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I wouldn't bet the farm on a new mac pro. At least what everyone is thinking a mac pro will be. Apple's version of a new mac pro will shock everyone.

You're probably right.

And yet, I'm so hesitant to buy a new (2012) model when the MacRumors Buyers Guide is glowing red.

I mean seriously, it's really hard. My current MacPro has been a champ. It's 7 years old, but now it takes 20 minutes to boot up (even with multiple wipes and all the memory it can take).
The USB ports are dying on it (I've got 2 remaining working ones, that flicker...)

I'm just afraid that if I buy one now, they'll release a new one the next month and I'll kick myself for not waiting.
 
No, and not in June or July either. If it's going to happen it's going to be in the fall like Tim Cook said last year. We are going to have to twist in the wind for a few more months.
 
No, and not in June or July either. If it's going to happen it's going to be in the fall like Tim Cook said last year.

Tim Cook never said Fall. He said in 2013.

The warping of what Cook said into Fall by most 3rd parties to the conversation has largely been to retrofit Intel's Xeon E5 v2 ( Ivy Bridge ) Q3 launch into a motivation as to why the Mac Pro "had to" wait till the second half of 2013.

E5 v2 doesn't launch until Q3 ( probably around August, although tech specs will be leaking like a sieve well before then ).

The open question is whether Apple is going to follow that natural evolutionary path. If they don't they could launch something sooner. If they do then May-July is a 'dead spot' of 2013 where they won't. Going to a Xeon E5 v1 ( Sandy Bridge) a couple of 1-2 months before the launch of E5 v2 doesn't make any sense at all. If done back in Feb ( and avoided EU Market withdrawal and 5 months of customers dangling in the wind), then that too would have made sense. But they didn't.

Frankly the rumor of April-May launch never made any sense at all. ( again more "Apple will launch for NAB, because NAB folks are special" motivated that based on real "is it ready" issues. )
 
Tim Cook never said Fall. He said in 2013.

The warping of what Cook said into Fall by most 3rd parties to the conversation has largely been to retrofit Intel's Xeon E5 v2 ( Ivy Bridge ) Q3 launch into a motivation as to why the Mac Pro "had to" wait till the second half of 2013.

E5 v2 doesn't launch until Q3 ( probably around August, although tech specs will be leaking like a sieve well before then ).

The open question is whether Apple is going to follow that natural evolutionary path. If they don't they could launch something sooner. If they do then May-July is a 'dead spot' of 2013 where they won't. Going to a Xeon E5 v1 ( Sandy Bridge) a couple of 1-2 months before the launch of E5 v2 doesn't make any sense at all. If done back in Feb ( and avoided EU Market withdrawal and 5 months of customers dangling in the wind), then that too would have made sense. But they didn't.

Frankly the rumor of April-May launch never made any sense at all. ( again more "Apple will launch for NAB, because NAB folks are special" motivated that based on real "is it ready" issues. )

Tim Cook responded right after the WWDC keynote to an emailer regarding the Mac Pro by saying: "Although we didn’t have a chance to talk about a new Mac Pro at today’s event, don’t worry as we’re working on something really great for later next year."

Technically that could mean any time in 2013. It just feels like the second half of 2013 ;) And with the way Apple has handled the Mac Pro the earliest would seem to be the fall. But you are right, Tim did not specify the fall.
 
And with the way Apple has handled the Mac Pro the earliest would seem to be the fall. But you are right, Tim did not specify the fall.

On the other hand they had to know they'd be doing damage to the long term viability to the Mac Pro by missing getting something out to avoid the EU market withdrawal. That blunder and this product evolutionary bubble is going to follow them around for years.

But it increasing looks like the Mac Pro R&D was completely dead by mid 2011. If restarting from almost scratch in early 2012, it probably would take until almost Fall 2013 to get something out the door if doing a better higher end workstation.

Back in 2012 both paths were about as likely as the other given the information being leaked/rumored/etc.


Apple may nuke the high x86 core count ( > 4 core) end of the market though and come with something sooner. I doubt that will simply be called a 'Mac Pro' though.
 
