M1 Mac prices will drop by $100-200 when M2 Macs comes out by Nov 2021

[Hexley]

I mean yeah, you are of course free to disagree, but I reckon that Kuo's predictions seem like the safer bet given his track record (compared to some random forum member's predictions).


The XR and 11 have different designs, RAM-amounts, cameras, SOCs, and 4G speeds, so that example is not valid. If we look at Apple under Tim Cook, and we look at what they have done very recently with the iPads, it does not make sense for them to release an M2 MBA with nothing but a faster SOC, and then keep the M1 MBA around with a price cut.

Kuo's predicted the 2018 iPad Pro getting OLED. It's been 3 years... still no OLED.

I agree that MBA M1 will get a $100-200 price cut once the MBA M2 comes out at $999.

It's a great way to increase market share to cover the top 30% price range. So hopefully they can double their shipped units from 7% to 14%.

 

[senttoschool]

What I'm pointing out is top 30% which I believe the cut off would be either $799 or $899.

Apple has already released a $899 Macbook Air before. It didn't really impact things a lot. And Apple has already dropped the M1 Air to $899 on Blackfriday this year and it's the standard price for EDU.

Basically, a $800-$900 Macbook Air won't make that much of an impact. Will it help Apple achieve 25-30% in the U.S.? Possibly. The Apple Silicon Macs are that good.

But I think Apple is after 50% share so they will go as low as $700-$750.

 

[Tech198]

Since were playing on the prediction here, not likely Apple will just stop making M series, but they MIGHT slow down..

I mean they don't do CPU upgrades anymore because the M1 is plenty fast anyway... So you do get to a point, why have CPU upgrades for certain already 8-Core based Macs now when the reality is, what would they upgrade for and which app would use all that ?

Couldn't the same be true for M1 ? "Why make an M2,,, what other tings would you wanna see it in, and if it cme out, would anyone take advance of something you cannot do already with a super 8-core cpu?

Or is this more about profit now, and not really speed, only because we've gotten there already. ?

 

[Hexley]

Apple has already released a $899 Macbook Air before. It didn't really impact things a lot. And Apple has already dropped the M1 Air to $899 on Blackfriday this year and it's the standard price for EDU.

Basically, a $800-$900 Macbook Air won't make that much of an impact. Will it help Apple achieve 25-30% in the U.S.? Possibly. The Apple Silicon Macs are that good.

But I think Apple is after 50% share so they will go as low as $700-$750.

The $799 & $899 MBA are prices exclusive to the education market and Apple authorized resellers and not Apple.com's pricing for the general market/user.

 

[senttoschool]

The $799 & $899 MBA are prices exclusive to the education market and Apple authorized resellers and not Apple.com's pricing for the general market/user.

It doesn't matter. The M1 Air was on sale for $899 on Amazon. I'd argue that Amazon is for the general market/user.

What I'm trying to say is: Apple has already tried $899 Macbook Airs years ago. It helped Apple get higher market share but it didn't cause a boatload of Windows users to switch. I believe that Apple will have slightly more success at the $900 price point than before because Apple Silicon is so good.

But I believe Apple wants 50% share. Apple owns 50% of smartphone market in the U.S., 65% of tablets, and 55% of Smart Watches. It's my belief that Apple wants to get to that magical 50% for Macs as well. And they can most certainly get there with a $700-$750 Macbook SE.

 

[VermontsFinest]

Current MBA body came out in 2018. Why redesign it as early as 2022?

iMac/iMac Pro and MBP 13" are more likely to get a redesign by 2022 as the current design dates to 2012 and 2016 respectively.

MBA may get a redesign after 2022 like say 2025?

I think... your guess is as good as anyones. It is just a guess though, and personally I think you are going to be proven incorrect.

 

[HatMine]

Kuo's predicted the 2018 iPad Pro getting OLED. It's been 3 years... still no OLED.

