I am thinking a more sensible alternative is to improve the IPC efficiency of the SoC, say the M3 will get 3nm as expected, then we can see significant efficiency improvements in M3 Max, and that's without Apple sharpening its overall design and/or core layout. So we will get a pretty meaningful performance already within the same thermal envelop of the 16" chassis. The 16" is already very close to the previous 17" MBPs, it is very hard to imagine Apple creating anything bigger since it will just be unwieldy to still qualify as a laptop (AKA gaming "laptops"). And without beefing up the chassis like that it just will be hard to lose all the heat without the TDP budget, even if the power supply can support >100W continuously. There's also the 100Wh battery limit in mind, again Apple is not likely to sacrifice battery life on their laptops.
Based on Apple's prevailing product refresh cycle the 1st 3nm M3 will be out 11 months from now by January 2024.
3nm M3 Max will then be released by end of that year. This assumes Apple holds to their M1 to M2 product refresh timeline.
This will leave Intel unchallenged for nearly 2 years with the only 24-core laptop chip that requires a 330W charger. Apple will release their M2 Ultra 24-core laptop chip as late as this June for the 2023 Mac Studio that
will consume ~140W and use a
240W charger. Apple wins in performance per watt, power consumption, battery life and even raw performance.
I'm not proposing Apple make a MBP 17" or 18" to accommodate the thermals of a 5nm M2 Ultra. Many do not understand why the Mac Studio has such a beefy HSF. It is because of the requirement that all Mac desktops be
silent PCs. The M2 Max/Ultra could actually be placed into Mac mini but it will be loud like a typical PC.
If the
2019 MBP 16" Core i9 14nm that has an enclosure that was lesser than the year 2022 model was acceptable to buyers then what more a M2 Ultra SKU in a more thermally thought out design that runs less hot today?
MBP 16" M2 Max 5nm is rated for
up to 22 hours battery. Seeming a M2 Ultra are two M2 Max dies then would up to 11 hours battery good enough at a worst case scenario?
If 2014-2019 MBP 15"/16" Core i7/i9 sold well even when they throttled and had less than 11 hours battery then why not a 2023 MBP 16" M2 Ultra 24-core that will showcase Apple Silicon tech?
People buying into this possibly $5.5k laptop will accept its shortcomings as they know what they are buying into.
Mobile workstations are known to be built thick and heavy and run hot and short. By comparison a 2023 MBP 16" M2 Ultra will run longer and cooler relative to it without the weight or bulk.
PC people accept these limitations but any improvement is an improvement even if it is the best crud.
Only reason this will not occur is if the yield of M2 Ultra chips are insufficient enough to support both the Mac Studio & MBP 16".