I agree; there will be an Apple event VERY soon.
Mark my words.
Vista launches on Jan. 30, which is on a Tuesday and the week of the Super Bowl. If Apple wanted to steel the thunder from Vista -- and I'm not saying they should -- Jan. 30 would be a great day to do it.
Something like: A one-hour special event keynote.
* Steve takes the stage, talks about Vista, shows how it's basically Tiger but not as good.
* announces street date and pricing for Leopard, a new jaw-dropping feature that's not in Vista.
* announces iLife/iWork, lots of Cover Flow, more dot-mac stuff, available today.
* announces some iPod sales stats from the recent quarter.
* 500,000 Apple TV's shipping this week, orders above expectations.
* iTunes music, TV and movie downloads. Market share stats.
* TV and movie downloads available today for a half-dozen new countries.
* "American Idol" available today, tons of special features, live singles to be available the morning after the Tuesday performance shows.
* Fox is on board for movies, with 20 new catalog titles available today (including "X-Men," "Ice Age," etc.).
* New iPod lineup, storage bumps in the shuffle and nano, widescreen iPod replacing the white iPod, most of the features from the iPhone but lots more storage than the iPhone.
One More Thing...
* The Beatles, full catalog album catalog, video features, special Yellow Submarine iPod nano.
Personally, I'd rather see them stay away from Vista and do this later, effectively announcing The Beatles in the Super Bowl ad, saving everything else for later, and making something else the One More Thing.
Later this year...
Apple TV is a much bigger part of the strategy than anyone realizes at this point. It has the potential to spawn a recurring revenue GIANT of a subscription service, and the analysts love recurring revenue.
I don't expect to see an actual announcement of a subscription service until later this year, either at WWDC or as part of a refresh of the Apple TV in October for the Christmas market.
I have no idea what pricing would look like, but it will be competitive with cable, will include (nearly) live programming and Apple will finally cave to the studios and offer PPVs for $4.99 for new releases and $3.99 for catalog titles.
Also, I don't think a plasma display marketed as a TV is out of the question sometime this year, particularly as part of a compete display refresh. Two models. Competitively priced.