I'm sure that we are giving this subject way more thought than Apple is.
 
Tim Cook responded right after the WWDC keynote to an emailer regarding the Mac Pro by saying: "Although we didn’t have a chance to talk about a new Mac Pro at today’s event, don’t worry as we’re working on something really great for later next year."

Assuming Tim Cook was being reasonably precise in his speech, and you can be sure that the note was carefully vetted, "later" can only mean after the middle of the year. Given what is being said about the processor release schedule, it would be reasonable to assume that the Mac Pro will only come out when the newest processor is available. As I understand it, Intel has on occasion given Apple priority on processor releases, so it just might be possible it can happen again, which means August-September at the earliest. In any event, Tim Cook has promised something "really great", and if it is as good as the Mac Pros to date, then it is worth the wait.
 
Assuming Tim Cook was being reasonably precise in his speech, and you can be sure that the note was carefully vetted, "later" can only mean after the middle of the year. Given what is being said about the processor release schedule, it would be reasonable to assume that the Mac Pro will only come out when the newest processor is available. As I understand it, Intel has on occasion given Apple priority on processor releases, so it just might be possible it can happen again, which means August-September at the earliest. In any event, Tim Cook has promised something "really great", and if it is as good as the Mac Pros to date, then it is worth the wait.

My one big question.... how do you make a Mac Pro "something really great?"
A Mac Pro is a Mac Pro. It's not going to be an eight Titan super computer.
For me the only thing that would make a Mac Pro "something really great" is if it could just plug and play PC video cards; i.e., PC video cards that run under OS X and Windows (Bootcamp) exactly like they do in a PC without flashing.
Yeah, yeah, I know, never happen. I don't think a something really great Mac Pro is going to happen either.
 
Don't think xeons will be used in the next so called mac pro. With apple migrating OS X more into iOS, your going to see a mulicore ARM based mac pro if one does appear. Those processors have already made its way to 64 bit. Low power multicore arm processors will be the new chips used but won't happen until apple completes the transformation of OS X. Face it folks, the computers we know are transforming to tablets and phones. Xeon processors keep getting more expensive. Getting out of the reach of most. And the push for low power everything grows every day. Not far fetched for apple to do this.
 
Apple may nuke the high x86 core count ( > 4 core) end of the market though and come with something sooner. I doubt that will simply be called a 'Mac Pro' though.

Somehow I doubt that would provide enough to maintain a product line following their current pricing model.
 
The new Mac Pro will be announced alongside the G5 Powerbook and BigFoot. Next Tuesday...
 
Don't think xeons will be used in the next so called mac pro. With apple migrating OS X more into iOS, your going to see a mulicore ARM based mac pro if one does appear. Those processors have already made its way to 64 bit. Low power multicore arm processors will be the new chips used but won't happen until apple completes the transformation of OS X. Face it folks, the computers we know are transforming to tablets and phones. Xeon processors keep getting more expensive. Getting out of the reach of most. And the push for low power everything grows every day. Not far fetched for apple to do this.

Please tell me you aren't trying to be serious.
 
Somehow I doubt that would provide enough to maintain a product line following their current pricing model.

There is nothing that says the pricing model has to stay constant. It can work if add another zone below (or resurrect one they have used in the past in Power Mac era. ) . It depends upon how many folks are in the $3,500 and up zones. Let's say Mac Pro sales break down is something like :

2,499-2,999 45%
3,000-4,999 35%
5,000-5,999 15%
6000+ 5 %


If Apple switched to Xeon E3 and started off at $1899-1999 they'd add a new zone more targeted at the < 4 core crowd. For example, the $1899-2,499 represented about 35% they aren't that far off the old numbers. If that 1899-3000 market is growing at a faster rate the gap will get filled in a couple of years. If the 1,899-2,499 market is just as big as the 2,499-2999 one there is very little gap between old and new if drop the top end. Lower prices --> higher likely demand. It doesn't have to be the exact same set of people; just total number of product buyers.

