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sparksd

macrumors G3
Jun 7, 2015
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Yes you do and should. It is actually a fairly simple calculation because in the end there are not that many variables included. Predicting your battery life in years, after collecting the data only 1-3 months, will allready get you a really precise answer. Itˋs not a difficult calculation at all.

You assume then that the utilization and charging patterns and natural battery degradation are all linear? As an engineer, I would challenge this answer as a really precise prediction.
 

darngooddesign

macrumors P6
Jul 4, 2007
18,366
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Atlanta, GA
Yikes! That is exactly my initial worry😂


Thatˋs more like it! Wonder how much better it could have been with even slightly sophisticated charging algorithms? 105%?

I mean, it is allmost ridiculous how easily it could be done.
With the same use there would be no difference between your seeing 102% or 105% because it would have the same degradation from new. It is impossible to have greater than 100% health.

 
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Digitalguy

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Apr 15, 2019
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With the same use there would be no difference between your seeing 102% or 105% because it would have the same degradation from new. It is impossible to have greater than 100% health.

Why do you insist with this "impossible...100%" when I said clearly that the design capacity is a nominal (read: artificial) level that Apple sets below the effective capacity, which is the one that is measured...
 
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Digitalguy

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You assume then that the utilization and charging patterns and natural battery degradation are all linear? As an engineer, I would challenge this answer as a really precise prediction.
True, degradation is definitely not linear, and battery capacity degrades faster over time, especially past certain thresholds. This does not mean that the other factors (high voltage and even worse too low voltage) do not accelerate the process, in addition to heat.
 
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sparksd

macrumors G3
Jun 7, 2015
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True, degradation is definitely not linear, and battery capacity degrades faster over time, especially past certain thresholds. This does not mean that the other factors (high voltage and even worse too low voltage) do not accelerate the process, in addition to heat.

Exactly. Why a data collection over a 1-3 month period will in no way give you a precise prediction.
 
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jumpingjackflash

macrumors regular
Original poster
Nov 13, 2016
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You assume then that the utilization and charging patterns and natural battery degradation are all linear? As an engineer, I would challenge this answer as a really precise prediction.
Ofcourse when those variables change on a timescale then the calculation changes also. But we would still have a really precise current prediction on the battery life expectancy. Li-ion battery tech is incredibly well known. It would not be a difficult calculation at all.

For example, We have now a mass produced M1 chip on the market that contains 16 billion transistors! Thats really incredible and mathematically/physically a far more difficult task than calculating some dumb battery life expectation. IMO
 

Digitalguy

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Apr 15, 2019
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Ofcourse when those variables change on a timescale then the calculation changes also. But we would still have a really precise current prediction on the battery life expectancy. Li-ion battery tech is incredibly well known. It would not be a difficult calculation at all.

For example, We have now a mass produced M1 chip on the market that contains 16 billion transistors! Thats really incredible and mathematically/physically a far more difficult task than calculating some dumb battery life expectation. IMO
It's very hard to be precise over short periods of time with battery health. Even with battery voltage constant, which in itself is not realistic with a mobile device like an iPad, there are too many factors impacting the other big variable, heat.
 

sparksd

macrumors G3
Jun 7, 2015
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Seattle WA
Ofcourse when those variables change on a timescale then the calculation changes also. But we would still have a really precise current prediction on the battery life expectancy. Li-ion battery tech is incredibly well known. It would not be a difficult calculation at all.

For example, We have now a mass produced M1 chip on the market that contains 16 billion transistors! Thats really incredible and mathematically/physically a far more difficult task than calculating some dumb battery life expectation. IMO

The problem remains that lithium battery degradation is non-linear and life prediction is anything but precise. It is a difficult calculation - read the literature on it:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1149/2.1271915jes

https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2021/cp/d1cp00359c

https://www.researchgate.net/figure...on rate of lithium,, battery aging tests (Fig.
 

jumpingjackflash

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Nov 13, 2016
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I know it is a non-linear degradation but I still refuse to believe that Apple is uncapable of calculating that. For example on the first Toyotas mass-produced Electric vehicle BZ4X:

”Toyota has guaranteed that the 71.4kWh lithium-ion battery unit will retain at least 70% of its capacity for up to 10 years or one million kilometers (620,000 miles) driven (while most manufacturers offer 8 years and 100-150,000 miles).”


How can Toyota make their quarantee and predictions up to ten (10) years or million km? And being a Toyota I bet they are pretty generous with those predictions. Think about the complexity of the conditions those batteries have to work with 150kW(!) fast-charging capability alone? Not to even mention the weather conditions and different driving habits.

I simply refuse to believe that making algorithms that predicts an iPad or iPhone battery life is that hard compared to many other things.
 
