M1 Mac prices will drop by $100-200 when M2 Macs comes out by Nov 2021

[Hexley]

Right now the entry price of Mac desktops is $699 and laptops is $999.

I am forecasting that when the M2 comes out in Nov 2021 Apple will drop the entry price of the M1 desktops and laptops to as low as $499 and $799 respectively.

This is in the hopes of expanding market share from top 20% to top 30% of the global PC market.

Apple's been known to do this with the iPhone and iPad. Wouldnt be surprising if they did this with the Macs as well.

There is a pressing need to do this as they're doing in-house Mac chips that needs the added volume for economies of scale.

 

[Iustin]

And let's not forget that Intel is not expected to launch their 7 nm process until 2022. So we might see way more macs in a few years

 

[HatMine]

I highly doubt that they would sell an M1 and M2 MBA at the same time, with a $200 difference. I mean, look at the base iPad; they release a new one every year and really only change the SOC, while dropping the previous model. Keeping the old one around for cheaper would just decrease the sales of the newer model, and likely make them less money.

Additionally, when has Apple ever cared about the marketshare of the laptop market?

 

[nobackup]

I highly doubt that they would sell an M1 and M2 MBA at the same time, with a $200 difference. I mean, look at the base iPad; they release a new one every year and really only change the SOC, while dropping the previous model. Keeping the old one around for cheaper would just decrease the sales of the newer model, and likely make them less money.

Additionally, when has Apple ever cared about the marketshare of the laptop market?

Well that unless the next is a redesign. So we end up with a MacBook and the MacBook SE. Why not select the price get the design easy to manage the market

 

[leman]

Right now the entry price of Mac desktops is $699 and laptops is $999.

I am forecasting that when the M2 comes out in Nov 2021 Apple will drop the entry price of the M1 desktops and laptops to as low as $499 and $799 respectively.

This is in the hopes of expanding market share from top 20% to top 30% of the global PC market.

Apple's been known to do this with the iPhone and iPad. Wouldnt be surprising if they did this with the Macs as well.

There is a pressing need to do this as they're doing in-house Mac chips that needs the added bonus for economies of scale.

When M2 comes out, M1 is likely to be discontinued As to the rest, it boils down to whether Apple will introduce a “cheap” Mac.

I wouldn’t be so sure that Apple wants to significantly increase their market share. That also gets progressively more “expensive“, as you need to cater to more and more user groups. Apple isn’t likely to compromise on their vision.

 

[HatMine]

Well that unless the next is a redesign. So we end up with a MacBook and the MacBook SE. Why not select the price get the design easy to manage the market

The rumors, or at least the rumors from the reputable sources, say that the redesign/new features for the MBA are coming in 2022. Realistically, we’ll have an M3 by then. So, if an M2 MBA ever were to exist, it would be released next year without a redesign. To then keep the M1 MBA around with a price drop would be a very strange move.

 

[Hexley]

The rumors, or at least the rumors from the reputable sources, say that the redesign/new features for the MBA are coming in 2022. Realistically, we’ll have an M3 by then. So, if an M2 MBA ever were to exist, it would be released next year without a redesign. To then keep the M1 MBA around with a price drop would be a very strange move.

Current MBA body came out in 2018. Why redesign it as early as 2022?

iMac/iMac Pro and MBP 13" are more likely to get a redesign by 2022 as the current design dates to 2012 and 2016 respectively.

MBA may get a redesign after 2022 like say 2025?

 

[Bug-Creator]

It will be as it has always been.

Prices for 1 product will stay the same until it's replaced (at which point remaining stock of old version will be dumped to refurbished).

Highly doubt they plan to go iPhone style with the Mac where older versions stick around as low end considering that the Mac >5 distinct products at any given time.

 

[HatMine]

Current MBA body came out in 2018. Why redesign it as early as 2022?

iMac/iMac Pro and MBP 13" are more likely to get a redesign by 2022 as the current design dates to 2012 and 2016 respectively.

MBA may get a redesign after 2022 like say 2025?

I said redesign/new features, since it is unclear whether it will be redesigned. Read for yourself https://www.macrumors.com/2020/12/02/kuo-two-macbook-pros-2021-and-macbook-air-2022/

Since the MBA design is basically a copy paste of the MBP but with a wedge, and that design is from 2016, it makes sense to fresh it up alongside the MBP. Regardless, the point is that we should not expect a big upgrade of the MBA next year.