I agree that MBA M1 will get a $100-200 price cut once the MBA M2 comes out at $999.

It's a great way to increase market share to cover the top 30% price range. So hopefully they can double their shipped units from 7% to 14%.

So? He still has a good track record. Everyone is wrong now and then, and maybe Apple really were planning to use OLED but decided against it somewhere down the line. We may never know.

Either way, I still think you are wrong.

 

[senttoschool]

Current MBA body came out in 2018. Why redesign it as early as 2022?

iMac/iMac Pro and MBP 13" are more likely to get a redesign by 2022 as the current design dates to 2012 and 2016 respectively.

MBA may get a redesign after 2022 like say 2025?

I predict that the Air will get an upgrade to a 14" Mini-LED screen with thinner bezels. The body will stay the same.

Meanwhile, Apple will reuse the 13" Air as the Macbook SE and sell it for $700-$750.

 

[senttoschool]

Additionally, when has Apple ever cared about the marketshare of the laptop market?

They do care. They care a lot.

The problem was that they couldn't make an affordable laptop that was good because decent Intel chips were expensive and cheap Intel chips were below Apple's minimum experience.

Apple doesn't have that issue anymore.

 

[Hexley]

It doesn't matter. The M1 Air was on sale for $899 on Amazon. I'd argue that Amazon is for the general market/user.

What I'm trying to say is: Apple has already tried $899 Macbook Airs years ago. It helped Apple get higher market share but it didn't cause a boatload of Windows users to switch. I believe that Apple will have slightly more success at the $900 price point than before because Apple Silicon is so good.

But I believe Apple wants 50% share. Apple owns 50% of smartphone market in the U.S., 65% of tablets, and 55% of Smart Watches. It's my belief that Apple wants to get to that magical 50% for Macs as well. And they can most certainly get there with a $700-$750 Macbook SE.

Does Amazon outsell Apple.com? Does Amazon get Apple products at the same time as Apple.com?

Google Shopping was able to offer the $2399 MBP 16" for $1,980. Does that represent Apple's MSRP?

Apple wants the top 20% or 30% of the global market. This translates to the 50%, 65% and 55% you mentioned.

Tim Cook and Steve Jobs practices the Pareto Principle.

 

[VermontsFinest]

They do care. They care a lot.

The problem was that they couldn't make an affordable laptop that was good because decent Intel chips were expensive and cheap Intel chips were below Apple's minimum experience.

Apple doesn't have that issue anymore.

Don't forget the current MBA goes for $899 right now direct from Apple through their education store.

 

[Hexley]

Don't forget the current MBA goes for $899 right now direct from Apple through their education store.

Which is only accessible to education clients

 

[VermontsFinest]

Which is only accessible to education clients

Well this just flat out isn't true at all. I think it's safe to say you lost your credibility.

I'll even direct-link you to the page where you can buy one right now

 

[HatMine]

They do care. They care a lot.

The problem was that they couldn't make an affordable laptop that was good because decent Intel chips were expensive and cheap Intel chips were below Apple's minimum experience.

Apple doesn't have that issue anymore.

Maybe you are right but I am still doubtful. I mean why did they not lower the price of the M1 MBP or M1 MBA over their Intel counterparts? To me, it feels like they want to stay at the prices they are currently at, while making more money (by making their own SOCs).

 

[Hexley]

Well this just flat out isn't true at all. I think it's safe to say you lost your credibility.

So any random single pensioner with a @gmai.com email address without any student grandchild can go to the K-12 store and order a $899 MBA?

 

[senttoschool]

Don't forget the current MBA goes for $899 right now direct from Apple through their education store.

It actually went on sale for $799 recently:

https://slickdeals.net/

Apple is clearly very aggressive with pricing. It should be quite obvious by now that Apple is gunning for PC marketshare.

I think a future $700-$750 Macbook SE is a given.

