Post-PC era? Not quite

[Young Spade]

I think that we, as a whole, should stop using the term "real work" and instead base our argument on a more proper, precise term.

Just by reading a few posts on this topic, you can plainly see that "real world" doesn't really apply in a sound argument.

Work is work, no matter what it is. Ultimately, it is boiling down to the limitations in software in both programs and usability with iOS.

And the physical limitations of the iPad.

 

[roadbloc]

And the physical limitations of the iPad.

And the practicality of the iPad. The iPad may have the ability to do the same tasks as a PC, but would it really be suitable in a work environment? Especially since many people who have to work at a computer at work don't really need to move around that much, having a ultra portable device would be pointless for the many people in an office job.

What would be the point in buying an iPad + apps + accessories for someone when they won't really active anything more than what they can do on the PC?

 

[Young Spade]

^That's my point.

Wait, are you saying this to make a point or are you agreeing with me? If you're agreeing, then yea, that's a good reason.

Although, I'm sure, in the future, when the iPad is more powerful, we'll see ways to hook it up to a monitor and allow use of the bluetooth keyboard and/or a stand.

That would effectively allow somebody who does work over the internet to do their entire days work with the iPad.

The only thing is, there's the whole other side of the argument that just says, "why not just use a computer in the first place?"

And that's where it leaves us. It's going to vary between users. For me, I would love an iPad 2 but the MBP does everything I want at a good weight and size.

It's all personal. People tend to forget that around here.

 

[roadbloc]

Agreeing/expanding on your point.

 

[Bernard SG]

To OP: the breaking tech-news du jour (HP) should give you an idea of what Post-PC means practically.

The tablet-effect is real.

(Leo Apotheker, HP CEO)

So real that the #1 maker of PC hardware in the world decides to give up on that endeavor.

 

[boss.king]

To OP: the breaking tech-news du jour (HP) should give you an idea of what Post-PC means practically.



So real that the #1 maker of PC hardware in the world decides to give up on that endeavor.

Ummm... they gave up on making tablets too.

 

[Bernard SG]

Ummm... they gave up on making tablets too.

Sure, but the relative importance of PC boxes is infinitely greater than the DOA TouchPad project for HP. It's a very different predicament: PC's are no more a "project" for HP, it's a mature and running operating division.

 

[boss.king]

Sure, but the relative importance of PC boxes is infinitely greater than the DOA TouchPad project for HP. It's a very different predicament: PC's are no more a "project" for HP, it's a mature and running operating division.

I think it's more to do with diminishing profit margins than with there being no demand for computers any more. The computer market is over saturated, many offering the exact same product. Admittedly I haven't read the official report yet, but I really doubt that they can't sell enough because of tablets.

 

[0dev]

I personally find myself using my MacBook more than any other computing device (though my iPhone 4 is at a very close second). It just does things as a proper computer, and that's something an iOS device can't replicate, or rather, it's something Apple won't let it replicate.

 

[Bernard SG]

I think it's more to do with diminishing profit margins than with there being no demand for computers any more. The computer market is over saturated, many offering the exact same product. Admittedly I haven't read the official report yet, but I really doubt that they can't sell enough because of tablets.

It's diminishing profit margins due to fierce competition and the way enterprise market works, that's right, but also stagnating (probably even declining in some markets) sales volumes partly due to the "Tablet-effect" (which, thus far, is essentially an iPad-effect).

It's clear that, at this point, iPad cannot replace a laptop for everyone, but it sure does for some whose computing needs are not too sophisticated and that population, I would bet, represents a large majority of the consumer market.

 

[boss.king]

It's diminishing profit margins due to fierce competition and the way enterprise market works, that's right, but also stagnating (probably even declining in some markets) sales volumes partly due to the "Tablet-effect" (which, thus far, is essentially an iPad-effect).

It's clear that, at this point, iPad cannot replace a laptop for everyone, but it sure does for some whose computing needs are not too sophisticated and that population, I would bet, represents a large majority of the consumer market.

I guess it comes down to how much is tablet is drawing customers from the computer market vs diminishing profits due to other causes. I'm inclined to believe that the winner would be other causes, but I'm sure the tablet has taken a small share of the customers.

I'm curious as to where people will draw the line for what a tablet is. Already I see people claiming that the iPad is good enough with a bluetooth keyboard, but then it's basically a laptop with a different OS. where do you draw the line (or is there even a line? maybe there will just be a point of convergence between the two devices?)

 

[Melrose]

Until they can get the precision of a cursor from the stumpy flesh of the end of your finger, the PC Era will stick around.

