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getyup

macrumors 6502
Jul 2, 2011
294
0
The "major product shift" that they were referring to is the new iPhone.

agreed, I know we're all passionate about macbook air, but I bet if you asked 100 people on the street, less than 10 would even have heard of a macbook air. Remember, 30% of Americans can't even name our vice president, lol
 

thefirstone

macrumors member
Jun 7, 2011
40
0
With respect, that's somewhat silly of you. The product cycle has always been one pear year or longer on the Air, so if you've been waiting since May on a product not due for refresh until October, it's a gamble you've taken.

Yes, it was a calculated risk. Either the new MBA or the MBP will be my first Mac. I want the higher screen resolution in the 13" MBA and hence, I waited.
 

getyup

macrumors 6502
Jul 2, 2011
294
0
My current computer is perfectly usable so I'm not missing out on anything.

As for roulette, can you calculate your odds of winning realistically? :rolleyes:

No, that was my point, it's a game of betting against the odds. 1:36 is bad odds. Your bet that an air would come out outside of the historical cycle was against the odds. Sorry, bad comparison.
 

Krevnik

macrumors 601
Sep 8, 2003
4,101
1,312
With respect, that's somewhat silly of you. The product cycle has always been one pear year or longer on the Air, so if you've been waiting since May on a product not due for refresh until October, it's a gamble you've taken.

The 400+ day gap was the exception. Considering we only have 3 refreshes to date, it is a small sample size, but the gap in time between the last refresh and now is consistent with the first 2 refreshes of the Air. It isn't consistent with the last gap, but that isn't to say that the rumors of an eminent refresh are going against Apple history here.

https://buyersguide.macrumors.com//#MacBook_Air
 

getyup

macrumors 6502
Jul 2, 2011
294
0
The 400+ day gap was the exception. Considering we only have 3 refreshes to date, it is a small sample size, but the gap in time between the last refresh and now is consistent with the first 2 refreshes of the Air. It isn't consistent with the last gap, but that isn't to say that the rumors of an eminent refresh are going against Apple history here.

https://buyersguide.macrumors.com//#MacBook_Air

Well if there's a sample of 1 or 1000, assumption of going against the norm is just that, an assumption.
 

Krevnik

macrumors 601
Sep 8, 2003
4,101
1,312
Well if there's a sample of 1 or 1000, assumption of going against the norm is just that, an assumption.

The norm in this case (as much as you can call it that), is not a 1+ year cycle... it's a ~240 day cycle. The long stretch before last October's refresh was longer than the previous two. That doesn't automatically mean the norm is longer than it was before, as you have to consider that it was bad data.

A launch this week would confirm the norm, not buck it.
 

getyup

macrumors 6502
Jul 2, 2011
294
0
The norm in this case (as much as you can call it that), is not a 1+ year cycle... it's a ~240 day cycle. The long stretch before last October's refresh was longer than the previous two. That doesn't automatically mean the norm is longer than it was before, as you have to consider that it was bad data.

A launch this week would confirm the norm, not buck it.

Okay, we'll just say whatever you want to be the case will be the norm. Forget reality, we'll just live in our own fantasy land and hope it comes true. *rolls eyes*
 

Krevnik

macrumors 601
Sep 8, 2003
4,101
1,312
Okay, we'll just say whatever you want to be the case will be the norm. Forget reality, we'll just live in our own fantasy land and hope it comes true. *rolls eyes*

1st Refresh - 273 days.
2nd Refresh - 237 days.
3rd Refresh - 499 days.

We are currently at 272 days since that last refresh. The 3rd refresh's length is a question mark. It could be bad data, or it could be a sign of lengthening cycles (although not terribly likely that it means we should be seeing 18 month cycles regularly).

Reality seems to say something different than you claim it does. Did you even bother to reference actual numbers before you made your "always at least a year" claim?
 

getyup

macrumors 6502
Jul 2, 2011
294
0
1st Refresh - 273 days.
2nd Refresh - 237 days.
3rd Refresh - 499 days.

We are currently at 272 days since that last refresh. The 3rd refresh's length is a question mark. It could be bad data, or it could be a sign of lengthening cycles (although not terribly likely that it means we should be seeing 18 month cycles regularly).

Reality seems to say something different than you claim it does. Did you even bother to reference actual numbers before you made your "always at least a year" claim?

Huh? Guess disagreeing data is noe bad data lol
 

PaulWog

Suspended
Jun 28, 2011
700
103
1st Refresh - 273 days.
2nd Refresh - 237 days.
3rd Refresh - 499 days.

We are currently at 272 days since that last refresh. The 3rd refresh's length is a question mark. It could be bad data, or it could be a sign of lengthening cycles (although not terribly likely that it means we should be seeing 18 month cycles regularly).

Reality seems to say something different than you claim it does. Did you even bother to reference actual numbers before you made your "always at least a year" claim?

It would make sense for them to release on Sandy Bridge. They can't get away with letting other ultraportable PC's come out while they keep a Core 2 Duo. They'll look like a real joke selling Core 2 Duos for much longer in a notebook which is supposed to be a premium product (basically all of Apple's products are supposed to be premium in their marketplace).

I could see them skipping Ivy Bridge, though, if the integrated graphics isn't any good. They could stick with Sandy Bridge for a while until they find a useful and popular choice for better graphics on the Macbook Air. Quite honestly the processing power will be great on the new Air, so the next refresh after that will have to work on graphics by a fair amount... otherwise more processing power will be rather pointless to be honest (obviously it's never pointless exactly... but to the average consumer, and even to most power users, graphics power needs to complement the processing power).
 

Krevnik

macrumors 601
Sep 8, 2003
4,101
1,312
It would make sense for them to release on Sandy Bridge. They can't get away with letting other ultraportable PC's come out while they keep a Core 2 Duo. They'll look like a real joke selling Core 2 Duos for much longer in a notebook which is supposed to be a premium product (basically all of Apple's products are supposed to be premium in their marketplace).

Releasing on the 320M when they did does kinda shorten the usable selling life of the model for sure. Although I suspect that a refresh now also has the Cinema Display as a factor.

If Apple does intend to release a Thunderbolt-based display soon, then they are going to want to get their laptop line up to date to match it. That means the Air and MacBook (if it sticks around). It's an ugly gap to have a display on sale that only some of your portables can plug into. If the Mini gets a refresh, that'd leave just the Mac Pro without a good way to plug into the new display, which isn't terribly surprising and there are likely limitations there that Apple can't simply make go away (GPU boards).
 

Krevnik

macrumors 601
Sep 8, 2003
4,101
1,312
Huh? Guess disagreeing data is noe bad data lol

The sample size is pretty much too small to make any statistically valid claim about what the 3rd refresh actually means. It may be an outlier, and the deviation from the other two samples tends to hint at that.

But in the end, that doesn't matter when it comes to your claim below:

With respect, that's somewhat silly of you. The product cycle has always been one pear year or longer on the Air, so if you've been waiting since May on a product not due for refresh until October, it's a gamble you've taken.

The samples we do have prove otherwise. And a release this week would correlate with previous data. So would another October release, to be honest (2 of the 4 revisions were released in October). But the raw claim that it cannot be now doesn't have a lot of evidence to back it up except one refresh out of three to date.
 
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