Frankly, the "core count" game can filled in with GPGPU cores more cost effectively. There is a super high end performance gap but the workloads the old 4000-5000 workstations can be done if just switch which cores are doing the bulk of the floating point work.

Will there be a very high end gap for x86 centric that Apple doesn't fill? Sure, but it would be just one of many PC market products they don't sell.
 
Please tell me you aren't trying to be serious.

Serious about trying to invent a rational to explain/justify the premise that Apple is trying to completely merge iOS and OS X. They aren't and probably won't.



With apple migrating OS X more into iOS,

Tail wagging the dog. The problem is most of the rest of this isn't true.

Those processors have already made its way to 64 bit.

Nope. ARM A15 (and the A7 derivatives ) still have 32-bit address spaces. They can address more than 32-bits of memory but any one instance only get 32-bits. It is good for running multiple 32-bit OS images on virtual machines. For single processes that need to address a large ( > 4GB ) address space it is a complete bust.

Low power multicore arm processors will be the new chips used

Intel is on a rabid better power management kick too. In fact that is one of the primary focuses of Haswell. There is no huge gap that ARM 15 has over some subset of Intel's offering at this point in the "plugged in" normal operations. Some feature phones sure. But that is primarily because ARM throws relatively performance out the window.


but won't happen until apple completes the transformation of OS X.

iOS and OS X are going to integrate well. But the hand waving about the core objective to do a complete merge is just that... hand waving.


Face it folks, the computers we know are transforming to tablets and phones.

Not really. There are going to be more folks who normally use tablets than the older legacy PC OS offerings. What is more true is that the workloads for most aren't changing. If a more affordable, smaller computer does the core subset of what users want to do they'll move "down" on the next iteration. That isn't 'new'. That has been in effect for almost 50 years.

Xeon processors keep getting more expensive.

Horse manure.

First, Xeon processors cost just about as much as Intel's Core i processors. High end Core i7's are priced the same as Xeon E5 1600s. Xeon E3 line up with mainstream Core i5's and i7's of similar specs. Xeon are the root cause of Mac Pro pricing drift over time is pure misdirection and Apples-to-Oranges comparisons not grounded in facts and/or comparisons of an Apples-to-Apples nature.


Second, "processors" aren't really just processors anymore. memory management, high speed PCI-e lane management , GPU , voltage regulation , etc. are all being weaved into the "CPU" package. There is some price creep in Intel's offerings but there is also more in the component you are buying ( and less to buy to complete a logicboard layout).


Not far fetched for apple to do this.

It is pretty far fetched. Apple just finished a transition to a CPU architecture. Rosetta is retired. There is little to no good reason to fire up that overhead of split system and application development and testing again.

Unless Apple is looking to throw Mac performance into the relative crapper they'll be on x86 for 2-3 more generations. Intel could screw up in the next 2-3 years but so far they are exactly on track to fend of ARM incursions into what has classical been Intel (and AMD) space.
 
There is nothing that says the pricing model has to stay constant. It can work if add another zone below (or resurrect one they have used in the past in Power Mac era. ) . It depends upon how many folks are in the $3,500 and up zones. Let's say Mac Pro sales break down is something like :

2,499-2,999 45%
3,000-4,999 35%
5,000-5,999 15%
6000+ 5 %


If Apple switched to Xeon E3 and started off at $1899-1999 they'd add a new zone more targeted at the < 4 core crowd. For example, the $1899-2,499 represented about 35% they aren't that far off the old numbers. If that 1899-3000 market is growing at a faster rate the gap will get filled in a couple of years. If the 1,899-2,499 market is just as big as the 2,499-2999 one there is very little gap between old and new if drop the top end. Lower prices --> higher likely demand. It doesn't have to be the exact same set of people; just total number of product buyers.

It depends on many things. As you've stated before going to a much lower bandwidth solution throws many solutions under the bus. I'm also not convinced that Apple intends to go the other direction with pricing, seeing as the Mac Pro saw price increases at its relative plateaus in 2009, 2010, and 2012. The 2012 brought the starting dual configuration up $300 more, although the W3680 is arguably slightly more expensive than the prior $3k price point cpu option.

