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flynz4

macrumors 68040
Aug 9, 2009
3,275
133
Portland, OR
Nothing is wrong with my math. You are on the other hand failing to take all the variables into account. If you keep your computer 2 years there will be a new rev out meaning a big price cut on the used market, keeping it for 3 years means its 2 revs old meaning a even bigger price cut. If you want to count that the AC makes it so you can switch after 3 years you need to include the additional variables.

In the three year lifespan of an AC contract... you are essentially claiming the saving of ~$1600 in the ~4 AC contracts that you did not purchase (8-11 month intervals). That is an overrepresentation of your savings. Someone who bought a laptop and kept it 3 years would have only purchased one contract. Someone who kept a laptop for 4 years would have still bought one contract, but would have run the risk of an earlier than planned replacement in the event of a catastrophic failure in the final year.

/Jim
 

TheEmpty

macrumors member
Jul 11, 2011
88
0
NYC
What reason is there to get a new laptop every 8-11 months? I'm buying a refreshed Air on release day and plan to use it for years.
Same here, I have/had an HP laptop and it lasted for maybe two years (or less). Now the screen is flashing and I had to clean the fan. My mother has had a Macbook for over three years. When the fan got dusty or the keyboard got dirty she could take it in with AppleCare and they would clean it or replace the keyboard. Her computer works just as fine as day one, it's a dual core so it's not even that out of date and runs stuff fine.
 

Davidkoh

macrumors 65816
Aug 2, 2008
1,060
19
do you live in a desert? if not.. then you just need to vacuum your place. even a duster would save you the $$. you're actually spending more each year as opposed to saving. it's not like your computer will just die after a year or won't be able to do what it's intended to do. but hey.. you must be some rich dude, so whatever floats your boat

So wait... Being able to spend a few hundred on a computer per year makes someone rich?

In the three year lifespan of an AC contract... you are essentially claiming the saving of ~$1600 in the ~4 AC contracts that you did not purchase (8-11 month intervals). That is an overrepresentation of your savings. Someone who bought a laptop and kept it 3 years would have only purchased one contract. Someone who kept a laptop for 4 years would have still bought one contract, but would have run the risk of an earlier than planned replacement in the event of a catastrophic failure in the final year.

/Jim

I never claimed to do a long term analysis, I only presented the cost of buying a new one every year. I have done a long term analysis with expected resale values after 1,2,3 years and the cost of it. If you want to compare it in the long run you need the expected resale values amongst other parameters.
 

JusChexin

macrumors member
May 28, 2009
62
0
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radiohead14 said:
That's a good question about reselling your macbook. Which is the best medium for selling?

craigslist. have had good experiences selling and buying there as opposed to ebay. i like the person to person dealing.

I theoretically like the idea of person to person dealing, but with a highly popular and expensive item like a MacBook, do you worry about unsavory types, scammers, check-bouncers meeting you in person? I've never sold through Craigslist, but I know Apple products are highly desirable to be stolen and resold etc, so I'd just worry selling through that medium? Or is it not a problem?
 

mrklaw

macrumors 68030
Jan 29, 2008
2,749
1,026
In the three year lifespan of an AC contract... you are essentially claiming the saving of ~$1600 in the ~4 AC contracts that you did not purchase (8-11 month intervals). That is an overrepresentation of your savings. Someone who bought a laptop and kept it 3 years would have only purchased one contract. Someone who kept a laptop for 4 years would have still bought one contract, but would have run the risk of an earlier than planned replacement in the event of a catastrophic failure in the final year.

/Jim

I think you're misunderstanding the complex equations involved. In the important but often confusing branch of mathematics known as 'man maths', numbers are merely metaphors representing man's desires and whims. They can be arranged in any way that makes the end result justify a purchase of shiny new toys.
 

radiohead14

macrumors 6502a
Nov 6, 2008
873
42
nyc
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I theoretically like the idea of person to person dealing, but with a highly popular and expensive item like a MacBook, do you worry about unsavory types, scammers, check-bouncers meeting you in person? I've never sold through Craigslist, but I know Apple products are highly desirable to be stolen and resold etc, so I'd just worry selling through that medium? Or is it not a problem?

no, i always state "cash only and price firm" on the post, and don't even bother meeting me if the buyer is planning to try and bargain on the price. i always meet the buyer (or seller) at a public place as well like a coffee shop. never had a problem this way. if you want, ask a friend to go with you if you feel uncomfortable going by yourself. never had a payment problem through in-person dealings, and i find it more convenient than ebay.
 

Jessica Lares

macrumors G3
Oct 31, 2009
9,612
1,057
Near Dallas, Texas, USA
So wait... Being able to spend a few hundred on a computer per year makes someone rich?



