M2 MBA / MBP could be a disappointment

[MajorFubar]

It depends. During the evolution of the A-series in iPhone before the M1 came out there were several performance leaps of 50%+ in a single generation.

But they didn't feel 50% faster in real-world use. It was just numbers on a chart. Which is why I carefully qualified it by saying real-world differences. Last year I leapfrogged from an elderly iPhone 6S (A9 chip) to an SE2 (A13 Bionic) and honestly I can barely even tell the difference most of the time. Ok the camera is better, but in terms of launching and running apps it basically offers a broadly similar experience. I only bought it because the aftermarket battery in the 6S (fitted in 2018) was in the process of dying and I thought what the heck just buy a new phone you tight a--ed b-----d. In every day use it mostly feels like the same device.

 

[MauiPa]

hmmm, could be a disappointment, could be fantastic, could be - well I don't know, anything I suppose. Probably incremental upgrades with a faster chip. Yah, I'm going there, that is what it will be

 

[MauiPa]

It depends. During the evolution of the A-series in iPhone before the M1 came out there were several performance leaps of 50%+ in a single generation. It’s not that likely that it will happen again, most of the architectural low-hanging fruit has likely been used. And if you consider A14 to A15, not much happened.

But in order to keep up with Alder Lake I think we will need to see a 20% speed bump…

and a 200% increase in power - to keep up with alder Lake, you know. When alder Lake gets good enough to run at a low thermal and power envelope, then I'll be impressed. who wants a water-cooled laptop? Seriously, alder Lake is OK, throw more cores and at a chip and it pretty much should beat a chip with fewer cores, and then ramp up the power so you sound like you are way faster!

 

[AustinIllini]

And there is another Apple is doomed post

At some point the sun will consume the earth. Of course Apple is doomed. We're all doomed lol

 

[Bodhitree]

But they didn't feel 50% faster in real-world use. It was just numbers on a chart. Which is why I carefully qualified it by saying real-world differences. Last year I leapfrogged from an elderly iPhone 6S (A9 chip) to an SE2 (A13 Bionic) and honestly I can barely even tell the difference most of the time. Ok the camera is better, but in terms of launching and running apps it basically offers a broadly similar experience. I only bought it because the aftermarket battery in the 6S (fitted in 2018) was in the process of dying and I thought what the heck just buy a new phone you tight a--ed b-----d. In every day use it mostly feels like the same device.

Aha but if you’d gone from a 4 to a 6S you would definitely have felt the difference. iOS changed quite a bit in that time frame, some things started using more power. I recently went from a 7 to a 13 Pro and the thing I’m noticing the most is the way Face ID killed the home button.

 

[AustinIllini]

Jesus could come back and bring us all to his 1000 year kingdom and we won't need Macs.

Seems unlikely but might not be impossible.

 

[gdbleb]

At some point the sun will consume the earth. Of course Apple is doomed. We're all doomed lol

Well now I'll definitely take that "big bong rip" please.

Also, I love upcoming hardware speculation from folks running stuff that's over 5 years old.

 

[Xiao_Xi]

During the evolution of the A-series in iPhone before the M1 came out there were several performance leaps of 50%+ in a single generation.

Do you have an example in mind?

Apple moved from TSMC 45nm (Apple A5) to TSMC 32nm (Apple A6)

Apple A5 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Apple A6 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Bodhitree]

Do you have an example in mind?

From the graph you’re showing there, the A5 to A6 transition was more than a 50% speed bump, as was the A6 to the A7, and the A8 to the A9. A lot of those came with significant bumps in MHz.

 

[killawat]

The goals for A series chips, including power, thermals, performance, physical constraints are vastly different than what we saw for M series chips. Apple could be conservative and hold back performance for even better power gains. Or maybe the chip team will want to go all out and leapfrog the competition a second time even though they haven't caught up to the M1 yet. Thats why this time is the most exciting time for Mac users. We have zero clue what the M2 will look like and the possibilities are endless.

 

[gradi]

The goals for A series chips, including power, thermals, performance, physical constraints are vastly different than what we saw for M series chips. Apple could be conservative and hold back performance for even better power gains. Or maybe the chip team will want to go all out and leapfrog the competition a second time even though they haven't caught up to the M1 yet. Thats why this time is the most exciting time for Mac users. We have zero clue what the M2 will look like and the possibilities are endless.

That is why I am waiting until March 8th (rumored that there will be some new products) to decide what to get to replace the M1 iMac 16gb/512gb that I bought and returned recently. If nothing announced or nothing that interests me a lot then probably I will get a 14" M1 Pro Macbook Pro 16gb/512gb (base model).

 

[januarydrive7]

Aha but if you’d gone from a 4 to a 6S you would definitely have felt the difference. iOS changed quite a bit in that time frame, some things started using more power. I recently went from a 7 to a 13 Pro and the thing I’m noticing the most is the way Face ID killed the home button.

I'm possibly making this switch (7 to 13 pro) soon. Not much else to look forward to (screen/camera upgrades aside)?

 

[Technerd108]

I'm possibly making this switch (7 to 13 pro) soon. Not much else to look forward to (screen/camera upgrades aside)?

