, bring the ability to support debt, so let's round up Apple's access to capital at an even $200 billion and growing if it ever wanted to do a big acquisition.


There is no point in keeping this money lying around. But that is another subject.

The main point is that Apple could spend money on the Mac Pro if it wanted. It obviously doesn't because it isn't doing it, but it isn't because they don't have cash available to use. There isn't a ROI calculation going on. And if they are doing it, they should be comparing it to the return on US treasuries they are getting with their cash. They are never going to productively use the amount of cash they are generating. It just can't be done in their area of expertise. But I think it must be something else. I'm still going with the argument that Mac Pros are lingering because Thunderbolt can't get integrated onto the current chips right. I don't have the technical knowledge to really understand how that can be a problem, but it is the only thing I can think of that is keeping them from just throwing in some new CPUs and GPUs and getting out something fresher.

Anyway, let's see what 2013 brings us. I believe we have been promised a refreshed Mac Pro by then. If I come into a financial windfall between now and then, perhaps I will buy one.
 
Why do you think USB3 is so unimportant? Ever experienced USB3 in real life? Granted - there are still some issues with hubs or incompatibilities (one of the reasons why Apple waited so long to introduce it imho: drivers and hardware simply were not ready for prime time). But if you stick to buying quality components for the time being and stay away from cable extenders and (cheap) hubs, USB3 is as stable as e.g. Firewire.


Yeah, but doesn't your CPU take a hit when transferring files? That is my concern. Maybe single file writes to/from one device, are not noticeable. Now that I think about it, that is probably how most people will use USB3.
 
Its simply a matter of price.


a new mac pros would cost too much, and the current software can't really keep up with the new hardware they would put in a mac pro...

Honestly a 2010 or 2011 is just a better purchase still..

or build a pc for half the price of a mac pro and just as much power... if not more...


see where im going with this? I got a early 2008 mac pro... cause it was a competitively priced per power purchase at the time. Now it is not.
 
I would imagine that the R&D needed for the MacPro is minimal; the hardware is all off-the-shelf and the OS tweaks are nearly routine.

I suspect the only obstacle for the SB-MacPro was no Thunderbolt.


Nonetheless, I do see cracks in Apple's foundation. Not sure if it is related to SJ's absence, but to have the new iMac up in the store without option to buy, that is a major operational cockup, one I doubt would have happened with the man still there. So we can not buy a current (or pre-order a new) iMac until November? Seriously? Almost two weeks of no online orders? That is so un-Apple...

There's more little cockups like this, and then there's big ones like Maps...

The site had a couple rumors regarding delays due to display manufacturing problems. The attempt to reduce glare is really the only thing I like about the update. It's something that benefits anyone who would buy one of them. The rest of it is kind of a blah step. I don't see a reason to make one of their desktops even more thermally constrained than a notebook in the interest of cheesy aesthetics.

By skipping out on the latest SB5E Xeons, they wouldn't be able to cover what R&D would be spent on the next round of CPU's (same market position) by as many systems since they've skipped on the first half of the cycle for LGA2011 sockets.

I was kind of wondering about this in that given the amount of attention the machine has received, would they really go through the board design, testing, etc for the Ivy cycle alone? They could debut Sandy late, especially if Haswell Xeons are sliding further out. We haven't seen what will really be released with the Ivy revision. It might be an incomplete lineup again. That is always a possibility, especially if appropriate Haswell Xeons are further out. They could do something like late Sandy early 2013 and skip Ivy. I suppose they could also go with the lighter Haswell Xeons based on the mainstream cpus without integrated graphics. The performance boosts don't seem like they'd be enough though for that severe core count limitation. I don't have everything to look up in terms of lane allocation in each variant or any real speculation on the gains per core with the next revision, so I'm not sure about feasibility on any of those things.

Thunderbolt hasn't really taken off enough to be a crucial consideration, and I don't believe it's due for a spec update until 2014. Seeing as it's doubtful a product line will languish that long, it seems like a compromise in that area no matter what they release.

Yeah, but doesn't your CPU take a hit when transferring files? That is my concern. Maybe single file writes to/from one device, are not noticeable. Now that I think about it, that is probably how most people will use USB3.

It's too minor to make a difference these days. I doubt you'd notice even in an idevice.
 