I never claimed to do a long term analysis, I only presented the cost of buying a new one every year. I have done a long term analysis with expected resale values after 1,2,3 years and the cost of it. If you want to compare it in the long run you need the expected resale values amongst other parameters.

Buying a new computer every year makes no sense. And what's killing your idea is all that tax you're wasting, which is like $100 depending on where you live. Not to mention the gas, packaging, etc it takes for you to get them all to the next owner.

And you have to remember that at any time, Apple can just go, "Hey, no more MacBooks EVER! iPad 5 $500, run OS 10.9 Wildcat and Windows 10!" What's going to happen then? Or if the prices go down really, really low?
 

JusChexin

macrumors member
May 28, 2009
62
0
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radiohead14 said:
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I theoretically like the idea of person to person dealing, but with a highly popular and expensive item like a MacBook, do you worry about unsavory types, scammers, check-bouncers meeting you in person? I've never sold through Craigslist, but I know Apple products are highly desirable to be stolen and resold etc, so I'd just worry selling through that medium? Or is it not a problem?

no, i always state "cash only and price firm" on the post, and don't even bother meeting me if the buyer is planning to try and bargain on the price. i always meet the buyer (or seller) at a public place as well like a coffee shop. never had a problem this way. if you want, ask a friend to go with you if you feel uncomfortable going by yourself. never had a payment problem through in-person dealings, and i find it more convenient than ebay.

Nice! Thanks for the advice! I'll definitely have to try that 8-12ish months after this Sandy Bridge MacBook finally comes out! (beats holding on to the same laptop for 4 years -- I love my trusty white early 2007 MacBook, but I'm ready to move on) :)
 

haushinka

macrumors newbie
Aug 10, 2009
22
0
In the three year lifespan of an AC contract... you are essentially claiming the saving of ~$1600 in the ~4 AC contracts that you did not purchase (8-11 month intervals). That is an overrepresentation of your savings. Someone who bought a laptop and kept it 3 years would have only purchased one contract. Someone who kept a laptop for 4 years would have still bought one contract, but would have run the risk of an earlier than planned replacement in the event of a catastrophic failure in the final year.

/Jim

i gather he's from sg. don't try to tell a sg'ean his math is wrong. he'd be butt-hurt.
 

da3dl3us

macrumors member
Jul 27, 2010
69
0
no, i always state "cash only and price firm" on the post, and don't even bother meeting me if the buyer is planning to try and bargain on the price. i always meet the buyer (or seller) at a public place as well like a coffee shop. never had a problem this way. if you want, ask a friend to go with you if you feel uncomfortable going by yourself. never had a payment problem through in-person dealings, and i find it more convenient than ebay.

Great. Thanks for the advice!
 

Davidkoh

macrumors 65816
Aug 2, 2008
1,060
19
Buying a new computer every year makes no sense. And what's killing your idea is all that tax you're wasting, which is like $100 depending on where you live. Not to mention the gas, packaging, etc it takes for you to get them all to the next owner.

I have incorporated tax in my equation. And I dont ship any of my sales, they come and pick them up.

And you have to remember that at any time, Apple can just go, "Hey, no more MacBooks EVER! iPad 5 $500, run OS 10.9 Wildcat and Windows 10!" What's going to happen then? Or if the prices go down really, really low?

That's a risk yeah, but have not happened yet for all the years I've done this.

Of course the used market varies from country to country, but where I live it is only a little bit more expensive to switch computer every year then it would be to get AC and keep it for 3-4 years. This is if you take resale value into account. I really wouldn't care anyhow, it's just money, I value my satisfaction higher then money.
 

flynz4

macrumors 68040
Aug 9, 2009
3,275
133
Portland, OR
I think you're misunderstanding the complex equations involved. In the important but often confusing branch of mathematics known as 'man maths', numbers are merely metaphors representing man's desires and whims. They can be arranged in any way that makes the end result justify a purchase of shiny new toys.

Damn... five years of calculus and advanced mathematics down the drain. LOL

/Jim
 

KillerTree

macrumors regular
Jul 27, 2008
242
201
I have incorporated tax in my equation. And I dont ship any of my sales, they come and pick them up.



That's a risk yeah, but have not happened yet for all the years I've done this.

Of course the used market varies from country to country, but where I live it is only a little bit more expensive to switch computer every year then it would be to get AC and keep it for 3-4 years. This is if you take resale value into account. I really wouldn't care anyhow, it's just money, I value my satisfaction higher then money.
You're still wasting a lot of money.
 

seepel

macrumors 6502
Dec 22, 2009
471
1
You're still wasting a lot of money.

