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Longplays

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Apple gimped the M2 generation laptops to fewer bigger NANDs chips ( and tossed bandwidth) to hit the same price points. I wouldn't hold my breath.

There is a NAND chip glut right now, but until $/GB prices look like they permanently going lower , Apple is not likely to move. ( Apple did make the MBA 13" and 15" prices a bit better. But SSD capacity didn't go up).
M2 users are not looking for any faster SSD speeds. They're more likely want larger storage sizes.
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
4,053
M1 Ultra > M2 Ultra took 15 months.

So it isn't unreasonable that by Q1 2025 a M3 Ultra/Extreme be out by then.

The 19.5 month cycle between M1 > M2 likely has to do with COVID impacting supply chain.

M1 Ultra's ship time likely also have COVID impacts on its ship date too. That was relatively late to replace the iMac large screen model. and the M2 Ultra using a relatively old fab process probably helped to speed it up.
I don't think that gap is a 'clean' reading at all.

And TSMC N3's 'technically not late , but expectations late" schedule is another hiccup that will echo into the next iteration.

Apple decided it best that they prioritize their money maker iPhone be least impacted by by China's lockdowns.

The A16 is on N4/N4P , the M2 is on N5/N5P ... same general TSMC N5 family , but they aren't tightly coupled in production. Those are two different production lines.




If the rumors are true about M3 coming out 1-2 months after September iPhone event rather than Q1 2024 then that could be the start of Mac chips aligning with iPhone's 12 month refresh cycle.

There is no rational technical reason to tag the Mac chips with the same marketing 'butt hurt' of hitting some completely arbitrary fixed in time deadline that the iPhones have. It is a horrible boat anchor. It just 'happens to work' for the iPhone because kicks off 'crazy' profits. Macs aren't going to do that. Macs are healthy profits, but not 'crazy' ones. Nor are there 'annual contract' service providers flogging Mac users to upgrade on a regular basis.

But , but the Windows PC market... again vastly larger market with at least two orders of magnitude more individual products to release and triple the number of SoC SKUs to go in them.

Apple's SoC is mainly a GPU. If look at the GPU market they are no where near a 12 month iteration cycle. Same issues for Apple if doing things right.

Maybe Apple can pull off close to 12 for the plain Mn SoC but as the die sizes get bigger and the number of 'hand me down" products can shift the 'n-1' SoC off to for extended life ... the less and less the economics work. The iPad Pro has done just fine without rigid every 12 month upgrades. Macs are really not different.


With how Apple sets up Mac chips it wouldnt cost them all that much to start collecting binned and unbinned M3 Ultra/Extreme from M3 Maxs.

Binned on faulty UltraFusion connectors? Because otherwise that doesn't make much sense at all.

The Ultra is time shifted from the "plain Max" laptops due to initial demand bubbles that lead to production(supply) versus demand mismatches. They are being tested and validated either way. And extremely likely don't need binning to fill the lessor categories at all. That is mainly to set up a pricing ladder to layer fatter profits on top. Not to get the proper number of working chips. ( yes they sell a relatively very small number of dies that couldn't make the upper cut. But the pricing here is that even those pay for themselves if sold 'cut down'. A sizable fraction of those sold 'binned' probably work. Just squeezing out even larger margins on aggregate sales. )


Mac Studio & Mac Pro cases are already standardized. I/O internal/external will hardly change in terms of mounting points and machined ports position the foreseeable future.

We'll see if Apple fixed the harmonic 'whine' issue with the Mac Studio that impacted some. If they haven't ( kind of a butterfly keyboard denial situation) then they'll need to fix it next iteration.
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
4,053
M2 users are not looking for any faster SSD speeds. They're more likely want larger storage sizes.

LOL. Many probalby are looking for something faster than the previous generation. This isn't about 'faster' . It is about not BACKSLIDING! the newer entry points were slower than the previous generation.