PS: I do not see why you gave me a “haha” reaction, I was not trying to be funny. I guess you are trying to be disrespectful.

 

[Hexley]

I said redesign/new features, since it is unclear whether it will be redesigned. Read for yourself https://www.macrumors.com/2020/12/02/kuo-two-macbook-pros-2021-and-macbook-air-2022/

Since the MBA design is basically a copy paste of the MBP but with a wedge, and that design is from 2016, it makes sense to fresh it up alongside the MBP. Regardless, the point is that we should not expect a big upgrade of the MBA next year.

PS: I do not see why you gave me a “haha” reaction, I was not trying to be funny. I guess you are trying to be disrespectful.

I am laughing at "reputable rumors" and there is a cost associated with creating new bodies.

Example would be the Butterfly Keyboard that only lasted about 4 years before being replaced. A tipping point occurred on its 3rd year where in it was costing more to keep it around than to replace it all together. That was a loss for Apple.

For a new body it may be designed a return of the 2019 Macbook. Or just a decoy to root out leaks. Like that 2018 iPad Pro will use an OLED display rumor. Its plausible enough that it may occur but would be a good way to ID leakers.

 

[Hexley]

Some 2019 global shipping numbers about Apple products

	Mac	iPad	iPhone
Millions of units shipped	18.35 out of 261	49.9 out of 144	198.1 out of 1,367
% of units shipped of the global market	7%	34.6%	14.5%
Entry price	$699/$999	$329	$399

As you can see above the iPhone and iPad are doing very well. Macs need a bit of work. I expect very good numbers for 2020 because of distance learning and working. 2021 will be a boon due to Apple Silicon.

But for Apple to hit ~52 million units shipped or ~20% all PCs they may need to reduce entry price by $100-200.

Apple is already able to offer M1 Macs at a $100-200 discount through educational pricing and 128GB storage size.

 

[senttoschool]

See my post about a Macbook SE: https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...a-macbook-se-and-at-what-price-point.2276759/

I predict $700 - $750 for a Macbook SE in 2022.

 

[macnmac]

thanks can you rub your crystal balls and tell me something useful like lotto numbers?

 

[Bug-Creator]

But for Apple to hit ~52 million units shipped or ~20% all PCs they may need to reduce entry price by $100-200.

With the Mac has always cared more about margins/profits then marketshare.


Also doubt that -100$ would make that much of a difference as a lot of "all PC shipped" are in segments Apple just doesn't compete.

- Gaming PCs (yeah M1 may do o.k. but if I wanted to play AAA games at max settings nothing Apple will matter for the foreseeable future)

- Ultracheap laptops (Walmart bargain bin), Apple would need to drop far more than 100$ to compete

- Business IT stuck in a world of Windows

 

[HatMine]

I am laughing at "reputable rumors" and there is a cost associated with creating new bodies.

Example would be the Butterfly Keyboard that only lasted about 4 years before being replaced. A tipping point occurred on its 3rd year where in it was costing more to keep it around than to replace it all together. That was a loss for Apple.

For a new body it may be designed a return of the 2019 Macbook. Or just a decoy to root out leaks. Like that 2018 iPad Pro will use an OLED display rumor. Its plausible enough that it may occur but would be a good way to ID leakers.

I guess you are out of the loop if you do not know about Kuo, who has a very good track record.

Anyway, as I have already said, I never claimed that we would get a new redesign in 2022. I said that a redesign/new features is rumored, and since Kuo is behind the rumors, they are likely true.

We shall see in a year who was right about the price cut, but I am confident that you are wrong.

 

[senttoschool]

When M2 comes out, M1 is likely to be discontinued As to the rest, it boils down to whether Apple will introduce a “cheap” Mac.

I wouldn’t be so sure that Apple wants to significantly increase their market share. That also gets progressively more “expensive“, as you need to cater to more and more user groups. Apple isn’t likely to compromise on their vision.

I believe Apple will introduce an "affordable" Mac. Macbook SE for $700 - $750 in 2022.

If Apple made an Intel Mac for $700, it would compromise their vision because cheap Intel chips are unbearably slow. But an M2-based Macbook SE might be faster than any laptop in the world. That's not compromising on Apple's vision. That's bringing Apple's vision to more people.

