Longevity of older iPad models

[BrettAP98]

My iPad mini 2 works great. Little slow with some apps, but is rather nice. I'm going to retire it as soon as I get the 6th gen.

 

[EugW]

I'm also interested to see what they will do with this conundrum. The only reason I can see that the Air 2 and mini 4 might get a stay of execution (nominally due to 2GB RAM) is actually due to the mini 4 hanging around so long. The fact it's only just been discontinued makes me wonder whether they would immediately cut off anyone who bought one since iOS 12 launched... otoh, that's probably not all that many people? While the announcement will be in June, actual support won't end until September, and iOS 12 should have a useful life of at least a couple of years after that as well. So in usual circumstances, I would say the A8 generation of devices will all be going as that seems to be how Apple (now) prefers to do things. They called out the iPhone 6 plus last year as a device which will benefit from iOS 12's optimisations, which makes me think at least the iPhones will definitely be gone (and presumably the iPod touch 6 (A8/1GB) which despite the pretty solid evidence of a successor is even now on sale!). In effect the A7s got an extra 'bonus' year of support with iOS 12, and going by the 1 generation per iOS version, you'd have expected the A8s to be dropped this year anyway.

I would be shocked to see the iPad Air 2 and iPad mini gone in iOS 13.

I expect all the 1 GB devices to be gone though.

 

[rui no onna]

I would be shocked to see the iPad Air 2 and iPad mini gone in iOS 13.

I expect all the 1 GB devices to be gone though.

Hmm, I expect all A7/1GB devices to be dropped on iOS 13.

A8/1GB, eh, we'll see.

 

[joeblow7777]

It's A5 devices that were dropped all at the same time despite having differing amounts of RAM. Afaik, all A7 devices have 1GB (iPad mini 2/3, iPad Air, iPhone 5s).

Will be interesting to see what happens with A8:

• iPhone 6: A8/1GB
• iPhone 6+: A8/1GB
• iPad mini 4: A8/2GB
• iPad Air 2: A8X/2GB

I was just saying A7 as a hypothetical example, but you’re right, it was a poor generation to mention for my point.

 

[MBAir2010]

My next door neighbor offered his ipad, i declined. The pad does seem more solid tho

 

[joeblow7777]

I would be shocked to see the iPad Air 2 and iPad mini gone in iOS 13.

I expect all the 1 GB devices to be gone though.

I think that A8 devices will be supported, and this includes the 1GB iPhone 6 and 6 Plus

 

[Makayla]

I only recently gave away my antient iPad 3. It could still play movies and music with no problem. Web browsing was slow but most other apps work just fine.

 

[EugW]

I pulled this table from here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPad

And then I added the SoC and RAM specs:

Based partially on this, my prediction:

iPad Pro 10.5" - Last version of iOS is 15.x in 2022 (for ~5.25 years of support)
iPad (2018) - Last version of iOS is 15.x in 2022 (for ~4.5 years of support)
iPad Air (2019) - Last version of iOS is 16.x in 2023 (for ~4.5 years of support)

Given that app support usually lasts a good couple of years after the last iOS update, that means the iPad Pro 10.5" should be good with third party software for about 5 years from now (2024) and the iPad Air for about 6 years from now (2025), assuming the SoCs are powerful enough at that time.

However, by that time I'd probably be pining for a new ~11" iPad Pro with something like A16X or A18X.

 

[Shanghaichica]

I had my iPad Air 2 for 2.5 years and it was still going like a champ when I upgraded to the 10.5 inch pro. This July I will have had my pro for 2 years and I plan on keeping it for at least another year if not two. I think iPads can easily last at least 4 years.
[doublepost=1553328937][/doublepost]

I'm starting to think you may be right that the 1 GB A8 iPad mini 4 will also get iOS 13 (but the 1 GB A7 iPad Air won't).

I pulled this table from here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPad

And then I added the SoC and RAM specs:

View attachment 827835

Based partially on this, my prediction:

iPad Pro 10.5" - Last version of iOS is 15.x in 2022 (for ~5.25 years of support)
iPad (2018) - Last version of iOS is 15.x in 2022 (for ~4.5 years of support)
iPad Air (2019) - Last version of iOS is 16.x in 2023 (for ~4.5 years of support)

Given that app support usually lasts a good couple of years after the last iOS update, that means the iPad Pro 10.5" should be good with third party software for about 5 years from now (2024) and the iPad Air for about 6 years from now (2025), assuming the SoCs are powerful enough at that time.

However, by that time I'd probably be pining for a new ~11" iPad Pro with something like A16X or A18X.

The iPad mini 4 has 2GB of ram.

 

[EugW]

The iPad mini 4 has 2GB of ram.

Yes. I correctly listed 2 GB for the mini 4 in my table. I have removed the incorrect text in my post.

 

[Falhófnir]

I would be shocked to see the iPad Air 2 and iPad mini gone in iOS 13.

I expect all the 1 GB devices to be gone though.

Well, they have had their 5 versions (actually the mini 4 has only had 4 as it effectively launched a year late alongside the first Pro in 2015 (with iOS 9)). But I would be surprised if Apple sold a device well into the year it's support was ending? I seem to remember even the first gen mini was discontinued before it's final iOS version (9) was released... I don't know to what extent there would be too much of an issue with the A8/X SoC, particularly the X is on par with the A9 in the 2017 iPad. From what I hear Air 2s are still ticking along quite nicely.

 

[rui no onna]

Based partially on this, my prediction:

iPad Pro 10.5" - Last version of iOS is 15.x in 2022 (for ~5.25 years of support)
iPad (2018) - Last version of iOS is 15.x in 2022 (for ~4.5 years of support)
iPad Air (2019) - Last version of iOS is 16.x in 2023 (for ~4.5 years of support)

Given that app support usually lasts a good couple of years after the last iOS update, that means the iPad Pro 10.5" should be good with third party software for about 5 years from now (2024) and the iPad Air for about 6 years from now (2025), assuming the SoCs are powerful enough at that time.

However, by that time I'd probably be pining for a new ~11" iPad Pro with something like A16X or A18X.

Unless Apple decides to drop A12 due to a lack of chipset features or purely due to age, it's quite possible it may receive firmware updates past 2023. I just checked compatibility for High Sierra and oldest supported Mac models are late 2009.

Still kinda hard to imagine though since 5+ years is like forever in tech time. I know I own 10-year old desktops that perform perfectly well but still...

P.S. Geekbench 4 scores for that 10-year old desktop are around the same as Apple A9 in single-core and around 1.5x multi-core. Compared to A8X, it was 1.4x single-core and 1.5x multi-core.