Apple gets to charge the the $400/TB rate to 'fix' the problem to get back to what would had at the entry point in the previous generation. The kneecaping was likely a COVID NAND supply issue. For a while there was no where near the glut there was now and Apple effectively shaved use by going smaller bandwidth to keep the price point the same. It was driven by what users were looking to pay; not the SSD speed they were looking for.

And Apple easily duping most folks walking into an Apple store off the street that didn't do their homework and expecting this years new MBA not to have gotten slower .... because who does that? Well Apple does in Scrooge McDuck mode. That's who.
 
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fuchsdh

macrumors 68020
Jun 19, 2014
2,028
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Why did Zombie get suspended again? :oops:

I don't think the 8TB storage limit is anything more than Apple not seeing a target audience for it yet. The audience for people who want to spend $2.2K on a BTO upgrade is pretty miniscule, let alone $3K or more for what Apple would charge. Even the "money is no object" tech journos and YouTubers don't ever seem to get more than 2 or 4TB.

We'll see if Apple fixed the harmonic 'whine' issue with the Mac Studio that impacted some. If they haven't ( kind of a butterfly keyboard denial situation) then they'll need to fix it next iteration.

6C's review suggests it doesn't have the whine any more. https://sixcolors.com/post/2023/06/m2-ultra-mac-studio-review-top-of-the-line/
 

fuchsdh

macrumors 68020
Jun 19, 2014
2,028
1,831
m1maverick is in timeout as well IIRC, TBH it feels like there's a lot of AS fans coming in to this forum for the first time, to poke our community with a stick while we're experiencing some pretty raw grief, and then getting all indignant at the strength of emotion they receive in return.

If it's just to stop them from bludgeoning discussions it's arguably for the best. If you can say it in one post, going across multiple threads to keep hammering the point is unlikely to be beneficial for actual discussion. Can always blog your frustrations rather than hammering people with them piecemeal.

I feel like these threads have long suffered from people making the same arguments ad nauseam.
 

iPadified

macrumors 68020
Apr 25, 2017
2,014
2,257
m1maverick is in timeout as well IIRC, TBH it feels like there's a lot of AS fans coming in to this forum for the first time, to poke our community with a stick while we're experiencing some pretty raw grief, and then getting all indignant at the strength of emotion they receive in return.
Your community? So you mean a wider discussion including AS and Apples current strategy is not accepted? When replies to “poking” includes pure arrogance and sometimes personal insults, perhaps a time out is needed to cool down the discussion climate.
 

mattspace

macrumors 68040
Jun 5, 2013
3,342
2,975
Australia
Your community? So you mean a wider discussion including AS and Apples current strategy is not accepted? When replies to “poking” includes pure arrogance and sometimes personal insults, perhaps a time out is needed to cool down the discussion climate.

when the form of the discussion basically comes down to "haha Intel's dead, move on, you shouldn't have spent money on it in the first place" etc, then no, why should that "discussion" be accepted.

The feigned ignorance "oh but why would you want more than 192GB of memory?", or "oh, but what do YOU need a better GPU for?" it's the same abusive "I'm just asking questions" crap straight out of the bully's handbook, and when people who've been screwed over by this situation lash out, all the tone police come in to take sides with passive-aggressors.

Sod that - there should be a separate specific AS Mac Pro forum, and anyone from here who wants to participate in discussion about AS issues, can participate there. In this forum, AS is just noise. There's no reason for an AS fan to want to post within an x86 Mac Pro forum, aside from a need to troll & rub folks' noses in being the "obsolete" platform.
 
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MisterAndrew

macrumors 68030
Sep 15, 2015
2,895
2,390
Portland, Ore.
Maybe this thread should be called Mac Pro (2024)? There’s no Mac Pro 8,1, so there won’t be a 9,1. I wonder if it’s possible to predict what the model identifier will be. It looks like the new naming convention began with the M1 Studios (Mac13,1 & Mac13,2). M2 versions are Mac14,13 & Mac14,14. Since the 2023 Mac Pro is Mac14,8 presumably the M3 version(s) will be Mac15,x.
 