How about a 120hz refresh screen/pro models? 128gb base model? Fast a15 processor and 6gb ram? 2 day battery life! It is a pretty big upgrade and I came from an 11 pro. I think this is the best iPhone Apple ever made!

 

[Sydde]

… A5 to A6 transition was more than a 50% speed bump, as was the A6 to the A7 …

A6 to A7 was the initial move from 32-bit to 64-bit. There were massive performance gains to be had in moving to AArch64. Not on the chart is the gain from A10 to A11, when AArch32 was dropped out of the cores, but I suspect tie biggest gain there would have been die space and PPW.

 

[throAU]

I doubt it. Apple's charts will make it look amazing, based, as they will be, on certain specific metrics which will be ideally chosen to illustrate the increased power, but in reality there will be very little real-world difference. A one-generation increment rarely (maybe even never) returns that kind of real-world improvement in performance. The chasmic leap was a result of transition from Intel to M-series RISC. You won't see that again any time soon.

apple have been getting those gains year on year with a series reliably for a decade.

intel used to get those gains in previous decades.

 

[throAU]

Do you have an example in mind?

View attachment 1966674

Apple moved from TSMC 45nm (Apple A5) to TSMC 32nm (Apple A6)

Apple A5 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Apple A6 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

i especially like how you singled out single core without taking into account increased core counts and gpu performance, which for anyone who actually pushes for the better performance is more important. but even there you show a reliable 10% per gen without additional cores.

add 10-25 percent more cores and run them faster - this is what the m2 will likely be and that’s where my 25-50 percent bump comes from.

 

[LonestarOne]

With the inflation numbers these days, Apple might do something they never do ….. increase the price without a redesign.

And the performance difference between M1 and M2 won’t be noticeable anyway.

Shorter version: Performance increases won’t be noticeable to fashionistas who care only about design.

I agree.

 

[Analog Kid]

M2 MBA / MBP could be a disappointment

The M2 MBA could be self aware. It could be blue. It could be powered by fuel cells. It could be designed to return to the thrower with the right flick of the wrist.

I mean, there’s a lot of things it could be.

 

[LonestarOne]

The M2 MBA could be self aware. It could be blue.

It could be unemployed due to a surplus of graduates with business degrees.

 

[Bodhitree]

I'm possibly making this switch (7 to 13 pro) soon. Not much else to look forward to (screen/camera upgrades aside)?

The camera took some getting used to, using different lenses to take different pictures was a big deal and really influences how you think about photos. Quite a few more options too, and some old tricks like shooting portraits in Live and being able to adjust facial expressions afterwards don’t work so well because you can’t use Live with Portrait mode. But still a massive improvement.

The screen was also a big deal, Promotion and OLED and HDR content make viewing video’s a very different experience, animations are smoother. You really notice it to start with, but eventually you start taking it for granted.

The battery life is another big change. On the 7 with an old battery at 80% I could just about get through the day, on the 13 Pro I have a comfortable two days with my not-very-intense useage. Its very nice to not have to worry about recharging at the end of the day.

And the 13 Pro is significantly thicker and heavier, that also. And Face ID. And much better speakers. And a better microphone for calls.

 

[januarydrive7]

How about a 120hz refresh screen/pro models? 128gb base model? Fast a15 processor and 6gb ram? 2 day battery life! It is a pretty big upgrade and I came from an 11 pro. I think this is the best iPhone Apple ever made!

I said aside from screen — I have no 120hz screens right now, so I’m fine with ignorance as bliss. Also, my 7 is the 128gb model. The most important aspect you mention is likely the ram and cpu upgrades, as modern iOS is certainly more demanding than my 7 can comfortably handle. I’ve actually been considering going for a used 11 pro, as I don’t know if I’m sold with the return to the iPhone 5 style square edges. I dunno… as much as I’d like the latest and greatest, pragmatism typically wins over for me.

 

[januarydrive7]

The camera took some getting used to, using different lenses to take different pictures was a big deal and really influences how you think about photos. Quite a few more options too, and some old tricks like shooting portraits in Live and being able to adjust facial expressions afterwards don’t work so well because you can’t use Live with Portrait mode. But still a massive improvement.

The screen was also a big deal, Promotion and OLED and HDR content make viewing video’s a very different experience, animations are smoother. You really notice it to start with, but eventually you start taking it for granted.

The battery life is another big change. On the 7 with an old battery at 80% I could just about get through the day, on the 13 Pro I have a comfortable two days with my not-very-intense useage. Its very nice to not have to worry about recharging at the end of the day.

And the 13 Pro is significantly thicker and heavier, that also. And Face ID. And much better speakers. And a better microphone for calls.

Longer battery life is always welcome! I don’t care too much about screen and camera features these days, so not the biggest selling point for me. RE: Face ID, I’ve honestly been holding out with hope that an under-display Touch ID would return, but who knows if that will actually ever materialize.

 

[hagjohn]

The same thing people said about M1 but it has been a success. Honestly, I could careless about a redesign. What we have is great already.

 

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

This thread sure brings all the boys to the yard.

 

[darngooddesign]

This thread sure brings all the boys to the yard.

And they're like damn right it's better than yours; M2 is better than yours; not in multi but in single core.