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sparksd

macrumors G3
Jun 7, 2015
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Seattle WA
I know it is a non-linear degradation but I still refuse to believe that Apple is uncapable of calculating that. For example on the first Toyotas mass-produced Electric vehicle BZ4X:

”Toyota has guaranteed that the 71.4kWh lithium-ion battery unit will retain at least 70% of its capacity for up to 10 years or one million kilometers (620,000 miles) driven (while most manufacturers offer 8 years and 100-150,000 miles).”


How can Toyota make their quarantee and predictions up to ten (10) years or million km? And being a Toyota I bet they are pretty generous with those predictions. Think about the complexity of the conditions those batteries have to work with 150kW(!) fast-charging capability alone? Not to even mention the weather conditions and different driving habits.

I simply refuse to believe that making algorithms that predicts an iPad or iPhone battery life is that hard compared to many other things.

I would hardly call Toyota's numbers a precise calculation. Why do you think Apple owes something similar? They have no need to.
 

jumpingjackflash

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Nov 13, 2016
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I would hardly call Toyota's numbers a precise calculation.
Really? Thatˋs a quarantee of ten years minimum. Not just a prediction but a quarantee. Thats pretty f#####g precise!

That quarantee is also based on a calculations which are far more complex than any iPad would ever require. And this is just a one example.
 

rui no onna

Contributor
Oct 25, 2013
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Really? Thatˋs a quarantee of ten years minimum. Not just a prediction but a quarantee. Thats pretty f#####g precise!

That quarantee is also based on a calculations which are far more complex than any iPad would ever require. And this is just a one example.

It's probably the opposite. Much higher battery capacities should allow for a greater margin of error.

Toyota doesn't have to worry much about the weight either whereas it's a major concern for the iPad. Customers are already criticizing the 10-hr battery life. If they limit "full" capacity to 80% instead of 100%, ergo probably more or less 8 hrs battery life, that would make complaints from even worse.

That said, a user-customizable optimized charging mode would be appreciated. On my ThinkPad (Lenovo Vantage), I have it set to the default 75-80%.

I do sorta optimized charging by way of Shortcuts/Automation + Smart Plugs.
 
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jumpingjackflash

macrumors regular
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Nov 13, 2016
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I would hardly call Toyota's numbers a precise calculation.
Sorry, I was wrong, itˋs not a 70%. In reality its closer to 90%.

”Toyota developed the 2023 bZ4X battery to retain 90% of its original life. The 70% is the target number, but the automaker thinks 90% is attainable.”


That just makes their precision on calculations even more incredible.
 

jumpingjackflash

macrumors regular
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Nov 13, 2016
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It's probably the opposite. Much higher battery capacities should allow for a greater margin of error.
What marging errors are you really talking about?

”Toyota developed the 2023 bZ4X battery to retain 90% of its original life. The 70% is the target number, but the automaker thinks 90% is attainable.”

Theres no ”marging errors” on 10 years/90% quarantee!
 

sparksd

macrumors G3
Jun 7, 2015
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Seattle WA
Sorry, I was wrong, itˋs not a 70%. In reality its closer to 90%.

”Toyota developed the 2023 bZ4X battery to retain 90% of its original life. The 70% is the target number, but the automaker thinks 90% is attainable.”


That just makes their precision on calculations even more incredible.

What exactly is it that you want Apple to provide you?
 

rui no onna

Contributor
Oct 25, 2013
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What marging errors are you really talking about?

”Toyota developed the 2023 bZ4X battery to retain 90% of its original life. The 70% is the target number, but the automaker thinks 90% is attainable.”

Theres no ”marging errors” on 10 years/90% quarantee!

Toyota thinks 90% is achievable but they’re only guaranteeing 70% for 10 years. Seems to me they’re allowing for a pretty wide margin of error.

Also, that Toyota electric vehicle has a 70+ KWh battery. The largest iPad battery is just like 0.06% of that. The full battery capacity of the iPad is pretty much just a rounding error on Toyota’s calculations.
 
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sparksd

macrumors G3
Jun 7, 2015
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Seattle WA
Toyota thinks 90% is achievable but they’re only guaranteeing 70% for 10 years. Seems to me they’re allowing for a pretty wide margin of error.

Also, that Toyota electric vehicle has a 70+ KWh battery. The largest iPad battery is just like 0.06% of that. The full battery capacity of the iPad is pretty much just a rounding error on Toyota’s calculations.

"Customers have to keep up with scheduled maintenance to ensure the battery operates at optimal levels." Wonder what that would be for an iPad.
 
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jumpingjackflash

macrumors regular
Original poster
Nov 13, 2016
192
102
Scandinavia
Toyota thinks 90% is achievable but they’re only guaranteeing 70% for 10 years. Seems to me they’re allowing for a pretty wide margin of error.