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Mac3Duser

macrumors regular
Aug 26, 2021
183
139
I think I'll buy the mac pro 9.1 "m3 ultra" with 384gb of ram, hoping Apple lowers the price a bit.
$3000 just for the case, pci-e lanes and an oversized power supply seems a bit much to me.
My use: ML, AI, large format images on Adobe, 3D, Drawing and Painting softwares
Softwares: Adobe, Topaz, Blender, Unreal, Zbrush, etc.
My interest in the Mac Pro rather than the Mac Studio: not having wires everywhere and storages that disconnect: being able to put a lot of SSDs inside is essential to me.
 

MisterAndrew

macrumors 68030
Sep 15, 2015
2,895
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Portland, Ore.
what if ... no one buys it___
The thing about that is that 7,1 users aren't ready to upgrade yet and Apple knows that, so I'm not completely sure what buyers they are targeting with this one. Presumably 6,1 users who haven't upgraded to a 7,1 yet, but the price is so high and such a poor value compared to the Studio that it reduces the buyer pool to almost zilch. It's not realistic that Apple intended to convert PC workstation users over, since it's both slower and more constricted in modularity.

If Apple doesn't want to lose Intel Mac Pro users then they will have to make the next one much more appealing.
 
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ZombiePhysicist

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May 22, 2014
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Another coward review. No mention that an AMd 6900xt beats the machine in Metal gpu scores. That a an i9 beats it in cpu. That the pci lanes are gimped and basically slots run out of lanes after you put in just one 16lane card.

Disgusting. An absolute disservice hiding that from the community.
 
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ZombiePhysicist

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May 22, 2014
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In the mean time here is a Xeon system using blade cards:


1687457004666.jpeg

1687457025491.jpeg

1687457040835.jpeg
 

goMac

macrumors 604
Apr 15, 2004
7,663
1,694

Another coward review. No mention that an AMd 6900xt beats the machine in Metal gpu scores. That a an i9 beats it in cpu. That the pci lanes are gimped and basically slots run out of lanes after you put in just one 16lane card.

Disgusting. An absolute disservice hiding that from the community.
We're in a very odd place when the Max Tech review is the most informative.
 

DrEGPU

macrumors regular
Apr 17, 2020
192
82
I'm gonna bet that if they do add expansion cards in a new Mac Pro, they will be their own architecture (sort of like Afterburner cards). I just don't see them ever supporting third party GPUs again.

I think now is a good time to give up on that dream.
The AMD Instict accelerators are exceptionally powerful “GPU’s”. I put it in quotes, because they don’t have video out and devoted almost solely to massively-parallelized matrix multiplication operations. For some workflows, this is the way to go to get practical results. Yes, AS is very power efficient, but it is not powerful for some workloads. Hence, it would be nice to add that functionality/capability via pcie cards
 
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Yebubbleman

macrumors 603
May 20, 2010
6,024
2,616
Los Angeles, CA
In a world where Apple released the 8,1 (update 2023-06-21, model number is actually Mac14,8), the Mac 'Doh!. With no 3rd party GPU upgrades. With no upgradable RAM. With no upgradable CPUs...


View attachment 2213152


...Apple actually cared about Pros and Enthusiasts.... Let's play make believe...

All they need to do to turn this around are these 3 things:
1) Add support for GPUs
2) Add the ability to upgrade additional ram (and either extend the SOC ram or treat it like cache like we’ve seen elsewhere). And lets make memory be ECC.
3) Add the ability to replace/upgrade the SOC itself

And they can end the embarrassing 8,1 Mac 'Doh! and give us a real Mac Pro... WHAT IF they actually cared what you (pros/enthusiasts) think... What do you think it should be?
1) This is so out of the realm of possibility that even "playing make believe" is difficult. They've changed the rules when it comes to Mac system architecture (well beyond just the processor architecture); the 7,1 days are gone with Intel

2) A socket-able SoC is how that will happen. That's honestly the only realistic way it will be able to happen.