I said this on another forum. I feel the Mac Pro should be entirely a BTO machine you can only buy and configure from the Apple Online Store. Sell a model that's fairly basic starting at $1,999 (or worse $2,199) and then offer tons of options to keep up with current technology from RAM to SSDs to hard drives, solid state, fusion, video cards, and raids and everything.

Get this thing back up to speed.
 
I'll call the next Mac Pro spectacular only under one condition...it must be able to use PC video cards as interchangeably as a PC.

Actually, it can do that right now. It can use many off the shelve PC video cards without flashing it.
 
I was kind of wondering about this in that given the amount of attention the machine has received, would they really go through the board design, testing, etc for the Ivy cycle alone? They could debut Sandy late, especially if Haswell Xeons are sliding further out. We haven't seen what will really be released with the Ivy revision. It might be an incomplete lineup again. That is always a possibility, especially if appropriate Haswell Xeons are further out. They could do something like late Sandy early 2013 and skip Ivy.

There is no good reason to skip either Sandy Bridge or Ivy Bridge. The only rational reason to skip Sandy Bridge is that the rest of the machine couldn't be finished before April/May 2013. Meaning the board design and industrial design was started so late in 2011-2012 that just couldn't finish before late Summer 2013.

http://www.engadget.com/2012/10/17/intel-roadmap-reveals-10-core-xeon-e5-2600-v2-cpu/

For Ivy, it isn't so much incomplete as much as staggered rollout. The recently leaked roadmap diagram suggest that the E5 1600 is going to roll out later into Q3. Given Intel's recent track record that likely means no volume systems shipments until late Q3 or early Q4.

Liklely Intel is going to sell the Core i7 variant of the base E5 1600 design foundation first before moving on to 1600 itself.

If Apple released Sandy Bridge E5 based Mac Pro in Jan-March 2013 and followed on with a Ivy Bridge model in either very late 2013 or early 2014 that would put them back on track. Haswell Xeon E5 probably wouldn't arrive before Q4 2014 given Intel's recent extended "tock" (new arch) delays with Xeons ( ticks pretty close to 12 months and tocks more like 18 months ... or more ).


I suppose they could also go with the lighter Haswell Xeons based on the mainstream cpus without integrated graphics.

Not if they want to provide decent I/O. Mainstream Haswell Xeons (E3) are going to be saddled with the same 20 PCI-e lane restriction as the current ones. They'll also will still have the 4 core cap.

The arm waving that folks do about "Core i7" replacements on the "Extreme" end is on the same cycle as the Xeon E5 updates plus/minus a quarter ( which at this point, 3-4 year tick-tock update cycle, isn't much of a difference. )



Thunderbolt hasn't really taken off enough to be a crucial consideration, and I don't believe it's due for a spec update until 2014.

TB in 2014 isn't going to change the core design orientation that graphics and PCI-e connectivity is available on the motherboard. Probably a speed bump update.

If trying to align with TB as a priority, the Haswell chips with integrated graphics would be a better aligned choice.

----------

I was being facetious.... and actually somewhat serious seeing how ass backwards Apple has become.

Ass backwards from following the overall PC industry into slumping and negative growth ... well yeah.
 
Yes, it is dead. Cubic meter of aluminium crap that is as fast as a less than half price mini. Dead as a Dodo. Computing in 2012 does not go by the cubic meter any longer.
If you need more power, scale 4 mini's for the price of a 12 core Pro and achieve 52000 points in Geekbench for a wonderfull small, silent and energy efficient render farm.
 
Yes, it is dead. Cubic meter of aluminium crap that is as fast as a less than half price mini. Dead as a Dodo. Computing in 2012 does not go by the cubic meter any longer.

Utter nonsense, right up there with Apple's implication the iPhone 5 that the laws of physics are merely suggestions.

For high performance there are associated thermal and power problems. those require cubic centimeters to solve. Dissipating the heat isn't going leave Thermodynamics and aerodynamics behind.

If you need more power, scale 4 mini's for the price of a 12 core Pro and achieve 52000 points in Geekbench for a wonderfull small, silent and energy efficient render farm.

If have an extremely embarrassing parallel computing problem that may work. If not (e.g., algorithms used in Geekbench ), it won't. If try to couple those 4 mini's with anything close to the internal bandwidth of a 12 core Mac Pro the costs will quickly equalize.


The problem the Mac Pro market has is not that it is "dead as a dodo", but that it is shrinking. The Mac Pro needs more applications and better hardware foundation (as simple as Sandy Bridge Xeon E5's ) to find a wider, more diverse set of users.
 