 

[Hexley]

Maybe you are right but I am still doubtful. I mean why did they not lower the price of the M1 MBP or M1 MBA over their Intel counterparts? To me, it feels like they want to stay at the prices they are currently at, while making more money (by making their own SOCs).

Laptops make up 80% of all PCs sold. Desktops make up 20% of all PCs sold.

Pushing a laptop is easier than a desktop.

 

[HatMine]

Laptops make up 80% of all PCs sold. Desktops make up 20% of all PCs sold.

Pushing a laptop is easier than a desktop.

That has nothing to do with what I wrote, though.

 

[Hexley]

It actually went on sale for $799 recently:

https://slickdeals.net/

Apple is clearly very aggressive with pricing. It should be quite obvious by now that Apple is gunning for PC marketshare.

I think a future $700-$750 Macbook SE is a given.

<facepalm>

That's not Apple.com's Educational Store.

That's a 3rd party Apple Authorized Reseller.

https://store. simplymac .com/products/macbook-air

 

[Hexley]

That has nothing to do with what I wrote, though.

Actually it does. Apple not giving a price cut on a popular product line when they do not need to. That's why they do not offer Black Friday price cuts on iPhones.

Desktops dont sell too well whether Mac or Windows so a price cut was meant to help drive sales.

 

[VermontsFinest]

So any random single pensioner with a @gmai.com email address without any student grandchild can go to the K-12 store and order a $899 MBA?

That is correct.

 

[HatMine]

Actually it does. Apple not giving a price cut on a popular product line when they do not need to.

Desktops dont sell too well whether Mac or Windows so a price cut was meant to help drive sales.

But then your whole prediction falls flat on its face? You said that Apple would sell the M1 MBA for $800 to increase the marketshare, i.e. the total sales. But now you are saying that they do not need to do that?

 

[senttoschool]

Maybe you are right but I am still doubtful. I mean why did they not lower the price of the M1 MBP or M1 MBA over their Intel counterparts? To me, it feels like they want to stay at the prices they are currently at, while making more money (by making their own SOCs).

Apple either doesn't or rarely drops prices for the same products.

What usually happens is that after a few years, Apple will release a cheap version using old manufacturing lines a few years later. Apple calls these the "SE" products.

I'm quite confident that a Macbook SE will come to fruition in 2022. Here are my predictions for 2022:

• $750: Macbook SE 13" with the shape of the current Macbook Air using a Retina LCD screen, 8GB RAM, 256GB SSD, M2 SoC with fewer GPU cores, 15 hrs battery life, TouchID
• $1100: Macbook Air 14" using a Mini-LED screen, 8GB RAM (upgradeable to 16GB), 512GB SSD, M2 SoC with fewer GPU cores, 15 hrs battery life, TouchID
• $1500: Macbook Pro 14" using a Mini-LED screen, 16GB RAM (upgradeable to 32GB), 512GB SSD, M2 SoC with full GPU cores, 20 hrs battery life, FaceID
• $2600: Macbook Pro 16" using a Mini-LED screen, 16GB RAM (upgradeable to 64GB), 1TB SSD, M2X SoC, 25 hrs battery life, FaceID

 

[senttoschool]

<facepalm>

That's not Apple.com's Educational Store.

That's a 3rd party Apple Authorized Reseller.

https://store. simplymac .com/products/macbook-air

I didn't say it was Apple's Educational Store.

<facepalm>

 

[HatMine]

Apple either doesn't or rarely drops prices for the same products.

What usually happens is that after a few years, Apple will release a cheap version using old manufacturing lines a few years later. Apple calls these the "SE" products.

I'm quite confident that a Macbook SE will come to fruition in 2022. Here are my predictions for 2022:

I know about the SE-line up, but we have only seen two iPhone SE:s and one Apple Watch SE at this time. But yes, maybe a MacBook SE would eventually come. I still feel, though, that it would have made sense for Apple to lower the price of their M1 MBA from the get-go if they really wanted that higher marketshare.