M4+ Chip Generation - Speculation Megathread [MERGED]

[DrWojtek]

It really is a silly thing some people won't let go of. They wishcast that Apple would do it, then decide that since Apple isn't doing it, that must mean there's some arcane technical limitation Apple can't figure out.

The truth is that it's absolutely possible, on a technical level, but unlike this faction of iPad users, Apple doesn't want to put full macOS on an iPad. So they don't.

I think the limitation is they can't make a nice seamless switch from iPadOS when no external keyboard attached to macOS when attached. And using macOS with touch is probably not very good.

 

[TigeRick]

I posted this in the Apple's Upcoming Macs Listed in New Report news thread, but it belongs here.

You can draw your own conclusions. I think Marko's source is off on J704, which seems sure to be M5 MacBook Pro 14" if the patterns hold, which is his whole premise. As you can see, I believe it will be Mac17,2. The "Mac" firmware identifiers (e.g., "Mac17,1") vary in ways that aren't really predictable, as many of you here know, but you get the idea.

As you can see, my prediction for the fifth generation leaves open the possibility that the iMac and the base Mini won't get M5 (the tilde ~ in front means it's not on Marko's list), but if they do, then those are likely to be the Apple silicon "J" identifiers for them (as far as I am aware, the "J" identifiers do not exist prior to Apple silicon for macOS).

Finally, take note -- the lede is buried here -- those Apple silicon "K" identifiers are the first of their kind. That's got to be something big, maybe the rumor about TSMC-SoIC is off by a generation, and it won't happen until M6 Pro/Max in 2026?

First generation

J273 = A12Z Mac mini
J274 = M1 Mac mini

J293 = M1 MacBook Pro 13"
J313 = M1 MacBook Air

J314s = M1 Pro MacBook Pro 14"
J314c = M1 Max MacBook Pro 14"

J316s = M1 Pro MacBook Pro 16"
J316c = M1 Max MacBook Pro 16"

J456 = M1 iMac (Two ports)
J457 = M1 iMac (Four ports)

J375c = Mac13,1 :: M1 Max Mac Studio
J375d = Mac13,2 :: M1 Ultra Mac Studio

Second generation

J413 = Mac14,2 :: M2 MacBook Air 13"
J415 = Mac14,15 :: M2 MacBook Air 15"

J473 = Mac14,3 :: M2 Mac mini
J474s = Mac14,12 :: M2 Pro Mac mini

J414s = Mac14,5 :: M2 Pro MacBook Pro 14"
J414c = Mac14,9 :: M2 Max MacBook Pro 14"

J416s = Mac14,6 :: M2 Pro MacBook Pro 16"
J416c = Mac14,10 :: M2 Max MacBook Pro 16"

J493 = Mac14,7 :: M2 MacBook Pro 13"

J180d = Mac14,8 :: M2 Ultra Mac Pro

J475c = Mac14,13 :: M2 Max Mac Studio
J475d = Mac14,14 :: M2 Ultra Mac Studio

Third generation

J504 = Mac15,3 :: M3 MacBook Pro 14"

J433 = Mac15,4 :: M3 iMac (Two ports)
J434 = Mac15,5 :: M3 iMac (Four ports)

J514s = Mac15,6 :: M3 Pro MacBook Pro 14"
J514c = Mac15,8 :: M3 Max (14/30) MacBook Pro 14"
J514m = Mac15,10 :: M3 Max (16/40) MacBook Pro 14"

J516s = Mac15,7 :: M3 Pro MacBook Pro 16"
J516c = Mac15,9 :: M3 Max (14/30) MacBook Pro 16"
J516m = Mac15,11 :: M3 Max (16/40) MacBook Pro 16"

J613 = Mac15,12 :: M3 MacBook Air 13"
J615 = Mac15,13 :: M3 MacBook Air 15"

J575d = Mac15,14 :: M3 Ultra Mac Studio

Fourth generation

J604 = Mac16,1 :: M4 MacBook Pro 14"

J623 = Mac16,2 :: M4 iMac (Two ports)
J624 = Mac16,3 :: M4 iMac (Four ports)

J614s = Mac16,8 :: M4 Pro MacBook Pro 14"
J614c = Mac16,6 :: M4 Max MacBook Pro 14"

J616s = Mac16,7 :: M4 Pro MacBook Pro 16"
J616c = Mac16,5 :: M4 Max MacBook Pro 16"

J575c = Mac16,9 :: M4 Max Mac Studio

J773g = Mac16,10 :: M4 Mac mini
J773s = Mac16,11 :: M4 Pro Mac mini

J713 = Mac16,12 :: M4 MacBook Air 13"
J715 = Mac16,13 :: M4 MacBook Air 15"

Fifth generation (projected)