I don't see how this is true.. Let's just take a quick example. 11" Ultimate. New is $1400. The used market looks like it may be about $900 as a quick lowball estimate.

So in one scenario you use this computer for 3 years and get a new one. You're essentially spending $1400 twice in 3 years so that's $2800.

In another scenario you upgrade three times at about a $500 dollar loss each year so in three years you spend $1400 + $500 x 3 so thats $2900.

So as a quick estimate it costs about the same to upgrade every year vs. use it for 3 years. And of course you can argue that you can use it for more than 3 years, or that you can sell it for more value, etc. It can bend both ways, so I don't think you can say for sure that you are wasting money one way or the other until you've already gone ahead and done it.
 

flynz4

macrumors 68040
Aug 9, 2009
3,275
133
Portland, OR
I don't see how this is true.. Let's just take a quick example. 11" Ultimate. New is $1400. The used market looks like it may be about $900 as a quick lowball estimate.

So in one scenario you use this computer for 3 years and get a new one. You're essentially spending $1400 twice in 3 years so that's $2800.

In another scenario you upgrade three times at about a $500 dollar loss each year so in three years you spend $1400 + $500 x 3 so thats $2900.

So as a quick estimate it costs about the same to upgrade every year vs. use it for 3 years. And of course you can argue that you can use it for more than 3 years, or that you can sell it for more value, etc. It can bend both ways, so I don't think you can say for sure that you are wasting money one way or the other until you've already gone ahead and done it.

Regarding the bolded section above... you are not buying a laptop twice in 3 years... You are buying one twice in 6 years. Each of your two purchases has a 3 year useful life. You must amortize each purchase over its useful life.

If you were to upgrade your computer every year... over the same six year period... you would buy 6 laptops.

Using your pricing example... replacing a laptop every 3 years would cost $2800 over the six year period... or $466/year. You would have an average of 1.5 year old technology.

Using your estimate of $1400 + (5 X 500) would be $3900 or $650/year... but you would have an average of 1/2 year old technology (essentially as new as possible given a 1 year product refresh cycle).

/Jim
 
Last edited:

seepel

macrumors 6502
Dec 22, 2009
471
1
Regarding the bolded section above... you are not buying a laptop twice in 3 years... You are buying one twice in 6 years. Each of your two purchases has a 3 year useful life. You must amortize each purchase over its useful life.

If you were to upgrade your computer every year... over the same six year period... you would buy 6 laptops.

Using your pricing example... replacing a laptop every 3 years would cost $2800 over the six year period... or $466/year. You would have an average of 1.5 year old technology.

Using your estimate of $1400 + (5 X 500) would be $3900 or $650/year... but you would have an average of 1/2 year old technology (essentially as new as possible given a 1 year product refresh cycle).

/Jim

You're right, I was hasty in my estimate, none the less $200 extra per year isnt that unreasonable. The point still stands that this upgrade path isn't totally crazy.
 

Davidkoh

macrumors 65816
Aug 2, 2008
1,060
19
Regarding the bolded section above... you are not buying a laptop twice in 3 years... You are buying one twice in 6 years. Each of your two purchases has a 3 year useful life. You must amortize each purchase over its useful life.

If you were to upgrade your computer every year... over the same six year period... you would buy 6 laptops.

Using your pricing example... replacing a laptop every 3 years would cost $2800 over the six year period... or $466/year. You would have an average of 1.5 year old technology.

Using your estimate of $1400 + (5 X 500) would be $3900 or $650/year... but you would have an average of 1/2 year old technology (essentially as new as possible given a 1 year product refresh cycle).

/Jim

Thank you for proving my point, there is a small difference in price per year. Your calculations are not complete though (forgetting parameters), for them to compare you need to add the $249 Apple Care plan to each of the 3 year laptops. Which is another $83/year. Now we're down to a $100 difference per year between the 2 options. But we got another parameter we have not taken into account, the resale value of the 3 year laptop. This is gonna make the difference bigger, But I doubt you will get more than say $500 for a 3 year old laptop, so thats another $167 difference per year.

So with rough estimates the difference would be around $267 per year in getting a new one compared to keeping your for 3 years. Which as I stated is a small difference.


You're still wasting a lot of money.

As seen by the rough calculations we're looking at $200-$300 extra per year. I would not call that "a lot of money".
 

striker33

macrumors 65816
Aug 6, 2010
1,098
2
do you think the airs will even get the i5-i7?

If the Air's were fitted with i3's then no one would buy them apart from your usual "OMG MAC IZ SHINEH!!1?!!" group.

So yeah, the Air's will have i5/i7 across the board.
 
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