Having a mouse-based interface allows for very careful control of things on the screen. I work in the graphics department at a newspaper, and our department is the only one in the building that could not operate solely on tablets. Our sales people have already started using them; heck, even the editor and publisher use one. But graphics, where you need to get stuff pixel perfect? no way.

Tablets need a few things before they can really chip away at the Desktop Computing model: (1) More power; (2) More precision (something akin to the mouse, but not as huge as a finger); (3) Less interface effects; (4) Larger screen.

The problem being, the instant you change one of these for the 'better', you start going backwards to a more Desktop-type form. Make a tablet that uses a stylus or can use an itty bitty mouse? A step 'backward.' Larger screen for graphics people? This eliminates one of the biggest pros of using a tablet: Size. A step 'backward.'

The bottom line is, tablets/slates/pads are designed and used as more or less on-the-go devices; PCs have evolved over the last 20-30 years to become what they are now: Just about perfect for a million different uses (but the question in this scenario is: Did the computer adapt to us, or did we adapt to the computer? In the latter case, can we not just adapt to a Post PC form factor?)

I think the Desktop Era is here to stay; Everyone talks about it changing or tapering out, but it doesn't have to be that way. It's only been with the advent of the iPhone that people became more obsessed with doing multiple things (phone, music, calendar, Social Media, etc) on one pocket device; and now that's crossed over into doing desktop-level tasks on a mobile device as well. Unless we create a Blade Runner, Minority Report-esque level of technology, we'll never pack 3D rendering power into a tablet smaller than my copy of Wired.

 

[0098386]

Looks like FrozenTomato has made another account.

Anyway, I did try, I really did try to write the majority of my next book on the iPad with a Bluetooth keyboard. It was still horribly frustrating. The lack of mouse made document navigation next to impossible. It might just be me, but I feel there is still something to be said for the good old keyboard and mouse way of doing things.

I'm unwilling to end the PC era in my house.

Pretty much the same here but with an iPod Touch for writing a design spec. At the time I was wishing for an iPad instead but... I just switched on my computer instead.

 

[KnightWRX]

Nope, not a real estate agent. Not even in sales as I don't have a nack for it and I'm not much of a people person. But as a customer that has spent countless hours driving around looking at houses, apartments, condos, town homes, etc. multiple times in the past 10 years I recognize how an agent could use something like an iPad to make the less exasperating for clients. Imagine car shopping but you could only look at one car per lot. Would you rather drive around looking at cars one at a time or have the car salesman pull up pictures and info of other cars they are selling so you would only drive to see the ones you thought you would like?

I'd rather have my real-estate agent mail me the MLS files with all the included pictures for the homes she wants to show me so that we don't have to meet everytime she wants to show me a new property. So why would she need an iPad at all when we do meet ? If we do, either I'll have my laptop with me so she can log on to her MLS account, or she'll have her own laptop/computer to do it from.

Let's face it, the iPad is an overpriced card display system. I still don't see the use for tablets. It's mostly just a "me too!" thing. The Post-PC era is not about hardware form factor. The Post-PC era is about software. It's iOS, Android, WebOS, WP7 type OSes people want. zeroconf, low maintenance, simple and limited to their needs. Bring iOS/Android/WebOS/WP7 to laptops (the eeePad Slider or Transformer or things like the Motorola Atrix) and you'll really have what most consumers need.

The iPad is just a cool new gadgety way of showing them that is indeed what they want in a friendly manner (without ripping out the big complicated OS from their computer before they know they don't need it).

 

[Young Spade]

^Mmmm.... you have a very valid argument on the terms you stated, however, there are a lot of things the iPad does that are important but bring convenience to the table

Now I do agree with you on the fact that the iPad is just a simple OS in that it has a simple layout and functionality (I agree and that's why I sold mine last year), however, that's where it shines. It's simple.

Now to me and you, it's probably faster, more efficient, easier, and simpler to just use a computer (personally I use gestures, keyboard commands, and hotkeys to move around and I know I'm nowhere near as fast on an iPad) but for the average consumer, the simplicity is probably a major selling point.

All in all, yea, you're right. Whatever you do on an iPad you can just do faster/better on a computer. However, I think the fact that you an do 90 percent of those things on the iPad very easily is why people love it.

I know I'd rather have it to do video chatting which, some would argue only amounts to skype with the GF (for me anyway it does), but other people who work from home can call clients and offices with the iPad and work from there.

It's all subjective and, if you aren't saving time/energy then yea, it's a toy. However I know there are a lot of people out there who use it for work.

One of the announcers for Formula 1 (the youngest, skinniest guy) uses it now to look up race information and whatnot while they're walking around the track.

Pilots across the US are now using it instead of printed flight manuals. That's saving God knows how many trees a year now.