J700 = Mac17,1 :: A18 Pro MacBook 12"
J704 = Mac 17,2 :: M5 MacBook Pro 14"

~J723 = Mac17,3 :: M5 iMac 24" (Two ports)
~J724 = Mac17,4 :: M5 iMac 24" (Four ports)

J714s = Mac17,5 :: M5 Pro MacBook Pro 14"
J714c = Mac17,7 :: M5 Max MacBook Pro 14"
J716s = Mac17,6 :: M5 Pro MacBook Pro 16"
J716c = Mac17,8 :: M5 Max MacBook Pro 16"

J775c = Mac17,9 :: M5 Max Mac Studio
J775d = Mac17,10 :: M5 Ultra Mac Studio

J813 = Mac17,11 :: M5 MacBook Air 13"
J815 = Mac17,12 :: M5 MacBook Air 15"

~J873g = Mac17,13 :: M5 Mac mini
J873s = Mac17,14 :: M5 Pro Mac mini

J833ct = Mac17,15 :: Mac Pro? iMac Pro?

Sixth generation (projected)

J804 = Mac 18,1 :: M6 MacBook Pro 14" (SoC)

K114s = Mac 18,5 :: M6 Pro MacBook Pro 14" (SoIC)
K114c = Mac 18,7 :: M6 Max MacBook Pro 14" (SoIC)
K116s = Mac 18,6 :: M6 Pro MacBook Pro 16" (SoIC)
K116c = Mac 18,8 :: M6 Max MacBook Pro 16" (SoIC)

Please update the list to include J581 and J582 models. Macrumor still don't get it: they thought it refers to two storage sizes....hoho. As I speculated it is referring to two display sizes: 11" and 13". Mark Gurman mention that low-cost iPad will get faster SoC, that would be A18. What SoC is rumored to powered 13-inch device again? Think guys...

And no mention of low-cost Macbook from Mark Gurman. Why?

If Apple is indeed launching only M5-iPad Pro by the end of the year; We might see M5-MBA earlier than MacBook Pro. Apple might delay M5 Pro and Max until WWDC 2026, again just my speculation with latest leaks.

 

[tenthousandthings]

Please update the list to include J581 and J582 models. Macrumor still don't get it: they thought it refers to two storage sizes....hoho. As I speculated it is referring to two display sizes: 11" and 13". Mark Gurman mention that low-cost iPad will get faster SoC, that would be A18. What SoC is rumored to powered 13-inch device again? Think guys...

And no mention of low-cost Macbook from Mark Gurman. Why?

If Apple is indeed launching only M5-iPad Pro by the end of the year; We might see M5-MBA earlier than MacBook Pro. Apple might delay M5 Pro and Max until WWDC 2026, again just my speculation with latest leaks.

Adding the iPads/iPhones to that list of Macs would be a lot of work. I'll let you know if I get around to it.

A18 Pro is the rumored SoC in a new 13" device, not A18.

 

[tenthousandthings]

Adding the iPads/iPhones to that list of Macs would be a lot of work. I'll let you know if I get around to it.

[NOTE: I've revised the Mac list in my earlier post to also include the Pro Display and Studio Display...]

Okay, thanks to AppleDB.dev, a list of the iPads since A12 was easy to compile.

One thing I wasn't aware of beforehand is the current system of Mac identifiers (which began with Mac13,1 and Mac13,2) is based on the iPad system. So Mac17,1 having A18 Pro and Mac 17,2 having M5 is not against the rules. Look at the iPad16 generation: it starts with A17 Pro, then gets M4, then (likely) A18. The iPad17 generation, in turn, will start with A18 Pro, then gets M5, and so on.

Thus, iPad17 and Mac17 are the same generation. Starting the Mac Studio out at Mac13 wasn't a happy accident. This was planned all along.

Transitional

A12X/A12Z

J317 = iPad8,1 :: A12X iPad Pro 11" WiFi
J317x = iPad8,2 :: A12X iPad Pro 11" WiFi (1 TB)
J318 = iPad8,3 :: A12X iPad Pro 11" WiFi + Cellular
J318x = iPad8,4 :: A12X iPad Pro 11" WiFi + Cellular (1 TB)

J320 = iPad8,5 :: A12X iPad Pro 12.9" WiFi
J320x = iPad8,6 :: A12X iPad Pro 12.9" WiFi (1 TB)
J321 = iPad8,7 :: A12X iPad Pro 12.9" WiFi + Cellular
J321x = iPad8,8 :: A12X iPad Pro 12.9" WiFi + Cellular (1 TB)

J417 = iPad8,9 :: A12Z iPad Pro 11" WiFi
J418 = iPad8,10 :: A12Z iPad Pro 11" WiFi + Cellular