3) See 2)

Apple is not going away from their unified memory architecture. At best, they'll get to a point where there's always an Apple Silicon Mac Pro configuration for any possible Mac Pro use case. But, they won't change the system architecture from how it is now. They're confident in it and committed, with the sales numbers to back it up.
 

ZombiePhysicist

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May 22, 2014
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1) This is so out of the realm of possibility that even "playing make believe" is difficult. They've changed the rules when it comes to Mac system architecture (well beyond just the processor architecture); the 7,1 days are gone with Intel

2) A socket-able SoC is how that will happen. That's honestly the only realistic way it will be able to happen.

3) See 2)

Apple is not going away from their unified memory architecture. At best, they'll get to a point where there's always an Apple Silicon Mac Pro configuration for any possible Mac Pro use case. But, they won't change the system architecture from how it is now. They're confident in it and committed, with the sales numbers to back it up.

Have you not seen the Xeon blades I just posted above? Also, a while back, we posted a Xeon system using SoC with regular memory and the SoC memory could be used in conjunction with the regular memory or as a cache for it. I'll try to find that and repost it. So apple does not have to go away form it, they just have to copycat what's already been done on the intel side of things.
 

Yebubbleman

macrumors 603
May 20, 2010
6,024
2,616
Los Angeles, CA
Have you not seen the Xeon blades I just posted above? Also, a while back, we posted a Xeon system using SoC with regular memory and the SoC memory could be used in conjunction with the regular memory or as a cache for it. I'll try to find that and repost it. So apple does not have to go away form it, they just have to copycat what's already been done on the intel side of things.
Apple is not interested in making blades. Nor are they really interested in doing anything to combat Xeon workstations other than to be faster at the specific workloads that they're optimizing for (clearly only a subset of what one could do with a fully maxed out 2019 Mac Pro).
 

ZombiePhysicist

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May 22, 2014
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Apple is not interested in making blades. Nor are they really interested in doing anything to combat Xeon workstations other than to be faster at the specific workloads that they're optimizing for (clearly only a subset of what one could do with a fully maxed out 2019 Mac Pro).

Were privy to high level talks where they told you what they are interested in? Did you get some report where they shared what they are interested in? Or did you somehow mind read apple to know what they are interested in? Or it's just your speculation. Because I recall speculation exactly like this that proved wrong during the all apology days of the trashcan that were proven completely false.
 

Yebubbleman

macrumors 603
May 20, 2010
6,024
2,616
Los Angeles, CA
Were privy to high level talks where they told you what they are interested in? Did you get some report where they shared what they are interested in? Or did you somehow mind read apple to know what they are interested in? Or it's just your speculation. Because I recall speculation exactly like this that proved wrong during the all apology days of the trashcan that were proven completely false.
Go watch keynotes where Apple talks about the Xserve. Then note the time period in which the Xserve was discontinued (right around the same time that datacenters were moving from a one OS instance per physical machine model to a several virtualized OS instances per physical machine model). Then note how both the 2019 and 2023 Mac Pro come in a rack-mount configuration that is not optimized for datacenter use whatsoever. Then tell me that Apple has an actual interest in competing in this space. You won't because it's obvious that they do not care about this market segment.
 

ZombiePhysicist

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May 22, 2014
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Go watch keynotes where Apple talks about the Xserve. Then note the time period in which the Xserve was discontinued (right around the same time that datacenters were moving from a one OS instance per physical machine model to a several virtualized OS instances per physical machine model). Then note how both the 2019 and 2023 Mac Pro come in a rack-mount configuration that is not optimized for datacenter use whatsoever. Then tell me that Apple has an actual interest in competing in this space. You won't because it's obvious that they do not care about this market segment.
So thats a no then. Thanks for clarifying.
 
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