 

[LethalWolfe]

I'd rather have my real-estate agent mail me the MLS files with all the included pictures for the homes she wants to show me so that we don't have to meet everytime she wants to show me a new property. So why would she need an iPad at all when we do meet ? If we do, either I'll have my laptop with me so she can log on to her MLS account, or she'll have her own laptop/computer to do it from.

There's nothing preventing the agent from sending the MLS files to you. The point isn't to be forced to meet with the agent all the time the point is to help take some of the labor out of shopping for real estate. In my experience well informed agents are privy to properties that haven't officially hit the market yet (so no listing to send) and what if you swing by an open house and start chatting up the agent there? Why is it so wrong to you that a salesperson should have a quick and easy way to pull up sales materials on the spot?

I don't see why people are artificially looking at this as an either/or situation. One is not limited to choosing just a single device, or a single workflow, to try and accomplish every task. Using multiple devices and multiple workflows in tandem gives you options that using just one does not.

Let's face it, the iPad is an overpriced card display system. I still don't see the use for tablets.

I can understand not seeing a personal need for a tablet, I don't have one either, but not being able to see how others use tablets in the workflows is just being willfully ignorant.

It's mostly just a "me too!" thing. The Post-PC era is not about hardware form factor. The Post-PC era is about software. It's iOS, Android, WebOS, WP7 type OSes people want. zeroconf, low maintenance, simple and limited to their needs. Bring iOS/Android/WebOS/WP7 to laptops (the eeePad Slider or Transformer or things like the Motorola Atrix) and you'll really have what most consumers need.

I think it's certainly about hardware form factor. Netbooks, which run traditional OSes, took off because they were compact, inexpensive and gave people the ability to do light computing tasks on the go. Post PC is about mobility and form factor is most certainly a primary concern when making a highly mobile device.


Lethal

 

[KnightWRX]

the point is to help take some of the labor out of shopping for real estate.

I don't see how an iPad accomplishes that frankly. E-mail does a fine job of fixing that problem. I met my agent exactly 5 times during my own shopping, and those 5 times were for on-site visits. All other business we had was conducted via e-mail.

If she had an iPad or not, I couldn't tell nor care one bit, nor would it have it made simpler or more complicated.

I think it's certainly about hardware form factor. Netbooks, which run traditional OSes, took off because they were compact, inexpensive and gave people the ability to do light computing tasks on the go. Post PC is about mobility and form factor is most certainly a primary concern when making a highly mobile device.

Netbooks are laptops. They share the form-factor. We've had this form factor for close to 20 years now (thanks in part to Apple).

Making the laptop a better laptop is not a revolution that ushers in the Post-PC era. It's all about the software. Keep staring blindly at the "New World".

 

[LethalWolfe]

I don't see how an iPad accomplishes that frankly. E-mail does a fine job of fixing that problem. I met my agent exactly 5 times during my own shopping, and those 5 times were for on-site visits. All other business we had was conducted via e-mail.

Ever wondered if other people might have had different experiences than your own?

Netbooks are laptops. They share the form-factor. We've had this form factor for close to 20 years now (thanks in part to Apple).

Netbooks are to laptops what a SMART car is to full sized sedan. Both automobiles? Yes. Both the same form factor? No.

Making the laptop a better laptop is not a revolution that ushers in the Post-PC era. It's all about the software. Keep staring blindly at the "New World".

Who said anything about better laptops being the Post PC revolution? Since you don't think form factor matters for mobile devices I assume this is you.

Lethal

 

[KnightWRX]

Who said anything about better laptops being the Post PC revolution? Since you don't think form factor matters for mobile devices I assume this is you.

Way to ignore my post about making a better laptop. Seriously, my point went either way above your head or you purposefully failed to grasp it. Where did I argue for desktop PCs ? The netbook is as portable as a tablet. What does your incendiary picture even bring to this discussion ? That's not even close to what I was saying or even remotely linked or on-topic to any of my posts. It almost seems you're just trying to piss me off while brushing aside my arguments because you can't actually provide counter points.

As for your real estate agent example : Yes, I do realise some people's experience may be different from my own. However, I do also realise you've failed to present a convincing case as to why the iPad makes it better. I just don't see it. Others who replied to you don't either. The failure is your own. A lot of people just say "it's better with a tablet!" never quite making a point as to why it is better, only that it is. Tablets are just another form-factor, a very limited one. This is not the main draw to the Post-PC era. It's the limited OSes that are the draw. People are tired of high-maintenance software that requires complicated patching, security systems, etc..

So what will your next reply bring ? More less-than-witty incendiary pictures or actual arguments to this discussion ?

Seriously, I thought you own of the better posters, has my judgment failed me ?

