M2 or M3, who is next to go?

[CWallace]

It's not good that Intel also is depending on Taiwan based company. The US presidential elections in November, and anything can happen. The Chinese "reunification" is still on the table. Why no company in part of the world outside China (or Taiwan) can make that kind of chip?

It is due to nobody being able to, or willing to, make that level of investment. Intel did for decades, but eventually it became too much for them when they were the only customer for their fabs.

The US government is investing billions to help get Intel back to that level and to get TSMC to "offshore" from Taiwan to the US for product going to US OEMs (like Apple).

 

[chmania]

The US government is investing billions to help get Intel back to that level and to get TSMC to "offshore" from Taiwan to the US for product going to US OEMs (like Apple).

TSMC's value will erode, if it goes "offshore." Outside Taiwan's jurisdiction, TSMC would come under unnecessary pressure from its clients and their governments. Being the only company that can make such chips, it'd be simply madness go offshore.

 

[CWallace]

TSMC's value will erode, if it goes "offshore." Outside Taiwan's jurisdiction, TSMC would come under unnecessary pressure from its clients and their governments. Being the only company that can make such chips, it'd be simply madness go offshore.

Well TSMC will keep their best stuff in Taiwan, but if China really does make a play for the country, not having advanced fabs outside of the island will ensure everyone has a bad time.

 

[chmania]

Well TSMC will keep their best stuff in Taiwan, but if China really does make a play for the country,

We don't really know that, do we? We don't know what connections TSMC has with Mainland China. After all, it has to transport the chips to the 10 or so Mainland Chinese factories that manufacture all Apple devices.

not having advanced fabs outside of the island will ensure everyone has a bad time.

That's true. Everyone except China. We say that China is the 2nd biggest economy in the world, but when we think of all the technical stuff they make, the world outside cannot live without, China could be the only largest economy in the world. Except for 11 very small countries, islands and Vatican, no major country is recognising Taiwan as a sovereign country, not even the US.

 

[JouniS]

It is due to nobody being able to, or willing to, make that level of investment. Intel did for decades, but eventually it became too much for them when they were the only customer for their fabs.

The world is just too small. There is not enough demand for high-end chips to create sufficient competition. Four companies are trying to compete, but two of them are having issues and one has not reached the state of the art yet.

This is sometimes called Moore's second law. The cost of a fab doubles every four years, or something like that. As with Moore's first law, the scaling has not been that fast recently. But it's still fast enough to deter companies. Even with the current AI boom, nobody actually wants high-end chips enough to justify risky long-term investments like that.