The MacPro is not dead because there is no market interest, but because apple Føcks up with the OSX roadmap. OSX is no longer an OS for the heavy-duty users, at least Apple no longer wants it to be suited for that. So get out of here stinking academic rendering MacPro 12 core users! Me Apple does not want you any more.
 
I was kind of wondering about this in that given the amount of attention the machine has received, would they really go through the board design, testing, etc for the Ivy cycle alone?
I don't see this happening.

Intel created the tick tock cycle intentionally as a means of both speeding up the development process (particularly on the second half), and extending the number of units the costs are divided by. Using the same chipsets for both halves of the cycle is another part of it.

This implementation is also advantageous for system developers as well.

They could debut Sandy late, especially if Haswell Xeons are sliding further out. We haven't seen what will really be released with the Ivy revision. It might be an incomplete lineup again. That is always a possibility, especially if appropriate Haswell Xeons are further out. They could do something like late Sandy early 2013 and skip Ivy.
Introducing SB late, then shifting over to Ivy may be a possibility, but given the time they've sacrificed, this seems a bit of a long shot to me (haven't seen anything from Intel to indicate the LGA2011 IB variant has been pushed back by a year or more, but given the current state at AMD, I will concede that this is at least possible).

As per a late SB intro and skip IB, I seriously doubt this. Same problem initially mentioned, just in reverse; sell only one half of the cycle.

I suppose they could also go with the lighter Haswell Xeons based on the mainstream cpus without integrated graphics. The performance boosts don't seem like they'd be enough though for that severe core count limitation. I don't have everything to look up in terms of lane allocation in each variant or any real speculation on the gains per core with the next revision, so I'm not sure about feasibility on any of those things.
Thinking along the traditional lines of a workstation, the lane counts of the mainstream parts will be too limiting, but I can see Apple deciding that 20 lanes is good enough (16x for the GPU and 4x for the TB chip).

If they do this, there will be a performance penalty, particularly in the higher end MP models that have 6+ cores in the systems when used by software that can utilize them.

But their profits are generated by the consumer market, so such a shift would allow them to again pick up customers from this segment. And that's what I think they're after. It would certainly work to increase ROI, which is what Apple is all about these days ($$$).

Call me jaded, but it makes the most sense to me... :p

Thunderbolt hasn't really taken off enough to be a crucial consideration, and I don't believe it's due for a spec update until 2014. Seeing as it's doubtful a product line will languish that long, it seems like a compromise in that area no matter what they release.
Workstations aren't currently it's target anyway, so I don't see this as sufficiently important enough to hold up workstation development.

Worst case, a card can be added at a later date, particularly for a data only implementation for sharing peripherals with laptops equipped with a TB port/s.
 
Introducing SB late, then shifting over to Ivy may be a possibility, but given the time they've sacrificed, this seems a bit of a long shot to me (haven't seen anything from Intel to indicate the LGA2011 IB variant has been pushed back by a year or more, but given the current state at AMD, I will concede that this is at least possible).

Depends on what motivated the sacrifice. Just because they are behind doesn't mean they have to quite. The company has $120B cash burning a hole in their pocket. If the comeback trail is 1, 2, or 3 years long they are under no pressure for it is be as short as possible.

Although Intel introduced Sandy Bridge Xeon E5 in March 2012, the system vendors weren't shipping in volume until May-July 2012 ( HP late May , Dell in July). Sure Apple is behind, but Jan-Feb would only be slightly more than half through the Sandy Bridge cycle. For example if is was intended to be a 2 year SB/IB cycle for Xeon E5 there is still roughly 3/4 of the cycle left.

So it is "late" versus June 2012, but early 2013 is not "too late to try". Even on a 'short' cycle they'd still more than break even at their current run rates.

As per a late SB intro and skip IB, I seriously doubt this. Same problem initially mentioned, just in reverse; sell only one half of the cycle.

Actually not. They would be selling the same length of the cycle. The problem would only be they'd be selling a "tick" behind for most of it. Very similar to how Xeon 3500's were sold in the Mac Pro line up from 2009-2013. They are still selling and there would be some ROI (at least as much as they are getting now).

The major problem is user base erosion. Some folks will continue to buy but every larger numbers of going to bolt as customer over time as it is time to replace their hardware.

Very similar issue of selling the current line for an extended period of time in 2013. They can make some money but they'd be shrinking the user base. It is already small and has growth problems.


