For most? No one purchasing an 18gb machine that is fine for their purposes today will be left in the dust in 6 years unless their needs materially change. And it will continue to be rare for those purchasing 8gb machines.
RAM needs really haven't gone up for years now for the majority of use cases.
- Browsers like Chrome and esp. Safari have gotten more efficient. And it's hard to make webpages even more showy than they are. Maybe if WASM really takes off like wildfire? Doesn't seem to be the case it will.
- Things like working w/ PDF and Word processing is basically the same.
- VM/container needs have flatlined - the whole hosting a microservices architecture locally has been a trend for many years now, if you need it, you need it. If anything, the trend is to revert to monoliths or fuller fat services. Docker on MacOS is much more efficient now.
If you're doing a heavy amount of video production or photo editing, yes, more RAM than you need right now may be beneficial as megapixel and frame counts rise.
If you're a dev getting into machine learning, having more RAM allows you to run or train larger models. But even the latest Max isn't competition for an older A100 that can be rented in the cloud for a couple bucks an hour.
If AAA gaming becomes more a thing but you probably need a Max which has more than any high end video card... but it's still not going to compete with even a 4070.
This is part of the reason why we still see Apple use 8gb as the base for what 5-6 years at least now. It's definitely not ideal and it's nuts they didn't bump it to 12gb, but it's also not going to lead to a situation where the machine will suddenly be unusable in 3 years or whatnot.
If anything the situation is much better with Apple silicon w/ high bandwidth buses and fast SSDs so paging is actually reasonable:
"Unless you are configuring your MacBook Pro with the
M1 Max chip, which starts with 32GB of memory, you likely do not need the $400 add-on. In real-world tests, the 32GB MacBook Pro is not significantly outperforming the 16GB model, even during intense workflows."
Apple's high-end 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro offers the M1 Pro chip with 16GB of RAM as standard, but you can upgrade to 32GB of RAM for...
www.macrumors.com