Apple has shown time and time again in recent years that they're after marketshare. They've been releasing SE products, cheaper versions of their products, and aggressively offering discounts to their premium products. It's quite clear that Apple wants more market share so they can upsell customers and sell them subscriptions and services.

 

[Hexley]

I guess you are out of the loop if you do not know about Kuo, who has a very good track record.

Anyway, as I have already said, I never claimed that we would get a new redesign in 2022. I said that a redesign/new features is rumored, and since Kuo is behind the rumors, they are likely true.

We shall see in a year who was right about the price cut, but I am confident that you are wrong.

Kuo is the most accurate Apple analyst among any Apple analyst but it does not mean his timing is incorrect sometimes

The redesign is believable but after 2022.

 

[nobackup]

The rumors, or at least the rumors from the reputable sources, say that the redesign/new features for the MBA are coming in 2022. Realistically, we’ll have an M3 by then. So, if an M2 MBA ever were to exist, it would be released next year without a redesign. To then keep the M1 MBA around with a price drop would be a very strange move.

They have done it so many times before. Why so strange. They kept the XR and 11 going to this day and back in the day they continued with continued with the previous MBA along side an updated (chipset). If it ain’t broken why fix it

 

[Hexley]

With the Mac has always cared more about margins/profits then marketshare.


Also doubt that -100$ would make that much of a difference as a lot of "all PC shipped" are in segments Apple just doesn't compete.

- Gaming PCs (yeah M1 may do o.k. but if I wanted to play AAA games at max settings nothing Apple will matter for the foreseeable future)

- Ultracheap laptops (Walmart bargain bin), Apple would need to drop far more than 100$ to compete

- Business IT stuck in a world of Windows

PC gaming isn't as big as people may want to think.

Worldwide Gaming Tracker Forecast by Product Category with Shipments, Market Share, and 2019-2023 CAGR (shipments in millions)

Product Category	2019 Shipments*	2019 Market Share*	2023 Shipments*	2023 Market Share*	2019 - 2023 CAGR*
Desktop	16.0	36.6%	15.9	29.1%	-0.2%
Monitor	7.8	17.9%	12.2	22.4%	11.8%
Notebook	19.9	45.5%	26.4	48.5%	7.4%
Totals	43.7	100.0%	54.5	100.0%	5.7%

Source: IDC Quarterly Gaming Tracker, December 12, 2019

Apple probably interested in $499 and higher desktops or $699 and higher laptops come late 2021.

Business IT is already BYOD especially for new companies that is not beholden to Microsoft-only tech.

 

[senttoschool]

With the Mac has always cared more about margins/profits then marketshare.


Also doubt that -100$ would make that much of a difference as a lot of "all PC shipped" are in segments Apple just doesn't compete.

- Gaming PCs (yeah M1 may do o.k. but if I wanted to play AAA games at max settings nothing Apple will matter for the foreseeable future)

- Ultracheap laptops (Walmart bargain bin), Apple would need to drop far more than 100$ to compete

- Business IT stuck in a world of Windows

You're right that $100 won't make much of a difference. That's why I predict $700 - $750 price for a Macbook SE in 2022.

At that price point, a lot of $600-$800 Costco Windows laptop buyers will switch to a Mac. It's highly likely that a $700 Macbook SE with an M2 SoC would be faster than most high end Windows laptops.

As for gaming, I wrote about it here: https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...le-of-playing-aaa-games-will-be-macs.2275962/

As for ultracheap bargain PCs, Apple will never go there. But Apple doesn't compete with ultra-cheap bargain phones either and they still own 50% of the smartphone market in the U.S.

As for businesses, Macs have been proven to offer more productivity and a lower total life-time cost of ownership than Windows. With Apple Silicon Macs, I expect this to be even more true. In addition, most enterprise/business software have moved to the cloud (browser). Any popular business software are on both Macs and Windows. It's much easier to move business users to Macs nowadays than in the 2000s or 2010s.

 

[HatMine]

Kuo is the most accurate Apple analyst among any Apple analyst but it does not mean his timing is incorrect sometimes

The redesign is believable but after 2022.

I mean yeah, you are of course free to disagree, but I reckon that Kuo's predictions seem like the safer bet given his track record (compared to some random forum member's predictions).