Thinking along the traditional lines of a workstation, the lane counts of the mainstream parts will be too limiting, but I can see Apple deciding that 20 lanes is good enough (16x for the GPU and 4x for the TB chip).

If Apple still believes in OpenCL then I don't see how they come to the conclusion that 20 lanes is "enough".

It would be more like Apple's history to take something like the extremely expensive Nvidia Maximus http://www.nvidia.com/object/maximus.html set-ups and create a system ( hardware + OS + OS framework ) that is half as expensive with much less than half of the performance drop.


If they do this, there will be a performance penalty, particularly in the higher end MP models that have 6+ cores in the systems when used by software that can utilize them.

If they think they are going to replace x86 cores with GPGPU cores ones then not really.

Lack of PCI-e lanes really chokes off network and external I/O throughput more than anything else. Say goodbye to unimpaired 10GbE , very high throughput DAS , multiple GPGPU card configs.

But their profits are generated by the consumer market, so such a shift would allow them to again pick up customers from this segment.

They already are getting those customers. Folks are sliding down from Mac Pros into iMacs. If Apple placed a more expensive box capped with an iMac equivalent CPU they aren't necessarily got to pick up very many more users. They may get some Mac Pro refugees but it probably won't be a huge market expander.
 
I don't see this happening.

Intel created the tick tock cycle intentionally as a means of both speeding up the development process (particularly on the second half), and extending the number of units the costs are divided by. Using the same chipsets for both halves of the cycle is another part of it.

This implementation is also advantageous for system developers as well.

I'm looking at what happened with Westmere where the base options remained roughly the same in a number of workstations. The mac pro still contains one nehalem option at the bottom.

Introducing SB late, then shifting over to Ivy may be a possibility, but given the time they've sacrificed, this seems a bit of a long shot to me (haven't seen anything from Intel to indicate the LGA2011 IB variant has been pushed back by a year or more, but given the current state at AMD, I will concede that this is at least possible).

As per a late SB intro and skip IB, I seriously doubt this. Same problem initially mentioned, just in reverse; sell only one half of the cycle.

Well assuming they're maintaining the use of this processor class, any update will be awkwardly positioned.

Thinking along the traditional lines of a workstation, the lane counts of the mainstream parts will be too limiting, but I can see Apple deciding that 20 lanes is good enough (16x for the GPU and 4x for the TB chip).

If they do this, there will be a performance penalty, particularly in the higher end MP models that have 6+ cores in the systems when used by software that can utilize them.

But their profits are generated by the consumer market, so such a shift would allow them to again pick up customers from this segment. And that's what I think they're after. It would certainly work to increase ROI, which is what Apple is all about these days ($$$).

Call me jaded, but it makes the most sense to me... :p

HP sort of experimented with that. Their Z1 has the 20 lane E3 Sandy Xeons, but it's an all in one. What customers do you think they'd pick up in this area? They had a strong presence in media editing for years given final cut pro and desktop publishing. I don't know how much they lost from FCPX and printed media has been shrinking for years. In terms of consumer markets, gaming is a point of weakness. I'm just not sure I see them going for the classic desktop tower at this point in the game. I saw the next 20 lane Xeon variants as a possibility, but knowing Apple it will still cost almost as much. $2000+ for the pleasure of owning a machine without severe thermal constraints:p.

Workstations aren't currently it's target anyway, so I don't see this as sufficiently important enough to hold up workstation development.

Worst case, a card can be added at a later date, particularly for a data only implementation for sharing peripherals with laptops equipped with a TB port/s.

I don't think so either. I see thunderbolt as awkward at this point. USB3 tends to be good enough for consumer uses. Mini-SAS on the higher end and eSATA on the lower end were out prior to thunderbolt. It's combination of price and positioning is somewhat awkward to me. I also find Apple's designs to be a bit weird. They aren't slimming things down because power consumption has naturally declined and parts have shrunk. They seem to just go the route of cramming everything into the smallest case possible to give the impression of a next generation machine even if suitable parts for such a design haven't come into existence. I really hate the emphasis on aesthetics as the top priority.
 
Depends on what motivated the sacrifice. Just because they are behind doesn't mean they have to quite. The company has $120B cash burning a hole in their pocket. If the comeback trail is 1, 2, or 3 years long they are under no pressure for it is be as short as possible.
Given there's little development on Apple's behalf due to the outsourcing of the hardware development, I find it hard to believe that software development availability time was the governing factor if they truly intend to keep the MacPro in it's current form.