 

[neiltc13]

I would actually argue that a netbook is more portable than a tablet, because the clamshell design does a better job of protecting the whole device. Tablets need cases, protectors or sleeves to be safe, even when you put them in a bag.

 

[Tiggs]

Pointless study as we're dealing with a transitory period. Thread title seems misleading to me as well as it doesn't relate to the greater overall shifts that are occurring.

 

[TheSideshow]

Pointless study as we're dealing with a transitory period. Thread title seems misleading to me as well as it doesn't relate to the greater overall shifts that are occurring.

What? This thread is purely that there exists no "Post-PC" era. Maybe in the future, but clearly the iPad and current devices arent the answer in their current state.

 

[Young Spade]

I would actually argue that a netbook is more portable than a tablet, because the clamshell design does a better job of protecting the whole device. Tablets need cases, protectors or sleeves to be safe, even when you put them in a bag.

Um... no? I think you're trying a little too hard to think that through.

If you throw it in a sleeve or use a smart cover, you're good to go. What, are you going to be dropping it on concrete? If not, then you don't have anything to worry about.

The iPad > MBA > MBP in terms of portability. Durability wise it goes the other way. You can't speak in terms of portability then inject random occurrences into the article.

That's like saying the MBP is better than the MBA for a college student because if the student got robbed, the extra 2 pounds of the Pro would weigh down the thief more and allow easier apprehension.

 

[boss.king]

Um... no? I think you're trying a little too hard to think that through.

If you throw it in a sleeve or use a smart cover, you're good to go. What, are you going to be dropping it on concrete? If not, then you don't have anything to worry about.

The iPad > MBA > MBP in terms of portability. Durability wise it goes the other way. You can't speak in terms of portability then inject random occurrences into the article.

That's like saying the MBP is better than the MBA for a college student because if the student got robbed, the extra 2 pounds of the Pro would weigh down the thief more and allow easier apprehension.

I'd have to agree about the netbook being better for portability. The giant glass screen on the front of the iPad/tablet is fairly open to damage, where as a netbook closes up to protect from a lot of damage. Of course, the degree to which the netbook is better would vary from model to model, but on the whole it allows for a more worry-free experience.

 

[*LTD*]

http://allthingsd.com/20110817/tablets-a-minor-threat-to-pcs-for-now/

Image

How will Windows 8's philosophy change this?

We're very much in the transition phase now. We can debate all we like about to what degree we're in the Post-PC era, but to think that it's "business as usual" is fallacious beyond comprehension.

The evidence that has piled up since 2007 (and especially since January 2010) is incontrovertible, and certainly indicates a massive change going on in the industry, initiated by Apple, and led by Apple. Every month, the evidence pile gets higher and the industry is affected even deeper.

Look at what just happened to HP. Look at the pressure on Nintendo to address mobile operating systems (iOS), look at everyone trying to build long-term strategies around tablets and mobile operating systems.

One doesn't even need to post links for proof. The proof is obvious and everywhere, and when a giant like HP acknowledges it, you'd better believe it's for real. Hell, the gaming industry has already acknowledged it. The generic box makers that are in Windows licensing agreements with MS - those that are stuck in the old, classic relationship - are slower to come to terms with reality.

PC sales are stagnant. HP gets the idea. Who's next?

Show us that chart two years from now. You can bet your iPad it'll look a helluva lot different.

As far as Windows 8's philosophy goes, there isn't one. MS is living in their jam to-morrow and jam yesterday - but never jam to-day fantasy land. Their first order of business is to fix their entire strategy with WP7, never mind trying to foist old ideas on new models.

WP7 is gong the way of WebOS.

WP7 phones are already in stores (have been for almost a year) and MS has been steadily losing share with them. If Google gets into hot legal water with Android and manufacturers shy away from the platform (the Moto purchase will help in this) then WP7 might have a chance, though the strategy for it will have to be re-thought and re-evaluated entirely. Because for the time being there's a WebOS situation going on with WP7.

MS had their chance to make an incredible first impression and the whole thing fizzled. And competing with Apple in a segment where Apple has an overwhelming lead in mindshare is usually a losing game, unless you can radically shift your way of thinking to Apple's way of thinking. Most don't have what it takes to do that. You can't out-Apple Apple. You need about 30 years of Apple-like philosophy and values under your belt to achieve it. An ambitious and progressive start-up could do it. Not MS, though. Not under their current leadership. Forget it. You'll need a radical paradigm shift at MS. They aren't really set up for that.

Ballmer needs to GTFO.

Windows 8 won't matter if MS can't build a solid mobile reputation backed by some heavy (and very positive) mindshare. In effect, they'll need to out-Apple Apple. In this new market reality, you've got to be awesome from Day 1.