I'd be willing to bet that we see a 'catch up', then Mountain Lion intro, maaaaybe MBP update, then a 'surprise' iOS6 intro.
Why would there be a "surprise" iOS6 intro? It is the overall Apple developer conference. The largest number of applications and developers are on iOS. There is going to be a large segment of the keynote devoted to iOS. Period. That is where the money/revenue, developers, and applications are. It would be a rather dubious presentation structure to 'hide' the largest representative issue till the last 5-6 mins of a presentation. Last quarterly results call Tim Cook drive home the point that it took the Mac 20 years to get to where iPad is now (done in 2) in terms of volume. Apple isn't going to spend a large amount of time on that aspect at WWDC???? They are not going to put 45-60 mins of largely unrelated content in front of that .
A "one more thing" Mac intro would more likely go like this
1. "catch up" (millions and billions ) segment.
2. iOS6 new major features , demos by 3-4 app vendors. (developer's release announced for download)
3. Mountain Lion ( gatekeeper in context of Java/Flashback situation this Spring , some new features ) 3-4 app demos. Announce launch date (probably August something)
4. "one more thing " MBP if there is some ML tie-in ( e.g., "Retina Displays" or USB 3.0 support ... whatever). Essentially, the new Mac is somehow a prop to do yet another ML demo with.
However, I suspect "4." will actually be more iCloud stuff. Apple would show how iOS6 and ML and newer updates to iCloud associated components/apps are an even more compelling option. Between iOS6 , ML , and iCloud and associated demos that is more than enough to fill 70-80 minute presentation. It is also developer specific stuff. Developers shouldn't be limited to new bleeding edge hardware to make better apps. (the number of people who have bleeding edge hardware is relatively small. So the opportunity is small. )
First, iCloud is a significant piece to Apple's strategy (Apple has openly said as much). Second, "mobile me" shuts down in June... they need to make a bigger push to show that the transition is "done". If there are more flushed out iCloud APIs to talk about all the more important to get them into the Developer conference keynote. Demos of how 3rd party apps can integrate with iCloud is far more strategically critical than a 3-5 minute new Mac demo.
No Mac updates at WWDC keynote. Probably because there will be a Mac "announce" on the Tuesday before the show (either 5/29 or more likely 6/5). So the whole "Apple has to announce something Mac" will have evaporated. On Tuesday the 12th they could do another 'press release' drop of some more Macs if they are ready to go. More likely the 19th (or 26th if ML is targeted for late August). Another "press release" news bounce a couple weeks after WWDC would give Apple another round of relatively widespread free publicity.
That being said, perhaps the MBP is significant enough to get it’s own event?
No.
“the future of laptops” can if anything pull that off
Apple already did that when rolled out new Air's at end of "Back to Mac" event. Jobs already announced the future of laptops.
It is
far more important that Apple simply release the Macs when ready than weave them into the WWDC dog and pony show. That is exactly why Apple decoupled Mac updates from major event schedules.