As per that $120B burning a hole in their pocket, I don't actually see that at all. Quite the opposite in fact. Even the front page articles posted here in MR indicate that they're in no hurry to rid themselves of that liquidity (not like they're in danger of a hostile takeover). But rather they're sitting on it while they wait to decide on what to do with it, and those decisions are carefully weighed regarding their long term strategy, such as buying companies that further their control over their consumer products.

Haven't noticed any particular purchases aimed solely at the professional market lately, and take that as yet another indicator that this market has taken a significantly decreased role in their product line.

Although Intel introduced Sandy Bridge Xeon E5 in March 2012, the system vendors weren't shipping in volume until May-July 2012 ( HP late May , Dell in July). Sure Apple is behind, but Jan-Feb would only be slightly more than half through the Sandy Bridge cycle. For example if is was intended to be a 2 year SB/IB cycle for Xeon E5 there is still roughly 3/4 of the cycle left.

So it is "late" versus June 2012, but early 2013 is not "too late to try". Even on a 'short' cycle they'd still more than break even at their current run rates.
I get what you're saying, but even if they take this approach, this will have a negative effect on sales volume due to those that will go for the latest hardware at the time they're purchasing (those leaving Apple). There's also the negative effect on quarterly sales figures that will wait for the newer hardware to arrive on such a release strategy for Apple (eventually get these sales, but only during the quarters Apple is offering the latest hardware <on par with PC vendors>).

The major problem is user base erosion. Some folks will continue to buy but every larger numbers of going to bolt as customer over time as it is time to replace their hardware.

Very similar issue of selling the current line for an extended period of time in 2013. They can make some money but they'd be shrinking the user base. It is already small and has growth problems.
This is one of the significant issues for me (and what I just posted). It's small enough now that a lot of workstation vendors are feeling the pinch, and given that Apple is an even smaller player in this particular segment, the damage that they'd cause themselves in this market, may be untenable, causing the demise of the MP as we know it.

If Apple still believes in OpenCL then I don't see how they come to the conclusion that 20 lanes is "enough".
I don't think they are interested in OpenCL any longer, particularly when I see the changes made to OSX. User experience is focused on improved integration with the consumer devices, not professional users.

It would be more like Apple's history to take something like the extremely expensive Nvidia Maximus http://www.nvidia.com/object/maximus.html set-ups and create a system ( hardware + OS + OS framework ) that is half as expensive with much less than half of the performance drop.

If they think they are going to replace x86 cores with GPGPU cores ones then not really.
Still requires PCIe lane counts in excess of the mainstream CPU's though, so boards would still have to use the performance oriented chips (enthusiast socket, which is currently the LGA2011).

Lack of PCI-e lanes really chokes off network and external I/O throughput more than anything else. Say goodbye to unimpaired 10GbE , very high throughput DAS , multiple GPGPU card configs.
Exactly, and if this scenario comes to pass, the resulting product isn't really a workstation.

They already are getting those customers. Folks are sliding down from Mac Pros into iMacs. If Apple placed a more expensive box capped with an iMac equivalent CPU they aren't necessarily got to pick up very many more users. They may get some Mac Pro refugees but it probably won't be a huge market expander.
They may have gotten some, but not all of them.

As per pricing, the box can be similar, but adding the monitor could put it over the iMac. But the advantage to this implementation, is that the user can select their monitor and escape the glossy screen or size complaints.

Well assuming they're maintaining the use of this processor class, any update will be awkwardly positioned.
It fit their cost parameters, and for the user, it's at least in the same class with a slight clock increase (not the same as a move from the enthusiast socket to a mainstream socket part would be).

Even if such a move can generate similar benchmark numbers for the CPU (or at least at an acceptable level for users), there's still the PCIe lane count and resulting configurations that would be a step backwards for workstation users. Which is a significant part of a workstation's performance, as they tend to be used with hardware that feed the CPU and memory faster than the included sub-systems (networking and disk controllers included on the board for example).

HP sort of experimented with that. Their Z1 has the 20 lane E3 Sandy Xeons, but it's an all in one. What customers do you think they'd pick up in this area?
Monitor (AIO) or not, it's still usable for a lot of creative content users (audio, photo editing, video editing). Not exactly ideal in all cases, but usable, and it's this aspect that Apple will latch onto I suspect. ROI would be better IMHO, as it can be aimed at the enthusiast market again, particularly if it isn't an AIO (similar to an iMac, just without a screen so there's less direct internal competition between their own products).