J420 = iPad8,11 :: A12Z iPad Pro 12.9" WiFi
J421 = iPad8,12 :: A12Z iPad Pro 12.9" WiFi + Cellular

A12

J210 = iPad11,1 :: A12 iPad mini WiFi
J211 = iPad11,2 :: A12 iPad mini WiFi + Cellular

J217 = iPad11,3 :: A12 iPad Air WiFi
J218 = iPad11,4 :: A12 iPad Air WiFi + Cellular

J171a = iPad11,6 :: A12 iPad WiFi
J172a = iPad11,7 :: A12 iPad WiFi + Cellular

A13

J181 = iPad12,1 :: A13 iPad WiFi
J182 = iPad12,2 :: A13 iPad WiFi + Cellular

J327 = AppleDisplay2,1 :: Studio Display 27" (A13)

First generation

A14/M1

J307 = iPad13,1 :: A14 iPad Air WiFi
J308 = iPad13,2 :: A14 iPad Air WiFi + Cellular

J517 = iPad13,4 :: M1 iPad Pro 11" WiFi
J517x = iPad13,5 :: M1 iPad Pro 11" WiFi (1 or 2 TB)
J518 = iPad13,6 :: M1 iPad Pro 11" WiFi + Cellular
J518x = iPad13,7 :: M1 iPad Pro 11" WiFi + Cellular (1 or 2 TB)

J522 = iPad13,8 :: M1 iPad Pro 12.9" WiFi
J522x = iPad13,9 :: M1 iPad Pro 12.9" WiFi (1 or 2 TB)
J523 = iPad13,10 :: M1 iPad Pro 12.9" WiFi + Cellular
J523x = iPad13,11 :: M1 iPad Pro 12.9" WiFi + Cellular (1 or 2 TB)

J407 = iPad13,16 :: M1 iPad Air WiFi
J408 = iPad13,17 :: M1 iPad Air WiFi + Cellular

J271 = iPad13,18 :: A14 iPad WiFi
J272 = iPad13,19 :: A14 iPad WiFi + Cellular

Second generation

A15/M2

J310 = iPad14,1 :: A15 iPad mini WiFi
J311 = iPad14,2 :: A15 iPad mini WiFi + Cellular

J617 = iPad14,3 :: M2 iPad Pro 11" WiFi
J618 = iPad14,4 :: M2 iPad Pro 11" WiFi + Cellular

J620 = iPad14,5 :: M2 iPad Pro 12.9" WiFi
J621 = iPad14,6 :: M2 iPad Pro 12.9" WiFi + Cellular

J507 = iPad14,8 :: M2 iPad Air 11" WiFi
J508 = iPad14,9 :: M2 iPad Air 11" WiFi + Cellular

J537 = iPad14,10 :: M2 iPad Air 13" WiFi
J538 = iPad14,11 :: M2 iPad Air 13" WiFi + Cellular

Third generation

M3

J607 = iPad15,3 :: M3 iPad Air 11" WiFi
J608 = iPad15,4 :: M3 iPad Air 11" WiFi + Cellular

J637 = iPad15,5 :: M3 iPad Air 13" WiFi
J638 = iPad15,6 :: M3 iPad Air 13" WiFi + Cellular

A16

J481 = iPad15,7 :: A16 iPad WiFi
J482 = iPad15,8 :: A16 iPad WiFi + Cellular

~J427 = AppleDisplay3,1 :: Studio Display HDR 27" (A16, 75Hz)

Fourth generation

A17 Pro

J410 = iPad16,1 :: A17 Pro iPad mini WiFi
J411 = iPad16,2 :: A17 Pro iPad mini WiFi + Cellular

M4

J717 = iPad16,3 :: M4 iPad Pro 11" WiFi
J718 = iPad16,4 :: M4 iPad Pro 11" WiFi + Cellular

J720 = iPad16,5 :: M4 iPad Pro 13" WiFi
J721 = iPad16,6 :: M4 iPad Pro 13" WiFi + Cellular

A18 (projected)

~J581 = iPad16,7 :: A18 iPad WiFi
~J582 = iPad16,8 :: A18 iPad WiFi + Cellular

Fifth generation (projected)

A18 Pro (projected)

~J510 = iPad17,1 :: A18 Pro iPad mini WiFi
~J511 = iPad17,2 :: A18 Pro iPad mini WiFi + Cellular

M5 (projected)

~J817 = iPad17,3 :: M5 iPad Pro 11" WiFi
~J818 = iPad17,4 :: M5 iPad Pro 11" WiFi + Cellular

~J820 = iPad17,5 :: M5 iPad Pro 13" WiFi
~J821 = iPad17,6 :: M5 iPad Pro 13" WiFi + Cellular