Also, that Toyota electric vehicle has a 70+ KWh battery. The largest iPad battery is just like 0.06% of that. The full battery capacity of the iPad is pretty much just a rounding error on Toyota’s calculations.
If you carefully rethink about it, their promise is very impressive.

Toyota is one of those very few companies left in the whole world that gives us this kind of promise and hope.

I deeply respect them for doing so in this day and age.
 
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sparksd

macrumors G3
Jun 7, 2015
9,996
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Seattle WA
If you carefully rethink about it, their promise is very impressive.

Toyota is one those very few companies left in the whole world that gives us this kind of promise and hope.

I deeply respect them for doing so in this day and age.
What changes do you specifically want to the current Apple warranty?
 

darngooddesign

macrumors P6
Jul 4, 2007
18,366
10,127
Atlanta, GA
”Toyota has guaranteed that the 71.4kWh lithium-ion battery unit will retain at least 70% of its capacity for up to 10 years or one million kilometers (620,000 miles) driven (while most manufacturers offer 8 years and 100-150,000 miles).”
Apple makes a similar battery guarantee for the first year of use.
 

rui no onna

Contributor
Oct 25, 2013
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If you carefully rethink about it, their promise is very impressive.

Toyota is one those very few companies left in the whole world that gives us this kind of promise and hope.

I deeply respect them for doing so in this day and age.

I looked up battery degradation on electric vehicles and it seems to me Toyota’s promise is better than other EVs but not by much in terms of years. The increase in mileage is quite notable, though.


In the meantime, battery degradation in today's battery electric cars is really nothing to concern yourself with. Automakers typically offer battery warranties for eight years or 100,000 miles on new cars. Plus, battery degradation is a very slow process and it is very likely that you will sell or trade your EV in long before loss of battery function becomes a problem. According to a recent survey, the average EV owner only notices a 2% battery decline after three years of driving and a 7% decline after six years on the road.


Apple guarantees iPads to retain 80% for 1 year and 1000 cycles.

I have a 2016 iPad Pro 9.7 at 87% after 494 cycles and 2017 iPad Pro 10.5 at 84% after 459 battery cycles. Both of these were kinda abused: 10+ hours usage per day for 1-2 years with frequent drain to 0% (usually during marathon reading sessions). Also, SoCal summers with occasionally broken air conditioner. I can still squeeze 6-8 hours onscreen time from these depending on display brightness and type of usage.

Mind, at 1% per year, that Toyota would lose ~0.7 KWh/year (it’s not going to be linear but let’s go with that for simplicity’s sake). That’s the equivalent of ~20 iPad Pro 11”.
 

jumpingjackflash

macrumors regular
Original poster
Nov 13, 2016
192
102
Scandinavia
I looked up battery degradation on electric vehicles and it seems to me Toyota’s promise is better than other EVs but not by much in terms of years. The increase in mileage is quite notable, though.
On mileage, Toyotas minimum quarantee is 620% better than average and 413% better than even Tesla. Thatˋs far more than just quite notable increase.

That is inspirational

Apple guarantees iPads to retain 80% for 1 year and 1000 cycles.
To be a little more precise, they say exactly:

”Your battery is designed to retain up to 80% of its original capacity at 1000 complete charge cycles.”


Firstly, I am a little confused about what that phrase even means? To me it could mean just about anything. But if I would have to guess it could be ”80% or above capacity, under 1000 complete cycles, in less than a year”. Could you open up that phrase if you happen to know?

Secondly, is that kind of warranty something they can truly be a proud of? Or should they happily give a longer warranty if they really can stand behind their product?

On a flagship products, only a 1 year nominal warranty is…awfull.
 

sparksd

macrumors G3
Jun 7, 2015
9,996
34,288
Seattle WA
On mileage, Toyotas minimum quarantee is 620% better than average and 413% better than even Tesla. Thatˋs far more than just quite notable increase.

That is inspirational


To be a little more precise, they say exactly:

”Your battery is designed to retain up to 80% of its original capacity at 1000 complete charge cycles.”


Firstly, I am a little confused about what that phrase even means? To me it could mean just about anything. But if I would have to guess it could be ”80% or above capacity, under 1000 complete cycles, in less than a year”. Could you open up that phrase if you happen to know?

Secondly, is that kind of warranty something they can truly be a proud of? Or should they happily give a longer warranty if they really can stand behind their product?

On a flagship products, only a 1 year nominal warranty is…awfull.

Samsung tablets - 1 year warranty

Canon cameras - 1 year warranty

Nikon cameras - 1 year warranty

Yeah, they're all awful ...
 
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