And given their marketing capabilities, there's a real chance such a product could survive due to the wider target audience.

Now consider the previous complaints of their professional use software shifting to a "prosumer" oriented product makes sense here IMHO, as this market would buy more machines than just the traditional professional workstation market would.
 
I agree with you about OS X no longer being of importance for heavy-duty users. OS X for all intents and purposes is nothing more than a toy OS with IOS integration built in. The last great Mac OS X versions were Leopard and Snow Leopard hands down. Lion was a mitigating disaster from the start and Mountain Lion isn't too far behind.

As I see it Apple simply is not interested in the Mac Pro and its community of pro users... or they want to try and convert as many of the pro users and community to the iMac and then pull the plug on the mighty Mac Pro, as they did with the Xserve. Time will indeed tell if the next Mac Pro will be anything like the ones we now know and love. Tim Cook's letter did NOT point to any mention of a new Mac Pro(in plain words which weren't there), but something wonderful for pro users.. I have a hunch we are going to see either an xMac which would be smaller in size and not as upgradable, or something along the lines of the iMac or iMac Pro.

We simply don't know what will be of the Mac Pro, but all I know is that if Apple changes the design and or drops the Mac Pro as we know it in the present form, then who knows what will become of the Pro market. Apple does not care about pro machines, only the iPad, laptops(naturally), and IOS.

While I have Mountain Lion, I still use Snow Leopard because its the last true MAC OS X thats out there. I don't like seeing under "About this Mac" - OS X.. i like seeing MAC OS X.


The MacPro is not dead because there is no market interest, but because apple Føcks up with the OSX roadmap. OSX is no longer an OS for the heavy-duty users, at least Apple no longer wants it to be suited for that. So get out of here stinking academic rendering MacPro 12 core users! Me Apple does not want you any more.
 
While I have Mountain Lion, I still use Snow Leopard because its the last true MAC OS X thats out there. I don't like seeing under "About this Mac" - OS X.. i like seeing MAC OS X.

How can anyone argue with this reasoning?
 
Given there's little development on Apple's behalf due to the outsourcing of the hardware development, I find it hard to believe that software development availability time was the governing factor if they truly intend to keep the MacPro in it's current form.

Contractors don't work for free. If Apple doesn't cut them a check I doubt they are going to work now and maybe get paid later. The same factor that reassigns Apple software folks from working on Mac Pro oriented software to other projects can just as easily hire other external contractors to work on other projects that Apple execs deem have higher priority.


As per that $120B burning a hole in their pocket, I don't actually see that at all. Quite the opposite in fact. Even the front page articles posted here in MR indicate that they're in no hurry to rid themselves of that liquidity (not like they're in danger of a hostile takeover).

I'm not saying Apple is going to use any of the $120B to develop a new Mac Pro. They don't need to. There is plenty of funds in the cash flow from operations to fund a Mac Pro (and all of Apple's other products) . That is the whole point. Money is flying in faster then they can even save it. The primary point is that they are not going to panic if sorting this out is going to take 4, 8 , or even 12 quarters. Apple isn't worried about short term results. They are going to execute against long term (relative to the rest of the industry) plans.

There is zero need to pull anything from their cash pile at. Apple is effectively self-insured and their own banker. If they loose a patent case. Doesn't matter. If a product fails. Doesn't matter. If they pick a product mix that isn't quite optimal. Doesn't matter, there is time to fix it. In short, it allows Apple to make deep, thoughtful, deliberate decisions about where they are going.


But rather they're sitting on it while they wait to decide on what to do with it, and those decisions are carefully weighed regarding their long term strategy,

The vast bulk of that money isn't there to be spent or distributed at all. It is there just that no rational press starts talking about how Apple is doomed and about to go bankrupt. As Apple grows bigger they need a bigger and bigger pile to keep the doom and gloom folks at bay. It isn't going to spent in the normal order of operations, product mix, or really even on most normal acquisitions (acquihire and tech tidbit buys).

It is a big club they can "speak softly but carry a big stick" in a number of areas in the pursuit of various interests.

When the iPad and iPhone cool off from red hot growth perhaps then they will use it more as major investment reserve but for now bigger is better just because it is bigger.


Haven't noticed any particular purchases aimed solely at the professional market lately, and take that as yet another indicator that this market has taken a significantly decreased role in their product line.