Frankly, the "core count" game can filled in with GPGPU cores more cost effectively. There is a super high end performance gap but the workloads the old 4000-5000 workstations can be done if just switch which cores are doing the bulk of the floating point work.

Will there be a very high end gap for x86 centric that Apple doesn't fill? Sure, but it would be just one of many PC market products they don't sell.

I've been expecting higher proliferation of GPGPU for years. In some areas such as rendering, I think video ram has hindered its mainstream adoption to a degree. There are several gpu based renderers, but it's possible to overload them with texture data. Beyond that I suspect Apple will market solutions like the 680MX as good enough to fill that gap. It's not the fastest solution available, but Apple has often been somewhat limited on gpu options. If you needed the absolute bleeding edge in that regard, it already precluded a Mac.
 
Serious about trying to invent a rational to explain/justify the premise that Apple is trying to completely merge iOS and OS X. They aren't and probably won't.

Yeah, as you say, very unlikely anything challenges intel in the next 2-3 year, minimum.

Unless Apple is looking to throw Mac performance into the relative crapper they'll be on x86 for 2-3 more generations. Intel could screw up in the next 2-3 years but so far they are exactly on track to fend of ARM incursions into what has classical been Intel (and AMD) space.


To me its looking like Intel has a lot more chance at intruding into ARM space than the other way around. Broadwell will be interesting.
 
There is nothing that says the pricing model has to stay constant. It can work if add another zone below (or resurrect one they have used in the past in Power Mac era. ) . It depends upon how many folks are in the $3,500 and up zones. Let's say Mac Pro sales break down is something like :

2,499-2,999 45%
3,000-4,999 35%
5,000-5,999 15%
6000+ 5 %


If Apple switched to Xeon E3 and started off at $1899-1999 they'd add a new zone more targeted at the < 4 core crowd. For example, the $1899-2,499 represented about 35% they aren't that far off the old numbers. If that 1899-3000 market is growing at a faster rate the gap will get filled in a couple of years. If the 1,899-2,499 market is just as big as the 2,499-2999 one there is very little gap between old and new if drop the top end. Lower prices --> higher likely demand. It doesn't have to be the exact same set of people; just total number of product buyers.

Frankly, the "core count" game can filled in with GPGPU cores more cost effectively. There is a super high end performance gap but the workloads the old 4000-5000 workstations can be done if just switch which cores are doing the bulk of the floating point work.

Will there be a very high end gap for x86 centric that Apple doesn't fill? Sure, but it would be just one of many PC market products they don't sell.

That would require an new motherboard and chipset..
 
To me its looking like Intel has a lot more chance at intruding into ARM space than the other way around. Broadwell will be interesting.

Broadwell isn't what is primarily being used to go after ARM. The Atom designs are now on their own cadence/codename track ( Silvermont / Airmont ) with significant resources engaged to follow a yearly tick-tock cadence. That's the primary threat to ARM. Intel methodically throwing updates every year by using overlapping development teams and processes.

Given Intel has already got a cell radio implementation ( Infineon ... used to be radios used by default in iPhones but totally missed the speed of the transition to LTE ) and just recently picked up GPS functionality as the first move by the new CEO (http://allthingsd.com/20130528/intel-makes-its-first-acquisition-since-brian-krzanich-became-ceo/ ) they definitely intend to do battle with ARM. It will be " buy these 2-3 chips (in several more years that will be just 1 chip) from us and you basically have a cellphone" kind of offering ARM will have to compete with.

I don't think that is going to put a huge dent into ARM's presence in smartphones and low end tablets but it will keep them busy defending their home turf as opposed to just allows them free reign to use the cash cow to attack Intel.

ARM is likely to seem some growth into several embedded spaces be significantly blunted though. For example these new home based landline substitute products that are increasingly being pushed and stay plugged in all the time.
 
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