They have done it so many times before. Why so strange. They kept the XR and 11 going to this day and back in the day they continued with continued with the previous MBA along side an updated (chipset). If it ain’t broken why fix it

The XR and 11 have different designs, RAM-amounts, cameras, SOCs, and 4G speeds, so that example is not valid. If we look at Apple under Tim Cook, and we look at what they have done very recently with the iPads, it does not make sense for them to release an M2 MBA with nothing but a faster SOC, and then keep the M1 MBA around with a price cut.

 

[Hexley]

You're right that $100 won't make much of a difference. That's why I predict $700 - $750 price for a Macbook SE in 2022.

At that price point, a lot of $600-$800 Costco Windows laptop buyers will switch to a Mac. It's highly likely that a $700 Macbook SE with an M2 SoC would be faster than most high end Windows laptops.

As for gaming, I wrote about it here: https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...le-of-playing-aaa-games-will-be-macs.2275962/

As for ultracheap bargain PCs, Apple will never go there. But Apple doesn't compete with ultra-cheap bargain phones either and they still own 50% of the smartphone market in the U.S.

As for businesses, Macs have been proven to offer more productivity and a lower total life-time cost of ownership than Windows. With Apple Silicon Macs, I expect this to be even more true. In addition, most enterprise/business software have moved to the cloud (browser). Anything popular business software are on both Macs and Windows. It's much easier to move business users to Macs nowadays than in the 2000s or 2010s.

If you're after cut off of 50% of the laptop market then go for $700 laptops.

What I'm pointing out is top 30% which I believe the cut off would be either $799 or $899.

The US market having 1 out of 2 smartphones being iPhones is more about half the US market being a significant part of the top 20% of the global market. In the same way poor countries like the Philippines that has 1 out of 10 smartphones being iPhone sold within the last 5 years.

 

[Tech198]

Right now the entry price of Mac desktops is $699 and laptops is $999.

I am forecasting that when the M2 comes out in Nov 2021 Apple will drop the entry price of the M1 desktops and laptops to as low as $499 and $799 respectively.

This is in the hopes of expanding market share from top 20% to top 30% of the global PC market.

Apple's been known to do this with the iPhone and iPad. Wouldnt be surprising if they did this with the Macs as well.

There is a pressing need to do this as they're doing in-house Mac chips that needs the added volume for economies of scale.

Wait.. they may be an M2 ?

 

[senttoschool]

The XR and 11 have different designs, RAM-amounts, cameras, SOCs, and 4G speeds, so that example is not valid. If we look at Apple under Tim Cook, and we look at what they have done very recently with the iPads, it does not make sense for them to release an M2 MBA with nothing but a faster SOC, and then keep the M1 MBA around with a price cut.

I don't think Apple will keep the M1 Air around when the M2 Air releases. The most obvious reason why is that the M2 will be on the same 5nm process. So why allocate precious 5nm wafers to continue producing the M1 when you can produce an M2 at nearly identical cost?

Here are my 2022 lineup predictions:

• $750: Macbook SE 13" with the shape of the current Macbook Air using a Retina LCD screen, 8GB RAM, 256GB SSD, M2 SoC with fewer GPU cores, 15 hrs battery life, TouchID
• $1100: Macbook Air 14" using a Mini-LED screen, 8GB RAM (upgradeable to 16GB), 512GB SSD, M2 SoC with fewer GPU cores, 15 hrs battery life, TouchID
• $1500: Macbook Pro 14" using a Mini-LED screen, 16GB RAM (upgradeable to 32GB), 512GB SSD, M2 SoC with full GPU cores, 20 hrs battery life, FaceID
• $2600: Macbook Pro 16" using a Mini-LED screen, 16GB RAM (upgradeable to 64GB), 1TB SSD, M2X SoC, 25 hrs battery life, FaceID

I predict that Apple will get cheaper at the entry-level and more expensive at the Pro level. They've done this for iPhones and iPad. This is an excellent strategy because they make monstrous profits at the premium level while also taking a large market share with excellent value SE products.

 

[Bug-Creator]

The most obvious reason why is that the M2 will be on the same 5nm process.

Yup, but if yields are bad they might go even further with base MBAir having multiple GPU/CPU cores dead/disabled.