They don't need to. The problem they had in the late 80's is that Mac market share had dropped below critical levels. When Macs were heading down to 2-3% of the personal computer market very few sane software vendors are going to follow Apple down to even lower levels. Without a viable software ecosystem the platform has major problems. ( desktop Linux for example. ). When the software ecosystem was weak then it was critical for Apple to make a small number of major (relative to free cash available) strategic investments.

The professional software market does not solely run on the Mac Pro. In fact, that was one of the major problems with very high end audio/video was that needs all sorts of additional doo-dads to make a workable system. Now that even the current mainstream hardware can do reasonable jobs without modification, Apple doesn't have to buy the company so there is a "mac only" option.

Placing bets on "professional software" is less risky in part because most of the pro software is run into the ground with 'death spiral' pricing. Apple buys some $2,000-10,000 per seat software and reprices it so that it isn't killing itself and ta-da it is not too hard to at least minimally recoup the investment. Most more broad based software doesn't have death spiral problems so typically presents higher risks. So when Apple had not so large money to invest they invested safer. (and along lines of interest the CEO already had ... Jobs half time Pixar CEO isn't very suprising he investing associated with A/V content business since that was his other day job too. )

the bigger payback Apple got from that early return of Jobs era though was on iTunes. Which was much more risky but had a much bigger upside than any of the other "pro" stuff they bought.


Running the Mac App Store is going to have a far deeper and lasting impact on a healthy Mac ecosystem then generating a "pay day" for a small handful of companies selling out their business that has plateau'ed or are in decline.

Apple has fixed the software ecosystem problem by

1. roughly doubling the Mac base.
2. Putting the Mac user base on a growth path to at least maintain that perctage relative to the classic PC market.
3. coupling OS X tools and libraries to a much larger ecosystem ( iOS ).

There is no need to step in and rescue under-performing software titles, since the normal investment capitalists will fund OS X software now.



I get what you're saying, but even if they take this approach, this will have a negative effect on sales volume due to those that will go for the latest hardware at the time they're purchasing (those leaving Apple).

It is not a long term strategy. It is far more likely a short term strategy to bring them back into alignment with the Intel release cycle. It should be obvious to all at this point that they are off. It is also immaterial why or how they got off. If the objective is to get back on they can but it will be non-optimal.

Apple's major need is to get back to a somewhat predictable release schedule for more than to be perfectly aligned with Intel's schedule.

There's also the negative effect on quarterly sales figures that will wait for the newer hardware to arrive on such a release strategy for Apple (eventually get these sales, but only during the quarters Apple is offering the latest hardware <on par with PC vendors>).

No. The weak PC vendors have to closely align themselves with the cycle but Apple has much wider wiggle room. Apple doesn't have years of wiggle room but they certainly have quarters.

At least as long as Apple is on the extremely solid financial footing and most of the rest of the PC industry is one banana peel slip into a huge fiscal problem (if not already in one ... cough Dell and HP).

This is one of the significant issues for me (and what I just posted). It's small enough now that a lot of workstation vendors are feeling the pinch, and given that Apple is an even smaller player in this particular segment, the damage that they'd cause themselves in this market, may be untenable, causing the demise of the MP as we know it.

But those are also the kinds of contexts where Apple can come in and "reinvent" the category by address the users in a different way that is a better fit with the more forward looking technologies. Part of the decline of the workstation business is that they are just milking the same cows. There is little to no innovation other than myopically cranking benchmarks and marketing gimmicks. VGA and PCI slots .... baggage.


I don't think they are interested in OpenCL any longer, particularly when I see the changes made to OSX. User experience is focused on improved integration with the consumer devices, not professional users.

Actually going with a 100% Nvidia line up is more damaging to OpenCL than any user experience move. It is only going to add to the proprietary CUDA code inertia.

Apple is integrating with iOS for the same reason Apple took very significant steps to integrate with Windows in the late 90's to present. Primarily because they both greatly out number it. OS X positioning itself as a market dominating player is beyond delusion. It is not. It never will be. There is always going to be more widespread OS ecosystems that it is going to have to integrate with. The PC war was over almost two decades ago. It is long past time to get over it.





Still requires PCIe lane counts in excess of the mainstream CPU's though, so boards would still have to use the performance oriented chips (enthusiast socket, which is currently the LGA2011).

Right. Which means it makes sense to move the Mac Pro into the future if making those adjustments can lead to an expansive market.



Exactly, and if this scenario comes to pass, the resulting product isn't really a workstation.

Eventually it largely will. The debate is perhaps as to whether it will take 5 or 10 years to get there. At some point Intel puts 10GbE , Thunderbolt, and a huge GPU into the CPU package and then the whole workstation market is on a giant slippery slope to permanent niche market.

It would not be surprising if Ivy Bridge E5 1600 still had 4 and 6 core options with perhaps a top end 8 core one. If so it one trend could be toward doing SoC like consolidation even on this subset of Xeons also.

As per pricing, the box can be similar, but adding the monitor could put it over the iMac. But the advantage to this implementation, is that the user can select their monitor and escape the glossy screen or size complaints.

Not really if look at the trends. IPS monitors keep dropping in price. It is now in the $300 range. In another year, they will likely drop down into the $200 range (at least for smaller sizes). Pricing a headless iMac on top of iMac prices won't provide very little or nothing at all price separation.

Apple addressed the glossy screen issue in the latest iMac. We'll see if it is satisfactory or not. But a better screen is the answer to a flawed subcomponent; not a new, largely overlapping product to promote cannibalization. That strategy has driven the overall PC industry into the dismal innovative state it has been in for the last 4-5 years.
 

Not dead. Good probability of an update in 2013. I am looking forward to it, even if it is more evolutionary than revolutionary. IMO, the MP is is as cool as an outdated computer can be. Rock on MP!!!
 
Tim Cook's letter did NOT point to any mention of a new Mac Pro(in plain words which weren't there), but something wonderful for pro users..

Continuing to cite the original Tim Cook emails just FUD, plain and simple.

This got cleared up months ago.

" ... Apple PR has reached out and clarified that only the Mac Pro is expected to be next updated in 2013.... "
https://www.macrumors.com/2012/06/1...c-pro-and-imac-designs-likely-coming-in-2013/


I have a hunch we are going to see either an xMac which would be smaller in size and not as upgradable, or something along the lines of the iMac or iMac Pro.

I have a hunch the xMac is giant pile of hooey. ( xMac implying the often asserted significant reduction in price deep into the iMac's zone. )

Given the dramatically thinned iMac ... replacing with an iMac is an even bigger pile of hooey.

iMac Pro also relatively unlikely. At least, if Apple sells decent numbers of the Mac Pro. If the revised Mac Pro doesn't sell well Apple probably will kill it. However, that isn't Apple unilaterally killing it. It takes two to tango.

Apple might split the Mac Pro into two (or more) boxes with one smaller than the other. However, they'll be very recognizable as a Mac Pro descendant box and extremely likely to have a Mac Pro label.

If they can creatively get reasonably high reuse but also fill the $2,000-2,500 gap in the Mac Pro's price zone then that would greatly help them to sell in larger numbers. That doesn't mean the role being played by the current single CPU package model would disappear.

However, the ongoing mantra inside of Apple on high levels of design reuse across and inside product lines suggest that they won't split the single and dual package models.

A new Mac Pro will very likely be different on the inside for a couple of reasons.

1. It is highly likely that Mac pro will get "Fusion Drive". If the mini and the iMac got it... there is almost zero rational reason to leave it out of a Mac Pro. All Macs are going Flashed based by default at some point.

2. The mini dropped the ODD. The iMac dropped the ODD. You can wave your arms as much as you want but the Mac Pro is likely next. The internal space for at least one of the ODD bays will likely get reassigned to something else. There is at least a 50% chance it will loose both on this revision.

Anyone who feels that an ODD is part of the essential core essence of the Mac Pro is in deep disagreement with Apple at this point. If there is a height or weight issue and the ODD is in the way it is toast at this point. For example, rackable likely trumps dual ODD at this point. ODD higher proirity than 2.5" bays? Nope. Versus larger Power supply to support more power hungry GPGPU cards? Nope. Versus cooling for more power hungry GPGPU cards? Nope. ........


3. Thunderbolt. If there is a reduced upgradability due to loss of a PCI-e slots this will likely be the root cause. Thunderbolt isn't really necessary on a Mac Pro but it appears the Mac Pro would likely be put under a cloud of "doom and gloom" by a vocal subset if it also doesn't incorporate Thunderbolt. This probably means getting an embedded GPU but that doesn't mean that the PCI-e slots disappear.

Do those 3 change the essence of a Mac Pro. Not really.
 
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